The VGF 2 pricing thread

[Jimmy Geppetto]

Yes because there is no metric to say where sales would have been if they didn't have restrictions. I was one sale they didn't get because of them. I'm sure there are many others.

There are many others. No doubt at all. But there are more.... way more who chose to still buy.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Actual sales data from DVC Resale Market does not support what you suggest. RIV resales are doing extremely well compares to other DVC resorts.

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If you look at someone whose not trying to sell you something’s data across the whole market you see that the average sales price has fallen for 3 straight months for Riviera and that all but 3 of the 17 contracts currently for sale have been listed for over a month, and half for over 2 months. They’re just sitting there.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I was actually a doomsayer about RIV resale but it is out performing forecasts.
Whether this is because of small inventory, who knows? Maybe it’s just because SSR/AKV/OKW now sitting around $130 and not the $100 they were at when RIV opened
Maybe we underestimate the buyers that are

• Not aware that resale restrictions are at RIV only
• Resale post 2019 owners who want a RIV contract
• RIV owners adding on at lower price

Will this all change when RIV is sold out or when new DVC properties come online?
Possibly, but I am surprised it’s not sitting around $140 at most

I am certain it will drop into the SSR/OKW range sooner than later. Inventory matters.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I am certain it will drop into the SSR/OKW range sooner than later. Inventory matters.

You could be correct but I'm not sure anyone can accurately predict where costs per point for any resort will end up over the long haul. We originally purchased Boardwalk at something like $65 per point and would have never guessed that it would be selling resale north of $140 today.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

You could be correct but I'm not sure anyone can accurately predict where costs per point for any resort will end up over the long haul. We originally purchased Boardwalk at $65 per point and would have never guessed that it would be selling resale north of $140 today.

I am only predicting relative to other resorts; as you point out trying to predict absolute pricing is basically predicting the economy.

I’m not sure how one can look at how Riviera is selling relative to all of the other DVCs ever and be optimistic about its resale value once the property reaches maturity.

 

[thank_the_phoenicians88]

Yes because there is no metric to say where sales would have been if they didn't have restrictions. I was one sale they didn't get because of them. I'm sure there are many others.

I contemplated adding on at RIV (it’s a beautiful resort!), but didn’t due to the resale restrictions. If I want to stay at Riviera, I’ll rent out my resale points and will use the cash to go towards a riviera stay. More work? Yes. But at least my resale will hold its value well for the short-to-medium term since these points can be used across the platform of dvc resorts. I feel like holding all else equal, people will prefer an “unrestricted” resale versus a restricted resale that limits you solely to one property.

 

[DKZB]

Riv also comes with no restrictions (when you buy from Disney). It's kind of meaningless in the sales pitch for a direct buyer, they aren't impacted.

It of course MAY effect resale price, but guides are hardly pushing this one might be worth more than that one 10 years from now. They make no promises and they aren't investments. Both could also be worth far less in 10 years than the market would dictate.

The genius on Disney's part is not that restrictions are bad for direct, they are bad for resale.

This may be blasphemy here but I am not a huge Disney fan. I like Disney service, I know I have things to do at Disney, and I have young kids but if there wasn’t a strong resale market the is a 0% chance I would’ve bought DVC. I wouldn’t buy any other timeshare, especially not at DVC prices and especially not one that I can only stay at one hotel!

I didn’t buy direct because i didn’t want Aulani and I think resale restrictions are bad for the buyer. I don’t think current prices from the relatively low supply of RIV resale points on a shiny new resort is indicative of the long term value. Just wait until it’s not shiny and new and it is in need of an update!

Just my $0.02

 

[BeachClub2014]

I contemplated adding on at RIV (it’s a beautiful resort!), but didn’t due to the resale restrictions. If I want to stay at Riviera, I’ll rent out my resale points and will use the cash to go towards a riviera stay. More work? Yes. But at least my resale will hold its value well for the short-to-medium term since these points can be used across the platform of dvc resorts. I feel like holding all else equal, people will prefer an “unrestricted” resale versus a restricted resale that limits you solely to one property.

I am sure you're spot-on in thinking that most people prefer more flexibility in their use of points, including resale. I know that I prefer flexibility in using my points which were one of the factors in buying direct. I suspect as new resorts are brought online, with likely restrictions, people will have to continue to make these value decisions.

 

[Sandisw]

I am only predicting relative to other resorts; as you point out trying to predict absolute pricing is basically predicting the economy.

I’m not sure how one can look at how Riviera is selling relative to all of the other DVCs ever and be optimistic about its resale value once the property reaches maturity.

Because in 20 years when those 2042 resorts come back with those restrictions, then what RIV has won't be unique. Assuming more resorts are built with them between now and then, it will play a role. I don't think anyone can argue that almost 3 years since it went on sale, that the resale for this resort has not tanked to the level that most of us...including me...thought it would right out of the gate.

It has not because people do love the resort and are willing to own points there to use there as part of what they own. I definitely think the resale restrictions have put off many current buyers who already own...but, the vast majority of new sales for DVD are people buying into RIV.

Those restrictions are simply not turning people off right now. So, for VGF, I just don't see the resale restriction that RIV will carry being enough for DVD to say we can price it that much higher. Remember, DVD has the power to simply remove the restrictions from RIV. And, who knows, once VGF goes on sale, maybe they will decide to do it. With the incentives for BLT, they now have an MK resort without restrictions competing against RIV with those restrictions for very similar prices. It will be very interesting to see what this does to sales numbers for RIV. It will be the same when VGF goes for sale.

 

[tjkraz]

Resale restrictions are very bad for direct sales in any sectors. Very few people are coming in dropping $30k plus without wondering about the future.

They've sold 2.6 million riviera points with the restrictions. And they could undo the restrictions if they felt it wasn't serving a useful purpose. The fact that they haven't speaks volumes.

 

[tjkraz]

If you look at someone whose not trying to sell you something’s data across the whole market you see that the average sales price has fallen for 3 straight months for Riviera and that all but 3 of the 17 contracts currently for sale have been listed for over a month, and half for over 2 months. They’re just sitting there.

I am only predicting relative to other resorts; as you point out trying to predict absolute pricing is basically predicting the economy.

I’m not sure how one can look at how Riviera is selling relative to all of the other DVCs ever and be optimistic about its resale value once the property reaches maturity.

Reselling an active resort has always been difficult because you're competing directly with DVC. Resale prices ~25-30% lower than direct is pretty standard across the board.

The best advice I would give Riviera buyers is to split their purchase into smaller contracts. Riviera is likely to sell for less than others as resale volume rises, but 50-75 point contracts will go faster, for higher rates. Small contracts will be very palatable to the Riviera fan, banking and borrowing for longer, less frequent stays.

I definitely wouldn't want to be the seller of a 435-point contract. At the same time, I don't think its selling price + timeline will say much about the typical Riviera resale. Certainly not a 50-point contract.

It will be interesting to see if DVC follows the lead of other timeshare developers and allows resale purchasers to buy-up to full benefits. It would be another revenue stream. We just haven't reached a point where it's particularly valuable. Yet.

 

[Jwaire]

RIV's restrictions tend to get overblown on this board because members here (including me) are very invested and informed about DVC.

I'd argue the vast majority of DVC members aren't. If you join any DVC Facebook group, the same basic questions are asked and answered constantly. A member who doesn't understand the difference between booking window and use year isn't going to understand the ramifications of resale restrictions. You purchase DVC in the "magic" of the moment, not to sell it in 5, 7 or 10+ years. So, it's just not a serious concern for most buyers (whether they were told or not).

New buyers will purchase VGF2 over RIV because they like the resort and location.

I was very skeptical about Riviera. I think the resale restrictions are unnecessary and against the spirit of DVC (lol, I know). But I've noticed the resort gets nothing but positive praise on social media (which apparently is the most important thing ever at the moment). So, I made some time to check it out on my latest trip.

After visiting, I understand why it's popular. I dropped by twice on my recent trip, once using the bus and once using the Skyliner. I heard nothing but positive comments from guests about the resort both times before I even arrived at the resort.

The lady I shared the Skyliner with was raving about her stay there. She wasn't even a DVC member (Who pays cash for these rooms through Disney?). The resort itself was immaculate—very clean and fresh. I was greeted immediately by concierge-level cast members (and lobby security—which I was a little taken back by). My lunch at Primo Piatto was the best on-property quick service I've had other than Geyser Point.

Did they round up the best-of-the-best cast members from the other resorts or what? Because everyone I interacted with from the gift shop to housekeeping was friendly and asked if they could help me. I got a little lost exploring all the art on the walls and a member of housekeeping walked me back to the elevator that you go down to enter Primo Piatto.

It wouldn't surprise if this is the future of resorts at World, at least under Chapek. Why build another sprawling Grand Floridan with 800+ rooms when you can build a smaller, boutique-style, "luxurious" resort with 300 rooms and have most of the maintenance paid for by DVC members? Then you can slow sell it and charge upwards of $650-950+ per night to stay in a studio on the cash side.

 

[Paul Stupin]

@Nabas, thanks for the chart.

IMO, it suggests resale prices for VGF will decrease significantly if the opening price for VGF2 direct is the same as Riviera. At $210 pp, I'd be bidding $155-$160 for resale. It will be interesting to see how quickly we see the change.

Originally I thought that the VGF resale price would go down to the level you’re suggesting as well if the opening price for VGF2 is the same as Riviera, but now I’m not so sure. Assuming a resale price of about $180, that’s still a $27 savings per point over direct, with the only restriction being that buyers cannot book at Riviera or DLT in a few years, or some other unknown new build way in the future. Will new resale buyers, understanding that they can book at the original 14 for years to come, even with some diminishment at 2042, really care? I don’t think they will. I know I didn’t initially when I bought resale, at least not until I stayed at Riviera, became way more familiar with DVC, and switched to buying direct.

The direct VGF2 price will also no doubt go up after a few months, giving resale another boost, and let’s not forget new buyers who want to purchase less than the 150 point minimum having no other option but to buy resale. The huge Aulani incentives offered a few months ago didn’t really seem to impact the relatively high Aulani resale prices either.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

RIV's restrictions tend to get overblown on this board because members here (including me) are very invested and informed about DVC.

I'd argue the vast majority of DVC members aren't. If you join any DVC Facebook group, the same basic questions are asked and answered constantly. A member who doesn't understand the difference between booking window and use year isn't going to understand the ramifications of resale restrictions. You purchase DVC in the "magic" of the moment, not to sell it in 5, 7 or 10+ years. So, it's just not a serious concern for most buyers (whether they were told or not).

New buyers will purchase VGF2 over RIV because they like the resort and location.

I was very skeptical about Riviera. I think the resale restrictions are unnecessary and against the spirit of DVC (lol, I know). But I've noticed the resort gets nothing but positive praise on social media (which apparently is the most important thing ever at the moment). So, I made some time to check it out on my latest trip.

After visiting, I understand why it's popular. I dropped by twice on my recent trip, once using the bus and once using the Skyliner. I heard nothing but positive comments from guests about the resort both times before I even arrived at the resort.

The lady I shared the Skyliner with was raving about her stay there. She wasn't even a DVC member (Who pays cash for these rooms through Disney?). The resort itself was immaculate—very clean and fresh. I was greeted immediately by concierge-level cast members (and lobby security—which I was a little taken back by). My lunch at Primo Piatto was the best on-property quick service I've had other than Geyser Point.

Did they round up the best-of-the-best cast members from the other resorts or what? Because everyone I interacted with from the gift shop to housekeeping was friendly and asked if they could help me. I got a little lost exploring all the art on the walls and a member of housekeeping walked me back to the elevator that you go down to enter Primo Piatto.

It wouldn't surprise if this is the future of resorts at World, at least under Chapek. Why build another sprawling Grand Floridan with 800+ rooms when you can build a smaller, boutique-style, "luxurious" resort with 300 rooms and have most of the maintenance paid for by DVC members? Then you can slow sell it and charge upwards of $650-950+ per night to stay in a studio on the cash side.

Resale RIV owners may say they dont care about the restrictions until they do. Way to early to get any valid data.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

Am I alone having second thoughts about buying gfv regardless of price?

disney just had a banner quarter, predictions being 2022 will be a great year for park attendance meaning Disney continues to have a great fiscal.

why does this matter. Well disney has taken away perks and raised prices on everything. Despite this revenue is up.

chapek knows what he has and has even announced he expects prices to go up even more in 23.

perks will continue to be removed, prices will go up and up. Disney clearly prefers ticket holders over annual so what if they remove annual passes and stop renewals. They could, they would make more money and the punters will continue to go. More money, higher stock prices

i love Disney world, truly it’s my happy place. But buying into dvc given this, I’m really on the fence

Another way to look at this is that, given the many Disney fans who are giving the company great fiscal marks despite the loss of perks, it's not like you'd be stuck with a worthless timeshare if you later decided WDW was no longer your happy place.

ETA: I totally share your unhappiness about the loss of perks. Still my happy place as well, but I wonder when they'll push too much for me and my family to stop going.
Meanwhile, we're considering adding on at BLT and DL tower (already own at RVA and SSR), knowing that we can turn around and sell it all off if in a few years we decide Disney Parks aren't for us anymore (I specify parks because we're still in love with what the Animation divisions are producing).

 

[sethschroeder]

Resale RIV owners may say they dont care about the restrictions until they do. Way to early to get any valid data.

If RIV follows other resorts it will have about 1% turnover per year to resale.

In the end resale is always going to be a tiny majority for a long long time.

Additonally for someone who buys RIV if they end up not being able to get a room like you can at SSR it just means they have to use the exchange to use up the points and it's the trade off for not buying direct.

 

[sethschroeder]

It's interesting VGF still hasn't went on sale. Interested to see how well it sells and that final price.

 

[BrianLo]

I’m not sure how one can look at how Riviera is selling relative to all of the other DVCs ever and be optimistic about its resale value once the property reaches maturity.

They struggled to sell Grand Californian too!

 

[RamblinWreck]

I really think they will be the current direct rate, but with some incentives.......

That will certainly help sell out RIV if so.

 

[Marionnette]

That will certainly help sell out RIV if so.

And that would be a bad thing?