The Poly2 Pricing Thread

[ehh]

If I were DVC I'd be saying, if it's the same association, what's stopping people from buying resale? Unless we price the tower aggressively, we're going to have to do another sale like we did with Grand Floridian this summer to bring our direct price a lot closer to resale pricing to be competitive.

Supply/demand pressures on resale inventory stops people from buying resale.

Said another way, existing resale inventory is too small to meaningfully compete with direct sales. Furthermore, any surge in demand will raise prices (steering buyers back to direct) and possibly reduce supply if potential sellers retain instead of sell.

 

[intamin]

Supply/demand pressures on resale inventory stops people from buying resale.

Said another way, existing resale inventory is too small to meaningfully compete with direct sales. Furthermore, any surge in demand will raise prices (steering buyers back to direct) and possibly reduce supply if potential sellers retain instead of sell.

I say all of this as a potential resale buyer of Poly if it's the same association. If it's available via resale, I don't mind waiting for it and won't feel in a rush to buy. Inventory always comes back. When VDH sales went live and everyone found out about transient tax, everyone rushed to go buy VGC. It's now back and in the 260s-270s with a decent amount of inventory.

As a whole though, you're probably right that there are far fewer points on the resale market but those will continue to be replenished. Even past competing with the resale market though, if DVC doesn't start adding more resale restricted properties people will continue to say things like "Oh, at Disney World the only DVC resorts I'm excluded from is Riviera and the Cabins at Fort Wilderness? That's fine. I don't care about those resorts. I can still stay at the other 9" like they have about Riviera for the past 3 years. This expands past just resale purchases of Poly by the way, people say this stuff when buying their resale SSR contract and etc. If you don't add more excluded inventory, people don't feel like they're missing out on anything by purchasing resale.

 

[Sandisw]

Supply/demand pressures on resale inventory stops people from buying resale.

Said another way, existing resale inventory is too small to meaningfully compete with direct sales. Furthermore, any surge in demand will raise prices (steering buyers back to direct) and possibly reduce supply if potential sellers retain instead of sell.

Except there was decent VGF on the resale market and DVD was not selling it at a great rate. Outside of the initial surge, it certainly seemed like buyers were going resale instead.

What sparked sales this summer is when they did have to reduce it in price to complete with resale. I guess we will see soon!

 

[jakecaputo]

Except there was decent VGF on the resale market and DVD was not selling it at a great rate. Outside of the initial surge, it certainly seemed like buyers were going resale instead.

What sparked sales this summer is when they did have to reduce it in price to complete with resale. I guess we will see soon!

And they did start to ROFR VGF, an active property. They could always do that with Poly if the tower ends up the same association.

 

[Sandisw]

And they did start to ROFR VGF, an active property. They could always do that with Poly if the tower ends up the same association.

I agree. If we see them start taking PVB, it leads me to lean back to same association so that the resale price can go up to get it closer to what they will want to sell Poly tower for next year.

 

[BrianLo]

Supply/demand pressures on resale inventory stops people from buying resale.

Said another way, existing resale inventory is too small to meaningfully compete with direct sales. Furthermore, any surge in demand will raise prices (steering buyers back to direct) and possibly reduce supply if potential sellers retain instead of sell.

I agree, in the short term a revelation that Poly 1/2 are the same association leads to a spike in Poly resales and prices. Medium term though, the competition between the two (direct sales versus a moderate resale volume) pushes resale prices even lower than they are. Active direct sales tend to really drive resale prices down.

It will have such a huge pool of points it would truly tip the resort into possible SAP territory. Poly already likely is more SAP than it’s given credit for, as evidenced by the lack of competition owners have in their window.

If it’s same, I’m personally waiting on the sidelines for the resale contracts to settle if there is an initial surge of interest.

 

[jakecaputo]

If it’s same, I’m personally waiting on the sidelines for the resale contracts to settle if there is an initial surge of interest.

If it's the same, and prices near each other like VGF did, I may sell my resale and repurchase direct.

 

[maui22]

I say all of this as a potential resale buyer of Poly if it's the same association. If it's available via resale, I don't mind waiting for it and won't feel in a rush to buy. Inventory always comes back. When VDH sales went live and everyone found out about transient tax, everyone rushed to go buy VGC. It's now back and in the 260s-270s with a decent amount of inventory.

If it’s true resale restricted resorts prices drop more than other resorts, would it be worth waiting 2-3 years to buy tower restricted points?

 

[Jack Kerouac]

We own Poly resale and we treat it like this: 33% of our stay will be Poly Lake View and the remainder will be a 1BR elsewhere. We love the Poly, but we also like more room.

And I have no plans to stay at the new tower. Might as well be VGF 3.0, it’s that close.

Then again, I’m a proven liar/fabricator. So you’ll probably see me in the Poly 2 lobby, direct owner rich but too few points poor. Which is why I’m in the lobby and not an actual room.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

If it’s true resale restricted resorts prices drop more than other resorts, would it be worth waiting 2-3 years to buy tower restricted points?

That is what I would do if I was certain I only wanted to use them at Poly tower…but I think there’s enough uncertainty in my future travel plans that I’d rather buy PVB resale than Poly Tower resale at the same price (if they are different associations). I’ll consider buying direct if they are the same association, but if they are different, I expect PVB to hold its value better then direct tower points for at least the next decade.

 

[MarkNC2Disney]

We own Poly resale and we treat it like this: 33% of our stay will be Poly Lake View and the remainder will be a 1BR elsewhere. We love the Poly, but we also like more room.

And I have no plans to stay at the new tower. Might as well be VGF 3.0, it’s that close.

Then again, I’m a proven liar/fabricator. So you’ll probably see me in the Poly 2 lobby, direct owner rich but too few points poor. Which is why I’m in the lobby and not an actual room.

lol all this

 

[KimMcGowan]

I have gone back and forth and now lean toward new association. However, that may be because I love the Poly we bought - lack of bigger room options (I am not including Bungalows - I can never afford those) included. I am not sure I want new purchases to create a studio shortage.

 

[BrianLo]

If it's the same, and prices near each other like VGF did, I may sell my resale and repurchase direct.

That makes sense. I'd just be looking at a small contract, so the direct pricing is pretty locked to 230 (or whatever it will be). With some ability to pick up a more loaded contract than direct at I assume a discount.

Really, I guess I am in the end hoping for same association as a strict new buyer. Though I still lean towards it would be smarter for DVC to make them different.

 

[AwfulWaffle]

…..but do you really want to change monorails twice to get to Epcot?

If it meant not missing my rail to the park in the morning then absolutely.

 

[snystedt]

Have there been any updates on when Poly II will be going on sale and if it will be the same or separate association?

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

Have there been any updates on when Poly II will be going on sale and if it will be the same or separate association?

No. This board will be lit up like a Christmas Tree when the news hit!

 

[Sandisw]

No. This board will be lit up like a Christmas Tree when the news hit!

I am now predicting we will get info next month! In time to make it coordinate with lighting up like a Christmas tree!!! lol

Three things I am watching…release of point charts for 2025, DVC annual meeting on Dec 7th and the updates done year end to the POS documents.

 

[LittleBitGoofy]

I am now predicting we will get info next month! In time to make it coordinate with lighting up like a Christmas tree!!! lol

Three things I am watching…release of point charts for 2025, DVC annual meeting on Dec 7th and the updates done year end to the POS documents.

Do the point charts usually get released each December? (First year of DVC here.) Thanks. Will be curious to see how much that throws around my future years projecting for estimating point usage a few years out.

 

[CarolynFH]

Do the point charts usually get released each December? (First year of DVC here.) Thanks. Will be curious to see how much that throws around my future years projecting for estimating point usage a few years out.

Yes, they usually come out in December. They have come out later occasionally - they don't absolutely have to come out until late January, in time for owners to book December 26-January 2, which would be the earliest reservation possible that included the night of January 1.

Edited - I'm sure that's confusing. I mean the points charts have to be out by late January so that on January 26 owners can book December 26-January 2.

 

[LittleBitGoofy]

Yes, they usually come out in December. They have come out later occasionally - they don't absolutely have to come out until late January, in time for owners to book December 26-January 2, which would be the earliest reservation possible that included the night of January 1.

Edited - I'm sure that's confusing. I mean the points charts have to be out by late January so that on January 26 owners can book December 26-January 2.

Gotcha. That makes sense. Thank you!