The star wars spoiler thread

Well.... depends on how you are counting. :D

Avatar's initial release is $749 Million... they picked up an additional $11 million in an IMAX/3D release later the next year before they released the 3D Blu-Ray.

So, for initial runs, the official official is $749. If you follow the link, you can see the full breakdown. Some sites use the "lifetime" number, but most records are based off initial runs only.
 

I don't agree with the "American" comment, but lets check it out.

Over performing:
$133 Million in UK. $99 for Jurassic World.
$80 Million in Germany. $48 for Jurassic World.
$66 Million in France. $41 for Jurassic World.
$51 Million in Australia. $38 for Jurassic World.

Under Performing:
$46 Million in Japan. $74 for Jurassic World.
$9 Million in Hong Kong. $13 for Jurassic World.
$21 Million in Brazil. $29 for Jurassic World.
$24 in Mexico. $42 for Jurassic World.

No Numbers:
China (release 1/9)
India (released 12/25, no numbers, but reportedly underperforming)

So... to be fair. Star Wars is playing favorably (by a lot) in what is traditionally white Western countries. It is playing slightly behind in Latin America. And is woefully behind in Asian countries.

So... the "problem" for Star Wars or Disney is that it doesn't perform well in growth markets. So, Star Wars land in Paris? Great. Star Wars land in Tokyo, Shanghai, or Hong Kong? Not so much.

But, it is not strictly a "US" film.
 
Way too early to tell where it ends up globally. Also, there is already a few other countries that Star Wars has beaten Avatar (Finland for example) a number of others that will very soon (United Kingdom for example) and it still way too early. Sure it probably won't have the same legs as Avatar, but we don't know. We have no movie in the past to base it on, to use their numbers to compare. It is in uncharted territory, as no movie has made this much this quick. Even internationally it is still too early to tell. And with China opening soon, that could change things, good or bad, too. To this point, no movie has performed even close to star wars, so whose to say what will happen tomorrow. You can make the numbers say a million different things right now.

I for one still think a lot is to be learned about how far it goes. There is still at least one, maybe two holidays in its future, and little competition, and people that keep seeing it over and over again. How will movie goers react if it is a hit in China, it may push the foreign market more. Point is we just don't know.
 
So... to be fair. Star Wars is playing favorably (by a lot) in what is traditionally white Western countries. It is playing slightly behind in Latin America. And is woefully behind in Asian countries..

Yes it is more accurate to say that Star Wars is a western phenomenon. Which is not that surprising when you consider the bulk of the myths it was appropriating...
 
I am just happy to see it doing so well. It is setting standards for movies to come with Star Wars, Star Trek, Avatar along with others!
 
I was more talking about "furious 7"...which took in less than $350 mil in North American and close to $1.15 billion elsewhere...

Avatar $2 bil overseas. Star Wars is about a 50/50 split and won't touch the 2.7 mark. Not that it should...but if it was as well received outside of NATO...it would have destroyed that number
 
I was more talking about "furious 7"...which took in less than $350 mil in North American and close to $1.15 billion elsewhere...

Avatar $2 bil overseas. Star Wars is about a 50/50 split and won't touch the 2.7 mark. Not that it should...but if it was as well received outside of NATO...it would have destroyed that number

The international split is creeping up, and if it does well in China it may get up to 55% but clearly it appeals mostly to people who speak English (even if as a second language). I guess Fast & Furious just works on a more visual level. :D
 
The international split is creeping up, and if it does well in China it may get up to 55% but clearly it appeals mostly to people who speak English (even if as a second language). I guess Fast & Furious just works on a more visual level. :D

If you're trying to say that "furious" is whizz bang garbage for the mindless...then I agree with you.

The best proof is that the other action movie of highest quality on the list - the dark knight - has the next closest number to Star Wars in North American/international ratio.

It's rare I'll say this about anything...but I think Americans might be "smarter" on movies
 
I think it's a little early to definitively say TFA can't catch the international record. But if it does it will be in large part due to its domestic takings.

Still, it hasn't opened in China yet and that could account for $100 million plus on its own. It's projected to achieve the largest 4th weekend of all time this weekend and it's only had one day in its entire run so far where it earned less than Avatar (which was still pulling in money in March).

Is there really any competition to stop TFA continuing to draw through the rest of January?

First place is a long shot, but a $1 billion domestic take is certainly possible and that would guarantee it the number 2 slot worldwide.
 
I think it's a little early to definitively say TFA can't catch the international record. But if it does it will be in large part due to its domestic takings.

Still, it hasn't opened in China yet and that could account for $100 million plus on its own. It's projected to achieve the largest 4th weekend of all time this weekend and it's only had one day in its entire run so far where it earned less than Avatar (which was still pulling in money in March).

Is there really any competition to stop TFA continuing to draw through the rest of January?

First place is a long shot, but a $1 billion domestic take is certainly possible and that would guarantee it the number 2 slot worldwide.
but it s clearly slowing at a faster rate than avatar did
but you re right its still early to say it wont catch Avatar although i dont think it will if i had to guess, either way it doesnt matter its been a great success
 
Interesting in its first 3 weekends, it would be #1, #12 and #47 of all time opening weekends.

3 weeks to #1 domestic? Holy Moly I doubt anyone predicted that would ever be possible. Hats off to Iger and Disney.
 
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This weekend will be interesting... but a day to day comparison shows Star Wars running about 10% higher than Avatar on Day 19. This weekend will really be a good indicator of longevity.

After Week 2 - Star Wars had $651 Million, Avatar had $283 Million.

Avatar made $466 Million in initial run after Week 2. If Star Wars makes that, we're looking at over $1.1 Billion.

So how does Week 3 compare?
Avatar Week 3 = $380 Million ($97 Million in Week 3)
Star Wars Week 3 = Projected $770 Million ($119 Million in Week 3)

As of Week 3 Star Wars is still running higher than Avatar.

Looking forward (Avatar):
Week 4 - $70 Million
Week 5 - $66 Million
Week 6 - $48 Million
Week 7 - $40 Million
Week 8 - $31 Million
Week 9 - $34 Million
Week 10 - $21 Million
Week 11 - $20 Million (Crossed $700 Million this week)


The real question is how Star Wars plays going forward. Can it hold in the $30-$40 Million range or higher for the next 6 weeks? I feel like the US market isn't going to hold it for that time period... you have to assume Avatar held because of "curiosity". It'll be interesting to watch.

I think domestically... it slides quickly. But even assuming a rapid drop... $900 Million seems assured. But, I think we'll know more this weekend. If it gets $50 Million this weekend... then $1 Billion is possible. If its closer to $25-$30 Million, then $900 Million is more likely.
 















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