The VGF 2 pricing thread

[nuhusky123]

When I bought restrictions at riv absolutely played a role in my decision to not buy there And instead I bought at a resort that expires much earlier

 

[Sandisw]

Nobody is talking about the fact that resale restrictions nuke demand for Riviera among savvy buyers who understand that sort of thing. Set aside Skyliner versus Monorail and Resort Studio versus Tower Studio and Topolino's versus Citricos. It's clear even from cash pricing that Disney considers Riviera to be equivalent accomodations to the Grand. But as a deeded real estate product, those resale restrictions make it a fundamentally different contract.

If they hadn't implemented resale restrictions, I think they'd price the two resorts exactly the same. But pricing the same with restrictions in place will make it darn near impossible to sell Riv.

IMO, I am not sure new buyers really even understand or care as many don’t go in wanting to sell short term.

I think think the restrictions have depressed sales to current owners, especially those on here who understand resale exists.

But, once VGF starts selling, we will certainly be able to draw some conclusions once sales data comes in.

 

[Sandisw]

That's why I raised the point about cash prices being comparable between the two. It's clear to me that Disney, at least, regards them as roughly "equal" in terms of amenities.

I don't particularly like either resort, so it's hard for me to weigh them. But as a thought experiment, if AKV Jambo was available with a 2070 expiration and resale restrictions, and AKV Kidani was available as a separate property with a 2064 expiration and no resale restrictions, I would pick AKV Kidani in a heartbeat. I think you're generally correct that most buyers don't care about the restrictions *or* the expiration date, but of the two, I consider the restrictions to be a much bigger deal. I might need or want to sell in 5-10 years, even though I'm not planning on it. A 2064 expiration wouldn't come into play until I'm 75 years old.

But would you pick a resort WITH resale restrictions if it wasn’t a place you want ti stay?

So, if AKV had them but RIV did not and you had to pick one if those, would you then choose RIV?

Same with VGF…if they had made it its own association with restrictions I bet people who really want points there would buy…I still would if price was right.

ETA. I also wonder if the reason they did make it the same association is to see if it gives them info about potentially moving away from that strategy?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

But would you pick a resort without resale restrictions if it wasn’t a place you want ti stay?

I think VGF people and RIV people tend to be the same people.

Heavily themed people: Boulder Ridge, Copper Creek, Animal Kingdom, Poly

Less heavily themed people: Bay Lake Tower, Beach Club, Boardwalk, Riviera, Grand Flo, Old Key West, Saratoga

Those are the two broad "cuts" as far as I see it.

 

[nuhusky123]

I think VGF people and RIV people tend to be the same people.

Fancy people made me laugh

 

[Sandisw]

I think VGF people and RIV people tend to be the same people.

Heavily themed people: Boulder Ridge, Copper Creek, Animal Kingdom, Poly

Less heavily themed people: Bay Lake Tower, Beach Club, Boardwalk, Riviera, Grand Flo, Old Key West, Saratoga

Those are the two broad "cuts" as far as I see it.

I meant to say with restrictions not without. Your example was that you would choose an AKV contract without them over a AKV with them.

But, if AKV is your favorite and it had them, would you choose someplace like RIV that you don’t like to avoid them?

 

[Lorana]

I think VGF people and RIV people tend to be the same people.

Heavily themed people: Boulder Ridge, Copper Creek, Animal Kingdom, Poly

Less heavily themed people: Bay Lake Tower, Beach Club, Boardwalk, Riviera, Grand Flo, Old Key West, Saratoga

Those are the two broad "cuts" as far as I see it.

Fancy people made me laugh

LOL

We are definitely the “Heavily themed people“ category, and definitely not the “fancy people.” Yet we DO own at RIV. This is partly because my husband did like the style of the rooms (in the promo pictures and videos) and we both decided we really wanted an EPCOT area resort…. But we were a little hesitant to purchase a 2042 that BWV and BCV at the current prices (though in hindsight I wish I had picked up 50pts at either one). I was really afraid I wouldn’t like the resort, but I got to tour it last year and feel much better about it after seeing it, even though it’s not really the kind of resort we prefer. Next month we go for our first stay! (Split stay; 2BR LO RIV for 4 nights; 2BR BRV for 5 nights). So I guess I’ll know then how much I love it or not, lol.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I meant to say with restrictions not without. Your example was that you would choose an AKV contract without them over a AKV with them.

But, if AKV is your favorite and it had them, would you choose someplace like RIV that you don’t like to avoid them?

If there were no AKV-type places available without restrictions, I'd probably skip DVC entirely. I'd absolutely skip Direct.

Yet we DO own at RIV.

You own everywhere.

 

[zebsterama]

Nobody is talking about the fact that resale restrictions nuke demand for Riviera among savvy buyers who understand that sort of thing. Set aside Skyliner versus Monorail and Resort Studio versus Tower Studio and Topolino's versus Citricos. It's clear even from cash pricing that Disney considers Riviera to be equivalent accomodations to the Grand. But as a deeded real estate product, those resale restrictions make it a fundamentally different contract.

If they hadn't implemented resale restrictions, I think they'd price the two resorts exactly the same. But pricing the same with restrictions in place will make it darn near impossible to sell Riv.

I would agree, as I'm living proof.

Our family has been (ok, let's be honest I've been ) eyeing to join the DVC full fledged conglomerate after years of renting (feel like a bit of a fool ... in retrospect ). I really thought "Reflections" would be our in. When that went south, we seriously considered Riviera. To put things in perspective, we think the RIV resort is beautiful; we love the look and feel; we love the pool, we love the rooms; my wife is Italian - and the food / feel is exactly what she likes -- clean / simple / sophisticated / classic-but modern. I'll be honest not a huge fan of the view - but love the gondola's and proximity to HS and Epcot.

Why did we buy resale at GF in the summer of 2020?
Two reasons ... #1) We Love GF ... rented/stayed there, and if we could only stay at GF year after year we would be ok with it ... but a huge factor was #2) resale restrictions.

The reality is someday/someone may want/need to sell this DVC timeshare, and that can't be ignored IMO.

Furthermore, I'm one of those crazy people that really sees value in buying direct (let's just say it's a mental-perception issue I'm still trying to work out ); the fact that we are members, but in some ways NOT real members of DVC, kind-of irks me. That being said, buying GF direct at $225 or $255 a point vs. $170ish resale helped me overcome that problem (at least temporarily).

Anyhoo - to your point, if there were no resale restrictions at RIV, I'm almost certain we would have bought there.

 

[zebsterama]

We are not comparing apples to apples. RIV has the resale restrictions while VGF will have 10 less years on its context.

Fair point - I was making that apples to apples argument earlier.

 

[jacec]

Thoughts on this groups POV On a VGF1 resale contract now? I am looking at final decision on a 250 point December UY contract that has DEC21 351 pts, of which 101 are banked from DEC 2020 and full 250 2022 points available. Seller wants $203pp

I currently own AUL & SSR direct contracts with Dec UY.

Really want to be able to book 2BR VGF for post Christmas which is hard to do at 7 months.

 

[Sandisw]

Thoughts on this groups POV On a VGF1 resale contract now? I am looking at final decision on a 250 point December UY contract that has DEC21 351 pts, of which 101 are banked from DEC 2020 and full 250 2022 points available. Seller wants $203pp

I currently own AUL & SSR direct contracts with Dec UY.

Really want to be able to book 2BR VGF for post Christmas which is hard to do at 7 months.

IMO..I would not pay that much for VGF resale until you know the price of VGF direct when sales start again.

If direct comes in under $220…then you may be able to get that contract for less. Or go direct and get a better price.

Most think we are just a few weeks away from finding out!!

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I agree that the resale restrictions have probably impacted Rivera sales. But I think thats ok with Disney because they’re in it for the long haul. In 20-40 years, every resale contract will be restricted as more new resorts get built. And I know this has been discussed a million times before but I can’t wait to see the reactions if Disney decides to have resale restrictions on VGF2. My popcorn bucket is ready!

 

[Sandisw]

I agree that the resale restrictions have probably impacted Rivera sales. But I think thats ok with Disney because they’re in it for the long haul. In 20-40 years, every resale contract will be restricted as more new resorts get built. And I know this has been discussed a million times before but I can’t wait to see the reactions if Disney decides to have resale restrictions on VGF2. My popcorn bucket is ready!

While I don’t think they can do that, if they try it could only apply to the new points deeded to the new building.

I do not think they can go back and apply it to all VGF points as it would be a material change to the contract. I believe the POS requires voting of owners for that?

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

And I know this has been discussed a million times before but I can’t wait to see the reactions if Disney decides to have resale restrictions on VGF2. My popcorn bucket is ready!

If we thought scrolling through 50+ pages was difficult on this board, we won't be able to keep up with the posts if that happens. OMG could you imagine?

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Thoughts on this groups POV On a VGF1 resale contract now? I am looking at final decision on a 250 point December UY contract that has DEC21 351 pts, of which 101 are banked from DEC 2020 and full 250 2022 points available. Seller wants $203pp

I currently own AUL & SSR direct contracts with Dec UY.

Really want to be able to book 2BR VGF for post Christmas which is hard to do at 7 months.

I think that contract won’t sell for much more than $160 once VGF2 goes on sale. It’s a big contract AND they want full direct pricing for it? No thanks.

 

[tjkraz]

There's no question that the resale restrictions have cost DVC sales from a certain type of informed buyer. The question is whether those same rules have allowed DVC to add sales in other areas. Specifically, has the ability to say "you cannot stay at all 15 resorts unless you buy direct from us" become a net positive for sales?

There seems to be a perception that the direct purchase restriction is universally bad for sales. DVC doesn't benefit from enacting policies which blindly punish those who buy resale and drive down aftermarket values. Informed buyers are likely to be more sensitive to resale pricing. Relatively uneducated buyers who tour and consider buying while at WDW will only see value in the idea that a direct purchase is necessary to maximize program flexibility.

*IF* the policy is working as intended, there are more people choosing to buy direct because of the resort access + perks than there are people who run scared from the impact on resale value. And if it's not returning the benefits intended, DVC can always change course.

 

[jacec]

I think that contract won’t sell for much more than $160 once VGF2 goes on sale. It’s a big contract AND they want full direct pricing for it? No thanks.

I appreciate all of this insight, I'm going to wait.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

While I don’t think they can do that, if they try it could only apply to the new points deeded to the new building.

I do not think they can go back and apply it to all VGF points as it would be a material change to the contract. I believe the POS requires voting of owners for that?

I agree. Kinda similar to subsidized dues contracts at Aulani and those without. I think it’s easily possible to deed the new points with restrictions. Honestly, I think it would be in Disney’s best interest to do so. If they didn’t, it wouldn’t be fair for Riviera and would hurt sales there even more. And if the newer points have restrictions, the older VGF1 contracts will probably retain its high resale value.

 

[Nabas]

Thoughts on this groups POV On a VGF1 resale contract now? I am looking at final decision on a 250 point December UY contract that has DEC21 351 pts, of which 101 are banked from DEC 2020 and full 250 2022 points available. Seller wants $203pp

I currently own AUL & SSR direct contracts with Dec UY.

Really want to be able to book 2BR VGF for post Christmas which is hard to do at 7 months.

No, definitely no.

250 points is a larger than average contract, and $203pp is more than the current market even with 101 points from 2020.

We recently bought a smaller VGF1 resale contract with all of its 2020 and 2021 points for appreciably less than $203pp, with the seller paying 2020 and 2021 Maintenance Fees.

We then quickly rented out those 2020 and 2021 points (we didn’t need them) and dropped the net price of our purchase by another $40pp.

With all that we know today, I just can’t imagine VGF2 coming in above $220pp, and I think $207pp is increasingly likely.

Even without VGF2 coming soon, $203pp is (IMO) too much for a larger VGF contract.