The Vaccine Discussion Thread

[tidefan]

To the mods - I hope this is on point enough. I am posting in the thread devoted to the vaccine and I think it relates directly to when we can return to cruising.

I know I, and others, have been accused of being overly optimistic (or having our heads in the sand or similar sentiments). I don't even necessarily disagree and I am completely open to the idea that I am being unrealistic as to when things will return to normal. But if it helps me to think there is a light at the end of the tunnel, and this isn't the "new normal" as some people think (and even seem to want sometimes), I'm cool with that. The New York Times Morning Brief made the same point I have been making - the vaccine is being way undersold, which will be harmful to its acceptance. Here is what it said (red emphasis is mine):

Yes, I think it is going better than it seems. For instance, here in Alabama, we are moving into Phase 1B today, even though our "official" inoculation counts are only about 130,000 vaccinated so far, which, of course, USAToday and others jump on as "worst" in the nation a couple of days ago. But there are caveats to that..

First off, Alabama only updates numbers weekly, so yesterday, for instance, we went from around 40,000 to 130,000 once weekly numbers updated. Also, some counties may only record a "vaccination" when the second dose has been administered and some are not. Many states are reporting it per shot. Again, what are you comparing?

Also, as we (and other states) move out of phase 1a (Healthcare), you will see it get out to many more people, and hopefully, cases will start going down.

I do think that you may see a "vaccination passport" in some effect with DCL. Hawaii is looking at it now as there is a proposal that if you have both vaccine shots that you may can bypass the testing requirement. I wonder if DCL could implement something similar. Tests for those not vaccinated, but perhaps relaxed guidelines (maybe even still take a test, but you could do a rapid antigen test, etc) for those that are vaccinated.

 

[sabrecmc]

Thanks for posting that article, brentm77. My parents and aunt are getting their first dose today in Florida through Publix, which was a lot easier than going through the local Dept of Health. Good to read some optimism that is based on science.

 

[jane01jp]

To the mods - I hope this is on point enough. I am posting in the thread devoted to the vaccine and I think it relates directly to when we can return to cruising.

I know I, and others, have been accused of being overly optimistic (or having our heads in the sand or similar sentiments). I don't even necessarily disagree and I am completely open to the idea that I am being unrealistic as to when things will return to normal. But if it helps me to think there is a light at the end of the tunnel, and this isn't the "new normal" as some people think (and even seem to want sometimes), I'm cool with that. The New York Times Morning Brief made the same point I have been making - the vaccine is being way undersold, which will be harmful to its acceptance. Here is what it said (red emphasis is mine):

The info. from the NYT is interesting. First, regarding motivations, we may think we can ascribe motivations to others, but we can never really know.

Second, things like eating together or hugging one's grandchildren are already things that people can do, whether or not they have had the vaccines. Whether one thinks they should do them, or whether the government believes they can mandate whether or not they may do them are different things entirely.

Last, there is very little chance that compliance with any of the suggestions/mandates will improve. They have reached a point of diminishing returns, in my opinion, but alleged non-compliance makes a convenient excuse for the ineffectiveness of all of these mandates.

 

[Intr3pid]

To the mods - I hope this is on point enough. I am posting in the thread devoted to the vaccine and I think it relates directly to when we can return to cruising.

I know I, and others, have been accused of being overly optimistic (or having our heads in the sand or similar sentiments). I don't even necessarily disagree and I am completely open to the idea that I am being unrealistic as to when things will return to normal. But if it helps me to think there is a light at the end of the tunnel, and this isn't the "new normal" as some people think (and even seem to want sometimes), I'm cool with that. The New York Times Morning Brief made the same point I have been making - the vaccine is being way undersold, which will be harmful to its acceptance. Here is what it said (red emphasis is mine):

To be sure, my self-proclaimed optimistic timeline in the post below requires everything in the NYT article to be true:
https://www.disboards.com/threads/q...might-look-like-in-2021.3822894/post-62609786
Including:

But until the pandemic is defeated, all Americans should wear masks in public, help unvaccinated people stay safe and contribute to a shared national project of saving every possible life.

 

[jane01jp]

France, which is notorious for the exceedingly high per-capita use of prescription pills, appears to have very poor reception to the COVID vaccines at this point. See below:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/france...tic-in-covid-19-pandemic-11610971051?mod=e2tw

 

[jane01jp]

This may be good news. This could mean that supplies of vaccines will go further.

Covid infection shown to provide as much immunity as vaccines
https://www.ft.com/content/929ef3cd-8611-49b2-9f23-918dc3470166

People who have already contracted coronavirus are as protected against reinfection as those who have received the best Covid-19 vaccines, according to a survey of 20,000 UK healthcare workers, the largest study in the world so far.

Public Health England regularly tested two matched groups of volunteers between June and November — 6,000 health workers who had previously been infected with coronavirus and 14,000 who had not.

A comparison of infections in the two groups, described in preliminary results released on Thursday, found that prior infection provided at least 83 per cent protection against reinfection. It gave better than 94 per cent protection against symptomatic Covid-19, matching the figures for the most effective Covid-19 vaccines.

 

[brentm77]

To be sure, my self-proclaimed optimistic timeline in the post below requires everything in the NYT article to be true:
https://www.disboards.com/threads/q...might-look-like-in-2021.3822894/post-62609786
Including:

While I think your timeline isn't out of the realm of possibilities, I am not sure it is as optimistic as you think. It accounts for one thing going very wrong - mutations that are not covered by the current vaccine, resulting in innaculation and supply problems during a second round, and maybe additional rounds.

Fortunately, at least so far, two of the three major mutations appear to be covered by the vaccine, and there is a good chance the third is too. Also, future mutations will likely mean a less severe virus, eventually making a vaccine less important.

I am more optimistic than you regarding how quickly the vaccine will start pushing down case numbers. While it will take 60-70% vaccination rates to reach herd immunity, every vaccination is one less person who can be a carrier (likely per the NYT article). Mix in those who have already had it, and I hope most countries with access to the vaccine will see significant improvements in case numbers going into summer.

And though many experts won't yet say this, the fact that the most vulnerable should be vaccinated by then, changes the risk/reward calculation of opening society to more activities again. At some point, we must account for the drop in lethality (and complications) of the virus. It's already changed significantly since last March, yet no experts seem to even acknowledge that it should be considered when making policy decisions. I hope we can at least include that point in future policy decisions, including when it is safe to cruise again and how we may cruise again.

 

[jane01jp]

At some point, we must account for the drop in lethality (and complications) of the virus. It's already changed significantly since last March, yet no experts seem to even acknowledge that it should be considered when making policy decisions. I hope we can at least include that point in future policy decisions, including when it is safe to cruise again and how we may cruise again.

Very good point. In addition to policy decisions, I think that many people will need some coaxing to venture back out, as the ten-month barrage to hunker down may take some time to psychologically reverse.

 

[Intr3pid]

While I think your timeline isn't out of the realm of possibilities, I am not sure it is as optimistic as you think. It accounts for one thing going very wrong - mutations that are not covered by the current vaccine, resulting in innaculation and supply problems during a second round, and maybe additional rounds.

Fortunately, at least so far, two of the three major mutations appear to be covered by the vaccine, and there is a good chance the third is too. Also, future mutations will likely mean a less severe virus, eventually making a vaccine less important.

I am more optimistic than you regarding how quickly the vaccine will start pushing down case numbers. While it will take 60-70% vaccination rates to reach herd immunity, every vaccination is one less person who can be a carrier (likely per the NYT article). Mix in those who have already had it, and I hope most countries with access to the vaccine will see significant improvements in case numbers going into summer.

And though many experts won't yet say this, the fact that the most vulnerable should be vaccinated by then, changes the risk/reward calculation of opening society to more activities again. At some point, we must account for the drop in lethality (and complications) of the virus. It's already changed significantly since last March, yet no experts seem to even acknowledge that it should be considered when making policy decisions. I hope we can at least include that point in future policy decisions, including when it is safe to cruise again and how we may cruise again.

Mutations are a part of every virus, and every pandemic in the past has taken a few cycles to get them under control. The problem with this virus is that it's extremely contagious, which means you can't localize it and open up another part of the country or world - even with a heavy hand such as in China or New Zealand.

There is no doubt the vaccines will push down the case numbers and deaths, but (1) we won't get everyone here a shot or two until this fall, and (2) we will need two more years of shots before the expected mutations are all stamped out.

The NYT article is talking about the effectiveness of vaccines - and the mRNA vaccines are truly remarkable. It's in no way suggesting that we will get rid of all restrictions the moment the first round of shots are completed this fall.

 

[tidefan]

More info on what is being discussed in Hawaii...

https://beatofhawaii.com/vaccination-passport-hawaii-travel-set-to-begin-february/

 

[Cheburashka]

And though many experts won't yet say this, the fact that the most vulnerable should be vaccinated by then, changes the risk/reward calculation of opening society to more activities again.

This. The biggest reason why our society is so paralyzed is not because every citizen is in grave danger, but because a small percentage of people are in grave danger with no protection. Once the most vulnerable have some protection, other factors, such as a functioning economy, our social fabric, mental health, etc., need to take priority again.

 

[jane01jp]

This. The biggest reason why our society is so paralyzed is not because every citizen is in grave danger, but because a small percentage of people are in grave danger with no protection. Once the most vulnerable have some protection, other factors, such as a functioning economy, our social fabric, mental health, etc., need to take priority again.

I believe the true costs of the mandates/lockdowns were explained to the public far less than the purported benefits. A dysfunctional economy, dysfunctional social fabric, and dysfunctional mental health have horrific downsides. Their de-prioritization has increased aggregate vulnerability in my opinion. We may yet win the battle (against COVID) and lose the war (maintaining our civilization and the rule of law).

 

[mevelandry]

This. The biggest reason why our society is so paralyzed is not because every citizen is in grave danger, but because a small percentage of people are in grave danger with no protection. Once the most vulnerable have some protection, other factors, such as a functioning economy, our social fabric, mental health, etc., need to take priority again.

I can’t speak for the US but here in my province (in Canada), 33.7% of the hospitalizations (which is the real problem as it is exhausting our medical resources) are people under the age of 60. I don’t think we’ll be completely out of the woods until everyone that is willing to receive the vaccine receives it.

 

[braysmommy]

More info on what is being discussed in Hawaii...

https://beatofhawaii.com/vaccination-passport-hawaii-travel-set-to-begin-february/

Considering how many times Hawaii has changed the rules I wouldn't count on this happening by February. We are flying to Hawaii end of June and while 2 out of the 3 of us will have had the vaccine I'd be ok getting a state approved test if needed. Wish the one I get twice a week for work was approved but oh well.

 

[brentm77]

Mutations are a part of every virus, and every pandemic in the past has taken a few cycles to get them under control.

Do you have an example of a previous pandemic that had an extremely effective vaccine that had to be adjusted to mutations for several cycles to get the pandemic under control? I know of adjustments post-pandemic, but none to actually control the pandemic. Many pandemics never had an effective vaccine and naturally ended within years of starting.

(2) we will need two more years of shots before the expected mutations are all stamped out.

Where are you getting this information? I may be missing it, but it isn't something I have read. So far, I think the general consensus is that there is a fair chance the existing vaccines will work against mutations due to the way this virus mutates, and even if the vaccine doesn't offer perfect protection against mutations, it could reduce the severity of infections.

The NYT article is talking about the effectiveness of vaccines - and the mRNA vaccines are truly remarkable. It's in no way suggesting that we will get rid of all restrictions the moment the first round of shots are completed this fall.

I am not sure if you are implying that that is how I represented it, but I don't think I did. It is my personal argument that we should be in a position to heavily alter policy after the most vulnerable are vaccinated, and that we should see a material change in cases with increasing vaccinations, even before we reach herd immunity.

Dr. Fauci seems to agree with me. In December, Dr. Fauci said that "if the vaccination campaign goes well, we could approach herd immunity by summer’s end and 'normality that is close to where we were before' by the end of 2021." Obviously, the campaign has gotten off to a rocky start, and he specifically says it is subject to widespread willingness to vaccinate, but I still see no reason it can't get back on track. Even if we run months behind what Facui was predicting, that doesn't put us into many years before we return to normal. And he certainly isn't saying mutations are going to take us two years to stamp out, as you state above. I have read other well-regarded experts predicting that we will shift from the pandemic stage to the endemic stage in the next few months.

We have a fundamental difference of opinion on what to expect at this point. I understand your argument, but I think it is more of a worst-case scenario than the optimistic timeline you think it is. I also think there is only so much tolerance for continued closures of businesses and the like, and if the vaccine doesn't get us to normal this year, people will demand it anyway - particularly after the vulnerable have been protected. Time will tell.

 

[brentm77]

I can’t speak for the US but here in my province (in Canada), 33.7% of the hospitalizations (which is the real problem as it is exhausting our medical resources) are people under the age of 60. I don’t think we’ll be completely out of the woods until everyone that is willing to receive the vaccine receives it.

It's probably close to that in the U.S. But two points come to mind.

First, lumping everyone under 60 into one group is a bit misleading, since the age of hospitalization drops steeply not far below that. In other words, if after you vaccinate everyone over 60, you vaccinate everyone between 50 and 60, you will see another huge drop in hospilizations just from that group. Down to 40, and you are down to very very low levels of hospilizations.

Second, while I haven't run the math, I suspect that by taking away 2/3's of hospitalizations, you have put the virus into a danger threshold that now begins to resemble other respiratory diseases (or possibly better than many). In any case, you have solved the problem over overcrowded hospitals, which is a huge achievement towards making the virus less of an issue for humanity generally.

 

[mevelandry]

It's probably close to that in the U.S. But two points come to mind.

First, lumping everyone under 60 into one group is a bit misleading, since the age of hospitalization drops steeply not far below that. In other words, if after you vaccinate everyone over 60, you vaccinate everyone between 50 and 60, you will see another huge drop in hospilizations just from that group. Down to 40, and you are down to very very low levels of hospilizations.

Second, while I haven't run the math, I suspect that by taking away 2/3's of hospitalizations, you have put the virus into a danger threshold that now begins to resemble other respiratory diseases (or possibly better than many). In any case, you have solved the problem over overcrowded hospitals, which is a huge achievement towards making the virus less of an issue for humanity generally.

Down to 40 represents 16-17% (half of the 33.7%) (It’s only « good news« if influenza stays low). They say they are those who stay at the hospital the longest.

-In my province, they are currently vaccinating people living in long term care facilities (1) and people working in hospitals (2).

And then:
3) People living in retirement homes
4) People from the great north and/or first nations
5) 80 yo+
6) 70 yo+ (My in-laws, who we cruise with a lot)
7) 60 yo+
8) 60 yo- with conditions (my husband, possibly)
9) 60 yo- being essential workers (me, possibly)
10) General population that did not get vaccinated

I don’t expect #8 to be done before June. Not sure what it means for cruises that stop in Canada. :/

Not really expecting it to be safe to travel until the summer.

Unless, this start going much faster everywhere...

 

[Cheburashka]

I can’t speak for the US but here in my province (in Canada), 33.7% of the hospitalizations (which is the real problem as it is exhausting our medical resources) are people under the age of 60. I don’t think we’ll be completely out of the woods until everyone that is willing to receive the vaccine receives it.

Old age is one of the primary factors; the other primary factor is obesity. In the U.S., 50% of hospitalized cases are people who are clinically obese. Once these groups (the elderly & those with major underlying health conditions, particularly obesity) are vaccinated, Covid will be much less of a societal threat.

 

[jane01jp]

Old age is one of the primary factors; the other primary factor is obesity. In the U.S., 50% of hospitalized cases are people who are clinically obese. Once these groups (the elderly & those with major underlying health conditions, particularly) are vaccinated, Covid will be much less of a societal threat.

In light of obesity being a major risk factor, it strikes me as very strange that gyms are closed in so many places. I am trying my best to stay just under the obese classification.

 

[jane01jp]

According to statistics compiled by IHME, yesterday's US COVID-19 cases were at their lowest levels since November 9.