The Poly DVC, then what?

[cbnsoul]

I follow Tikiman's pages pretty regularly and there is talk that the Poly DVC rooms may be done by the end of the year. From what I've seen, Poly points could be available for sale as early as this Fall (assuming, of course, the Poly is done sooner than later). This got me thinking, if the Poly is going to open within the next year, and sells as quickly as expected, doesn't DVC need to be doing at least some site work on the NEXT DVC property?

There were plans going around before the Poly was announced that were thought to be for a DVC property on the old River Country site. Such a project would take MAJOR infrastructure work and take quite a long time to build, especially given the fact that I'm guessing DVC will want to build a larger resort. I would think if there was some activity, either some other plans would be leaked online or we'd see actual building activity.

Just thought it would be fun to speculate on what's next and where you think they will (or should) build?

 

[Dean]

I follow Tikiman's pages pretty regularly and there is talk that the Poly DVC rooms may be done by the end of the year. From what I've seen, Poly points could be available for sale as early as this Fall (assuming, of course, the Poly is done sooner than later). This got me thinking, if the Poly is going to open within the next year, and sells as quickly as expected, doesn't DVC need to be doing at least some site work on the NEXT DVC property?

There were plans going around before the Poly was announced that were thought to be for a DVC property on the old River Country site. Such a project would take MAJOR infrastructure work and take quite a long time to build, especially given the fact that I'm guessing DVC will want to build a larger resort. I would think if there was some activity, either some other plans would be leaked online or we'd see actual building activity.

Just thought it would be fun to speculate on what's next and where you think they will (or should) build?

IF they're going to stay active they're likely already in the major planning stages. They could go back and reconsider the larger Poly project as a phase II or the leaked FW project which would sit where the current coral and BBQ do now. Those would seem to be the most likely but there are MANY possibilities. With small projects like the Poly or VGF, there really isn't much reason to wait very long purposefully for larger projects. They have plenty of land and there are spots here and there by current projects that are workable. We'll see.

 

[tjkraz]

...if the Poly is going to open within the next year, and sells as quickly as expected...

Umm...so how quickly is it "expected" to sell??

Every DVC resort that's debuted over the last 10 years seems to have people believing that they'll miss out if they don't buy right away. Disney has a funny way of using high nightly point requirements and ever-rising prices to mitigate demand. Brisk sales = price increases

As for future resorts, could be any / all of the following:

- New Poly buildings
- Ft. Wilderness
- Second Contemporary tower
- Yacht Club
- Convert moderate to DVC
- Additional units at older resort (Beach Club, Wilderness Lodge, etc.)
- New stand-alone DVC property

And they'll eventually build something else at Disneyland, too.

 

[MJ6987]

Anyone else think Port Orleans would be good? Seems to be the most popular of the moderates. As long as the points were lower to reflect the fact it's a moderate.

 

[cbnsoul]

Tim, I think the consensus has always been that the Poly would sell very quickly. You hear a lot more "If they ever build at the Poly, I'm buying points for sure!" quotes than I can ever recall for other resorts. Course, I wasn't reading the boards back when BCV, VWL, BLT came out so maybe that was said about those resorts too.

I agree that DVC can throttle sales by increasing point requirements and prices but they have to be careful. What you charge for the Poly or VGF may not sell well at all if it's for a standalone resort that's not on the monorail. Do you lower prices or point requirements for such a resort or keep prices and points high and tolerate slower sales (and thus, less money).

I would expect that Disney will want to continue the reported money stream that DVC provides. If so, I would guess we would see some "proof" that something is in the pipeline sooner rather than later.

 

[tjkraz]

Anyone else think Port Orleans would be good? Seems to be the most popular of the moderates. As long as the points were lower to reflect the fact it's a moderate.

Don't confuse use of a Moderate property for DVC with a "Moderate DVC." They could easily demolish existing guest rooms and rebuild to expected DVC villa standards.

Caribbean Beach and Coronado Springs are the two most oft mentioned targets.

Tim, I think the consensus has always been that the Poly would sell very quickly. You hear a lot more "If they ever build at the Poly, I'm buying points for sure!" quotes than I can ever recall for other resorts. Course, I wasn't reading the boards back when BCV, VWL, BLT came out so maybe that was said about those resorts too.

I agree that DVC can throttle sales by increasing point requirements and prices but they have to be careful. What you charge for the Poly or VGF may not sell well at all if it's for a standalone resort that's not on the monorail. Do you lower prices or point requirements for such a resort or keep prices and points high and tolerate slower sales (and thus, less money).

I would expect that Disney will want to continue the reported money stream that DVC provides. If so, I would guess we would see some "proof" that something is in the pipeline sooner rather than later.

Of course, people who claim they will buy Poly immediately have no idea how many points it will take for a single night nor the cost for each point.

DVC still has half of the Grand Floridian to sell. While we don't know the exact configuration of the Poly, the 360-ish hotel rooms being converted plus 20 new bungalows puts it at least 50% larger than VGF in terms of rooms.

DVC has never been afraid of tiered pricing. Since its debut VGF has been priced higher than AKV or Aulani with no incentives ever offered. Disney is going to wring every dime it can out of the Poly, knowing that future resorts may command a lower price.

Resort features like expected popularity, amenities and location have always been used in calculating point requirements. Saratoga and Animal Kingdom Villas have lower nightly costs than comparable rooms at BoardWalk or Beach Club.

 

[Dean]

Anyone else think Port Orleans would be good? Seems to be the most popular of the moderates. As long as the points were lower to reflect the fact it's a moderate.

As I've stated before, I believe DVC could build successful resorts at moderate AND value locations though I haven't seen a lot of interest from DVD in that direction unless you count the FW locations.

Tim, I think the consensus has always been that the Poly would sell very quickly. You hear a lot more "If they ever build at the Poly, I'm buying points for sure!" quotes than I can ever recall for other resorts. Course, I wasn't reading the boards back when BCV, VWL, BLT came out so maybe that was said about those resorts too.

I agree that DVC can throttle sales by increasing point requirements and prices but they have to be careful. What you charge for the Poly or VGF may not sell well at all if it's for a standalone resort that's not on the monorail. Do you lower prices or point requirements for such a resort or keep prices and points high and tolerate slower sales (and thus, less money).

I would expect that Disney will want to continue the reported money stream that DVC provides. If so, I would guess we would see some "proof" that something is in the pipeline sooner rather than later.

Nothing to date has sold out in less than a year at WDW that I am aware of. BCV was 13 months and VWL 18 months. I'm not sure about VGC. I doubt VGF or Poly will break that stretch though both should be just around or over a year. The next few years should be interesting.

 

[disneynutz]

I don't see DVC building at the moderate locations. The locations aren't deluxe, the infrastructure isn't deluxe, and they would end up charging more money for less.

The new DVC management may have changed DVC's fast pace of building resorts and they may not have the same level of corporate support that they had before.

Should be interesting to see what happens.

Bill

 

[WilsonFlyer]

Nothing to date has sold out in less than a year at WDW that I am aware of. BCV was 13 months and VWL 18 months. I'm not sure about VGC. I doubt VGF or Poly will break that stretch though both should be just around or over a year. The next few years should be interesting.

I agree to the extent that DVC needs to do something innovative like AKV was. Although all of the recent additions have been pretty and desireable, it's going to take something new to continue to inspire future growth. I know many may disagree, but DVC is turning into much of the same old, same old.

At some point in the future, it is going to cease to be in Disney's best interest to continue to build DVCs for fear of hurting hotel sales. I'm sure we're not to that point yet but we cannot dismiss the fact over the long haul. You're already taken a significant group who traveled often to FL and taken them out of play from hotel sales. You can't convince me that those numbers aren't starting to matter. They'll never get us back and we're already paid up for 50 years. That has to start to matter after a while.

 

[tjkraz]

I don't see DVC building at the moderate locations. The locations aren't deluxe, the infrastructure isn't deluxe, and they would end up charging more money for less.

There wasn't much "Deluxe" about the Disney Institute before it became Saratoga Springs.

Coronado Springs has two restaurants, one of the better pools in all of WDW, convention facilities (which could either be maintained or repurposed) and all of the other necessary infrastructure. In terms of resort amenities, CSR compares favorably to both SSR and OKW. Wouldn't take much to get Caribbean Beach up to that level either.

Since the opening of Art of Animation, WDW has been overbuilt in that price range accommodation. Given the manner in which DVC cannibalizes the cash hotel market, strategic downsizing has long been part of the playbook (Disney Institute, AKV, Contemporary Garden Wing, Poly.)

 

[tjkraz]

At some point in the future, it is going to cease to be in Disney's best interest to continue to build DVCs for fear of hurting hotel sales. I'm sure we're not to that point yet but we cannot dismiss the fact over the long haul. You're already taken a significant group who traveled often to FL and taken them out of play from hotel sales. You can't convince me that those numbers aren't starting to matter. They'll never get us back and we're already paid up for 50 years. That has to start to matter after a while.

I suspect they will continue to sell DVC as long as they can sell for whatever they regard as an acceptable price.

Hotel business is more profitable in the long run...but that's a very long game. Most numbers show that the break-even on a direct DVC purchase is something like 10-12 years. Effectively, Disney is getting the equivalent of 10+ years of hotel revenue up front. Many buyers finance, which represents additional revenue for Disney.

If not for DVC, how many guests would still be returning as hotel guests annually for 10+ years at a stretch?

DVC is also a major hedge against economic downturn for Disney. While many owners were forced to sell or bank points in '08-09, many more continued to make those trips despite a severely struggling economy.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Tim, I think the consensus has always been that the Poly would sell very quickly. You hear a lot more "If they ever build at the Poly, I'm buying points for sure!" quotes than I can ever recall for other resorts. Course, I wasn't reading the boards back when BCV, VWL, BLT came out so maybe that was said about those resorts too.
.

Would you please like to bet on it? Sales people and buyers all were convinced that BLT would sell out in 6 months. And certainly in less than a year. It didn't even come close.

As I've stated before, I believe DVC could build successful resorts at moderate AND value locations though I haven't seen a lot of interest from DVD in that direction unless you count the FW locations.

Nothing to date has sold out in less than a year at WDW that I am aware of. BCV was 13 months and VWL 18 months. I'm not sure about VGC. I doubt VGF or Poly will break that stretch though both should be just around or over a year. The next few years should be interesting.

Since VGF has now been selling for almost 14 months the BCV record is safe. VWL may be too although didn't that reopen for sales for a bit? I know we toured it in late 2005.

I wish that VGC has sold faster so that DVC would have another project ready to start at DL but they may also have some option to take back rooms from the hotel side that were done during that build. They are mentioned in the POS offering but I don't know what would be involved to add them into DVC.

 

[cbnsoul]

Would you please like to bet on it? Sales people and buyers all were convinced that BLT would sell out in 6 months. And certainly in less than a year. It didn't even come close.

If it takes 2 years to declare Poly sold out (which would mean it didn't sell overly quickly), DVC would still probably have to be physically building (likely site prep rather than true building) about the time Poly opened to have the new property done before the Poly sold out, if they are planning a whole new resort. Granted, re-configuring a current resort, as they are largely doing with the Poly, wouldn't take as long.

I don't think they would want to run the risk of getting things started too late. If you are DVC, the worst situation is to have this marketing machine with nothing new to sell.

 

[McCrae]

Anyone else think Port Orleans would be good? Seems to be the most popular of the moderates. As long as the points were lower to reflect the fact it's a moderate.

Can't see this happening....unless buy in prices are high or restrictions are put on usage.

 

[AZMermaid]

I read Disney recently bought a bunch of land near DL, but supposedly for another parking garage. I'm holding out hope the purchase was DVC related!

 

[donaldbuzz&minnie]

I suspect they will continue to sell DVC as long as they can sell for whatever they regard as an acceptable price.

Hotel business is more profitable in the long run...but that's a very long game. Most numbers show that the break-even on a direct DVC purchase is something like 10-12 years. Effectively, Disney is getting the equivalent of 10+ years of hotel revenue up front. Many buyers finance, which represents additional revenue for Disney.

If not for DVC, how many guests would still be returning as hotel guests annually for 10+ years at a stretch?

DVC is also a major hedge against economic downturn for Disney. While many owners were forced to sell or bank points in '08-09, many more continued to make those trips despite a severely struggling economy.

Not to mention the fact that Disney is cramming more and more visitors into aging parks. With no new parks on the horizon to absorb the massive crowds and thus the need to funnel guests into lots of advance planning - tightening down on fastpasses to make it possible for everyone to get to a least a few of the good rides, making restaurant reservations months in advance - not everyone will see Disney as a way to relax and have a good spontaneous time, especially considering the rising ticket prices. Even if the average DVC owner cuts back on park time, shopping and eating out, DVC'ers have a vested interest in continuing to spend their vacation $ with Disney that other guests simply don't have.

 

[Sammie]

I don't see DVC building at the moderate locations. The locations aren't deluxe, the infrastructure isn't deluxe, and they would end up charging more money for less.

The new DVC management may have changed DVC's fast pace of building resorts and they may not have the same level of corporate support that they had before.

Should be interesting to see what happens.

Bill

What does CSR or POR lack that OKW and SSR have? They both have a much better quick service than OKW. The only thing I can think of is basketball court, etc. Easy to build a fantastic recreational area for the DVC portion.

 

[Dean]

I don't see DVC building at the moderate locations. The locations aren't deluxe, the infrastructure isn't deluxe, and they would end up charging more money for less.

The new DVC management may have changed DVC's fast pace of building resorts and they may not have the same level of corporate support that they had before.

Should be interesting to see what happens.

Bill

As noted, SSR and OKW are somewhat in moderate locations and more like the moderates in other ways as well. AKV is to a degree as well.

I agree to the extent that DVC needs to do something innovative like AKV was. Although all of the recent additions have been pretty and desireable, it's going to take something new to continue to inspire future growth. I know many may disagree, but DVC is turning into much of the same old, same old.

At some point in the future, it is going to cease to be in Disney's best interest to continue to build DVCs for fear of hurting hotel sales. I'm sure we're not to that point yet but we cannot dismiss the fact over the long haul. You're already taken a significant group who traveled often to FL and taken them out of play from hotel sales. You can't convince me that those numbers aren't starting to matter. They'll never get us back and we're already paid up for 50 years. That has to start to matter after a while.

IMO there are a lot of things they can do to increase sales in a number of areas. Generally it comes down to price (points vs cost), desirability (many options here) and the sales system itself (DVD has generally done a poor job in this area IMO). And for those that question it, yes it's possible to jump up sales pressure a lot and still meet the Disney standards and be professional.

Would you please like to bet on it? Sales people and buyers all were convinced that BLT would sell out in 6 months. And certainly in less than a year. It didn't even come close.



Since VGF has now been selling for almost 14 months the BCV record is safe. VWL may be too although didn't that reopen for sales for a bit? I know we toured it in late 2005.

I wish that VGC has sold faster so that DVC would have another project ready to start at DL but they may also have some option to take back rooms from the hotel side that were done during that build. They are mentioned in the POS offering but I don't know what would be involved to add them into DVC.

IIRC they announced VWL sold out at 12 months anticipating it would sell to those who insisted on it and members but it didn't and they had to reopen sales. My recollection was they reopened a few months later and were more appropriately sold out at 18 months. It would likely have been less had they remained in open sales. As for BLT, anyone expecting sell out even in a year was on something. Likely the same group who were convinced it'd be the cheapest long term because of lower dues.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

As for BLT, anyone expecting sell out even in a year was on something. Likely the same group who were convinced it'd be the cheapest long term because of lower dues.

Haha - probably correct.

I looked back at a poll I did 1 week after sales started for members. The majority of those who responded to it were a bit more realistic than I remembered, but there were still a few.....

7 months or less 4 2.40%
8-12 months 8 4.79%
13-18 months 28 16.77%
19-24 months 54 32.34%
More than 2 years 62 37.13%
No opinion, I'll just wait and see 11 6.59%

As it happened BLT began sales in Sept of 2008. They stopped actively marketing and doing any discounts in July of 2011 which is usually what prompts the "sold out" statement so just short of 2 years 10 months.

 

[Sur]

I know many may disagree, but DVC is turning into much of the same old, same old.

except to newbies...then it's new new (and exciting)!