The New Hampshire Primary thread

[Zippa D Doodah]

As we look toward Tuesday, what's everyone's thoughts? Some of my random musings:

...Obama may have won himself the nomination and the presidency with last night's speech. The guy hit a homerun. Of course Iowa settles nothing, but it may not belong before the Dem nomination becomes a foregone conclusion.

... Clinton is in a real tough spot in NH right now. Polls show her leading by 4-6% but insiders say those numbers are shaky to begin with because they don't reflect a heavy enough concentration of independent voters -and independents will show up for Obama. This means Obama will get more bang for his buck, if you will, with even a slim NH victory.

... What makes people vote for Huckabee? Are they attracted to his Fair tax platform (like I am) or is his base truly made up solely of evangelicals and homeschoolers?

... I heard Rush Limbaugh say something very insightful last night -although I am not nearly as paranoid as he. His theory is that the MSM/Dems want Huckabee to win the nomination and see him defeated in a general election which would -in theory -once and for all eliminate the electoral significance of conservative Christians. Can't say as I buy that wholesale, but I fell asleep last night thinking on it.

... My early fearless prediction for NH: Obama by 6% (so long HRC); Romney by 8% over McCain

 

[Poohgirl]

Im a (still undecided) NH independent and I can tell you I have been getting MUCH more campaigning (calls, mail, invites etc) from Obama then Clinton, or any of the republicans for that matter. It would not surprise me in the least if Obama wins by a much larger percentage then expected. And although Nh is familiar with Romney last election McCain had some big numbers here.

ETA: I also think Huckabee may be a bit too conservative for NH and will not do as well here.

 

[NHdisneylover]

Another New Hampshirite chiming in

First off, Ifeel compelled to metnion that I AM a hoemschooler and a despise Huckabee--we do not all support him.

Okay, so what do I htink will happen? Hard to say yet, the candidates will be hitting the area hard the next 5 days. But in light of all the campaign signs I have seen locally and what Iheard last night from Iowa and what I hear my neighbors saying, here is my best guess thus far:

Dems: Obama with about 5% lead follwed by Clinton then Edwards

Rep: Romney?!?! But McCain will show well. Huckabee won't even be in the top 3.

DD and I are going to a forum Saturday morning in Manchester. I will see how I feel after that and try to post again.

 

[Dan Murfman]

As the saying goes. Iowa picks corn and New Hampshire picks presidents.

 

[Fitswimmer]

ok, I was right about Iowa so I'll take another shot:

Democrats-Obama wins, but just by a hair over Hillary and Edwards places third

Republicans-this is tougher actually, but I think I'm going with McCain as a surprise over Romney-again not by much. As for third place, it's anyone's ballgame.

 

[Laugh O. Grams]

... I heard Rush Limbaugh say something very insightful last night -although I am not nearly as paranoid as he. His theory is that the MSM/Dems want Huckabee to win the nomination and see him defeated in a general election which would -in theory -once and for all eliminate the electoral significance of conservative Christians. Can't say as I buy that wholesale, but I fell asleep last night thinking on it.

I hardly think what you got from El Blobbo was insight, just more of his usual money making, soul sucking, wedge driving cynicism. Every Dem that I know would love to see Huckabee win the Republican nomination because of the front runners, he seems the most easily beatable. It's as simple as that and has nothing to do with any conspiracy against Christians. However, I hardly think that Rush is an innocent bystander and everything he says in regard to Huckabee needs to be taken with a grain of salt, especially seeing how Rush has been hypercritical of Huckabee's campaign. Didn't the two of them have a little cat fight just recently? I'm wondering if that means that Rush is part of the vast anti-Christian Democratic conspiracy as well?

 

[1DISNEYLVR]

In my neck of the woods (southern NH) I see a lot of support for Hillary. I think she will pull out a win, but by a very small margin.

I think McCain will win or finish a very close second to Romney on the Republican side. I agree that Huckabee won't be in the top 3.

 

[jrsmom]

It is hard to say what is going to happen. I am in NH and am supporting and working on Hillary's campaign. I will support whoever gets the nomination. I do think that McCain could win over Romney, I used to live in Ma and all I can say about Romney is YUCK.

 

[What the Heck]

I hardly think what you got from El Blobbo was insight, just more of his usual money making, soul sucking, wedge driving cynicism.

It's not good to hold back - tell us how you really feel!

 

[denisenh]

Looking forward to the debate, tomorrow night I believe.

For those that are political newbies thumbsup2 ) I will tell you what I showed my kids during their first "watch the debate with mom" night.

Get a sheet of paper and write down the names of the debaters in a column. Everytime you find that you agree with something one says, put a check mark next to his/her name. If it is a real "important to you" something put 2 check marks.


At the end of the debate, look at your check sheet....does one candidate have more checks than the others? There is your candidate!!

 

[Fitswimmer]

Looking forward to the debate, tomorrow night I believe.

For those that are political newbies thumbsup2 ) I will tell you what I showed my kids during their first "watch the debate with mom" night.

Get a sheet of paper and write down the names of the debaters in a column. Everytime you find that you agree with something one says, put a check mark next to his/her name. If it is a real "important to you" something put 2 check marks.


At the end of the debate, look at your check sheet....does one candidate have more checks than the others? There is your candidate!!

Simple, yet very effective! Is this a nationally televised one?

 

[jrsmom]

Looking forward to the debate, tomorrow night I believe.

For those that are political newbies thumbsup2 ) I will tell you what I showed my kids during their first "watch the debate with mom" night.

Get a sheet of paper and write down the names of the debaters in a column. Everytime you find that you agree with something one says, put a check mark next to his/her name. If it is a real "important to you" something put 2 check marks.


At the end of the debate, look at your check sheet....does one candidate have more checks than the others? There is your candidate!!

I love your idea. My son is 12 and loves to watch the debates. We spent the summer meeting all of the candidates. He wanted to meet them all in order to see who he would support.

 

[jrsmom]

Simple, yet very effective! Is this a nationally televised one?

I believe that it is. I think it could be ABC, I am not sure though. I guess that I need to find out soon!

 

[What the Heck]

My prediction for NH is Obama by more than 5 points, followed by Edwards, with Hillary 3rd again. In my opinion, what Iowa really did was show the holes Hillary has in her campaign. She hit it with her National campaign, her husband, her daughter, her mom. What is she going to do now, ressurect some past descendents or past presidents to vote for her? Stick a fork in her, she is done (thank God), the only thing left is the amount of money she will spend before she realizes this. (Anyone want to start a pool as to how many millions this is?)

Republican side, I haven't got a clue who the winner will be. I think there is one part of Iowa that is getting overlooked. Fred Thompson from what I read and heard was all set to throw in the towel, doing a lackluster campaign. John McCain was supposed to knock him out, some polls had him almost doubling Thompson. Judging from the statement from Thompson that was on the wire, it looks like he may be coming back into the race. Indications were, in my opinion, he wanted to be pushed out, but McCain didn't do it. Could be a fun ride on the Republican side.

 

[Darcy03231]

Another Southern NH here. Clinton seems to have a lot of support in the southern part of the state. I think that she, Obama and Edwards will all be close and the outcome will be in that order.

On the Republican side, I think McCain will come out on top. I don't think Huckabee will be in the top three at all. There seems to be a lot of support for Ron Paul in my area and not so much for Romney.

 

[Zippa D Doodah]

ETA: I also think Huckabee may be a bit too conservative for NH and will not do as well here.

I think Huckabee will not do well at all in NH. It's interesting that he get labeled as a far-right conservative, because he just isn't one. History of government increase and specious record on crime are enough to earn him some question marks from conservative. I'm very much undecided -and won't have to decide until much later -but as much as I am liking the Fair Tax, I don't know if I could actually vote for Huckabee for some of those very reasons.

Another New Hampshirite chiming in

First off, Ifeel compelled to metnion that I AM a hoemschooler and a despise Huckabee--we do not all support him.

Okay, so what do I htink will happen? Hard to say yet, the candidates will be hitting the area hard the next 5 days. But in light of all the campaign signs I have seen locally and what Iheard last night from Iowa and what I hear my neighbors saying, here is my best guess thus far:

Dems: Obama with about 5% lead follwed by Clinton then Edwards

Rep: Romney?!?! But McCain will show well. Huckabee won't even be in the top 3.

You're a good example of how dangerous generalities are. Last night the MSM talked on and on about "evangelicals and homeschoolers" when mentioning Huckabee. I suspect each candidate has a base of support that is not so easily defined. All homeschoolers are not alike, nor are evangelicals.

Interesting to hear you and other NHers' take on McCain. I hope he beats Romney out, but I figure the 'eastern conservative' base rallies around Romeny as it's candidate -kind of circling the wagons to fend of Hickabee's charge, thus drawing votes away from McCain. Also, I figure more independents who may have voted for McCain will instead invest their votes in Obama -thus enabling Romney to increase his margin of victory. IMO Huckabee might as well head to SC now and don't waste time in NH.

I hardly think what you got from El Blobbo was insight, just more of his usual money making, soul sucking, wedge driving cynicism.

Meh... maybe. I'm not a Christian who looks for boogeymen around each corner, but you must admit, it would be a sweet strategy for the myriad Dem special interest groups if, with this next general election, they could marginalize conservative Christians. Of course, the flaw in that strategy is that conservative Christians no longer vote as a bloc now anyhow. Some of us are green, some prolife, some even prochoice.


I haven't heard the phrase "compassionate Conservatism" come up in realtion to Huckabee yet, but isn't he saying essentially what W did 8 years ago? Maybe even more populist.

 

[denisenh]

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/01/ready-set-new-h.html


woo hooo!!

 

[crcormier]

I have no idea how it will go on either side. At least it's been interesting! I'm pulling for Obama to win again.

 

[palmtreegirl]

You're a good example of how dangerous generalities are. Last night the MSM talked on and on about "evangelicals and homeschoolers" when mentioning Huckabee. I suspect each candidate has a base of support that is not so easily defined. All homeschoolers are not alike, nor are evangelicals.

Good point. I'm a born again Christian who homeschools and I don't support Huckabee. I'm actually still a registered Democrat, I'd been planning on changing to "no party affiliation" but never did. So I'll be voting in the Democratic primary this month and as of today, I'm leaning towards voting for Obama.

 

[NewJersey]

What a great day to be a fan of change and of Obama.

Zip, thanks for starting this thread. I think McCain takes NH, Romney 2nd, and Huck 3rd. Romney is essentially out and it's a three man race between McCain, Huck,and Guiliani (maybe).

For the democrats, I think Hillary comes out winning by 2-6%, Obama 2nd, and Edwards a distant third. It will be a two person race after NH.