I don't know if this will help, but here's my attempt to answer your question. I may be wrong, but here's why I think people will go less, resulting in reduced AP crowds, if they have to pay per day like tourists rather than having an Annual Pass. This just applies to local APs who can pop over with little to no planning, not those who plan multi-day trips. I could be wrong on these assumptions--happens all the time!
Assume an AP goes 2x per month for a day for 24 days in the park at a FlexPass price of $700 (I think that's what our last FlexPass with MaxPass cost...) Cost per day is $29.17
If they still want to go 2x per month for a day then 24 days * $150 per day = $3,600--5x as expensive. The cost becomes prohibitive for many. They can bring cost down by going multiple days at a time instead of just one weekend day.
Of course these numbers aren't exact and the "membership" will very likely bring the cost down to far less than $150 per day. But likely not down to $30 per day. The more times someone goes in a year, the bigger the spread in cost is between the former AP cost and the per-day cost. I find it hard to believe that as many people will drop into Disneyland in the evenings after work to catch dinner, a ride or two, and fireworks without an AP as they did with an AP. People like me out of state who have tried to plan two to three trips in a year for a few days each time with an AP may not find that cost effective. Guessing some will have to drop a trip or two. I doubt there will be many in any of these cases who will want to go more because prices went up. With our AP and a 700 mile drive to get to Disneyland, we were planning on late-April, mid-June, late-September and early-December trips in 2020 (and were assuming we'd now do it in 2021 instead on our extended passes until the past couple days). Now it will just be one with the refunded unused AP balance.
I believe there are some who buy the AP and consider that their entertainment for the year. Fixed cost paid once and nearly unlimited trips for a year after that, if close travel-wise. Won't work as easily on a pay-per-day for those folks either. Mom's bringing kids to the Park for the day or for play dates with other families, less likely. Teenage groups going all the time, less likely. Sure, there are some who will still go often and can pay for the privilege, but that can't be very many. Seems most on this Board who are local APs are sad they won't be able to go as often as they have been, and their sadness is legitimate and real.
Yes, I picked extreme examples, but the point of the entrance cost per day going up is, I believe, valid. As prices go up, overall demand is likely to decrease. Sure there are some families who will pay the cost no matter what. But I feel many will have to cut back the number of days in the Park as the price increases. Disneyland is a premium cost experience without an AP.
I welcome contrary thoughts on the above that see holes in my logic of increased price resulting in less demand/attendance.
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