To Infinity and Beyond - Becoming a Better DopeyBadger (Comments Welcome)

[canglim52]

Are you referring to this?

View attachment 197636

This is just the Hansons Marathon Book Chart broken down into percentages related to certain distances. I did it for HM and 5K too.

View attachment 197637

The original Hansons pace chart is here from which I calculated the % difference from different distances.

View attachment 197638

My guess as to why the factors differ: Time is relative. So breaking them down into percentages may not work when comparing someone's paces at 16:00 min/mile vs 8:00 min/mile. A 5% increase in pace means more "real time" to the person with a 16:00 min/mile. This adjustment in the factors likely accounts for this by multiplying by slightly less and then the "real time" is closer as a whole to the percent change. I use the Hansons calculator because their philosophies are the fundamental basis of my training plan.

Every guy out there has different factors (Hansons, McMillan, Jack Daniels, Tom Schwartz, etc.) but in the end they all fall under the same "spectrum" of paces. So a few seconds here or there won't be the end all be all, but it's a great place to start.

Are you referring to this?

View attachment 197636

This is just the Hansons Marathon Book Chart broken down into percentages related to certain distances. I did it for HM and 5K too.

View attachment 197637

The original Hansons pace chart is here from which I calculated the % difference from different distances.

View attachment 197638

My guess as to why the factors differ: Time is relative. So breaking them down into percentages may not work when comparing someone's paces at 16:00 min/mile vs 8:00 min/mile. A 5% increase in pace means more "real time" to the person with a 16:00 min/mile. This adjustment in the factors likely accounts for this by multiplying by slightly less and then the "real time" is closer as a whole to the percent change. I use the Hansons calculator because their philosophies are the fundamental basis of my training plan.

Every guy out there has different factors (Hansons, McMillan, Jack Daniels, Tom Schwartz, etc.) but in the end they all fall under the same "spectrum" of paces. So a few seconds here or there won't be the end all be all, but it's a great place to start.

Thanks! That makes a lot of sense.

 

[canglim52]

Weather Forecast: 3 Days!!!

Start - Grafton, WI - 7:30am

View attachment 197713

End - Milwaukee, WI - 11:00am

View attachment 197714

T+D of 110-117, light tail wind, cloud cover, and minimal chance of rain. Still looking like a very good weather forecast.

I'll trade running conditions any day of the week! We are still 3-4 months away from that weather... either way, these are much better conditions than your last race

 

[DopeyBadger]

2016 Milwaukee Lakefront Prediction Contest! - FINAL

Alright, below are the final prediction contest entries. Looks like some mostly good guesses, looking at you G... Every single guess is a PR so guess I've got to nail that! And my sister-in-law has taken the anything worse than 3:22:52 distinction.

Prize - So since we've got so many guesses I decided to go with something real (was going to do something virtual). I'll give a $10 Amazon e-gift card via email to whomever has the closest prediction to the final official time. Remember this means you can be + or - to the actual time, all it takes is being closest. In the event of a tie, I will give the $10 Amazon e-gift card to whomever guessed first. I really appreciate all of the guesses, it means a lot!





Current Predictions
1:23:45 Little DopeyBadger (GiGi)
3:03:33 @Barca33Runner
3:04:48 @MissLiss279
3:05:00 @canglim52
3:08:48 @dis_or_dat
3:09:50 @ebradley23
3:10:00 @Slogger
3:10:20 Jean (co-worker)
3:10:38 Mrs. DopeyBadger (Steph)
3:11:18 @ZellyB
3:12:08 @pixarmom
3:12:57 Julia (co-worker)
3:13:31 @roxymama
3:14:15 @surfde22
3:14:40 @cburnett11
3:14:50 @RunDisneyDad
3:15:00 @run.minnie.miles
3:15:45 @disneydaydreamer33
3:16:00 @LSUlakes
3:16:37 @gjramsey
3:17:12 @Anisum
3:17:49 @jhorstma
3:18:32 @FFigawi
3:19:58 @Ariel484
3:20:08 @cavepig
3:20:41 @opusone
3:25:00 Heidi (Sister in Law)

 

[DopeyBadger]

3 days!!!!!!!

Hoping those cold germs stay away. The forecast looks great!!

Ack! Keep them away! Fingers crossed! So close, just move marathon to Saturday....

Thanks! That makes a lot of sense.

No problem.

I'll trade running conditions any day of the week! We are still 3-4 months away from that weather... either way, these are much better conditions than your last race

Don't I know it. I've seen your Strava descriptions referring to T+D of 150s as "beautiful" and I'm like whoa, those are my "ugh" temps. All relative and what you're used to I guess. We'll probably want to trade back when I'm running in -25 and you in 50-60s.

 

[surfde22]

2016 Milwaukee Lakefront Prediction Contest! - FINAL

Alright, below are the final prediction contest entries. Looks like some mostly good guesses, looking at you G... Every single guess is a PR so guess I've got to nail that! And my sister-in-law has taken the anything worse than 3:22:52 distinction.

Prize - So since we've got so many guesses I decided to go with something real (was going to do something virtual). I'll give a $10 Amazon e-gift card via email to whomever has the closest prediction to the final official time. Remember this means you can be + or - to the actual time, all it takes is being closest. In the event of a tie, I will give the $10 Amazon e-gift card to whomever guessed first. I really appreciate all of the guesses, it means a lot!

View attachment 197729

View attachment 197728

Current Predictions
1:23:45 Little DopeyBadger (GiGi)
3:03:33 @Barca33Runner
3:04:48 @MissLiss279
3:05:00 @canglim52
3:08:48 @dis_or_dat
3:09:50 @ebradley23
3:10:00 @Slogger
3:10:20 Jean (co-worker)
3:10:38 Mrs. DopeyBadger (Steph)
3:11:18 @ZellyB
3:12:08 @pixarmom
3:12:57 Julia (co-worker)
3:13:31 @roxymama
3:14:15 @surfde22
3:14:40 @cburnett11
3:14:50 @RunDisneyDad
3:15:00 @run.minnie.miles
3:15:45 @disneydaydreamer33
3:16:00 @LSUlakes
3:16:37 @gjramsey
3:17:12 @Anisum
3:17:49 @jhorstma
3:18:32 @FFigawi
3:19:58 @Ariel484
3:20:08 @cavepig
3:20:41 @opusone
3:25:00 Heidi (Sister in Law)

I think you might as well just give the gift card to GiGi now.

 

[DopeyBadger]

2016 Milwaukee Lakefront Prediction Contest - My Guess

So, how about me? What's my guess?

Non-Scientific Guess
Bib # = 212
Abe Lincoln's Birthday = 2/12
The day John Wilkes Booth planned to attempt his first assassination attempt on Lincoln by kidnapping him at a local play = 3/17/65
Final non-scientific guess = 3:18:05

Scientific Guess
A lot of my workouts are based on effort. What does EA feel like? What does marathon tempo feel like? I believe I have a pretty good understanding now after 8 previous marathons, what marathon pace feels like. So, on 4 separate occasions during my training cycle through blind effort runs (or my equivalent) I found my marathon pace to be around a 7:15 min/mile (or time equivalent at a different effort). If I were to multiply out 7:15 across 26.2 miles I'd get a predicted finishing time of 3:09:51.

However, when does anyone actually run 26.2 miles for a marathon (at least per their timing device and that's what my effort = pace is based of)? So, I looked back at last year's Lakefront Marathon and saw I ran 26.35 miles per my Garmin. With this, my predicted time would be 3:10:56.

But while the T+D will be good, it isn't ideal. Current weather predictions put it at cloudy with a range of 110-117. This means I should add a slight adjustment to my time due to the weather conditions. I'll add a 0.75% increase per this source. This gives me a predicted time of 3:12:51.

So, that's what I will stick with. A final predicted time of 3:12:51*. And please don't tell me any splits or min/mile of this number because I don't want to know it (part of keeping me blind).

*Prediction based on not getting icky cold symptoms. If that happens then who knows. Anyone got a cold symptoms adjustment percentage... Anyone... Anyone...

 

[DopeyBadger]

I think you might as well just give the gift card to GiGi now.

So true! She's got this in the bag! I should just go ahead and setup an email for her pre-emptively. You think bestguesseratdaddy'smarathontime@gmail.com is taken?

 

[surfde22]

So true! She's got this in the bag! I should just go ahead and setup an email for her pre-emptively. You think bestguesseratdaddy'smarathontime@gmail.com is taken?

I think you'll probably be able to snag that one for her.

 

[Ariel484]

You used a Ron Swanson gif. That makes up for you posting about clowns yesterday.

 

[DopeyBadger]

You used a Ron Swanson gif. That makes up for you posting about clowns yesterday.

LOL, no problem! You're welcome!



BTW, he is an awesome guy in person if you ever get the chance to meet him. Very live in the moment, don't take selfies with me, and enjoy talking with me type of guy.

 

[Ariel484]

LOL, no problem! You're welcome!

View attachment 197736

BTW, he is an awesome guy in person if you ever get the chance to meet him. Very live in the moment, don't take selfies with me, and enjoy talking with me type of guy.

OMG #1: Love that second gif...my favorite TV character ever!
OMG #2: I AM SO JEALOUS THAT YOU HAVE MET NICK OFFERMAN!!

 

[DopeyBadger]

OMG #1: Love that second gif...my favorite TV character ever!
OMG #2: I AM SO JEALOUS THAT YOU HAVE MET NICK OFFERMAN!!

LOL! I've only seen the show a few times but I definitely like his character.

I personally didn't get to meet him, but my wife did (she told me all those things about him). They did a speaking session and book signing at her store with him and they hung out together for a few hours. She said it was a cool experience and that he was a really down-to-earth guy.

 

[opusone]

Anyone got a cold symptoms adjustment percentage...

This is a simple cold symptoms factor formula that I've been working on (now, if I could only figure out the inputs)...

 

[roxymama]

I feel like @ZellyB will appreciate this. But Nick Offerman and his wife Megan Mullaly are huge fans of making puzzles. Here they are with 17 of their puzzles
I loved when I found this out because my hubby and I try to make crazy Shim Shimmel "animals in space" puzzles every year during our beach vacation.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/michellere...stays-together?utm_term=.kl5KrZNdQ#.by7vLRqBA

 

[ZellyB]

I feel like @ZellyB will appreciate this. But Nick Offerman and his wife Megan Mullaly are huge fans of making puzzles. Here they are with 17 of their puzzles
I loved when I found this out because my hubby and I try to make crazy Shim Shimmel "animals in space" puzzles every year during our beach vacation.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/michellere...stays-together?utm_term=.kl5KrZNdQ#.by7vLRqBA

OK. Those are freaking HILLARIOUS!!! And some of those puzzles look hella-hard.

 

[dis_or_dat]

I feel like @ZellyB will appreciate this. But Nick Offerman and his wife Megan Mullaly are huge fans of making puzzles. Here they are with 17 of their puzzles
I loved when I found this out because my hubby and I try to make crazy Shim Shimmel "animals in space" puzzles every year during our beach vacation.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/michellere...stays-together?utm_term=.kl5KrZNdQ#.by7vLRqBA

Hate to hijack this thread with Megan Mullaly and Nick Offerman love. I love how they met, their age difference (get it girl!), them on Parks & Rec... and now their puzzles! (also, their awesome interaction with @DopeyBadger 's wife).

Also, I have to say GOOD LUCK @DopeyBadger! Definitely no pressure with 27 people with huge bets on you! (come on, sub 3:09!!!!! )

Just think of that girl on the bike if you ever feel yourself flagging.

But you don't need any luck - YOU'VE GOT THIS!!!

(I don't know how to insert .gifs, but if I could, I would have a .gif of Laurie Hernandez saying "I've got this" to herself before rocking the balance beam)

 

[DopeyBadger]

This is a simple cold symptoms factor formula that I've been working on (now, if I could only figure out the inputs)...

View attachment 197771

AHHH.... See that's what I was missing! Now it all makes sense!

Hate to hijack this thread with Megan Mullaly and Nick Offerman love. I love how they met, their age difference (get it girl!), them on Parks & Rec... and now their puzzles! (also, their awesome interaction with @DopeyBadger 's wife).

Also, I have to say GOOD LUCK @DopeyBadger! Definitely no pressure with 27 people with huge bets on you! (come on, sub 3:09!!!!! )

Just think of that girl on the bike if you ever feel yourself flagging.

But you don't need any luck - YOU'VE GOT THIS!!!

(I don't know how to insert .gifs, but if I could, I would have a .gif of Laurie Hernandez saying "I've got this" to herself before rocking the balance beam)

I got this!



Yea, you've got a huge winning spread from 3:06:56-3:09:19. Not sure I've got that in me, but we'll see...

Oh, and don't you worry about streamer bike girl. You'll see tomorrow during the strategy post.

 

[DopeyBadger]

This will be my 2nd attempt at the Lakefront Marathon. When I ran it last year it was my first time using Hansons. It was also possibly the last time I would run a marathon. I had set a goal of breaking 4 hours and was really struggling to do it. I had to start running 6 days a week and wasn't sure whether it would be worth it if I couldn't break 4. I decided just to give my best effort and whatever happens happens. That race goes down as one of the most magical marathon experiences I have ever had. I ran the first half in roughly ~1:53. Pretty close to my desired pace for a 3:45 marathon. Then something magical happened. I just kept getting faster. I kept pushing. I kept reminding myself how much fun I was having. I kept reminding myself that it felt so easy and great. I ran the 2nd half of the marathon in 1:46. It was a then PR for a HM. I also ran a 10K PR during the 2nd half, and a 5K PR during miles 19-22. A 5K PR during miles 19-22?!?!?!?! I was soooo emotional when I crossed the finish line. Amazing! My hope for attempt #2 is to recapture the magic.

PS - Taper Madness is REAL! If I were to believe my body right now: I'm slow and can't go fast. My right hip is injured. My right knee is injured. My right calf is injured. My left ankle is injured. I KNOW these things aren't real/true. I KNOW the reasons why they are occurring. Yet, it seems I'm powerless to convince my body that I'm fine and we'll be fine on victory lap day!

 

[Baloo in MI]

Have a great race @DopeyBadger! You are an inspiration, I will be pulling for you. One year ago you where shooting for sub 4:00. Now you are looking at sub 3:10. Your commitment is inspiring!

 

[ZellyB]

I just know it's going to be another magical race for you! Can't wait to hear all about it. And, of course, gain bragging rights on my amazing prediction of your time!!