The Current Disneyland Annual Pass Program Has Been Cancelled

[KPeterso]

Orange tier is not 3 months away. Yesterday's numbers had us at 18 cases per 100k and a positivity rate (just over 6%) rapidly approaching Orange tier.

OC is expected to be eligible for Red tier by March 17 (possibly sooner if numbers decline more than an average of 4% par day which seems likely). By the time they get placed there (2 weeks later), those 2 weeks of data may very well qualify for Orange tier, making Mid to late April the most likely scenario if there is no new spike in cases.

Where did you see the 18 per 100K case rate. The site on Facebook that I follow has the case rate at 31.2 cases per 100K for the last 14 days. The analysis there has that we could be red eligible on 3/17, but could not actually move down until 3/31 due to the waiting period. He does agree about the 4% drop per day. Personally, I think the drops will start to slow as we get closer to where we want to be. I am with the other poster that said maybe June/July that we could see Orange. We were in Red for 2.5-3 months last fall and never got down to orange before the tides turned and everything went out of control. I am hopeful that we will not have that happen again, but I think our improvement will be slowing soon.

To get back to Disneyland opening, I am hopeful for it to open in Orange. That is where I thought was fair last year, but I can also see it still not happening too.

 

[DLgal]

Where did you see the 18 per 100K case rate. The site on Facebook that I follow has the case rate at 31.2 cases per 100K for the last 14 days. The analysis there has that we could be red eligible on 3/17, but could not actually move down until 3/31 due to the waiting period. He does agree about the 4% drop per day. Personally, I think the drops will start to slow as we get closer to where we want to be. I am with the other poster that said maybe June/July that we could see Orange. We were in Red for 2.5-3 months last fall and never got down to orange before the tides turned and everything went out of control. I am hopeful that we will not have that happen again, but I think our improvement will be slowing soon.

To get back to Disneyland opening, I am hopeful for it to open in Orange. That is where I thought was fair last year, but I can also see it still not happening too.

I was talking about the one day case rate. So, if the numbers continue along the same trajectory, in 2 weeks, the case rate will be in the mid teens. The state is using a 7 day average and this guy uses a 14 day average. The 7 day average is more volatile but if we are going by that, we are at much less than 33 per 100k.

 

[Malcon10t]

OC is expected to be eligible for Red tier by March 17 (possibly sooner if numbers decline more than an average of 4% par day which seems likely). By the time they get placed there (2 weeks later), those 2 weeks of data may very well qualify for Orange tier, making Mid to late April the most likely scenario if there is no new spike in cases.

Interesting. The numbers published yesterday by the state, state 24.9 per 100K, and a 9.4% positivity rate. Hopefully by next Tuesday, it will be the number you state, and we can hold that for 2 weeks.

We also need to remember, we either need the Governor to change his mind and put large Theme Parks in Orange, or for AB 420 to make it thru everything, pass, hit his desk, and either be signed or if vetoed have a large enough vote to override a veto. Or else we are waiting til Yellow.

 

[montreid]

Until Gov posts otherwise, we are stuck with the 7day lagging metric.

OC Data:
https://ochca.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/cc4859c8c522496b9f21c451de2fedae
It's now 29 and needs to get down <7 and stay there for 14 days before entering Red tier.
Then we need to stay in Red Tier MINIMUM 2 weeks AND meet the rate <4 for two more weeks to get to Orange.
Then we need to stay in Orange MINUMUM 2 weeks AND meet the rate <1 for two more weeks to get to Yellow .

Yellow is current requirement to reach to get to DLR reopening.
POTENTIAL state legislation is afoot to make that Orange.

BEST Case scenario is the 7 day lagging entering Red in by end of Feb
Mar 1-14 enter Red tier

~Mar 15+ Red Tier AND Meeting Orange tier criteria AND state passes Orange reopening.
~ April Enter Orange tier --- AND State law passes -- DLR MAY reopen

--That's VERY aggressive timeline .

My bet
Red Tier - End March
Orange Tier - End April
DLR reopen: Memorial Day. -- Still have early May VGC reservations just in case

 

[BadPinkTink]

hey, any chance we can get back on track to talking about the cancelled AP 's, I don't want them to close my thread

 

[Epicnemesis]

Let’s do that. Do you think they offer discounted tickets to legacy pass holders when the parks reopen?

 

[BadPinkTink]

Let’s do that. Do you think they offer discounted tickets to legacy pass holders when the parks reopen?

I don't the legacy pass holders will have discounted tickets but its possible the legacy passholders will be invited first to the new membership scheme before its opened up to new members.

 

[DLgal]

They are talking about time specific entry tickets and APs. Story in OC Register. Personally, I have no issue making that an OPTION, but it better not be the only option.

 

[BadPinkTink]

They are talking about time specific entry tickets and APs. Story in OC Register. Personally, I have no issue making that an OPTION, but it better not be the only option.

could you post the link to this please, so the rest of us can read it

 

[DLgal]

could you post the link to this please, so the rest of us can read it

https://www.ocregister.com/2021/02/...passes-and-tickets-for-afternoon-and-evenings

 

[Epicnemesis]

The more I read quotes from executives the more I think the new AP will be feature customizable. You choose how many days you can reserve, how far ahead you can reserve, the type of blackout calendar you want, etc. Basically you run through a survey when you sign up similar to how you sign up for those meal services.

 

[SOCALMouseMommy]

I don't the legacy pass holders will have discounted tickets but its possible the legacy passholders will be invited first to the new membership scheme before its opened up to new members.

I hope so! I am still in mourning over all this

 

[SOCALMouseMommy]

They are talking about time specific entry tickets and APs. Story in OC Register. Personally, I have no issue making that an OPTION, but it better not be the only option.

Ugh all the details that come out or are speculated on sound so complicated.

 

[theluckyrabbit]

Ugh all the details that come out or are speculated on sound so complicated.

Agree.

 

[montreid]

I think the after 4pm option twilight AP would be extremely popular for the immediate local population. That's a huge lever to tap into if they really wanted crowd control concerns yet fill the evening parks if they reopen on extended hours

 

[Epicnemesis]

I think the after 4pm option twilight AP would be extremely popular for the immediate local population. That's a huge lever to tap into if they really wanted crowd control concerns yet fill the evening parks if they reopen on extended hours

Yea but at the same time, I feel like one of the reasons they are resetting the program is specifically because the immediate local population would over crowd the parks after work.

 

[DisneyMusicMan]

I wouldn’t mind an “after 4pm” pass. But, only if they don’t bring FP back. I used to head out to park in the afternoons/evenings when I was in college, and it was great when you still had a chance to ride some of the rides. After the introduction of FP, there just wasn’t a chance. You had to get there bright and early in the morning for Space Mountain, Racers, etc.

BTW, I know a lot of people love FP, but I wasn’t a big fan. It got you on some rides fast, but lines for non-FP holders were getting to be hours. Without FP, I remember when 45 minutes sounded like a long line. But it moved fast! But anyway, I digress...

 

[Epicnemesis]

I’m mixed on fast passes. I really understood the effect they had on the regular line on my first trip to Disney world. We hopped in what was quoted as a 15 minute buzz line right around lunchtime and got completely screwed over by people who were using their fast passes. A healthy mix of people who just finished lunch who wanted to use their pass before they expired and people who wanted to use their pass as soon as it was available so they could have lunch after.
Our. Line. Didn’t. Move. Literally over an hour to do Buzz, only to learn that the Disney world Buzz sucks compared to ours.

I think people don’t appreciate how much longer fast passes make the regular lines. However, there is value in them because it all but guarantees you have a pleasant experience with an E ticket you prioritize.

 

[DisneyMusicMan]

I was on Haunted Mansion in DL once where the two lines joined, and I saw a CM training a new CM. There was literally a card with info telling the new CM how many FP holders to let in per 1 person from the regular line. I can’t remember the exact factor, but I wanted to say it was somewhere around 7-10? It doesn’t seem bad, but for a family of four from the regular line, ~30 people would go from the FP line. And in many cases, CMs will hold the regular line until they reach that number, even if there’s space to move people from the regular line.

 

[Epicnemesis]

I was on Haunted Mansion in DL once where the two lines joined, and I saw a CM training a new CM. There was literally a card with info telling the new CM how many FP holders to let in per 1 person from the regular line. I can’t remember the exact factor, but I wanted to say it was somewhere around 7-10? It doesn’t seem bad, but for a family of four from the regular line, ~30 people would go from the FP line. And in many cases, CMs will hold the regular line until they reach that number, even if there’s space to move people from the regular line.

Wow that’s worse than I expected even. I just assumed they would just do what is necessary (line flow wise) to keep the FP line to 15 minutes.