The New Hampshire Primary thread

[NHdisneylover]

You're a good example of how dangerous generalities are. Last night the MSM talked on and on about "evangelicals and homeschoolers" when mentioning Huckabee. I suspect each candidate has a base of support that is not so easily defined. All homeschoolers are not alike, nor are evangelicals.

Thanks for taking this exactly as I meant it (certainly not as a dig at you). I know the media has made much of the homeschoolers "support" of Huckabee and there was a big homeschool group which endorsed him. But, like every otjher group-we are not so easily generalized. Personally, I am one of those very liberal homeschooelrs (there are more of us than you'd think). But even among fairly conservative ones I know I can not think of anyone here who is supporting Huckabee (I know many who are supporting some of the other Republican candidates, as well as several supporting a variety of Democrats).

 

[cats7494]

Writing from the state of Iowa here - I caucused last night (for the first time) for Obama and am also going to be a delegate for him. (whoo! hoo!)

I have no idea on the Republican side to be honest - I would be surprised if Huckabee does as well in NH as he did in Iowa. I would think McCain will do better there but am not sure.

On the Democratic side - I think (and hope) Obama will be able to pull it off -with Edwards in 2nd and Hillary in 3rd. The independents are really going to Obama's side here in Iowa and I would imagine it would be similar in NH - which will give him momentum for future primaries...
I also know several Republicans who switched to Democrat so they could caucus for Obama!

Thanks for starting this thread - it is going to be fun to watch!

 

[NewJersey]

Writing from the state of Iowa here - I caucused last night (for the first time) for Obama and am also going to be a delegate for him. (whoo! hoo!)

I have no idea on the Republican side to be honest - I would be surprised if Huckabee does as well in NH as he did in Iowa. I would think McCain will do better there but am not sure.

On the Democratic side - I think (and hope) Obama will be able to pull it off -with Edwards in 2nd and Hillary in 3rd. The independents are really going to Obama's side here in Iowa and I would imagine it would be similar in NH - which will give him momentum for future primaries...
I also know several Republicans who switched to Democrat so they could caucus for Obama!

Thanks for starting this thread - it is going to be fun to watch!

Congrats on being selected to be a delegate! What I really like about Obama is he is inspiring Independents and even some Republicans to come out and vote/caucus for him. He has gotten young people really involved in this.



I would love if Obama won by the same margin in NH with Edwards and Clinton trailing.

 

[Laugh O. Grams]

It's not good to hold back - tell us how you really feel!

Wha? Too much?

 

[bimshire]

Haven't read the whole thread but here is a political philosophy quiz, if it has not be posted before. Are you supporting the right candidate?

http://www.politicalquiz.net/

I back Obama if he wins the nomination. If not I will throw my support to Hilary. However, after taking the quiz, it says my philosophy is more in line with Ron Paul's. Go figure!

 

[NewJersey]

I got Dodd, Edwards, Clinton, Biden, Obama, McCain

As my signature says, I'm totally for Obama. If Hillary wins and is against McCain, depending on his and her VP, I would consider backing McCain.

 

[Mugg Mann]

Interesting to hear you and other NHers' take on McCain. I hope he beats Romney out, but I figure the 'eastern conservative' base rallies around Romeny as it's candidate -kind of circling the wagons to fend of Hickabee's charge, thus drawing votes away from McCain. Also, I figure more independents who may have voted for McCain will instead invest their votes in Obama -thus enabling Romney to increase his margin of victory. IMO Huckabee might as well head to SC now and don't waste time in NH.

Zippa-

Please allow this Massachusetts resident to offer his take on your paragraph;

I really didn't get any serious personal investment going with Iowa. History shows that it's not an accurate barometer to what eventually happens.

New Hampshire is a different story, though, and especially this year.

As far as I'm concerned, New Hampshire IS the Mitt Romney referendum. Most of the population of NH resides in the Southern part of the state, and it's fair to say that many of those people commute into neighboring Massachusetts on a regular basis, if not daily for their jobs. Many NH voters are very familiar with Romney (the Boston television stations and by definition the Boston newscasts are seen via cable in many NH homes), and his reputation locally is not good at all.

As Al Gore failed to take his home state in Tennessee in 2000, and John Edwards failed to deliver his home state in for Kerry in 2004, my personal feel is that Mitt will suffer the same fate next week via proxy in NH.

He has been properly branded a flip-flopper for the difference in his positions while running for Governor of Massachusetts and running for President, and the widespread perception here is that he used the state of Massachusetts as nothing more than a stepping stone for his own personal ambitions and told the residents merely what he thought they wanted to hear. The state did not prosper economically under him, and no one here has forgotten that he spent over 200 days campaigning out of the state in his last year as Governor. Next week will be the first time that voters will be able to pass judgement on his tenure via ballot box.

Personally, I think Romney is going to do much worse than people think in New Hampshire for the reasons stated above. I can't speak intelligently about who will fill the Republican vacuum that Romney's poor performance will create (although if pressed I'd be inclined to think McCain), but I'm positive that the Romney campaign will be in fairly serious trouble the morning after NH.

Just one person's thoughts......

 

[wdw4us]

All of this is interesting and I never tell anyone my vote, including my husband but I must say while all the candidates cause all kinds of frenzy while they are here, they do bring a lot of money to the state.

Being such a small state, if we wanted to we could visit with any candidate.

Chris Dodd interrupted my dinner out one night- I was not please and he sure knew it by my face. I blame the restaurant for letting him parade around shaking hands. It was a Friday night, place was packed and waitstaff had a hard time going around his entourage. Alas, we'll venture back into our local watering hole after Tuesday!

My MIL lives right across the street from Chez Vachon in Manchester one of the places that all candidates go to for a meal and to be with the "common folk". We have prime viewing anytime but it does cause traffic problems too. The good and the bad with everything. BTW, I never go there, not my type of food. Greasy, fattening etc.

So thank you, candidates, press and volunteers for the $$ you bring and spend. We here appreciate it. See you in 4 years!

denise

 

[What the Heck]

Wha? Too much?

Not among DIS friends!

 

[What the Heck]

I really didn't get any serious personal investment going with Iowa. History shows that it's not an accurate barometer to what eventually happens.

That is what Hillary is trying to say now. The problem is, she is missing the point. Iowa isn't important because it's Iowa, but because a Black American got 38% of the the Democratic votes in a state that is only 2.7% black. The important thing about this vote is that it moves Obama from being a black candidate to being a candidate who happens to be black. From what I have heard, a lot of Hillarys support comes because people don't think Obama can get enough support outside of Black Americans. Iowa proved he can, including pulling some Republicans.

Hillary isn't doomed because she lost Iowa, she is doomed because Iowa proved Obama has a larger voting base.

 

[nhrenee]

It is hard to say what is going to happen. I am in NH and am supporting and working on Hillary's campaign. I will support whoever gets the nomination. I do think that McCain could win over Romney, I used to live in Ma and all I can say about Romney is YUCK.

Do you mind me asking why the "yuck". I'm honestly interested. DH is leaning towards him.

PM me if you'd like. I would really appreciate your point of view.

 

[StrollPatrolMom]

My thoughts are I'll be voting for Romney, and I hope he wins.

I know a lot of last minute McCain converts though.

I also think a lot of I's who are emboldened by Obama's win and may turn out to vote for him and take some I's votes away from McCain...

On my way to teach my class this morning, there were Obama supporters on every corner of a major intersection. It was 2 degrees.

I call an Obama upset and Romney win here.

 

[Mugg Mann]

Do you mind me asking why the "yuck". I'm honestly interested. DH is leaning towards him.

PM me if you'd like. I would really appreciate your point of view.

I wrote this earlier in this thread in a response to Zippa. I hope this provides some perspective;

He has been properly branded a flip-flopper for the difference in his positions while running for Governor of Massachusetts and running for President, and the widespread perception here is that he used the state of Massachusetts as nothing more than a stepping stone for his own personal ambitions and told the residents merely what he thought they wanted to hear. The state did not prosper economically under him, and no one here has forgotten that he spent over 200 days campaigning out of the state in his last year as Governor. Next week will be the first time that voters will be able to pass judgement on his tenure via ballot box.

 

[Mugg Mann]

My thoughts are I'll be voting for Romney, and I hope he wins.

I know a lot of last minute McCain converts though.

I also think a lot of I's who are emboldened by Obama's win and may turn out to vote for him and take some I's votes away from McCain...

On my way to teach my class this morning, there were Obama supporters on every corner of a major intersection. It was 2 degrees.

I call an Obama upset and Romney win here.

Amd in the exact same spirit as NHRenee, I'm genuinely and respectfully curious as to why you support Romney. Not as a debate, I'd just like to hear someone explain what the appeal is.

 

[jrsmom]

Do you mind me asking why the "yuck". I'm honestly interested. DH is leaning towards him.

PM me if you'd like. I would really appreciate your point of view.

NHRenee

I do agree with what Mugg Mann said about Romney. Also, he may not of "raised" taxes per say ,but most fees in the state were raised. I also cannot back a republican for many reasons one being sducation. The federal government has cut education funding so much over the past few years and our education sysem continues to fall behind other industialized nations. This is one reason that I would never vote republican candidates.

 

[StrollPatrolMom]

Amd in the exact same spirit as NHRenee, I'm genuinely and respectfully curious as to why you support Romney. Not as a debate, I'd just like to hear someone explain what the appeal is.

well, I disagree that "he used MA as a stepping stone"

I personally don't think someone who spent their entire life outside Washington did so with a diabolical plan in the back of his head to get into politics and seek to be President. I think he is very polished and that comes across as too fake for some people...

His accomplishments in the business world would translate well into a sound economic policy. Starting his own business from the ground up, turning around the Olympics, and balancing the MA budget in a EXTREMELY liberal state with long standing bureaucracy and traditionally high tax burden was no small feat.

I know quite a few people from MA who are irked by Romey's stint as governer...he did what it took to make the numbers work including cutting services. Our federal deficit is out of control. It is going to take major cuts in spending to make it work.

I do not deny the "flip flops" on social issues. They do not bother me because social issues are pretty far down on my list behind the economy and national defense. I have also changed mw own mind on some social positions over the years.

For me, it comes down to a balancing act...Romney is strong on the economy and McCain in strong on international affairs/national defense...at the end of the day, McCain opposing tax cuts as well as the immigration bill are more problematic to me than Romney's inexperience in the international arena (where he can get a strong team to advise him and his leadership qualities seem to show he is a good decision maker)

I think we need someone outside of Washington to go in and shake things up. While I can appreciate McCain's message about "going against the grain" in terms of some of his decisions...he is a 27 year Washington insider. Its about time our government comes back down to the real world and starts running like a business for the people as opposed to an out of control spending entity for special interests.

 

[Mugg Mann]

I thank you for your response. I did promise no debate, and while there are a number of things I don't agree with, one thing that is outright factually incorrect in your response is your perception of Massachusetts having a high tax burden.

In fact, for almost a decade now and well before Romney's tenure, Massachusetts has been in the lower half of tax burdens when measured state by state. During Romney's tenure, when measured against other states, Massachusetts' tax burden actually went up. There's no debate there, just cold hard fact. Check it out for yourself;

http://www.taxfoundation.org/taxdata/show/460.html

 

[Zippa D Doodah]

Writing from the state of Iowa here - I caucused last night (for the first time) for Obama and am also going to be a delegate for him. (whoo! hoo!)

Wow! Congratulations on being a delegate -and for caucusing for the first time! Without sounding like the 43yo geezer that I probably am , I am thrilled that newly eligible folks are passionate about the process.

Zippa-

Please allow this Massachusetts resident to offer his take on your paragraph;

Thanks MM... very interesting.


Also, strollpatrolmom, I must have messed up when trying to quote... but thanks for your take on things. It provided a flip side (pun intended ) to what MM said about Romney. I like to hear what folks from politician's home state/areas have to say about them. Your homeys always know you best.

 

[nhrenee]

Thanks for the responses. DH and I are registered with different parties so it's always interesting around here.

My DS is voting for the first time on Jan 8!

 

[NHdisneylover]

DD and I drove down to Manchester this morning for a forum for women put on by Lifetime television. Things we took note of:

All 42 campaigns on the NH ballot (yep there are 21 dems and 21 reps on the ballot ) were invited to send a representitive of their campaign. Here is who sent someone:
Democrats: Clinton, Edwards, Obama, Richardson, Kuccinich
Republicans: Romney
Yes, only one Rpublican bothered

There were about 500 women in attendence. The vast majority we spoke to planned to vote for Obama.

Both Manchester and Concord have 100s if not thousands of Huckabee signs up along every major roadway. These were not in Concord on Thusday--new stuff. Also lots of signs for Hunter--no clue who that is Other sinage seems to be in the same % as previously, just more of all of them.

DD noted that only Elizabeth Kuccinch spoke about global warming. Only Clinton's rep. spoke about GLBT issues.

I am still thinking Obama will take NH for the democrts but Clinton and Edwards will have good standings as well. McCain is looking like the republican choice so far. I can't wait to see the debate (we have no TV reception, but nieghbor is recording it for me )