The return of annual passes

[ChipnDale79]

Yesterday was day 17 in a row of touring plan observed crowd level 1 park level. That is unheard of pre-pandemic. A lot of that is undoubtedly the delta variant, but some of that may be people starting to tell Disney something.

well, anyone know how the crowds are at Uni? that would help tell us something.

 

[wdw_dine_junkie]

Yes, you can use up to 2 Disney gift cards per transaction for an AP purchase. Disney gift cards max out at $1000 per card.

If you need to buy more than 1 gift card, you can do 2 transactions to purchase using 4 gift cards. Do not lose those gift cards though if you buy online or over the phone. Disney claims they require you to present your method of purchase when you activate your AP in person. They have never asked me for them when activating - but that is what is in the fine print.

There are no details on repercussions for no-showing a Park Pass reservation but it may be the same as DLR, more info will probably come out on or before 9/8/21.

Can you use gift cards on AP renewals online too? I usually just pay the per month payment plan and never really looked at the other payment options, but I am considering gift cards for the $200 one time payment part (or maybe all of it if bjs or sams is having gift cards deals)

 

[Douglas Dubh]

well, anyone know how the crowds are at Uni? that would help tell us something.

A friend posted Hagrid’s was a walk on the other evening.

 

[Liquidice]

Based on the earlier increase of 70% for a DVC Member's trip I decided to do a comparison of costs for all of the recent price hikes for APs and non-APs between the 2019 prices and 2021/22 prices. I used June 2019 and June 2022 to compare.

It doesn't include the price for food or merchandise since those can be wildly different and extremely difficult to track the price changes.

For tickets, I assumed you would buy a 7-day park hopper for a 7-day once a year trip. For 2x 7 day trips, it is assumed that it is cheaper to buy the Annual Pass instead. I used UT prices for the 2021/2022 ticket prices but had to use historical average prices for 2019 since the prices are not well documented (I took the highest and lowest price of a 7-day park hopper ticket and averaged it for 2019).

I did assume that you would pay for Genie+ every day of your park trip to emulate what was previously included in FastPass+ and I assumed you would take Mears Connect as the replacement for Magical Express.

I also assumed you'd buy 4 Magicbands, for $9.99 each (previously free) - but the $40 cost here is negligible in the larger scheme of things.

The % increase is calculated between each trip. You can see the change in price is vastly different depending on your situation.

But what it also shows is that ticket prices will likely be going up very soon, they have not seen the same large % increase that a lot of other things have.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ddhMbzDII1TduyEm_heCE3JXwmLkKSmjecVP-DIb4l4/edit?usp=sharing

 

[wolfawk]

Based on the earlier increase of 70% for a DVC Member's trip I decided to do a comparison of costs for all of the recent price hikes for APs and non-APs between the 2019 prices and 2021/22 prices. I used June 2019 and June 2022 to compare.

It doesn't include the price for food or merchandise since those can be wildly different and extremely difficult to track the price changes.

For tickets, I assumed you would buy a 7-day park hopper for a 7-day once a year trip. For 2x 7 day trips, it is assumed that it is cheaper to buy the Annual Pass instead. I used UT prices for the 2021/2022 ticket prices but had to use historical average prices for 2019 since the prices are not well documented (I took the highest and lowest price of a 7-day park hopper ticket and averaged it for 2019).

I did assume that you would pay for Genie+ every day of your park trip to emulate what was previously included in FastPass+ and I assumed you would take Mears Connect as the replacement for Magical Express.

I also assumed you'd buy 4 Magicbands, for $9.99 each (previously free) - but the $40 cost here is negligible in the larger scheme of things.

The % increase is calculated between each trip. You can see the change in price is vastly different depending on your situation.

But what it also shows is that ticket prices will likely be going up very soon, they have not seen the same large % increase that a lot of other things have.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ddhMbzDII1TduyEm_heCE3JXwmLkKSmjecVP-DIb4l4/edit?usp=sharing

Great breakdown. Based on your calculations, if you are DVC, if you go at least twice it is well worth it for the AP. If only once, probably not.

 

[Liquidice]

Can you use gift cards on AP renewals online too? I usually just pay the per month payment plan and never really looked at the other payment options, but I am considering gift cards for the $200 one time payment part (or maybe all of it if bjs or sams is having gift cards deals)

I think you can, just because I have done other transactions using the Disney World website (like Very Merriest tickets) and used gift cards before, but since I'm DVC, I always have to buy my APs over the phone (the website isn't capable of seeing I qualify for the Gold or Sorcerer Pass).

 

[Chilbert]

Can you use gift cards on AP renewals online too? I usually just pay the per month payment plan and never really looked at the other payment options, but I am considering gift cards for the $200 one time payment part (or maybe all of it if bjs or sams is having gift cards deals)

BJ's currently has 4% off (until 9/6 then probably goes back to 3%) + if you use Discover cashback via PayPal (accepted by BJ's) you can save another 5% (on up to $1,500).
Other cards may have similar deals this quarter for PayPal or Warehouse clubs...

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Yeah, but that has jsut started. It may be the sign of a sharp decline in demand for sure, but for most of this summer, people have been in a frenzy to do to Disney. The surge may be ending though, but it's hard to say just yet.

Yeah, we need more data to be sure, but the numbers don't look great for Disney right now. Nobody is currently going to their parks and haven't been for 17 days. I've watched some streams. Nearly everything is walk on or 5 minute waits.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

well, anyone know how the crowds are at Uni? that would help tell us something.

Good point. I think that does tell us a lot actually. Here's Universal's TP historical crowd calendar per touringplans versus Disney's:

8/30/21: UOR 2, Dis 1
8/29/21: UOR 2, Dis 1
8/28/21: UOR 4, Dis 1
8/27/21: UOR 3, Dis 1
8/26/21: UOR 2, Dis 1
8/25/21: UOR 2, Dis 1
8/24/21: UOR 3, Dis 1
8/23/21: UOR 3, Dis 1
8/22/21: UOR 2, Dis 1
8/21/21: UOR 6, Dis 1
8/20/21: UOR 3, Dis 1
8/19/21: UOR 5, Dis 1
8/18/21: UOR 6, Dis 1
8/17/21: UOR 5, Dis 1
8/16/21: UOR 3, Dis 1
8/15/21: UOR 4, Dis 1
8/14/21: UOR 5, Dis 1
8/13/21: UOR 6, Dis 1

Looks to me that Chapek might be making a bit of a miscalculation here... 17 Days in a row of Disney crowd level 1's. 17 days of Universal not hitting a crowd level 1 even once and going as high as a crowd level 6. That appears to me to be powerful evidence that people are off of Disney right now.

 

[Moushe]

@Disneyfan754321 Here are the blackout dates that you were looking for


As a holder of Silver I never visit over the summer. It's just too hot. Now it looks like my ability to pay less to skip summers is gone

https://cdn1.parksmedia.wdprapps.disney.com/dam/disney-world/passes/Pixie-Dust-Pass.pdf
https://cdn1.parksmedia.wdprapps.disney.com/dam/disney-world/passes/Pirate-Pass.pdf
https://cdn1.parksmedia.wdprapps.disney.com/dam/disney-world/passes/Sorcerer-Pass.pdf

same here, and our favorite time to visit is Thanksgiving, now we can only do if we are willing to pay close to $4K for the four of us.

 

[Chumpieboy]

And Disney has put a huge amount of innovation into their existing theme parks in the last few years, and are in the middle of a massive renovation of Epcot. I guess I just don’t agree with the argument that Disney hasn’t invested in the parks.

And that's only after a ~10 year stagnation period where almost nothing was built. Universal's HP land(s) pushed WDW into these most recent improvements.

 

[ChipnDale79]

And that's only after a ~10 year stagnation period where almost nothing was built. Universal's HP land(s) pushed WDW into these most recent improvements.

this is true, i remember people coming onto this forum complaining about the price increases then, and the lack of things being added to the parks. there was a big turn around on that.

 

[brent02139]

Good point. I think that does tell us a lot actually. Here's Universal's TP historical crowd calendar per touringplans versus Disney's:

8/30/21: UOR 2, Dis 1
8/29/21: UOR 2, Dis 1
8/28/21: UOR 4, Dis 1
8/27/21: UOR 3, Dis 1
8/26/21: UOR 2, Dis 1
8/25/21: UOR 2, Dis 1
8/24/21: UOR 3, Dis 1
8/23/21: UOR 3, Dis 1
8/22/21: UOR 2, Dis 1
8/21/21: UOR 6, Dis 1
8/20/21: UOR 3, Dis 1
8/19/21: UOR 5, Dis 1
8/18/21: UOR 6, Dis 1
8/17/21: UOR 5, Dis 1
8/16/21: UOR 3, Dis 1
8/15/21: UOR 4, Dis 1
8/14/21: UOR 5, Dis 1
8/13/21: UOR 6, Dis 1

Looks to me that Chapek might be making a bit of a miscalculation here... 17 Days in a row of Disney crowd level 1's. 17 days of Universal not hitting a crowd level 1 even once and going as high as a crowd level 6. That appears to me to be powerful evidence that people are off of Disney right now.

thanks for that comparison. Thing is, unless I’m wrong, Disney doesn’t go back or revert to prior pricing. They would rather stick to it and give discounts or dining deals, to draw the crowds. I just think that’s a lose-lose for all

 

[CaptAwesome]

Someone may have brought this up, but the lack of crowds could also be people waiting until the 50th to go. Why go now when they can delay a month or two and go during the 50th?

 

[jkh36619]

Someone may have brought this up, but the lack of crowds could also be people waiting until the 50th to go. Why go now when they can delay a month or two and go during the 50th?

It was the same way about a month before SWG opened as well.

 

[jmakesmagic]

We have a trip planned for November (10 day park hopper tickets). We purchased through Disney so it’s letting me modify the dates online. I’d like to squeeze in a trip before HEA goes away. In theory, I should be able to modify my ticket dates to a date in September and then upgrade to an AP at guest services when I get there, correct?

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Someone may have brought this up, but the lack of crowds could also be people waiting until the 50th to go. Why go now when they can delay a month or two and go during the 50th?

Yeah, but I mean, what is really happening for the 50th that they don't have now? A different fireworks show? 30 minutes of crappy early entry? Genie+ which seems to be pretty universally reviled right now? I don't think that's it.

 

[Narcoossee11]

Someone may have brought this up, but the lack of crowds could also be people waiting until the 50th to go. Why go now when they can delay a month or two and go during the 50th?

I think this is a HUGE fact. plus Delta , school time and weather.

 

[brent02139]

Someone may have brought this up, but the lack of crowds could also be people waiting until the 50th to go. Why go now when they can delay a month or two and go during the 50th?

True, that’s a draw for sure. If you look at the park reservation system, 50A is in demand. But the day following that just drops off like a stone. And back to green rest of the month. I would bet, not just vacationers, but a lot of locals are planning to be there.

 

[Liquidice]

Yeah, but I mean, what is really happening for the 50th that they don't have now? A different fireworks show? 30 minutes of crappy early entry? Genie+ which seems to be pretty universally reviled right now? I don't think that's it.

Plus 50 gold statues just to show you where Disney is using all of that extra AP and Genie+ money.