Texas to open 100%

Statistical significance is not a measure for one to decide whether they whimsically consider an event to be significant or not. Your reference article showed the data is p<0.01. That’s very statistically significant.

I don’t consider 2% statistically significant. The reason I referenced the most current data released by CDC is bc the timing coincided with multiple States decisions to lift their mask mandates. My thoughts were this may have influenced their decision.

Days 1-20 -> 0.5 point decrease vs.
Days 20-100 -> 1.8 point decrease.
 
Statistical significance is not a measure for one to decide whether they whimsically consider an event to be significant or not. Your reference article showed the data is p<0.01. That’s very statistically significant.

I referenced “statistically significant” instead of “statistically different” because that was the terminology taken directly from the CDC. See last sentence.

561014
 
I don’t consider 2% statistically significant. The reason I referenced the most current data released by CDC is bc the timing coincided with multiple States decisions to lift their mask mandates. My thoughts were this may have influenced their decision.

Days 1-20 -> 0.5 point decrease vs.
Days 20-100 -> 1.8 point decrease.

View attachment 561009

I really think you've misunderstood the article. They're saying that mask mandates showed a decrease in the growth rate of both daily cases and deaths (although deaths lag daily cases by about 14-21 days depending on the strain). Unless you deal with these type of articles regularly, it's not very clear. This is why I always have graphs when I do presentations. The article clearly states that the reference period is 1-20 days before implementation ie. all the pre-implementation growth rates they looked at were similar to the last 20 days before implementation.

This is very positive news. It shows that you already have the tools you need to beat this virus back and get things back in order even without vaccines.

And from my perspective, the more cases there are, the more new strains will develop. Most new strains are either more virulent or more pathogenic than the previous ones -- with enough evolution, the current vaccines may become ineffective. New strains may also affect other species, and the more wild species that are vulnerable to a virus, the more likely it is to become endemic ie. it's out there always and we can't really prevent new outbreaks, as with influenza.
 
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I don’t consider 2% statistically significant. The reason I referenced the most current data released by CDC is bc the timing coincided with multiple States decisions to lift their mask mandates. My thoughts were this may have influenced their decision.

Days 1-20 -> 0.5 point decrease vs.
Days 20-100 -> 1.8 point decrease.

View attachment 561009
Do you understand how big of a deal a 2% decrease in the daily growth rate is? The delta between the two lines grows day by day as the gains compound. Over a 365 day period, the pool with the 2% higher growth rate will have 39% more cases.
 

CDC report admits "Daily case and death growth rates before implementation of mask mandates were not statistically different from the reference period.”

View attachment 560998
My state was used by the CDC for at least one study (well a study was done by a university and the cdc used the data for report). Basically they were saying at least with our state it led to fewer cases per day on average with the counties that opted into the mask mandate. And the counties that opted out all of them increased in covid cases. I believe my county was something like 6.5 or so fewer cases per day per 100,000 people (for reference our county has 602,000 people so that would be something like 39 or so fewer cases per day).

This is about my state and covers June 1st-August 23rd with our mask mandate starting July 3rd. "After the governor’s executive order, COVID-19 incidence (calculated as the 7-day rolling average number of new daily cases per 100,000 population) decreased (mean decrease of 0.08 cases per 100,000 per day; net decrease of 6%) among counties with a mask mandate (mandated counties) but continued to increase (mean increase of 0.11 cases per 100,000 per day; net increase of 100%) among counties without a mask mandate (nonmandated counties)."

I kinda agree with the other people in so much that I don't think you're reading the article you linked correctly or you're inferring something. Though I do understand what you are trying to get at. I think it would be worth studying very in-depth in the future but right now the data isn't saying "don't keep on with mask mandates they aren't doing anything".
 
I am still not understanding how we went from “6 weeks to flatten the curve” to “anyone who gets Covid will die and it must be eradicated” without anyone seeming to verify that eradication is even possible.

the best part of the whole thing for me is that now, finally, a majority of people judge and call out individuals who are coughing, sneezing etc all over the place. I don’t care if it’s allergies or you’re dying - that activity spreads biological material and you should stay home. The most refreshing part about our most recent Disney trip was the utter lack of sick children and snotty noses everywhere.
 
Well, for instance, both myself and my son are photic sneezers. So are up to 35% of people. In case you didn’t know that,
 
/
I am still not understanding how we went from “6 weeks to flatten the curve” to “anyone who gets Covid will die and it must be eradicated” without anyone seeming to verify that eradication is even possible.

the best part of the whole thing for me is that now, finally, a majority of people judge and call out individuals who are coughing, sneezing etc all over the place. I don’t care if it’s allergies or you’re dying - that activity spreads biological material and you should stay home. The most refreshing part about our most recent Disney trip was the utter lack of sick children and snotty noses everywhere.

In the beginning most western countries were following advice from the Imperial College of London, which assumed that the virus would spread through populations with minimal deaths and all that was necessary was to protect the most vulnerable populations eg. nursing home residents, and to minimize the pressure on hospitals, especially ICUs ie. flatten the curve such that the most serious cases occurred over a longer time frame so additional critical care units wouldn't be needed.

The problem is that this guidance was based on many assumptions that turned out to be wrong. They assumed that China had overreacted to the virus, that more people had actually been infected than China had admitted and that explained why they had had to build 2 new huge critical care hospitals in Wuhan. They assumed that this virus only spread as quickly as influenza ie. they got the R0 wrong and assumed it was closer to 2 when it was actually between 5 and 8. They also made the assumption that economies would be better off continuing as usual and for everyone to just endure the deaths as herd immunity was built up -- leading economists came out pretty quickly and tried to tell everyone that this couldn't happen and basically tell these guys to stay in their own lane. And from my perspective they made a huge mistake by assuming that SARS-CoV-2 was just a respiratory virus, since most coronoviruses only cause the common cold. It wasn't until there was time to do autopsies around the world that scientists understood this virus actually affected the blood and consequently patients would die of things other than respiratory arrest and those who survived would have lasting damage. Early on people who died from heart attacks and strokes were just counted as heart attacks and strokes. There are many more but they got the most important things wrong.

It wasn't until the virus hit Italy that western governments started to re-think this guidance and not all did. It took a long time for countries like Sweden and the US to get on a different path. In the mean time, many smaller countries had actually eradicated the virus within their borders. Countries like Mongolia, Vietnam and Taiwan started from the assumption that this virus was something new and they didn't really have enough information about it to try to dance around it -- but they did know they didn't have the resources to set up thousands more critical care beds so they just had to stomp it out.

"Flatten the curve" was just another way of saying they were going to let some people die or become critically ill but that they didn't want too many to be critically ill at the same time because there weren't enough resources available for that. Eradication is actually the only feasible goal and vaccines are just another tactic to accomplish this. They have to stop the spread of the virus from person to person so that the virus can't find a new host and eventually dies out. This could have been accomplished through masks and physical distancing (including quarantine and lock downs) and closing borders but since so many people refuse to go along with this in some countries and because the virus has already been spread so widely, vaccines have to be used instead. It's still not clear whether this will be enough because vaccinated people will probably still be able to infect others. Current vaccines only prevent patients from becoming critically ill.

For what it's worth, during the Black Death, they assumed that just shutting sick people into their homes would be enough to stop the pandemic. Eventually they too realized they had to close the city gates and quarantine any ships coming in. This did cause economic hardships but short term economic pain was preferable to ongoing economic devastation from the pandemic. I do agree with you that convincing people to stay home when ill is the best thing to come out of this -- in most countries we were assuming that deaths from viruses like influenza were inevitable and acceptable. I hope this is a permanent change because this won't be the last novel virus we have to deal with.
 
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So if you suffer from allergies you should stay home?
Yep. If you’re going to be sneezing constantly around other people, it might be time to seek treatment for your allergies and stop propelling your germs on everyone in the vicinity. Because not everyone who is coughing and sneezing everywhere does have allergies. A lot of people spread Covid thinking they just had allergies.

In the middle of a pandemic, you can’t walk around coughing and sneezing and expect people to be fine with it, whatever your reason might be.

That being said, my comment was more directed to the obnoxious people who send sick kids to school and bring sick kids on vacation. I get that you can’t predict everything, but you can stay in the room and make an effort to not share your disease with the entire world.
 
In the beginning most western countries were following advice from the Imperial College of London, which assumed that the virus would spread through populations with minimal deaths and all that was necessary was to protect the most vulnerable populations eg. nursing home residents, and to minimize the pressure on hospitals, especially ICUs ie. flatten the curve such that the most serious cases occurred over a longer time frame so additional critical care units wouldn't be needed.

The problem is that this guidance was based on many assumptions that turned out to be wrong. They assumed that China had overreacted to the virus, that more people had actually been infected than China had admitted and that explained why they had had to build 2 new huge critical care hospitals in Wuhan. They assumed that this virus only spread as quickly as influenza ie. they got the R0 wrong and assumed it was closer to 2 when it was actually between 5 and 8. They also made the assumption that economies would be better off continuing as usual and for everyone to just endure the deaths as herd immunity was built up -- leading economists came out pretty quickly and tried to tell everyone that this couldn't happen and basically tell these guys to stay in their own lane. And from my perspective they made a huge mistake by assuming that SARS-CoV-2 was just a respiratory virus, since most coronoviruses only cause the common cold. It wasn't until there was time to do autopsies around the world that scientists understood this virus actually affected the blood and consequently patients would die of things other than respiratory arrest and those who survived would have lasting damage. Early on people who died from heart attacks and strokes were just counted as heart attacks and strokes. There are many more but they got the most important things wrong.

It wasn't until the virus hit Italy that western governments started to re-think this guidance and not all did. It took a long time for countries like Sweden and the US to get on a different path. In the mean time, many smaller countries had actually eradicated the virus within their borders. Countries like Mongolia, Vietnam and Taiwan started from the assumption that this virus was something new and they didn't really have enough information about it to try to dance around it -- but they did know they didn't have the resources to set up thousands more critical care beds so they just had to stomp it out.

"Flatten the curve" was just another way of saying they were going to let some people die or become critically ill but that they didn't want too many to be critically ill at the same time because there weren't enough resources available for that. Eradication is actually the only feasible goal and vaccines are just another tactic to accomplish this. They have to stop the spread of the virus from person to person so that the virus can't find a new host and eventually dies out. This could have been accomplished through masks and physical distancing and closing borders but since so many people refuse to go along with this in some countries and because the virus has already been spread so widely, vaccines have to be used instead. It's still not clear whether this will be enough because vaccinated people will probably still be able to infect others. Current vaccines only prevent patients from becoming critically ill.

For what it's worth, during the Black Death, they assumed that just shutting sick people into their homes would be enough to stop the pandemic. Eventually they too realized they had to close the city gates and quarantine any ships coming in. This did cause economic hardships but short term economic pain was preferable to ongoing economic devastation from the pandemic. I do agree with you that convincing people to stay home when ill is the best thing to come out of this -- in most countries we were assuming that deaths from viruses like influenza were inevitable and acceptable. I hope this is a permanent change because this won't be the last novel virus we have to deal with.
Hm, I’m not sure I agree with this assessment. There is little to no role for vaccination in the scenario you describe because vaccination does nothing to prevent the spread of Covid-19. It reduces the severity of your illness if you do contract it; it does nothing to prevent you from contracting it, carrying it, and spreading it even if you aren’t ill. In fact, given that people will be less sick, it may increase the spread.

what actually eradicates illness is verifiable testing, contact tracing, and strict quarantine, specifically for those who are not ill.
 
If you’re going to be sneezing constantly around other people, it might be time to seek treatment for your allergies
I'm not sure you understand how allergies work. You think that people never treat for allergies? That's a strange line of thinking. Most allergy medicine tampers the effects, it doesn't make it go away it's not magic. Additionally allergies and the effects it has on someone can change over time.

There's something to be said for covering your nose, washing your hands, and basic hygiene with or without allergies but the over the top viewpoint on allergies does no one any good.
 
My state was used by the CDC for at least one study (well a study was done by a university and the cdc used the data for report). Basically they were saying at least with our state it led to fewer cases per day on average with the counties that opted into the mask mandate. And the counties that opted out all of them increased in covid cases. I believe my county was something like 6.5 or so fewer cases per day per 100,000 people (for reference our county has 602,000 people so that would be something like 39 or so fewer cases per day).

This is about my state and covers June 1st-August 23rd with our mask mandate starting July 3rd. "After the governor’s executive order, COVID-19 incidence (calculated as the 7-day rolling average number of new daily cases per 100,000 population) decreased (mean decrease of 0.08 cases per 100,000 per day; net decrease of 6%) among counties with a mask mandate (mandated counties) but continued to increase (mean increase of 0.11 cases per 100,000 per day; net increase of 100%) among counties without a mask mandate (nonmandated counties)."

I kinda agree with the other people in so much that I don't think you're reading the article you linked correctly or you're inferring something. Though I do understand what you are trying to get at. I think it would be worth studying very in-depth in the future but right now the data isn't saying "don't keep on with mask mandates they aren't doing anything".

This was very well explained. I think the comparisons between counties with mask mandates and those without is most helpful. It would really be nice to see comparisons between counties where people actually wear masks and where they don't. It seems like in the US a lot of people choose not to follow the mask mandates even where the government is telling them it's the quickest way to get out of this mess.
 
Hm, I’m not sure I agree with this assessment. There is little to no role for vaccination in the scenario you describe because vaccination does nothing to prevent the spread of Covid-19. It reduces the severity of your illness if you do contract it; it does nothing to prevent you from contracting it, carrying it, and spreading it even if you aren’t ill. In fact, given that people will be less sick, it may increase the spread.

what actually eradicates illness is verifiable testing, contact tracing, and strict quarantine, specifically for those who are not ill.

I actually agree with you. I should have been more clear -- governments are using vaccines to prevent critical illness. There will probably be some effect in reducing spread since the virus is more transmissible when attached to organic material ie. coughs and sneezes, and most people who are vaccinated will not be coughing at all even if infected. But I think that will be minimal. It seems that at every point in this pandemic we get reminded that we are not more powerful than Mother Nature. The virus is just doing what it was designed to do.

My worst fear is that governments will stop taking the measures you suggest and that they will stop taking any precautions, and children will be vulnerable. We could see an increase in the death rate among children from new and existing strains before a vaccine is deemed safe for them.
 
My state was used by the CDC for at least one study (well a study was done by a university and the cdc used the data for report). Basically they were saying at least with our state it led to fewer cases per day on average with the counties that opted into the mask mandate. And the counties that opted out all of them increased in covid cases. I believe my county was something like 6.5 or so fewer cases per day per 100,000 people (for reference our county has 602,000 people so that would be something like 39 or so fewer cases per day).

This is about my state and covers June 1st-August 23rd with our mask mandate starting July 3rd. "After the governor’s executive order, COVID-19 incidence (calculated as the 7-day rolling average number of new daily cases per 100,000 population) decreased (mean decrease of 0.08 cases per 100,000 per day; net decrease of 6%) among counties with a mask mandate (mandated counties) but continued to increase (mean increase of 0.11 cases per 100,000 per day; net increase of 100%) among counties without a mask mandate (nonmandated counties)."

I kinda agree with the other people in so much that I don't think you're reading the article you linked correctly or you're inferring something. Though I do understand what you are trying to get at. I think it would be worth studying very in-depth in the future but right now the data isn't saying "don't keep on with mask mandates they aren't doing anything".
If I am getting these numbers correct, the difference between the two is .19/100,000 which in your county of 602,000 would mean a difference of approximately 1.2 cases per day or 8 per week with a mask mandate vs without.
Do you understand how big of a deal a 2% decrease in the daily growth rate is? The delta between the two lines grows day by day as the gains compound. Over a 365 day period, the pool with the 2% higher growth rate will have 39% more cases.
The data does not seem to have borne this out though. We are now just about a year from when the first mandates and lock downs went into effect, those areas have not had 39% less the amount of covid infections and certainly not 39% less covid deaths than areas that have had fewer mandates and lockdowns.
 
I'm not sure you understand how allergies work. You think that people never treat for allergies? That's a strange line of thinking. Most allergy medicine tampers the effects, it doesn't make it go away it's not magic. Additionally allergies and the effects it has on someone can change over time.

There's something to be said for covering your nose, washing your hands, and basic hygiene with or without allergies but the over the top viewpoint on allergies does no one any good.

I think you missed the point that this is in the middle of a pandemic. Why you are coughing and sneezing is of little importance when we're dealing with a virus where many carriers are asymptomatic, and where most people who are vaccinated can become asymptomatic carriers.

We already know that 25 percent of people infected with influenza are asymptomatic carriers, and this is the way the influenza virus is spread. People aren't catching it from people who are too sick to work; most people catch influenza from an asymptomatic carrier who is a close contact. SARS-CoV-2 is the same. Thank goodness for genome sequencing -- we might finally know how much we don't know.
 
If I am getting these numbers correct, the difference between the two is .19/100,000 which in your county of 602,000 would mean a difference of approximately 1.2 cases per day or 8 per week with a mask mandate vs without.

The data does not seem to have borne this out though. We are now just about a year from when the first mandates and lock downs went into effect, those areas have not had 39% less the amount of covid infections and certainly not 39% less covid deaths than areas that have had fewer mandates and lockdowns.
We really have no idea what would have been, actually.

populations that have a higher average age will have more deaths even with the exact same mandates and compliance.

populations that are more obese will have more deaths and more hospitalizations with recovery than those who are less so.

you can’t really reduce spread, illness, and morbidity to just one factor. If you could, then we could just eliminate that one factor.
 
I think you missed the point that this is in the middle of a pandemic. Why you are coughing and sneezing is of little importance when we're dealing with a virus where many carriers are asymptomatic, and where most people who are vaccinated can become asymptomatic carriers.

We already know that 25 percent of people infected with influenza are asymptomatic carriers, and this is the way the influenza virus is spread. People aren't catching it from people who are too sick to work; most people catch influenza from an asymptomatic carrier who is a close contact. SARS-CoV-2 is the same. Thank goodness for genome sequencing -- we might finally know how much we don't know.
This is accurate to my point.

it doesn’t matter why you are coughing or sneezing. Right now that is an inappropriate thing to be doing in public even with a mask on. I apologize if that’s inconvenient for some, but that’s the way it is.
 
If I am getting these numbers correct, the difference between the two is .19/100,000 which in your county of 602,000 would mean a difference of approximately 1.2 cases per day or 8 per week with a mask mandate vs without.
Not at least according to the information I've read. It was 6.5 fewer cases per day in my county, the 2nd largest county by population had 9 fewer cases per day. The rural counties, the ones who largely opted out, got hit later and at a high amount to their population density with exception to ones with meatpacking where those counties got hit early on. The masks acts like a mitigation effort in so much that it wouldn't just make covid go away but led to dulling effect.
 














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