DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
- Messages
- 10,345
37 Days to Go (Change is good. Yeah, but it's not easy.)

Date - Day - Scheduled Workout (Intervals within desired pace, Strength +/- 5 sec, everything else +/- 10 sec)
11/23/16 - W - OFF
11/24/16 - R - 2 miles @ 9:47 min/mile + 8 miles @ 7:33 min/mile + 2 miles @ 9:47 min/mile
11/25/16 - F - 7 miles @ 9:01 or slower min/mile
11/26/16 - Sat - 8 miles @ 8:22 or slower min/mile
11/27/16 - Sun - 11 miles @ 8:13 min/mile
11/28/16 - M - 7 miles @ 9:01 or slower min/mile
11/29/16 - T - 2 miles @ 9:47 min/mile + 2 x 3 mile @ 7:05 min/mile w/ 1 mile RI + 2 miles @ 9:47 min/mile
Total mileage = 56 miles
Number of intervals within pace = ?/? (?%) *I'd say 100% based on "effort"
These times are a changing. When I started this training plan roughly 6 weeks ago I didn't really know where I was at. Was I injured? Was I still able to run? What was the mystery of my leg? I settled on a training plan to balance where I thought I was with getting better. If I had to back off, then so be it. When I set this training plan up, I would have placed the odds of how I am currently feeling at about 5% or less. So this past week, I just let me be me. I know what each of these runs "feel" like. I've been doing it for 1.5 years this way. So I know what EA or EB or Long run or Marathon Tempo feels like. So rather than focus on the pace, I decided to go essentially blind the whole week. If I felt good, then run fast. If I felt slow, then run slow. Everything effort wise matched what I believe was the appropriate pace for that day. Especially since now that almost every run is in the dark I don't spend much time checking my pace between miles. It's like a Ronco...

So, marathon tempo day was on Thanksgiving. As I posted earlier in the week, it went pretty well. Solid pace with no fade. Solid HR with no fade. HR equal both at the beginning and end of the run during WU/CD. Cadence and GCT continued to show me getting stronger and more efficient. And with all that I ran a 7:23 min/mile average instead of a 7:33 min/mile average. It was too fast, but the effort was right. And the HR matched historical marathon effort data (152.1 vs 153) to suggest that it was an appropriate pace. The question afterwards was is this just a single good day or a sign of really getting better? The other thing I noticed was the HR monitor on my chest was starting to give me an abrasion again. Since it took several months for the last abrasion to disappear I decided it was time to retire the chest strap HR monitor.
I had Black Friday off, but Steph didn't. So it was an early morning run for me. Up at 5:00am and out the door at 5:30am. Nothing to note. Average pace was 8:59 min/mile. My wife and I did some Black Friday shopping before her work and then I dropped her off. Before we left each other, it was the decision that I could get the Garmin 235 (with optical HR monitor) if Fleet Feet had it for $250 with the coupons ($70) to make the effective price $180. I got the last one after they had been open for roughly an hour. Huzzah! It wasn't my first choice in color (Force Yellow), but honestly the color doesn't mean much to me.
Saturday was the first day with the new Garmin 235. It was nice to have a confirmation from sleeping with it that A) I do indeed get a lot of "deep sleep" and B) my resting HR is 45. The run went well. Another early morning because my wife worked again. So up at 5:45 and running by 6:15. The pace was again a tad quick (8:27 min/mile) but felt like EB. The HR was a solid 136. After the run was a gorge on college football. Between the OSU v Michigan game, and then the WI v Minn game it was a blast. My HR got up to 149 during the OSU v MI game and 138 during the WI v Minn game, but not for any extended period of time. Glad Bucky could pull out a 13th straight victory. Fun fact the rivalry is now tied at 59-59-1. This is the first time it has been tied since 1901. Wisconsin has never led the series... Until 2017....?!?!?
Sunday was another early day. Up at 5:45 and out the door at 6:30. My wife worked again. I could tell almost instantly this was going to be a different kind of day (in a good way). When I reached my water bottle drop off spot, I was already at a 9:19 min/mile. Which is much quicker than normal. When I hit the first mile marker I was at 8:39. Then the second was 7:55. Now in my last few long runs I haven't been getting down to sub 8 quite so quickly. So either this was going to be a trend or I went out way too fast. Then 7:52, 8:01, 7:43, 7:45, 7:48, 7:45, 7:48, 7:43, 7:49. Not bad... Not bad at all... So then the question post-run was did I push it too hard? Well I can use my HR as an indicator based on historical data. My HR from the last two long runs were 145 (8:01) and 138 (8:02). This run was 142 (7:48). So looks like the HR was in line. My effort was in line. No drift, no fade, looks like it was an appropriate workout. Seems like a trend is developing...
Monday was not an ideal running night. Weather Underground said it was currently 45, raining, and no wind. I took that and went with it. So I dressed in a singlet and shorts (my above 40 outfit). In reality, it was 45, raining, with 10-20 mph wind. Thus, with the cold, windy, rain it was not a pleasant run. I should have worn a jacket... Oh well... Beyond being cold and wet throughout the entire run, it went well. Too fast at a 8:41 min/mile but the effort felt like EA. And the HR was in an appropriate area for an easy run (130). So everything seemed in line with the type of workout I intended on doing.
Tuesday was a repeat 2 x 3 miles at HM strength. Being the week of blind, I wasn't quite sure what to expect. But the weather was PERFECT. About 40, no wind, night, just beautiful. So I knew it could be another special day. So how did it go.... well... let's just say.... BOOM!
So a NEW MILE PR!!! At a 6:38 min/mile (Strava rounded)! And a 3rd fastest mile ever at 6:47. What the what?!?! And with that the average was 6:53 instead of the scheduled 7:05. Crazy enough the HR for the first three miles was 157, 161, and 160 whereas the 2nd 3 mile interval was 156, 155, and 157. So for the 3rd straight HM strength week the 2nd half of the workout's intervals had a lower HR than the first intervals. This is an interesting trend developing and I'm not sure what to make of it right now. But regardless, this is a DOMINANT run.
So remember this:
I said that last week about my HR graph. Well that "far off outlier" has some friends as the graph continues to shift to faster and faster times.
Just look how the yellow squares continue to shift down and to the left at similar HRs or paces. Just keep getting better.
So how about the current predictor then?
11/20-11/29
Mile - 5:41
5k - 19:21
10k - 40:29
HM - 1:28:26
M - 3:09:50
Now here's the interesting part. What if I take an EA of 8:41 and a LR of 7:46 (roughly the last 7 miles of the 11 mile LR)? What do they look like in my completing unrelated pacing calculator?

So let this soak in. My HR chart is based on my HR relative to effort I believe to be equivalent to paces. My effort in paces gives me the following "blind" idea on my pacing. That's to say these two systems are related but approach the answer in two different ways. One is HR v Pace and the other is Pure blind effort. And yet we get the following comparison...
5K - 19:21 vs 19:28
10K - 40:29 vs 40:34
HM - 1:28:26 vs 1:29:32
M - 3:09:50 vs 3:06:54
That's actually pretty cool how close those two prediction models are based on effort or HR. So let's look to Dopey again...
My original projections at the beginning of training 6 weeks ago:

Versus where I believe I am now:
The catch is the values used to make the 2015 and 2016 predictors for Dopey where with actual October marathon times. Is it fair to use predicted fitness? Is it fair to use fitness as of 11/29 and not October? Hard to say. It's a relatively large window that I may fall for my times:
5k = 19:36 - 21:29
10k = 38:58 - 44:15
HM = 1:32:19 - 1:42:19
M = 3:11:47 - 3:39:16
Goofy = 4:45:53 - 5:20:54
Dopey = 5:44:37 - 6:26:37
It's going to be fun to see which of these 8 current models comes the closest to predicting Dopey 2017. Which brings me to this. Since everything is going well again, and I'm feeling better than ever. I will likely have another prediction contest for Dopey 2017. I wasn't planning on doing one. But seeing all of these possible scenarios it would be fun to see what other people come up with. I'm thinking predict all 6 event times. Get points for closest predictions based on number of entrants. And double points for Dopey predictions. Don't worry about making any guesses now. I'll probably open up the window come around taper time.
Only...
1 HM Tempo
2 Long Runs
3 HM Strength
4 Marathon Tempos
remaining until Dopey day! It'll be here before I know it.
PS - Hooray for Post #1000!!!! Thanks for following along everyone. It means a lot.

Date - Day - Scheduled Workout (Intervals within desired pace, Strength +/- 5 sec, everything else +/- 10 sec)
11/23/16 - W - OFF
11/24/16 - R - 2 miles @ 9:47 min/mile + 8 miles @ 7:33 min/mile + 2 miles @ 9:47 min/mile
11/25/16 - F - 7 miles @ 9:01 or slower min/mile
11/26/16 - Sat - 8 miles @ 8:22 or slower min/mile
11/27/16 - Sun - 11 miles @ 8:13 min/mile
11/28/16 - M - 7 miles @ 9:01 or slower min/mile
11/29/16 - T - 2 miles @ 9:47 min/mile + 2 x 3 mile @ 7:05 min/mile w/ 1 mile RI + 2 miles @ 9:47 min/mile
Total mileage = 56 miles
Number of intervals within pace = ?/? (?%) *I'd say 100% based on "effort"
These times are a changing. When I started this training plan roughly 6 weeks ago I didn't really know where I was at. Was I injured? Was I still able to run? What was the mystery of my leg? I settled on a training plan to balance where I thought I was with getting better. If I had to back off, then so be it. When I set this training plan up, I would have placed the odds of how I am currently feeling at about 5% or less. So this past week, I just let me be me. I know what each of these runs "feel" like. I've been doing it for 1.5 years this way. So I know what EA or EB or Long run or Marathon Tempo feels like. So rather than focus on the pace, I decided to go essentially blind the whole week. If I felt good, then run fast. If I felt slow, then run slow. Everything effort wise matched what I believe was the appropriate pace for that day. Especially since now that almost every run is in the dark I don't spend much time checking my pace between miles. It's like a Ronco...

So, marathon tempo day was on Thanksgiving. As I posted earlier in the week, it went pretty well. Solid pace with no fade. Solid HR with no fade. HR equal both at the beginning and end of the run during WU/CD. Cadence and GCT continued to show me getting stronger and more efficient. And with all that I ran a 7:23 min/mile average instead of a 7:33 min/mile average. It was too fast, but the effort was right. And the HR matched historical marathon effort data (152.1 vs 153) to suggest that it was an appropriate pace. The question afterwards was is this just a single good day or a sign of really getting better? The other thing I noticed was the HR monitor on my chest was starting to give me an abrasion again. Since it took several months for the last abrasion to disappear I decided it was time to retire the chest strap HR monitor.
I had Black Friday off, but Steph didn't. So it was an early morning run for me. Up at 5:00am and out the door at 5:30am. Nothing to note. Average pace was 8:59 min/mile. My wife and I did some Black Friday shopping before her work and then I dropped her off. Before we left each other, it was the decision that I could get the Garmin 235 (with optical HR monitor) if Fleet Feet had it for $250 with the coupons ($70) to make the effective price $180. I got the last one after they had been open for roughly an hour. Huzzah! It wasn't my first choice in color (Force Yellow), but honestly the color doesn't mean much to me.
Saturday was the first day with the new Garmin 235. It was nice to have a confirmation from sleeping with it that A) I do indeed get a lot of "deep sleep" and B) my resting HR is 45. The run went well. Another early morning because my wife worked again. So up at 5:45 and running by 6:15. The pace was again a tad quick (8:27 min/mile) but felt like EB. The HR was a solid 136. After the run was a gorge on college football. Between the OSU v Michigan game, and then the WI v Minn game it was a blast. My HR got up to 149 during the OSU v MI game and 138 during the WI v Minn game, but not for any extended period of time. Glad Bucky could pull out a 13th straight victory. Fun fact the rivalry is now tied at 59-59-1. This is the first time it has been tied since 1901. Wisconsin has never led the series... Until 2017....?!?!?
Sunday was another early day. Up at 5:45 and out the door at 6:30. My wife worked again. I could tell almost instantly this was going to be a different kind of day (in a good way). When I reached my water bottle drop off spot, I was already at a 9:19 min/mile. Which is much quicker than normal. When I hit the first mile marker I was at 8:39. Then the second was 7:55. Now in my last few long runs I haven't been getting down to sub 8 quite so quickly. So either this was going to be a trend or I went out way too fast. Then 7:52, 8:01, 7:43, 7:45, 7:48, 7:45, 7:48, 7:43, 7:49. Not bad... Not bad at all... So then the question post-run was did I push it too hard? Well I can use my HR as an indicator based on historical data. My HR from the last two long runs were 145 (8:01) and 138 (8:02). This run was 142 (7:48). So looks like the HR was in line. My effort was in line. No drift, no fade, looks like it was an appropriate workout. Seems like a trend is developing...
Monday was not an ideal running night. Weather Underground said it was currently 45, raining, and no wind. I took that and went with it. So I dressed in a singlet and shorts (my above 40 outfit). In reality, it was 45, raining, with 10-20 mph wind. Thus, with the cold, windy, rain it was not a pleasant run. I should have worn a jacket... Oh well... Beyond being cold and wet throughout the entire run, it went well. Too fast at a 8:41 min/mile but the effort felt like EA. And the HR was in an appropriate area for an easy run (130). So everything seemed in line with the type of workout I intended on doing.
Tuesday was a repeat 2 x 3 miles at HM strength. Being the week of blind, I wasn't quite sure what to expect. But the weather was PERFECT. About 40, no wind, night, just beautiful. So I knew it could be another special day. So how did it go.... well... let's just say.... BOOM!

So a NEW MILE PR!!! At a 6:38 min/mile (Strava rounded)! And a 3rd fastest mile ever at 6:47. What the what?!?! And with that the average was 6:53 instead of the scheduled 7:05. Crazy enough the HR for the first three miles was 157, 161, and 160 whereas the 2nd 3 mile interval was 156, 155, and 157. So for the 3rd straight HM strength week the 2nd half of the workout's intervals had a lower HR than the first intervals. This is an interesting trend developing and I'm not sure what to make of it right now. But regardless, this is a DOMINANT run.
So remember this:
So in two short weeks, my HR prediction calculator has moved my marathon time from 3:20 to 3:12. A predicted 8 min improvement. I venture to guess that this improvement will start to slow and that I won't see nearly the dramatic jump in another two weeks of training. That far off outlier in the yellow boxes at 8:02 and 138 is Sunday's long run. So if the trend continues you can already see the line is starting to shift again. Nonetheless, it is an interesting improvement to monitor.
I said that last week about my HR graph. Well that "far off outlier" has some friends as the graph continues to shift to faster and faster times.

Just look how the yellow squares continue to shift down and to the left at similar HRs or paces. Just keep getting better.
So how about the current predictor then?
11/20-11/29
Mile - 5:41
5k - 19:21
10k - 40:29
HM - 1:28:26
M - 3:09:50
Now here's the interesting part. What if I take an EA of 8:41 and a LR of 7:46 (roughly the last 7 miles of the 11 mile LR)? What do they look like in my completing unrelated pacing calculator?

So let this soak in. My HR chart is based on my HR relative to effort I believe to be equivalent to paces. My effort in paces gives me the following "blind" idea on my pacing. That's to say these two systems are related but approach the answer in two different ways. One is HR v Pace and the other is Pure blind effort. And yet we get the following comparison...
5K - 19:21 vs 19:28
10K - 40:29 vs 40:34
HM - 1:28:26 vs 1:29:32
M - 3:09:50 vs 3:06:54
That's actually pretty cool how close those two prediction models are based on effort or HR. So let's look to Dopey again...
My original projections at the beginning of training 6 weeks ago:

Versus where I believe I am now:

The catch is the values used to make the 2015 and 2016 predictors for Dopey where with actual October marathon times. Is it fair to use predicted fitness? Is it fair to use fitness as of 11/29 and not October? Hard to say. It's a relatively large window that I may fall for my times:
5k = 19:36 - 21:29
10k = 38:58 - 44:15
HM = 1:32:19 - 1:42:19
M = 3:11:47 - 3:39:16
Goofy = 4:45:53 - 5:20:54
Dopey = 5:44:37 - 6:26:37
It's going to be fun to see which of these 8 current models comes the closest to predicting Dopey 2017. Which brings me to this. Since everything is going well again, and I'm feeling better than ever. I will likely have another prediction contest for Dopey 2017. I wasn't planning on doing one. But seeing all of these possible scenarios it would be fun to see what other people come up with. I'm thinking predict all 6 event times. Get points for closest predictions based on number of entrants. And double points for Dopey predictions. Don't worry about making any guesses now. I'll probably open up the window come around taper time.
Only...
1 HM Tempo
2 Long Runs
3 HM Strength
4 Marathon Tempos
remaining until Dopey day! It'll be here before I know it.
PS - Hooray for Post #1000!!!! Thanks for following along everyone. It means a lot.
