Technical Question about DVC

[lemon]

Hello all, Me and my wife were having a discussion this evening and we were wondering how does Disney calculate how many points they can sell per DVC resort? How does Disney know when a DVC resort is considered sold out, how is this calculated? ...thanks in advance!

 

[MinnieGirl33]

The way I understand it (and I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong), you add the individual point requirements for all 365 days x number if units at that property.

For this example please assume that all units are standard view & that all months are equal to value season. So, looking at January 1 thru 31, 2010, a single studio would "cost" 463 pts. Multiply that by the 133 total studios = 61,579 points for one month of studios. So 62K x 12 months = 739K pts just for studios... then add the 133 1br, 148 dedicated 2br & 14 GV totals.

Keep in mind that WDW owns a small percentage of units (I want to say approx. 2%) so I would think that would affect the total points available for sale. Unless of course they have to officially "buy" the points from DVD ???

Now you've got me curious & wanting to do the real math!

 

[wdrl]

Hello all, Me and my wife were having a discussion this evening and we were wondering how does Disney calculate how many points they can sell per DVC resort? How does Disney know when a DVC resort is considered sold out, how is this calculated? ...thanks in advance!

I corrected an error in the following paragraph. The corrected info is in bold. I guess I shouldn't try posting messages so late at night! Sorry!

You raise some interesting questions, of which I only know part of the answers. In the case of Bay Lake Tower, I looked at the condo recordings and deed filings at the Orange County (FL) Comptroller's website. It appears that DVD has placed all the villas in 92 separate "phases", and two or three "units" in a phase. Each unit consists of either one two-bedroom villa, two two-bedroom villas, or a Grand Villa. It also appears that DVD has assigned about 19,640 points, 39,280 points, and 34,975 points to these units, respectively. The total points for all 224 units is about 5,825,540 points. All of these numbers are products of very educated guesswork, so I might be very accurate, or way off the mark. I waiting for someone to offer us a more concrete answer.

Your question "How does Disney know when a DVC resort is sold out" is spelled out in the Declaration of Condominium as recorded with the County. DVD can sell up to 98% of BLT's points, and will retain at least 2%. If there are 5.8+ million points in BLT, then Disney can sell about 5.7 million points.

As of July 20, 2009, Disney has declared about 48% of the BLT points to the DVC, which means they have probably sold a few percentage points less than that to the public.

Oh, one other thing: When calculating points available for each villa, the Declaration indicate that each has only 51 use weeks in a year.

There is a very interesting thread on "What Makes Up a BLT" on the Mousecellaneous Board about the composition of Bay Lake Tower. See http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2212548


Hope this info is of some interest to you.

 

[Dean]

They calculate the number of points to reserve the entire resort as NON lockoff units minus somewhere between 2 & 4%, likely more in the 4% range which they use for maint if needed and rent if not needed for maint.

 

[silmarg]

. The total points for all 224 units is about 5,825,540 points.

So if your educated guess is right, and they are selling these for some where in the $90s per point, then Disney will reap over $500 million for BLT! While I have no idea what it costs to build BLT, it must be a fraction of $500 million.

Talk about a profitable enterprise!

 

[toniosmom]

So if your educated guess is right, and they are selling these for some where in the $90s per point, then Disney will reap over $500 million for BLT! While I have no idea what it costs to build BLT, it must be a fraction of $500 million.

Talk about a profitable enterprise!

Wow....if that's the case, then we should see DVD resorts popping up all over the place! Me thinks that BLT is not the last at WDW Florida.

 

[crisi]

Its been profitable for them, but there are costs other than the building - I'd guess mostly sales and marketing expense - some R&D expense (someone drew up plans for Eagle Pines - that money was flushed down the toilet).

And while short term its really profitable, long term its a gamble - they get their money upfront - but if they could get good occupancy for 30 years on a typical hotel with higher margin they would have made more money in the end on the hotel. But its a good risk balancer in your portfolio - some properties where the majority of cash is created upfront - other properties where the cash flow is variable over time, but there is the potential for additional profit.

 

[Dean]

Wow....if that's the case, then we should see DVD resorts popping up all over the place! Me thinks that BLT is not the last at WDW Florida.

DVC has not shown the aptitude and aggressiveness to sell timeshares that don't have an external draw. The two current off site options were clearly failures from a sales standpoint. We'll see how they do with HI which I believe will take a fundamental shift for them to sell successfully, a shift for them to do what many here seem to think is anti Disney/DVC. Their past failures clearly cost us at least 3 off property resorts (CO, NY & Newport Coast).