Thoughts about new waitlist policy for ad ons...

[lenshanem]

Anyone want to share their thoughts?

Are people coming into SSR looking to buy DVC, but want the other resorts so now DVC has decided to start buying up more points?

Are these points they require going to new people or are they only for add ons?

Hard to believe they can raise the price and we're at less years now. Does anyone still think it is worth $89 a point at this time?

Think this will really hurt the resale business?

If not, think we will see an increase on resale prices?

Dean?

 

[Skip Wiley]

I’m sure Disney has a plan, it seems too coincidental that the wait list and price increase came at the same time. I do think the old plan of first-come, first-served was creating problems, that plan didn’t create an equal playing field for all members and pitted Guides against each other to get the points.

I think it’s too early to tell if the changes are going to result in Disney exercising more ROFR. That would seem to make sense because they now have a list of potential buyers at the higher price. If so, the resale market will adjust and prices will go up and the sellers will be the big winners.

Is it worth $89 a point? I’m on the waitlist for BCV points, it’s worth it to me because that is where I want to say in the future and the 11 month window may become a factor once SSR is completely finished. I think the new price will drive others to SSR. My cousin was also waiting for a BCV add-on but after the price increase picked up an SSR add-on instead at $90 per point, figuring the price was essentially the same and he got the extra 12 years.

 

[LisaSt]

I think the 2 tie in quite well Disney is now making a bit more money on add on contracts and can excersise ROFR more frequently knowing the new waitlist is in place as people on the list now are more likeley to purchase the points than before. Just my opinion on this but it seems to coincide don't you think.

 

[bobbiwoz]

Well, if most people who buy at SSR want to try another resort, the guides can say that we also have add on points at the BWV, BCV and VWL. However, in a way, that does negate their probable pitch that you can always stay at the other resorts once the 7 month window for ressies comes.

We still would have had to say "sorry we changed our minds" when our guide called to say that the VWL points we wanted were available, but we do feel a bit sorry that they slipped away from us and now we'll have to pay even more for them if/when we want them. If we were to buy any more points, though, they would probably be at BCV because that would be the 1 resort that we would be sorry not to be able to stay at. We're "covered" for at least a few nights at VLW and our main home is BWV.

I'm anxiously waiting for October when the 7 month window opens for our May '05 Florida trip. This year we were able to have 2 nights at BCV booked 6 months out, with the new DVCers in the mix, I worry that we won't get it at 7 months, we'll see.

So, I think it was smart for Disney to raise the price, I can't quite believe it, but the market does seem to be there for the Epcot resorts and VWL. I'm not sure about OKW, and would anyone pay $89 for VB?

Bobbi

 

[jel0511]

I think the new ROFR policy was put in place for both reasons. With the list, the ROFR people will know in advance what the demand is for the sold out resorts, and if the deal even involves a marginal profit from their standpoint, they'll buy it back. I don't think they'll buy something back, if it meets their criteria, and they don't have a buyer already lined up for it. I also think the price increase was to make SSR more inticing to those existing DVC members who are wanting to add-on. It doesn't do it for me, we visited SSR and it wasn't our cup of tea. But for those who just want additional points, the only $1 difference will definately make SSR more attractive and I'm sure more members will add on at SSR instead of waiting for an add-on with their current home resort. When I had originally called my guide last week (before this new policy) she really tried to sell me on SSR. Kept mentioning that points there were available for me to use THAT DAY, and the extra 12 years would be beneficial to me. I kept insisting I wanted a BWV add-on and she eventually relented and took my info on that. We'll all have to see how this shakes out in the next few weeks. I am currently waiting to hear on ROFR on a BWV contract, before this new policy it looked like a slam dunk, now it might be marginal at passing at best.

 

[Mike]

Originally posted by LisaSt
I think the 2 tie in quite well Disney is now making a bit more money on add on contracts and can excersise ROFR more frequently knowing the new waitlist is in place as people on the list now are more likeley to purchase the points than before. Just my opinion on this but it seems to coincide don't you think.

 

[lenshanem]

UGH. Just thinking about not being able to get into VWL and BWV makes me feel sick to my tummy! A little OT, but I still worry what this whole new group of SSR owners is gonna do to the seven month window availability. We know the guides are using the other resorts as a selling point, too. I really hope they do another DVC resort at CR or something to take the pressure off a tad.

Just recently someone mentioned someone staying at SSR who just bought there and they didn't like it so they moved them over to BCV. They felt it was too remote. Anyone recall what I'm mentioning?

We just don't have the money to buy more points at VWL and BWV. Our BCV points will have to do for now and at some point very soon that $89 ain't gonna fly with the amount of years left to use it.

At least something gives me a piece of mind - I called recently to check some availability on some dates. For dates 9/11 - 9/14 there were studios available everywhere EXCEPT BCV. So despite bad press, it still gets booked first. And resales have been few and far between for it with prices usually a tad higher.

At least I having a little trading power I guess for the future. It just seems like such a pain to trade with another VWL and BWV owner. UGH!

At this point SSR doesn't appeal to me. I see problems, but I think they can be easily addressed. If they are gonna expand it to be so big then they are gonna need to make another theme type pool area IMO. Work on the food selection, too. The landscaping and buildings really are very pretty.

 

[Happy Birthday Cat]

IMHO Disney raised the price to firm up future sales at SSR. I know phase 1 sold fast but with so many people still wanting the sold out resorts, Disney must have thought why not get a little more of that action and/or why not make SSR more attractive. The price difference is so small now that the extra 12 years really does make a difference.

Im' glad they went back to the waitlist. I never liked the idea that if you happen to have a more aggressive Guide, you had more of an advantage over others. A waitlist evens things up for everyone who wants to buy the sold out resorts.

I'm wondering if the waitlist is also for new owners. Can a non DVC owner get on the waitlist or is it just for current owners?

HBC

 

[lenshanem]

I think the waitlist should be for existing owners first who want to add on. If the ROFR points are getting eaten up by new buyers buying points in larger amounts, existing DVC owners wanting a smaller add on might get "bumped" despite the new waitlist.

Regardless, a proper waitlist is the way it should be. Wasn't it like that before? Even when we wanted an add on at VWL I thought we were on a list. I recall being told how far down I was and I eventually gave up. At that time we didn't need to put a deposit down. Then when BCV was selling out we decided to add on quick and they did take a deposit. The points came thru within the week. Maybe that was the start of the points up for grabs phase?

 

[Happy Birthday Cat]

Originally posted by lenshanem
Regardless, a proper waitlist is the way it should be. Wasn't it like that before? Even when we wanted an add on at VWL I thought we were on a list.

Yes there was a waitlist before. It changed shortly after SSR went on sale. Probably to encourage SSR sales over those to the sodl out resorts. I liked it then and I like it now.

HBC

 

[jel0511]

I called my guide to see where I was on the "list". She spoke to her manager and she said there is no particular list at this time for guides to check where their clients are. They're might be a report in the future that will say where people are, and what the demand is. She also said that she beileve this is the "wave of the future" and this will create more demand for add-ons through DVC. She also said that demand wasn't as high as you'd expect for the sold-out resorts for add-ons, and that now, with the new procedures, they expect demand to go up, and buying back through ROFR to become high. Again, this is all based on what she told me, and we'll have to see how it goes. It will be interesting to see what happens to the contracts that were just recently submitted for ROFR, mine being one of them. I also made a "pun" about the resalers and she did indicated that they might be trying to squash that market. So, all we can do is wait and see.

 

[lenshanem]

Good luck Lori. You must be very nervous about your resale.

She also said that demand wasn't as high as you'd expect for the sold-out resorts for add-ons, and that now, with the new procedures, they expect demand to go up, and buying back through ROFR to become high.

I dunno on this one. Why do they think that? Maybe if they had the waitlist AND the old price or maybe even a tad lower I could really see them crushing the resale market and lots of existing owners adding on, but why do they think we'll all rush in to add when they make the price just a dollar lower than SSR with the longer contract date???

 

[Happy Birthday Cat]

Originally posted by jel0511
I also made a "pun" about the resalers and she did indicated that they might be trying to squash that market. So, all we can do is wait and see.

Unless Disney buys back directly from the owner, they will never squash the resalers. If Disney increases ROFR, the resalers still make their money on the sale. It doesn't hurt them at at all. It does drive up prices for those wanting to join but IMHO the resalers will be celebrating increased ROFR activity.

Thanks for the update from your Guide. It's interesting to hear her say that the demand is not as great as we would think.

HBC

 

[jel0511]

I personally don't agree or disagree with this statement, it's just what my guide told me. I can see how this can become the wave of the future if DVC basically buys back every contract that gets presented for ROFR, leaving everyone with no choice but to buy through DVC. I'm sure it will push the price in the resale market up by at least $5 maybe more, to undercut DVC slightly, but not enough for them to be interested to buy back. It could also point towards DVC instituting their own direct buy back program, which would basically leave the reseller out of the process completely. If that does happen, I'd expect the resale market to basically be eliminated, and everyone only being to add-on directly through DVC. I also agree that the price increase might be a tool in getting more members to buy at SSR, and trying to NOT have people get on the list. I do believe the list is going to drive which properties get bought back through ROFR and which ones get to pass. For example, if one is trying to get a Feb use year at BWV through I'd almost bet that gets bought back, since I know I'm currently on the waitlist (as of 4PM Wed) for that type of contract. Now, my resale contract I'm waiting on is for an April Use year. If I'm lucky enough that there is no DVC member on the waitlist for that contract, it probably will get through, since I don't think DVC wants to hold onto inventory, just buy it back and immediately resell it for immediate profit.

 

[LIFERBABE]

I can see how this can become the wave of the future if DVC basically buys back every contract that gets presented for ROFR, leaving everyone with no choice but to buy through DVC. I'm sure it will push the price in the resale market up by at least $5 maybe more, to undercut DVC slightly, but not enough for them to be interested to buy back. It could also point towards DVC instituting their own direct buy back program, which would basically leave the reseller out of the process completely.

If DVC started a direct buy-back program, they could still be very selective in what they buy back. The resalers would still be there, because they sell other timeshares, but I don't see DVC holding onto alot of inventory either. There is already a disparity between the number of OKW,HHI and Vero contracts on the resale sites compared to BCV, BWV, and VWL. DVC had a hard enough time completely selling out Vero so Im sure they don't want to start building that inventory again. They will buy what they can move. They pay the MF's for all points in their inventory so they definitely dont want to have a parking lot for points.

Also, SSR owners will want to add-on at the smaller resorts too. There will be quite a few of us, and not everyone will want to wait until the 7 month window, so that is where the additional demand could come from. Up until the changes, the guides had to discourage the buyer regarding the sold-outs. Now they can encourage that once they buy 150 SSR points they can add-on at any resort they want in smaller increments if they want.

This change may even help SSR sales as a back door to the other DVC's, if they close the front door by using ROFR for their most waitlisted properties the only way you will get an add on at VWL, BCV or BWV will be thru them.

When I am finished with my add-ons, I will own at all 5 onsite DVC's for 5 different reasons so the loyalty is to DVC, not necessarily a home resort.

Is it worth it at $89 ppt? Im sure those that bought into OKW at $51 ppt. 15 yrs ago thought $64 was not worth it. I purchased my firt contract last Aug 2003 and paid $74 for BCV and $79 for SSR. I think history has proven that the trend is upward and even with only 38 years left, that is still a lifetime of DVC vacations.

 

[Beca]

Originally posted by jel0511
I don't think DVC wants to hold onto inventory, just buy it back and immediately resell it for immediate profit.

I don't know about this. After talking to my guide I got a very different impression. I think DVC may WANT to have a certain level of every "sold out" resort on hand. Below, I copied a post where I wrote about the impressions I got from our conversation.

I have a different theory...I think SSR sales are going much faster (and stronger) than anticipated. They are finding themselves in a situation where they are trying to pre-sell units which are not completed (and therefore have no "current" points to use). I think they might find that a bit of a difficult and unappealing thing to sell...hence the promo...buy at SSR starting next year, and we will give you a free vacation anywhere but SSR right now. I think DVC is trying to 1) slow down the sales of SSR a bit until the construction can catch up, 2) increase inventory so that when a buyer comes in, they can offer them SSR in 6 or so months, or BWV now, 3) actually perform a customer service to keep existing members happy and "acquire" small amounts of add-on points for them when people find they need more points (which they inevitably do ).

In spite of the fact that DVC can make a killing from people who buy resales and finance thru them, I don't think DVC is clearing very much if they offer these properties at $84 per point when you don't include financing. I think that is why the price increase occured (also to make "sold out" properties and SSR similar in value...the "sold out" properties, when available in large numbers cannot be too cheap or they will virtually halt sales of SSR).

So, while I feel that getting BWV, BCV or VWL through ROFR will be tougher than OKW, I think we will see DVC buying a LOT of properties back in the next few months to try and build inventory of ALL properties. I also predict that we will see a LOT of "newbies" on this board who buy places other than SSR on a regular basis. The "Wow...I snagged an initial contract at BWV...how lucky am I?" posts may become a thing of the past.

While I am NOT excited about the price increase, I am VERY excited about the thought of actually getting my add-on sooner rather than later. I also suspect that if you want points at some of the smaller resorts (VWL, BCV) you BETTER get them sooner rather than later. As people who have "add-on-itis" (i.e. loyal DVC'ers who KNOW they love vacationing there, and plan to do so for many years) snag up the newly available points, I think that over time we might see the number of available contracts dwindle. I know many people will disagree with me on this one...divorces,deaths, illnesses, and financial problems do occur...but, I still the number of points going out will be greater than the number of points coming in...and that eventually leads to a deficit number.

I had heard that DVC might even begin to purchase contracts from people trying to sell (at a pre-set price). That would be great (easy to buy...easy to sell) for everyone except the re-sellers!

Anyway...it's just my theory...I thought I would throw it out there!! Any other comments....please feel free to respond!!!



Beca

 

[LIFERBABE]

I don't know about this. After talking to my guide I got a very different impression. I think DVC may WANT to have a certain level of every "sold out" resort on hand. Below, I copied a post where I wrote about the impressions I got from our conversation.

Why have it "on hand" when they have ROFR? ROFR is like their very own golden goose laying golden eggs on demand. They can have the points anytime they want them.
DVC would have to "stock" points at each Resort for each Use Year and pay MF on them until they are sold or they can go to their goose when they get an order. That is just mho but I would think it inefficient and contrary to the system they have in place.

 

[tjkraz]

Originally posted by lenshanem
UGH. Just thinking about not being able to get into VWL and BWV makes me feel sick to my tummy! A little OT, but I still worry what this whole new group of SSR owners is gonna do to the seven month window availability.

Not picking on you by any means, but perhaps I can offer a different way of looking at things.

The one thing none of us can control is the amount of space available at a non-Home resort when that 7 month window arrives. People will ALWAYS want to visit resorts other than their Home, freeing up some rooms. And, there's no doubt that some times of the year book up faster than others.

So, when the 7 month window arrives, there will be SOME volume of rooms available at every resort.

The real impact that expansion of the DVC program will have is that those vacant rooms will be booked-up FASTER than in the past. The relative number of vacancies won't change, but the demand for those vacancies WILL change.

Example: Let's assume that the last studio at BCV for September was taken 5 months out as determined by demand in 2004. Well, it could be that by 2010 that last studio will be taken by the 6 month point. More members wanting to get into BCV at 7 months means that the rooms will be booked QUICKER. It does NOT mean that rooms will never be available.

Again, as long as BCV owners have a desire to stay elsewhere (which we have every reason to believe will be the case at times), there WILL be rooms available at 7 months. BCV cannot add additional members or points, so the demand for that resort is likely to stay flat (or vary by small increments.) The only variable that will drastically change is the number of people trying to book a non-Home resort at 7 months. Those who plan ahead and call right at 7 months will, IMO, have a very high chance of success whether there are 80,000 or 180,000 DVC members.

The main classes of rooms that will continue to be problems in the future are the ones that are problems today--BWV Standard and Boardwalk view and OKW Grand Villas.

My take:

If I were in the market for points, the only add-on I would consider at $89 would be BWV to get access to the Standard View rooms. Aside from that, for the $6 difference in price (or just $1 if purchasing 100 pts or more), I'll take more SSR points with the longer contract and low dues.

In less than a year of booking trips I've gotten (or been offered) rooms at BWV and BCV on just 3 or 4 months notice, including a Boardwalk View 1B. While the warnings that are offered to potential members about Home resort priority are "fair warnings", I've yet to see any real evidence to support the Home resort mania that seems to plague many of the posts.

Just my $.02...

 

[Beca]

Originally posted by LIFERBABE
That is just mho but I would think it inefficient and contrary to the system they have in place.

Unless they are trying to "slow" down sales of SSR until construction can "catch up". Then, it really doesn't help DVC in getting people to "sign on the dotted line" to say, "Well, you can buy at SSR and get your first points next year, but we have a promo where you can stay anywhere BUT your own resort this year". Or, "We PROBABLY can get you BWV points, but we don't really know exactly when, or what use year they will be, but let me go ahead and get you sign, and we'll call you when we find some points for you." That approach may work for current members, but it could seem very scary or uncertain to new ones.

DVC would not have to have EVERY use year available to sell to new members. When you buy at a new resort from DVC, RARELY are all use years available, and many new people don't even know to ask for different ones...they just take what is available. As long as DVC has SOME inventory available for each resort...they're okay.

Also, keep in mind that if people begin to think that they can "bargain hunt" for add-ons for who knows how long (I have been looking a REALLY long time for a small contract at VWL with a Sept. UY), or they probably get points at DVC pretty quickly...DVC might become the more attractive choice (esp. if you need to finance). Plus, call it a hunch...but, with the popularity of DVC seeming to "explode", I think DVC realizes that at MANY of the sold-out resorts, getting rid of inventory would never be a problem.

JMO



Beca

 

[Deep-Thots]

Originally posted by lenshanem
UGH. Just thinking about not being able to get into VWL and BWV makes me feel sick to my tummy! A little OT, but I still worry what this whole new group of SSR owners is gonna do to the seven month window availability. We know the guides are using the other resorts as a selling point, too.

I just want to point out that there are SSR owners who *really like* SSR (especially its proximity to DTD), who dislike the whole Epcot Resort conglomeration, and who also aren't completely thrilled by VWL's proximity to MK. In other words, there are SSR owners who really don't have much intention of staying at the other DVC resorts (except maybe OKW! )

Breathe! It's okay! Take a deep breath.... And another..... It'll all work out!!