I've been willing to concede it doesn't look so good for Clinton getting the democratic nomination (there goes my Hillary cred) - but no one's been able to show me how Obama wins more states than Kerry did. That is the ultimate and required goal......
At the risk of throwing this thread into turmoil again, I will
gladly give this a shot:
In 2004, Kerry won the following states:
California
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Hawaii
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin
Of that list, California, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Vermont, and Wisconsin are virtual locks if Obama is the nominee (obviously, a few of them are locks regardless of the Democratic candidate).
Taking those states out of the list leaves this:
Connecticut
Delaware
Maine
Maryland
Michigan
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Washington
Of those, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, and Washington have already voted for Obama for the nomination, so cross them off as well. That leaves:
Michigan - Polls now show Obama would win a primary held at this point.
New Hampshire - Could go either way in November (4 electoral votes)
Pennsylvania - Swing state for sure, but unlikely to vote for free trading McCain
Rhode Island - Will likely go Dem regardless, but it's only 4 electoral votes
Now, we're back to where Kerry was...still a few votes short of the nomination. BUT...by having Obama as the candidate, you also bring these states into play:
Ohio - Again, the economy has continued to worsen, so this will be a swing state, but one that I doubt will swing towards such a free trade proponent as McCain.
Florida - No way to know how Obama will do here, but the state is still up for grabs either way.
Georgia - Unlikely to go blue, granted. Still, they've a
huge African American voting block, and enough indifference by the deep southern right towards McCain could bring this state into the "swing" category.
Indiana - Barack does very well in the midwest for whatever reason. Another traditionally "red" state that could be in play.
Iowa - See above.
Louisiana - Similar to Georgia in both the demographic make-up and the potential for indifference towards McCain.
Missouri - This is a
distinct possibility for Barack to carry in November.
Nevada - McCain is strong in the west, but so is Barack.
New Mexico - See above.
North Carolina - I honestly believe Barack will win this state in November.
Texas - The Republican California or New York. Will Texas go blue?
Probably not. But with
either Hillary or Barack, it's a possibility.
Keep in mind...If Barack can hold onto the states that went for Kerry in '04, then he would only have to add
one state from that last list to win the presidency.
So...that's how I see it happening. He'll pick up North Carolina, Missouri, and at least one or two others, and we'll have the first election in years that doesn't come down to one state one way or the other.