The VGF 2 pricing thread

[Sandisw]

Units have tended to vary a lot though in declarations which means no reallocation between unit sizes could be done. So it has to go back to a base of actual villa size unit which was outlined in sales for years and years as the basis. As we've seen from some long time members it was even written out that way in sales material.

That is true. As I said, there seems to be a difference between points for sale...its a deeded unit...vs. how they are put on the points chart and spread about the total resort. Those are two different things and something I have on my list of things to research and learn more about but just have not done it yet. It may or may not be the same.

 

[nuhusky123]

VGF won't be sold out anymore. Of course resale impacts value. Resale is market value.

Right now, there's plenty of supply, more than when I bought in summer 2020. There's no resale firesale on VGF, and I don't see why there would be with this awesome chart. This is great news for VGF. I expected DVC to pump up this chart, I was worried Disney was building a bunch of tiny bungalows. I was pleasantly surprised, and others might be as well. The market will speak for itself in the next few months.

this is basic economics. Right now the supply is finite, as in it cannot grow. THere are no new points for sale today and the only points for sale are resale there for the price is artificially high and the seller can set whatever price they see fit. If someone is willing to pay that price then that is what sellers may sell it for

when 2,000,000 new points enter the market, supply will be increased by 2,000,000. With an increase of such a size this will under the laws of economics decrease the value of existing points thereby decreasing the cost of each point

this is why you cannot look at the cost of resale today as any leading indicator to price in the future. Disney may set their price at $300 or $200 or somewhere between but price will not be driven by resale price today

 

[RoseGold]

Sorry, but if Disney decides to price the new points at $220, those resale prices will take a dive. There has been no evidence, ever, that DVD uses resale prices to decide on new pricing for new rooms.

There's evidence all the time as DVC sets pricing for "sold out" resorts. They keep the spread consistently for all the resorts. But sure, if Disney decides to set VGF at $220 because they are on pixie dust, then the resale price will go down. Heck, I'd buy direct at that.

 

[nuhusky123]

There's evidence all the time as DVC sets pricing for "sold out" resorts. They keep the spread consistently for all the resorts. But sure, if Disney decides to set VGF at $220 because they are on pixie dust, then the resale price will go down. Heck, I'd buy direct at that.

again sold out resort. Supply is limited therefore price is easier to control supply is about to explode. It could take Disney years to sell out gfv2 if they only sell 50,000 points a month which is pretty much what riv is doing

 

[Sandisw]

There's evidence all the time as DVC sets pricing for "sold out" resorts. They keep the spread consistently for all the resorts. But sure, if Disney decides to set VGF at $220 because they are on pixie dust, then the resale price will go down. Heck, I'd buy direct at that.

For sold out resorts, absolutely agree with you there. But, these new rooms being added no longer makes VGF a sold out resort. It will be a resort back in active sales and cant see any reason why that wont be used for DVD to set the overall price.

I just cant see any situation in which they apply the strategy used for pricing a sold out resort to determine the price for a new resort. Who would have thought prior to the pandemic we would have ever seen incentives for a place like BWV?

 

[RoseGold]

this is basic economics. Right now the supply is finite, as in it cannot grow. THere are no new points for sale today and the only points for sale are resale there for the price is artificially high and the seller can set whatever price they see fit. If someone is willing to pay that price then that is what sellers may sell it for

BLT is also in the 180-190s, and Poly is 190-200s. There's no way DVC is going to take a $30 premium for direct points. DVC is competing with itself in the resale market, and they are in no hurry to sell through this, because they have nothing else planned.

If this thing opens at 220, I'm going to need the name of someone's guide.

 

[davidl81]

There's evidence all the time as DVC sets pricing for "sold out" resorts. They keep the spread consistently for all the resorts. But sure, if Disney decides to set VGF at $220 because they are on pixie dust, then the resale price will go down. Heck, I'd buy direct at that.

I mean isn’t the entire point that DVC will price it at a price point that people will pay for it? And even look at RIV right now, resale is about $155 (with the restrictions) and direct is $201 and down to like $180 with incentives. So that’s only a $25-$30 gap.

 

[RoseGold]

And even look at RIV right now, resale is about $155 (with the restrictions)

RIV resale is handful of contracts. BLT/Poly/VGF resale are all holding in the 190s with a lot changing hands.

 

[nuhusky123]

BLT is also in the 180-190s, and Poly is 190-200s. There's no way DVC is going to take a $30 premium for direct points. DVC is competing with itself in the resale market, and they are in no hurry to sell through this, because they have nothing else planned.

If this thing opens at 220, I'm going to need the name of someone's guide.

All sold out resorts. supply is finite for ALL of those

 

[JETSDAD]

RIV resale is handful of contracts. BLT/Poly/VGF resale are all holding in the 190s.

BLT and Poly aren't in the 190's. They're averaging around $170.

 

[nuhusky123]

RIV resale is handful of contracts. BLT/Poly/VGF resale are all holding in the 190s with a lot changing hands.

Riv is the only resort in your list with supply. Resale is low price point and where gfv will end up

blt.poly.vgf sold out resorts with ZERO supply

 

[RoseGold]

All sold out resorts. supply is finite for ALL of those

Supply is finite for all DVC points, and for swampland in Florida. That's about 10.2M points, and VGF2 will be maybe 1.5M in the same category, maybe literally the same category as a huge amount of resale.

 

[nuhusky123]

Supply is finite for all DVC points, and for swampland in Florida. That's about 10.2M points, and VGF2 will be maybe 1.5M in the same category, maybe literally the same category as a huge amount of resale.

no rose thats not how economics works. Riv has supply, gfv will have supply in the form of points to sell

when those points are sold supply will be exhausted. now that said as supply dwindles prices can change and increase but with extensive supply prices must reflect realistic price points to meet supply and demand

price too low and demand is too high. price too high and demand is too low

 

[RoseGold]

If this thing opens at 220, I'm going to need the name of someone's guide.

Scratch that. If this thing opens at 220, I'm going to buy more resale in the 150s again.

 

[davidl81]

Scratch that. If this thing opens at 220, I'm going to buy more resale in the 150s again.

There is not a $70 gap between resale and direct! RIV is not constantly selling for $130pp on resale (and RIV direct can be had at $180 or so direct). It sells for about 150-155. And that is even with RIV having restricted resale. You are fixated on this $70 gap that is not a hard rule. Some sold out resorts sure are at $70, but the active ones are not when you take into account incentives.

 

[JETSDAD]

There is not a $70 gap between resale and direct! RIV is not constantly selling for $130pp on resale (and RIV direct can be had at $180 or so direct). It sells for about 150-155. And that is even with RIV having restricted resale. You are fixated on this $70 gap that is not a hard rule. Some sold out resorts sure are at $70, but the active ones are not when you take into account incentives.

You mean there aren't Aulani contracts coming up at $60-70/pt right now?

 

[RoseGold]

RIV is not constantly selling for $130pp on resale (and RIV direct can be had at $180 or so direct). It sells for about 150-155.

RIV resale is a few contracts, and yea, the spread is low. IMO, the reason for that is the resale restrictions, which makes direct less appealing, and that the price jump for RIV most predicted hasn't happened. Pick any other resort and Disney holds the spread. Well, except poor Aulani, but I'm not supposed to talk about that.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

That is true. As I said, there seems to be a difference between points for sale...its a deeded unit...vs. how they are put on the points chart and spread about the total resort. Those are two different things and something I have on my list of things to research and learn more about but just have not done it yet. It may or may not be the same.

On one rainy day during 2020 I did some hunting down of the units we own in. This was thumbing thru lots of declarations and I didn't note a single resort that the units declared were all identical.

 

[Lorana]

As I said, there seems to be a difference between points for sale...its a deeded unit...vs. how they are put on the points chart and spread about the total resort.

I might be misunderstanding what you mean here, but there should be no difference at all. The POS makes it clear that (1) our points represent our % ownership in the resort, and (2) point charts (ie, "point price to book a room") represent the total cost of booking all rooms in the resort in a given year. Thus, sales points = total points on charts. That was the whole reason Disney has had to amend it's point charts... three times now in the past few years? Because they kept trying to make changes that would inflate the total # of points on the point charts beyond the total points of the resort (beyond the normal calendar changes) and owners noticed and raised it as an issue.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

There's evidence all the time as DVC sets pricing for "sold out" resorts. They keep the spread consistently for all the resorts. But sure, if Disney decides to set VGF at $220 because they are on pixie dust, then the resale price will go down. Heck, I'd buy direct at that.

Historically the best sales tool for a direct purchase is that the price difference to resale at that resort is close or the same. DVC will want to sell these points vs when they have a sold out resort that they really don't want to sell so they price it high enough to make it somewhat worth their while.

If VGF is priced in that $270-$280 mark then IMO it'll only be done because 1 - they want to sell Riviera or 2 - they've raised Riviera to match it.