The Vaccine Discussion Thread

[Intr3pid]

I'm not sure I agree. If you take recent death rates for the US and compare them to Europe, they are similar. For the week ended December 5, the comparisons are as follows:

US - 15,550 deaths/331.7 million population = 4.69 deaths/million population

Italy - 5,151 deaths/60.4 million population = 8.52 deaths/million population
Austria - 739 deaths/9.0 million population = 8.19 deaths/million population
Belgium - 803 deaths/11.6 million population = 6.92 deaths/million population
UK - 2,984 deaths/68.0 million population = 4.39 deaths/million population
France - 2,751 deaths/65.3 million population = 4.21 deaths/million population
Switzerland - 703 deaths/17.1 million population = 4.10 deaths/million population
Germany - 2,598 deaths/11.6 million population = 3.10 deaths/million population
Netherlands - 336 deaths/17.1 million population = 1.96 deaths/million population
Aggregate for the above 8 nations - 16,065 deaths/332.6 million population = 4.83 deaths/million

So, early mobilization issues in Italy do not explain the current comparisons.

I don't understand the purpose of the comparisons in the week of December 5.

Let's take Italy.

The virus today has reached most of Italy. Their new cases have peaked at about 35,000 in the current wave. In March/April, the virus was limited to just a few regions, with the new cases peaking at around 5,000. The number of deaths are roughly the same in the two wave peaks, so you have a CFR today which is just 5/35 = ~15% of what it was in March/April. In other words, you had the same number of people dying in March/April in Italy as today except they died in just a 15% portion of the population. Why? See the answer in my prior post.

And it's an apples-to-oranges comparison. You are comparing US - one country, one sovereign nation - with a continent that has 40 countries each of which can potentially make its own, even conflicting decision whether to lock down or not.

 

[jane01jp]

I don't understand the purpose of the comparisons in the week of December 5.

Let's take Italy.

The virus today has reached most of Italy. Their new cases have peaked at about 35,000 in the current wave. In March/April, the virus was limited to just a few regions, with the new cases peaking at around 5,000. The number of deaths are roughly the same in the two wave peaks, so you have a CFR today which is just 5/35 = ~15% of what it was in March/April. In other words, you had the same number of people dying in March/April in Italy as today except they died in just a 15% portion of the population. Why? See the answer in my prior post.

And it's an apples-to-oranges comparison. You are comparing US - one country, one sovereign nation - with a continent that has 40 countries each of which can potentially make its own, even conflicting decision whether to lock down or not.

The purpose of the comparison in the week of December 5 is to compare the current situation in Europe to the current situation in the US.

We have a state-by-state approach, just like Europe. Our states can - and do - make conflicting decisions, just like the European countries. I don't consider comparative CFRs to be of much use, since testing is not consistent across time and by country.

 

[Intr3pid]

The purpose of the comparison in the week of December 5 is to compare the current situation in Europe to the current situation in the US.

We have a state-by-state approach, just like Europe. Our states can - and do - make conflicting decisions, just like the European countries. I don't consider comparative CFRs to be of much use, since testing has changed so much since March/April.

No, they cannot. The state of California cannot prohibit a resident of the state of NY - a US citizen - from entering. They can ask them to quarantine and test them, but that's all. Conversely, a state cannot unilaterally allow entry to a foreign national when that person is prohibited entry to the US. These are the definitions of lockdowns, which, say, Italy can do, but France doesn't have to.

Like I said, there is no contextual point to the December 5 comparison between the US and Europe - other than for academic interest. Yes, they have similar death rates. But they are also in a similar economic hole. In stark contrast with the Asian examples I provided.

 

[ruadisneyfan2]

No, they cannot. The state of California cannot prohibit a resident of the state of NY - a US citizen - from entering. They can ask them to quarantine and test them, but that's all. Conversely, a state cannot unilaterally allow entry to a foreign national when that person is prohibited entry to the US. These are the definitions of lockdowns, which, say, Italy can do, but France doesn't have to.

Like I said, there is no contextual point to the December 5 comparison between the US and Europe - other than for academic interest. Yes, they have similar death rates. But they are also in a similar economic hole. In stark contrast with the Asian examples I provided.

I believe that the difference with Asian countries is in their culture. They have a more obdient nature about them, a more 'sacrifice one's individual's needs for the greater good' attitude which is stark contrast to most Americans. Their government also demands a much higher rate of compliance, in other words, their people have no rights to freedom. I read on Quora a personal account of a young, Chinese lady's family having a household member with Covid. There is no, 'please quarantine and stay in one bedroom/bathroom of your house'. No. They come in and take everyone out of the home, put each of them in their own hotel room and served food twice per day, sealed in the room, and monitored for symptoms and/or progression of disease and intervene if medical help is needed. Wait 14 days and see if anyone contracted the virus from their family member and go home if negative.
This crap would NEVER flush here in the US. Seriously, there would be a Revolutionary War II before this happened. Our culture is based on individual freedom and our country was founded by rebels. I don't know for certain but I would not be surprised if the Chinese governement forces the vaccine on all residents. If they did, her people would obediently comply.

America will never be like Asian countries so compare all you like but there's no point. It's like telling Europe to end their culture and be more like the Asians. European culture is part of who they are and they're fiercely protective of it.

 

[princessmommyx3]

I believe that the difference with Asian countries is in their culture. They have a more obdient nature about them, a more 'sacrifice one's individual's needs for the greater good' attitude which is stark contrast to most Americans. Their government also demands a much higher rate of compliance, in other words, their people have no rights to freedom. I read on Quora a personal account of a young, Chinese lady's family having a household member with Covid. There is no, 'please quarantine and stay in one bedroom/bathroom of your house'. No. They come in and take everyone out of the home, put each of them in their own hotel room and served food twice per day, sealed in the room, and monitored for symptoms and/or progression of disease and intervene if medical help is needed. Wait 14 days and see if anyone contracted the virus from their family member and go home if negative.
This crap would NEVER flush here in the US. Seriously, there would be a Revolutionary War II before this happened. Our culture is based on individual freedom and our country was founded by rebels. I don't know for certain but I would not be surprised if the Chinese governement forces the vaccine on all residents. If they did, her people would obediently comply.

America will never be like Asian countries so compare all you like but there's no point. It's like telling Europe to end their culture and be more like the Asians. European culture is part of who they are and they're fiercely protective of it.

I also believe the deaths are much lower in the Asian countries than the US because the obesity rate is so much lower - about 3% in Japanese adults vs. 40% of US adults.

 

[ruadisneyfan2]

I'm not sure I agree. If you take recent death rates for the US and compare them to Europe, they are similar. For the week ended December 5, the comparisons are as follows:

US - 15,550 deaths/331.7 million population = 4.69 deaths/million population

Italy - 5,151 deaths/60.4 million population = 8.52 deaths/million population
Austria - 739 deaths/9.0 million population = 8.19 deaths/million population
Belgium - 803 deaths/11.6 million population = 6.92 deaths/million population
UK - 2,984 deaths/68.0 million population = 4.39 deaths/million population
France - 2,751 deaths/65.3 million population = 4.21 deaths/million population
Switzerland - 703 deaths/17.1 million population = 4.10 deaths/million population
Germany - 2,598 deaths/11.6 million population = 3.10 deaths/million population
Netherlands - 336 deaths/17.1 million population = 1.96 deaths/million population
Aggregate for the above 8 nations - 16,065 deaths/332.6 million population = 4.83 deaths/million

So, early mobilization issues in Italy do not explain the current comparisons.

I agree. The media likes to point out our huge numbers and compare them to countries with a much smaller population or less dense population but they are comparing total numbers so of course our numbers are much higher. All of Canada's population is equivalent to California alone. NY City has almost twice as many people as all of Norway. When you calculate American Covid RATES (per capita) and death rates, we are very similar to many other countries, despite having a more densely populated country in many instances.

It seems like our media just thrives on trying to make all of us feel bad about us a country and about ourselves. It seems like they want to make us look bad compared to the rest of the world. I read somewhere that studies have shown higher levels of depression and anxiety in people who watch a lot of news. Having it available non stop, 24/7 doesn't help matters. Lately, I have stepped back and cut way down on the news. If something big happens, like 9/11, I'll hear it from my husband or patients.

 

[Intr3pid]

I believe that the difference with Asian countries is in their culture. They have a more obdient nature about them, a more 'sacrifice one's individual's needs for the greater good' attitude which is stark contrast to most Americans. Their government also demands a much higher rate of compliance, in other words, their people have no rights to freedom. I read on Quora a personal account of a young, Chinese lady's family having a household member with Covid. There is no, 'please quarantine and stay in one bedroom/bathroom of your house'. No. They come in and take everyone out of the home, put each of them in their own hotel room and served food twice per day, sealed in the room, and monitored for symptoms and/or progression of disease and intervene if medical help is needed. Wait 14 days and see if anyone contracted the virus from their family member and go home if negative.
This crap would NEVER flush here in the US. Seriously, there would be a Revolutionary War II before this happened. Our culture is based on individual freedom and our country was founded by rebels. I don't know for certain but I would not be surprised if the Chinese governement forces the vaccine on all residents. If they did, her people would obediently comply.

America will never be like Asian countries so compare all you like but there's no point. It's like telling Europe to end their culture and be more like the Asians. European culture is part of who they are and they're fiercely protective of it.

Yes and no. Asia is not just China. While you can explain China by its draconian lockdown measures (hence, my 'eye roll'), there are other success stories in Asia as well. The provided examples of South Korea and Japan (add Vietnam and Thailand) prove that you don't have to be an authorotative regime to contain the virus. They are not throwing people in jail in Japan or trampling their fundamental rights.

Beyond cultural reasons, one of the key is learning from experience. The countries with success have experienced pandemics before, and they know exactly what to do. The reason for compliance among the population is that they know it's real and they have seen it before. That knowledge also allows them to rise above politicizing it. That US political comedy would never flush in Asia - to take your quote.

You can see the differences among Asian nations too - those with and without experience. Take India's example. The second hardest hit COVID country in the world actually shares a border with China. Yet, it has struggled with this virus.

Whether it take experience or political will or a cultural difference, the lesson is in the results. As I said, if you are concerned about your economy, control the virus first.

 

[Intr3pid]

I agree. The media likes to point out our huge numbers and compare them to countries with a much smaller population or less dense population but they are comparing total numbers so of course our numbers are much higher. All of Canada's population is equivalent to California alone. NY City has almost twice as many people as all of Norway. When you calculate American Covid RATES (per capita) and death rates, we are very similar to many other countries, despite having a more densely populated country in many instances.

The populations in the countries you are quoting are concentrated in cities just like those in the US. Toronto (in Canada), for example, is more densely populated than Chicago, Philadelphia, Miami, or pretty much any city in Texas.

More importantly, there is little evidence of the population density playing a negative role in COVID death rates:
https://www.jhsph.edu/news/news-rel...-is-linked-to-lower-covid-19-death-rates.html

"For their analysis, the researchers examined SARS-CoV-2 infection rates and COVID-19 death rates in 913 metropolitan counties in the U.S. When other factors such as race and education were taken into account, the authors found that county density was not significantly associated with county infection rate.

The authors also found that denser counties, as compared to more sprawling ones, tended to have lower death rates—possibly because they enjoyed a higher level of development including better health care systems."

 

[sethschroeder]

So in a recent interview with a state health official they are talking about not planning on general public vaccines until mid-2021 at the earliest and that's just to start general public vaccines after healthcare workers, front line workers, and then at risk get access the first rounds of vaccines.

 

[brentm77]

So in a recent interview with a state health official they are talking about not planning on general public vaccines until mid-2021 at the earliest and that's just to start general public vaccines after healthcare workers, front line workers, and then at risk get access the first rounds of vaccines.

What state? What interview? Healthcare workers in many states are expected to start getting vaccinated as early as this month, and early in the next year. In Utah, they expect to have it available to anyone who wants it in the general public by June.

 

[sethschroeder]

What state? What interview? Healthcare workers in many states are expected to start getting vaccinated as early as this month, and early in the next year. In Utah, they expect to have it available to anyone who wants it in the general public by June.

Wisconsin and it was done by a local paper but I would have to search for it again. It was expected this month they will start with Healthcare workers but there are like 450k healthcare workers in the state alone. They also are only allocated like 50k-70k vaccines (mostly the Pfizer vaccine) at this point to cover 25k-35k of those workers.

I know some people were trying to say April anyone could have it if they wanted it was just outlining what I had heard here. Also lots of questions it sounds like with the states plan as well but I think some of that comes from unknown quantities of the vaccine being allocated to the state.

Being pragmatic that if we get to June before the first person can get the vaccine its going to be a few months to give it out to everyone who wants it. Then after you get your first shot it still takes a couple weeks before you can get your second shot. Thats why I am just pointing to 2022 where as I think others want to be more optimistic with the timeline.

 

[tidefan]

Wisconsin and it was done by a local paper but I would have to search for it again. It was expected this month they will start with Healthcare workers but there are like 450k healthcare workers in the state alone. They also are only allocated like 50k-70k vaccines (mostly the Pfizer vaccine) at this point to cover 25k-35k of those workers.

I know some people were trying to say April anyone could have it if they wanted it was just outlining what I had heard here. Also lots of questions it sounds like with the states plan as well but I think some of that comes from unknown quantities of the vaccine being allocated to the state.

Being pragmatic that if we get to June before the first person can get the vaccine its going to be a few months to give it out to everyone who wants it. Then after you get your first shot it still takes a couple weeks before you can get your second shot. Thats why I am just pointing to 2022 where as I think others want to be more optimistic with the timeline.

It seems like these numbers change all the time. Here in Alabama, they expected to have 112,000 doses of Pfizer on Friday, then it was 40,000 and yesterday they said it was 47.500. However, they also said that they would be getting additional vaccine each week from Pfizer. They also said that they expect to have more than that of Moderna available next Friday if it is approved by FDA. I think until we actually see the FDA approval it will take a couple of weeks into this to get a better handle on the timeline...

 

[Wakey]

Some good news stories today here in UK, don’t know if you have seen them there. The first person in the Western World to get an approved vaccine was a very fit 90 year old lady who only stopped working 4 years ago and has been in hospital for an operation.
Second was an elderly man called William Shakespeare who ironically lives in the same county as the famous one did.

 

[gotomu212]

It seems like these numbers change all the time. Here in Alabama, they expected to have 112,000 doses of Pfizer on Friday, then it was 40,000 and yesterday they said it was 47.500. However, they also said that they would be getting additional vaccine each week from Pfizer. They also said that they expect to have more than that of Moderna available next Friday if it is approved by FDA. I think until we actually see the FDA approval it will take a couple of weeks into this to get a better handle on the timeline...

I think Phase I is going to go comparatively well since healthcare workers are already present at distribution points and can be pretty tightly organized and scheduled, and long term facilities have the residents right there and they are coming to them. When we get to having to schedule people to show up and organize how to record information and coordinate second doses it’s going to be a bit of a cluster for a few weeks. I think there’s going to be a big disconnect between when healthcare workers get it (very very soon) and when the “anyone who wants one” will be able to get it. States are already starting to push that date back a little (I was hearing March, April, and by June done with everyone and now I’m hearing June, July, August to actually get to the “anyone” phase from several different states). The amount available and how that’s going to be distributed has been shifting a lot too.

Its still good news and shots will start going into arms very soon...but I think some thought this would progress very quickly and the logistics of this (and with many many states and localities straining for funds) is going to be a challenge where the rubber meets the road.

 

[tidefan]

I think Phase I is going to go comparatively well since healthcare workers are already present at distribution points and can be pretty tightly organized and scheduled, and long term facilities have the residents right there and they are coming to them. When we get to having to schedule people to show up and organize how to record information and coordinate second doses it’s going to be a bit of a cluster for a few weeks. I think there’s going to be a big disconnect between when healthcare workers get it (very very soon) and when the “anyone who wants one” will be able to get it. States are already starting to push that date back a little (I was hearing March, April, and by June done with everyone and now I’m hearing June, July, August to actually get to the “anyone” phase from several different states). The amount available and how that’s going to be distributed has been shifting a lot too.

Its still good news and shots will start going into arms very soon...but I think some thought this would progress very quickly and the logistics of this (and with many many states and localities straining for funds) is going to be a challenge where the rubber meets the road.

I think that depends on the definition of "anyone". From what I hear, urban areas with cold storage, that may happen sooner, if you are in a very rural area, it could be later...

 

[Intr3pid]

FDA seems to be suggesting an at least 52% efficacy after just the first Pfizer dose - which puts it in line with the single flu shot. And it might lead some to not return (or be recommended) for the second dose - particularly if they start experiencing some of the more pronounced side effects.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/fda...ccine-data-did-not-raise-safety-concerns.html

 

[tidefan]

FDA seems to be suggesting an at least 52% efficacy after just the first Pfizer dose - which puts it in line with the single flu shot. And it might lead some to not return (or be recommended) for the second dose - particularly if they start experiencing some of the more pronounced side effects.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/fda...ccine-data-did-not-raise-safety-concerns.html

I am actually seeing reports from the BBC that the first shot is up to 89%.

Although two doses are needed to offer full protection, the first jab prevented 89% of the most severe cases.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55228421

 

[AquaDame]

They also are only allocated like 50k-70k vaccines (mostly the Pfizer vaccine) at this point to cover 25k-35k of those workers.

Depending on where you are those 50-70K doses will not be held over to give those same workers a second dose. It is assumed more doses are on the way so they will use every one of each initial batch on individuals.

Edited to add this may change as we move later into 2021 as apparently we did not secure further pfizer doses apparently? Wild.

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/sci...hance-lock-more-pfizer-vaccine-doses-n1250357

 

[lanejudy]

FDA seems to be suggesting an at least 52% efficacy after just the first Pfizer dose - which puts it in line with the single flu shot. And it might lead some to not return (or be recommended) for the second dose - particularly if they start experiencing some of the more pronounced side effects.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/fda...ccine-data-did-not-raise-safety-concerns.html

Our health commissioner just stated on a press conference today that they (the health department) has zero ability to not recommend a 2nd dose. The initial roll-out is to healthcare and senior facilities, so essentially captive audiences who will essentially have the vaccine brought to them. He also indicated that the first shipment of vaccines will only arrive as 50%, with the other 50% reserved for those who receive a 1st dose.

I think they may be hoping for a single-dose vaccine by the time "general public" is allowed.

Depending on where you are those 50-70K doses will not be held over to give those same workers a second dose. It is assumed more doses are on the way so they will use every one of each initial batch on individuals.

Edited to add this may change as we move later into 2021 as apparently we did not secure further pfizer doses apparently? Wild.

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/sci...hance-lock-more-pfizer-vaccine-doses-n1250357

Interesting -- our health commissioner has been saying for a couple of weeks that we'll only actually receive 50% of the initial shipment because they are required to hold the 2nd dose for the same person.

 

[tvguy]

I think Phase I is going to go comparatively well since healthcare workers are already present at distribution points and can be pretty tightly organized and scheduled, and long term facilities have the residents right there and they are coming to them. When we get to having to schedule people to show up and organize how to record information and coordinate second doses it’s going to be a bit of a cluster for a few weeks. I think there’s going to be a big disconnect between when healthcare workers get it (very very soon) and when the “anyone who wants one” will be able to get it. States are already starting to push that date back a little (I was hearing March, April, and by June done with everyone and now I’m hearing June, July, August to actually get to the “anyone” phase from several different states). The amount available and how that’s going to be distributed has been shifting a lot too.

Its still good news and shots will start going into arms very soon...but I think some thought this would progress very quickly and the logistics of this (and with many many states and localities straining for funds) is going to be a challenge where the rubber meets the road.

I will be surprised if Phase I goes well, give, as @AquaDame posted, they are only getting HALF the number of vaccines that they expected.