Orange tier is not 3 months away. Yesterday's numbers had us at 18 cases per 100k and a positivity rate (just over 6%) rapidly approaching Orange tier.
OC is expected to be eligible for Red tier by March 17 (possibly sooner if numbers decline more than an average of 4% par day which seems likely). By the time they get placed there (2 weeks later), those 2 weeks of data may very well qualify for Orange tier, making Mid to late April the most likely scenario if there is no new spike in cases.
Where did you see the 18 per 100K case rate. The site on Facebook that I follow has the case rate at 31.2 cases per 100K for the last 14 days. The analysis there has that we could be red eligible on 3/17, but could not actually move down until 3/31 due to the waiting period. He does agree about the 4% drop per day. Personally, I think the drops will start to slow as we get closer to where we want to be. I am with the other poster that said maybe June/July that we could see Orange. We were in Red for 2.5-3 months last fall and never got down to orange before the tides turned and everything went out of control. I am hopeful that we will not have that happen again, but I think our improvement will be slowing soon.
To get back to Disneyland opening, I am hopeful for it to open in Orange. That is where I thought was fair last year, but I can also see it still not happening too.