Touring plans crowd tracker jump - Nov/Dec 2016

[SBWB48]

Thank you- I admit to not being very proficient at the FP+ system, nor have I really searched the forums to see if it was something that could be done. When I saw I couldn't with the modify button on the app, I just assumed that I couldn't. Thank you for the heads up on that!

I actually meant "actually" instead of "already", so that came off slightly wrong , but just wanted to give credit where it's due cause @hiroMYhero and others are a great resource. I thought I had the system figured out on every level until I stopped by the FP section before my FP date earlier this week and definitely picked up a few great tips!

 

[Nascia]

I'm not really surprised to see the jump but am a little nervous. We decided on a late November/ early December trip a few weeks ago and were shut out of most of the deluxe resorts and DVC for our dates. We ended up getting one of the last 2 bedroom units available at Bonnet Creek, with all of their 3 and 4 bedroom units being sold out as well. My mom, who's not in the best of health, is joining us. Was hoping for some lighter crowds should she need an ECV.

ADRs were also hard to come by, even though we split into 2 and 4 person groups for them. Airfare and the room is already paid in full so changing dates is not really option now.

 

[coasternut22]

My January 23, 2017 Hollywood Studios day went from a 5 to a 7. Probably one of the only 7s in my trip that week. This similar Monday in January 2016 was EasyWDW's most recommended park so that's why I picked it for 2017. In a vacuum, this would seem strange. But it turns out, MK closes at 6pm for a private party which means those staying out late are forced to the other parks. Even more for so for HS if AK doesn't have evening hours. I suppose this is the kind of things TP are taking into consideration with their updates.

 

[gigem_aggies]

All of our days next week jumped from 7s to 9s (and even a 10)! I'm just sticking to our plans, going with the flow, and smiling because we're going to Disney.

 

[Evoga]

On another forum it was posted that room bookings have shot up from fall onwards and has taken Disney by surprise.

 

[jpwest]

I love TP, but my one huge gripe with them is how they display historical crowds: they show what they predicted for that day, not what they actually recorded for that day.

If you go to their Crowd Calendar and look at dates in November 2015, for example:
Thursday, November 12 2015 shows levels of 4/10 overall, 4/10 at MK, 4/10 at EP, 5/10 at HS and 5/10 at AK.
But if you click on that date, you can see what actually happened: 7/10 overall, 6/10 at MK, 7/10 at EP, 8/10 at HS and 6/10 at AK.

Showing us what they predicted for that date is of no value - especially since in this case they were way off. I can't figure out why they haven't changed this.

 

[ArielSRL]

I am watching dates in June 2017 and I got an email too but our numbers went down. Like 5s and 6s for the first week of June. I'm a little unsure about that as we just went this past June and it was fairly busy!

 

[ConnecticutNonna]

I love TP, but my one huge gripe with them is how they display historical crowds: they show what they predicted for that day, not what they actually recorded for that day.

If you go to their Crowd Calendar and look at dates in November 2015, for example:
Thursday, November 12 2015 shows levels of 4/10 overall, 4/10 at MK, 4/10 at EP, 5/10 at HS and 5/10 at AK.
But if you click on that date, you can see what actually happened: 7/10 overall, 6/10 at MK, 7/10 at EP, 8/10 at HS and 6/10 at AK.

Showing us what they predicted for that date is of no value - especially since in this case they were way off. I can't figure out why they haven't changed this.

I think they did, hence the increased numbers on the cc...
I agree with @Evoga, I think bookings are waaaaay up!

 

[jpwest]

I think they did, hence the increased numbers on the cc...

I'm talking about the historical crowd calendar, not the forecast.

 

[cel_disney]

Our Columbus Day weekend (Oct 5-11) dates went up as well...the part I can't really figure out is that several months ago, the numbers were high like they are predicted to be now, but dropped significantly (seriously - there were 2s and 4s! On a holiday weekend?!) and are now back up.

I am going to revisit what Josh has to say on these as well - our FP window is next week so I am going to try to make some smart decisions...we have APs and have been plenty of times this year so we don't have too much that we HAVE to do which will atleast mean we can escape to the pool without guilt!

 

[ariane37]

Not familiar with Thanksgiving week and not surprised at the 10s most days, my question is based on experience and history can I expect mostly 8am (even 7am) park openings that week or is that typically for Christmas only?

Last year during Thanksgiving week there were 8am openings most days with the exception of EPCOT, which was always 9 unless they had a.m. EMH. There were also a few 7am openings such as at HS the Monday before Thanksgiving (which is the only exact one I remember) but mostly 8am's.

Keep in mind many of these earlier openings weren't announced/changed until a couple weeks beforehand.

 

[DisneyFive]

I love TP, but my one huge gripe with them is how they display historical crowds: they show what they predicted for that day, not what they actually recorded for that day.

If you go to their Crowd Calendar and look at dates in November 2015, for example:
Thursday, November 12 2015 shows levels of 4/10 overall, 4/10 at MK, 4/10 at EP, 5/10 at HS and 5/10 at AK.
But if you click on that date, you can see what actually happened: 7/10 overall, 6/10 at MK, 7/10 at EP, 8/10 at HS and 6/10 at AK.

Showing us what they predicted for that date is of no value - especially since in this case they were way off. I can't figure out why they haven't changed this.

This bugs me too. Looking back at historical crowd summaries, it should show the actual instead of having to click into the specific day.

Dan

 

[Duckiedee]

Bummer seems like all of our predicted four, five, six crowd levels in August went to eights and nines!

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Touring Plans isn't the only one to change how they calculate their crowd calendar.

WDW Prep School completely changed how they are doing theirs. They went to using the School Year for expected crowds starting August 2016.

Here's their explanation:

"I've got a chart of predicted crowd times based on school calendars of many of the biggest districts, holidays, cheerleading competitions, runDisney races, and years of experience being in the parks at all times of year."

"I used to do crowd calendars for an entire calendar year at a time because the end of the year was so easy to predict, but with fall breaks and new runDisney events, it's not so simple anymore. Because of that, we're switching to a school calendar to increase the accuracy of the predictions."

 

[ELSA711]

Last year during Thanksgiving week there were 8am openings most days with the exception of EPCOT, which was always 9 unless they had a.m. EMH. There were also a few 7am openings such as at HS the Monday before Thanksgiving (which is the only exact one I remember) but mostly 8am's.

Keep in mind many of these earlier openings weren't announced/changed until a couple weeks beforehand.

Thanks! I have a few in park late breakfast slots I am hoping to keep after 2hrs or so of touring. I am cool with last minute changes

 

[Shanti]

Their predictions have changed dramatically on expected crowds for example on 28th November the crowds at Epcot have jumped from a 1 to a 5.

No longer is my week looking like 1-4 crowds with the occasional 6 (MK on a non party night with evening EMH). Now it is mostly 5+..... Even got a 9 that week now.

I can't imagine how they could reasonably have put a "1" for any week at Disney World anymore, let alone during the uber-popular fall holiday season. "1" crowd levels no longer exist at Disney. I'm glad TP has updated their predictions to something plausible.

 

[GaryDis]

I can't imagine how they could reasonably have put a "1" for any week at Disney World anymore, let alone during the uber-popular fall holiday season. "1" crowd levels no longer exist at Disney. I'm glad TP has updated their predictions to something plausible.

I thought Touring Plans always tried to keep things relative, fitting into a 1-10 scale. Otherwise they'd have to report some attractions as 12 or more.

In other words, their intent always was that 1 mean the shortest wait times of the current year, not that a 1 in 2016 be the same waits as a 1 in 2006 or 1996.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I think the problem is that people don't understand the scale, so if they have a 45 minute wait at 7DMT (which is, like, always) but it said Crowd Level 2, they're all AAAAUIGH when really: Look, 7DMT is never walk-on midday ever.

 

[thetallone101]

I'm going Dec 1-11 and it went from a 1-4 crowd to 4-8

 

[FortForever]

I got the email as well, and I'm not a happy camper. We are going the week of Dec. 5th, for my youngest grandson's bday. Every single day we are going to be there, the parks jumped substantially. We had a couple of days of 2 and 3 at MK and now are 7, 8, and 9's. I'm undecided as to how to proceed. I've trusted Touring Plans for well over a decade and have never had this happen before. I don't know what to think.