The large number of new Aulani resale contracts??

[CastAStone]

DVC is NOT an investment

That’s not the same thing though as saying that there aren’t people “investing” in DVC contracts, and trading DVC contracts as if they were securities. There definitely are. And I’m sure that there’s people making money doing it, just like how ~3% of sports gamblers are “sharp” enough to make money.

DVC is not an investment is the only sound advice to give to random people on the internet, but at the same time I have high confidence that one could make money doing it if they had a REALLY good plan.

 

[Brian Noble]

at the same time I have high confidence that one could make money doing it if they had a REALLY good plan.

The plan most sharps have followed recently is buy-strip-flip. That might just be what we are seeing, but at scale.

In other words: this might not be someone exiting the market. This might be someone *working their plan*.

 

[AstroBlasters]

The plan most sharps have followed recently is buy-strip-flip. That might just be what we are seeing, but at scale.

In other words: this might not be someone exiting the market. This might be someone *working their plan*.

The same broker has had a steady drip of one to two stripped AUL-S on the market. They had previously told me that they had a large seller who wanted to sell one to two at a time to not crash the market.

Something changed.

I was thinking, this could also be a divorce…..

 

[ocdb8r1]

The plan most sharps have followed recently is buy-strip-flip. That might just be what we are seeing, but at scale.

In other words: this might not be someone exiting the market. This might be someone *working their plan*.

Agree....except "buy-strip-flip" implies a short hold period. There is no way any single person/entity accumulated this many contracts in a short period of time.

I really can't wait for the deed watchers to be able to give us some insight once these start to change hands.

 

[kgou]

Agree. This is a huge dump of stripped contracts by one broker. There is no way that this many completely stripped contracts, all with delayed closing (some as late as September 2025!) would coincidentally show up overnight.

They NEED to get rid of these contract for one reason or another. However the list prices do not currently reflect that.

Delayed closing Sept 2025 is bonkers!! Wow.

 

[Leight19]

Delayed closing Sept 2025 is bonkers!! Wow.

Assuming this is a clearly commercial renter exiting the market how nervous would you be to be the one renting for a room in September 2025? Haha.

I feel like one scenario was Disney flagged this person as commercial renter and forced them to stop. However if the person exited for another reason and never got caught due to obscuring ownership I feel like the sales here will make them easy to flag.

 

[ocdb8r1]

I feel like one scenario was Disney flagged this person as commercial renter and forced them to stop.

I was thinking this as well, but then I figured DVC would certainly have cancelled existing reservations if they were going to take such action (resulting in the contracts getting some of their points back and not being completely stripped), right?

 

[Leight19]

I was thinking this as well, but then I figured DVC would certainly have cancelled existing reservations if they were going to take such action (resulting in the contracts getting some of their points back and not being completely stripped), right?

Yeah if they just get cease and desist they would be clear id assume since punishment already done. Where risk to me would be is if they exiting for another reason and this exit itself is what gets them caught. Then the punishment would come later. I’d feel bad for the renters but imagine if a ton of hard to book rooms randomly came available from all these points; it would be like a dvc Christmas party lol.

 

[kgou]

I signed up for their daily newsletter and wow ...yeah all of these are stripped or mostly stripped and nearly all with delayed closings. still actively advertising rentals though.

 

[jparilla]

They heard everyone talking about total contracts for sale dipping below 1000 and decided to put an end to it.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Right? It's appeared a few times in the various videos I've watched today about the LL system. I forget how it's worded exactly, but the ad says something along the lines of "The most variety of Aulani contracts out there" or something along those lines!

Watched last night since I need learn LL anyway. I only got normal commercials for major retailers.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Agree....except "buy-strip-flip" implies a short hold period. There is no way any single person/entity accumulated this many contracts in a short period of time.

I really can't wait for the deed watchers to be able to give us some insight once these start to change hands.

Agree. They have likely held these for awhile. I think buy strip flip works but when at a slower pace. Flooding the market can hurt their own resale values.

 

[Leight19]

Agree. They have likely held these for awhile. I think buy strip flip works but when at a slower pace. Flooding the market can hurt their own resale values.

Yeah buy/strip/sell absolutely relies on buy low and sell high and the rush of contracts here with long extended closing makes that hard/impossible. This to me makes it much more likely they are exiting in distress.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Agree. They have likely held these for awhile. I think buy strip flip works but when at a slower pace. Flooding the market can hurt their own resale values.

That’s why I think it could be a divorce or estate sale.

 

[kgou]

Watched last night since I need learn LL anyway. I only got normal commercials for major retailers.

interesting!! I had spent minimal time on that broker's website recently ...probable once or twice over the last 6 months if there was a dvcforless notification for one of my saved searches. That's the only reason I can think of that I'd be served the ad.

ps - an aside, but I found the LL video to be really helpful!! I had mastered Genie+ and our next trip is the first trip since the new system rolled out.

 

[ocdb8r1]

That’s why I think it could be a divorce or estate sale.

Divorce or estate sale of (the owner(s) of) a commercial renter? There is no way this is a "normal" owner or couple.

 

[disneylandtour]

Divorce or estate sale of (the owner(s) of) a commercial renter? There is no way this is a "normal" owner or couple.

There have been significantly more than 8K points tossed out for sale in the last couple of weeks. I believe 8k is the point that DVD is flagged for MULTIPLE resorts. I think it's 4K at one resort that is the limit. For the number of points that have been put up for sale recently at least one family could live at Aulani year-round and then have points left over to invite friends to stay in their own studio for various visits.

 

[AstroBlasters]

There have been significantly more than 8K points tossed out for sale in the last couple of weeks. I believe 8k is the point that DVD is flagged for MULTIPLE resorts. I think it's 4K at one resort that is the limit. For the number of points that have been put up for sale recently at least one family could live at Aulani year-round and then have points left over to invite friends to stay in their own studio for various visits.

A 2 bedroom is around 550 a week. So 8k would be 14-15 weeks or 3-4 months.

Thats a lot…. but not a whole year.

No way a family is staying in a one bedroom with only one bathroom.

 

[juliebee]

I really can't wait for the deed watchers to be able to give us some insight once these start to change hands.

is there a current thread where deed watchers report out? I want to be reading that

 

[AstroBlasters]

is there a current thread where deed watchers report out? I want to be reading that

People don’t deed watch Hawaii or California with the same level of detail because you have to pay to see a clear copy of the deeds.

Florida is the state that seems to have no regard for privacy