The VGF 2 pricing thread

[CaptainAmerica]

I have to confess that after reading this thread I am actually surprised how tight some of you seem to be with your guide. I have a very nice guide but I really don't have much contact with him. If only he knew how easy it would be to persuade me to buy more points Thank goodness he isn't reaching out and pushing me over the fence. LOL.

Having never purchased direct, I didn't even realize I HAD a guide, as in "any DVC person you speak to becomes your guide and if you go speak to some new DVC person, that person replaces the first person as your guide."

I talked to a woman on the Magic in December and she was asking me about my guide Brian, or whatever his name was. I hadn't the foggiest idea what she was talking about, until I figured out that I had spoken to some guy Brian on live chat two years prior and he had apparently become "my guide" at that time.

 

[DisneyMom_3]

DVC creates a lot of FOMO and emotion but on a practical level, to be honest I don't see the huge appeal of this particular resort/expansion, considering BLT offers most of the same advantages of VGF and more flexibility in room choices, along with a far better points chart so your money goes further. If you have an attachment to VGF, I get it, but there's really not a huge selling point for this flip unless you really want studios near MK and don't like BLT (or even Poly for that matter). Keep in mind you can still enjoy VGF's dining and shopping, vibe, etc without owning there.

Because the product offers only pretty basic studios in the new building, you'd think the price should be lower to reflect that, but I really doubt it will be. Yes, you have options in the VGF1 building but now you have that many more people fighting for them. If it's priced at $255 a point I just can't see the reason to spend it when you have several others options in the MK area that cost less and offer essentially the same location.

I have no problem with VGF and we'd like to try it out and stay there someday but I don't see much reason to own there because the point chart is very high and BLT is a considerably less expensive option (in initial price and point chart) for basically the same location.

We are a family of 5, so studios at BLT are not an option. VGF is the only monorail resort that offers Studios that sleep 5 AND larger 1 and 2 BR villas.

 

[SusieQ93]

I love how DVC has manufactured the idea in peoples head that $207pp is “low”. That is the pixie dust magic right there, they can list VGF at $207 and a majority of people on here will consider that a steal. When 2.5 years ago RIV opened at $188.
Remember VGF opened in 2013 at $145 and factoring inflation that would be $175 in today dollars. So even opening at $207 would be an actual 18% increase in opening prices when factoring for inflation. Yet DVC has made people think that’s a “low” price.

I know! Was just thinking that. We all are brainwashed. $207 pp is a big buy in at 150 pts. And you have to remember most people buying are going to be new members. They likely never heard that $255 Pp price. That’s who guides will mostly have to convince it’s worth it. What do you all do for work who think $31k on a non-essential luxury purchase is cheap? I’m in the wrong line of work clearly

 

[Bjaiken77]

There is one thing you all can know for certain: I don’t work for DVC. If I did, I would have blabbed the price all over the message boards today. I can’t keep a secret like that.

 

[SusieQ93]

There is one thing you all can know for certain: I don’t work for DVC. If I did, I would have blabbed the price all over the message boards today. I can’t keep a secret like that.

Same. I said it before, but my job is fairly boring and I don’t hold any interesting secrets. Probably a good thing.

 

[DisneyMom_3]

You mean you are not going to check the website after midnight like me??

Just kidding. I won’t be doing that!!

I would if I thought there was any chance the price would be listed!

 

[Paul Stupin]

My guide has a smart plan for tomorrow. He’s going to be emailing all of his buyers who have expressed interest all the info, including pricing sheets, point charts, incentives, etc, as soon as he gets it early in the morning, so that when he calls everyone will know the specific financials.

 

[lowlight]

I just listened to a podcast defend pricing at $207, and I have to say I was tempted for a minute.

But I don't trust DVC's future construction plans. If they're willing to sell VGF that low, then who knows what they will do next? No reason they couldn't print points by slapping up another loser, off site property. Or worse, convert a failed one somewhere. VGF pricing low is a bad sign. It means DVC isn't holding its spread against resale, and is desperate enough to be competing in resale. The extensive ROFR has shown they are already moving towards this strategy.

I said earlier I’m really interested to see their pricing strategy because it will reveal some of their future plans. The parks and resorts are so busy, I’m shocked Reflections isn’t back in the cards, but a competitive price at VGF2 tomorrow will almost certainly prove they’ve abandoned new resorts for these cheap flips. Most here are going to be happy with cheap VGF2 tomorrow, but to me it’s a sign that the glory days are over for DVC. I’ll likely buy if it’s low just to get a good 3 resort contract spread and that will be my third and final contract.

 

[SJFSTravelMatt]

We just bought in last November. Our guide just emailed this morning to gauge our interest in adding on tomorrow.

 

[HappyThoughtsTees]

There are other ways to crush the resale market. The most current restriction was probably the most effective to date but still isn't draconian enough to kill resales. And I think it may have had a small impact on RIV sales, otherwise we would have seen a VGF2 conversion to a brand new condo association like CCV. I won't list my thoughts on other methods to discourage resale purchases because I don't want to give Disney any ideas.

But OTOH, DVC needs a robust resale industry to lend legitimacy to its high purchase price. I believe that ROFR helps to keep the resale prices artificially high in order the keep the margin between direct and resale as small as possible.

I agree that DVC needs robust resale industry to thrive. One of the reasons I purchased points instead of continuing to rent is that in a pinch I could sell and not be completely underwater. Other timeshares don't offer that possibility, as far as I know. Take away the safety net of the resale market and you have a less enticing product.

 

[Sandisw]

I have to confess that after reading this thread I am actually surprised how tight some of you seem to be with your guide. I have a very nice guide but I really don't have much contact with him. If only he knew how easy it would be to persuade me to buy more points Thank goodness he isn't reaching out and pushing me over the fence. LOL.

My contact with him is when I know I am adding on. Other than that, I don't talk to him or hear from him and that is cool. I reached out to him in the last month because I knew that I was going to add VGF, assuming the price is right for me.

It is just the last week that I have talked to him a lot to get answers to questions or for him to update me (like yesterday about the whole potential NY issue)....once I buy, it will be radio silence again until the next time! LOL

 

[Paul Stupin]

I just listened to a podcast defend pricing at $207, and I have to say I was tempted for a minute.

But I don't trust DVC's future construction plans. If they're willing to sell VGF that low, then who knows what they will do next? No reason they couldn't print points by slapping up another loser, off site property. Or worse, convert a failed one somewhere. VGF pricing low is a bad sign. It means DVC isn't holding its spread against resale, and is desperate enough to be competing in resale. The extensive ROFR has shown they are already moving towards this strategy.

DVC has shown no loyalty to Blue Cards. They couldn't be bothered to slap a $100 discount on the Incredipass, and now they have really let DVC down, by not fighting for Blue Cards to buy APs at all, even Pixie Dust passes. I can buy my own evening ticket when the year-round party, hard-ticket strategy returns, which I don't think will take long.

If VGF opens at $207, it will send shockwaves through resale. Maybe I'll be ready to buy a resale Poly contract or a resale BLT. Maybe I'll be chilling at the July Halloween party at resale Poly instead.

So you’re switching from one apocalyptic vision to another now. First, the VGF2 price was going to be “sky high,” I believe higher than $275. Now you’re leaning toward $207, but apparently that’s an equally horrible option, because it’s just way too low and will upend resale and is thus a “very bad sign.” Uh, ok. First, $207 is hardly a fire sale…it’s also the current price of other equally high quality properties, Riviera and of course your favorite, Aulani. It’s the current going rate for non sold out resorts, plain and simple. And now, somehow, you regard this as a sign of the entire system breaking down.

I actually don’t think it will be the end of the world for VGF resale either. At $180 it’s still a $30 pp savings. In the immediate term, VGF direct prices will go up, and in the long term it will sell out in a couple years and resale prices will be right back where they are now.

 

[RoseGold]

So you’re switching from one apocalyptic vision to another now. First, the VGF2 price was going to be “sky high,” I believe higher than $275. Now you’re leaning toward $207, but apparently that’s an equally horrible option, because it’s just way too low and will upend resale and is thus a “very bad sign.” Uh, ok. First, $207 is hardly a fire sale…it’s also the current price of other equally high quality properties, Riviera and of course your favorite, Aulani. It’s the current going rate for non sold out resorts, plain and simple. And now, somehow, you regard this as a sign of the entire system breaking down.

LOL, you're in a speculation thread right now. I don't have any more information than anybody else.

But yes, I'm an owner. Of VGF1 in particular. I care about the value of my points. Devaluing my points, like the Aulani fire sale, like the BLT fire sale, which I still don't understand, and selling VGF2 for slightly over what resale has been for the last year, is what I consider a bad sign for the value of the product I own. And it's a bad sign about the kind of decision making DVC could do, because they have a lot of options that don't line up with the interests of owners if they really need cash.

Great news for Disney though. Printing points with cheap flips, hooray! Sell it out!

 

[Sandisw]

My guide has a smart plan for tomorrow. He’s going to be emailing all of his buyers who have expressed interest all the info, including pricing sheets, point charts, incentives, etc, as soon as he gets it early in the morning, so that when he calls everyone will know the specific financials.

Mine will be doing the same, providing they get the approval needed for NY buyers today to get it. That will be the killer if they do not!

 

[Bjaiken77]

I just listened to a podcast defend pricing at $207, and I have to say I was tempted for a minute.

But I don't trust DVC's future construction plans. If they're willing to sell VGF that low, then who knows what they will do next? No reason they couldn't print points by slapping up another loser, off site property. Or worse, convert a failed one somewhere. VGF pricing low is a bad sign. It means DVC isn't holding its spread against resale, and is desperate enough to be competing in resale. The extensive ROFR has shown they are already moving towards this strategy.

DVC has shown no loyalty to Blue Cards. They couldn't be bothered to slap a $100 discount on the Incredipass, and now they have really let DVC down, by not fighting for Blue Cards to buy APs at all, even Pixie Dust passes. I can buy my own evening ticket when the year-round party, hard-ticket strategy returns, which I don't think will take long.

If VGF opens at $207, it will send shockwaves through resale. Maybe I'll be ready to buy a resale Poly contract or a resale BLT. Maybe I'll be chilling at the July Halloween party at resale Poly instead.

You make a lot of good points, but even if it starts that low, they can raise the price quickly. I think that’s where a lot of the enthusiasm lies - get in before they do that.

I do think about selling contracts if I get in a bind - I can’t say I don’t. But otherwise, even if the price drops off the table, I’m “stuck” going to VGF, RIV, and other DVC resorts for a long time. It could be worse.

 

[EYL]

I love how DVC has manufactured the idea in peoples head that $207pp is “low”. That is the pixie dust magic right there, they can list VGF at $207 and a majority of people on here will consider that a steal. When 2.5 years ago RIV opened at $188.
Remember VGF opened in 2013 at $145 and factoring inflation that would be $175 in today dollars. So even opening at $207 would be an actual 18% increase in opening prices when factoring for inflation. Yet DVC has made people think that’s a “low” price.

Which is quite interesting to think about... I mean, at $145 for 50 years, it's $2.90 per point per year. If it's $207 for 42 years, it works out to $4.93 per point per year. A 70% increase without factoring in inflation, and 41% if you do! I guess it all boils down to marketing and it's no wonder Chapek earns that nice hefty paycheck...

 

[sethschroeder]

$207 is hardly a fire sale

To be fair the resale price has been hovering between $180-$199 for the top and bottom 25% limit on resold contracts. That will impact those reselling if points directly from Disney are $207. For 150 points you are looking at a $1200-$4050 premium to get direct points or just 4%-13% premium which is not much honestly.


Edit to add: My information is collected directly from Orange County Deed Filings, so it will not map up to the ROFR thread on this site which is only a subset of sales.

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

I just listened to a podcast defend pricing at $207, and I have to say I was tempted for a minute.

But I don't trust DVC's future construction plans. If they're willing to sell VGF that low, then who knows what they will do next? No reason they couldn't print points by slapping up another loser, off site property. Or worse, convert a failed one somewhere. VGF pricing low is a bad sign. It means DVC isn't holding its spread against resale, and is desperate enough to be competing in resale. The extensive ROFR has shown they are already moving towards this strategy.

DVC has shown no loyalty to Blue Cards. They couldn't be bothered to slap a $100 discount on the Incredipass, and now they have really let DVC down, by not fighting for Blue Cards to buy APs at all, even Pixie Dust passes. I can buy my own evening ticket when the year-round party, hard-ticket strategy returns, which I don't think will take long.

If VGF opens at $207, it will send shockwaves through resale. Maybe I'll be ready to buy a resale Poly contract or a resale BLT. Maybe I'll be chilling at the July Halloween party at resale Poly instead.

Which are the "loser, off site properties"? (seriously curious; looking for resorts to avoid) thanks.

 

[sethschroeder]

$145 for 50 years

Makes me feel good that I bought in at RIV for $155/point

I am interested to see how this threat unfolds tomorrow when price is announced.

 

[sethschroeder]

Which are the loser, off site properties?

It would be current owners at VGF looking to sell their contract in the coming time period where VGF has this new price point.

VGF resale pricing has be partly held back because of the VGF2 announcement. If pricing were to drop sub $210 it would impact the top end of what a VGF seller could get for their contract. It will hold back the rate in which VGF resale pricing goes up for at least the short term.