We decided not to go. It was a tough decision but there are just too many variables to try to control for such an expensive trip. We decided to shift our trip to a 7-night cruise on Celebrity. They sail with 95% vaccinated guests and all crew vaccinated. If you are unvaccinated (or refuse to validate your vaccination status), they have a rigorous testing schedule. So that controls several variables that we were concerned about. We cancelled everything and a switched reservations over today. I am stuck with my tickets, but at least I'll be able to keep their value for a future trip. I think part of it for me was recalling how anxious we were on our trip in March of 2020 as COVID was barreling down on us. I don't want our trip to feel like that. We'll be back someday!
ETA: We also got
travel insurance that includes medical evacuation coverage in case one of us DOES get a breakthrough infection and needs hospitalization. Celebrity also has policies and procedures in place to get you home if you test positive during your voyage and prorates a refund in that case. I was pretty impressed when I started looking at the details.