TEA and AECOM post theme park attendance numbers for 2013

[lockedoutlogic]

When I first went to WDW there were 2 parks and I went for 4 days and 3 nights. I now go for 8 nights and 9 days once a year and 2 weekend trips of 4 days 3 nights. That totals 17 days at WDW with a season pass 14 nights at a DVC. With food and everything else I spend a small fortune at WDW and love it. I read more and more on the Boards that people from Europe, Asia and South America are spending 2 weeks or more on their Orlando vacations. Only having 4 gates means they have to leave WDW to see more. Why doesn't Disney offer more to keep them on site the entire time. On a 14 day vacation that would be 2 days at MK, 2 days at AK, 2 days at Epcot and 1 day at DHS and 1 day for things that were missed. That totals 8 days, add 2 days for water parks and a day for Disney Springs and there is still time for another gate. Remember WDW has guests from all over the world who take longer vacations and even those who only go one week but go every year do not want to do the same things every time. In the near future when I retire I will take three 9 day and 8 night vacations a year at WDW and would like more to do.

It may be counter intuitive...but Disney has reversed course on attempting to keep people captivated for "longer" trips.

As others are pointed out... Americans are the backbone customer and they have been getting squeezed out of time off and the money to travel for decades.

Europeans are very lucky...as their societies value it...but the American business perspective seems to be that system is failing because its too lax... And each time a EU country goes into credit default or near default...it strengthens the pigheaded American workaholic spirit...
Sucks...to be honest.

Back to Disney... One of the things the Eisner/ wells period did well was making wdw a full experience and pursue the repeat customer...offering like downtown, boardwalk, DVC, and dcl were done specifically to build "vacation brand loyalty" and they succeeded...

But they have reversed
Course over ten years and geared back towards the first time/longtime crowd.

They know there's a shrinking pool of repeat customers...so they aren't pursuing it as much as before.

The other problem with the thought of "more" is the economics of Florida...particularly labor. Though its basically minimum wage, they have huge admin and benefit costs even at low pay and there simply is not enough labor pool in Florida. Tourism wages stink...you become a slave to the "carefree" people you serve and have a hard time living your own life. Been there... Seen it...studied it. Disney has had to gut what "standards" they had in labor to fill shoes...and that had been for decades since they made the assessment that "low skilled" would do and brought pay and benefits inline accordingly relative to inflation.

Also...Florida's population actually decreases for the first time recently...

It's not just a matter of trying to keep those of you on Holiday entertained and protecting against defections to universal...much more complex.

 

[seascapemvy]

You're numbers are off...
The comfort capacity of magic kingdom is 100,000 and it can conceivable be pushed higher...that was an Internal number but that's what I recall.

The reality is that few people have seen the Disney parks at "really full " levels and most days are nowhere close.
Which means the premise that they'll "run out of capacity" and have to build another gate is DOA

Yes you are correct that 100,000 is capacity and if they increased hours to go 20 a day it might be 120,000 However given that everyone knows the weekend attendance is the highest and so a more realistic number taking into account lower weekday attendance is 25 million. Even if you raised my number by a few million it does not change the fact that a 5th gate will be needed and the only reasonable place for it is just to the west of the MK. That way they could close the gates to the MK and make the customers go to the 5th gate. The most important think is that the new park have attractions have to be aimed for the same family audience.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Yes you are correct that 100,000 is capacity and if they increased hours to go 20 a day it might be 120,000 However given that everyone knows the weekend attendance is the highest and so a more realistic number taking into account lower weekday attendance is 25 million. Even if you raised my number by a few million it does not change the fact that a 5th gate will be needed and the only reasonable place for it is just to the west of the MK. That way they could close the gates to the MK and make the customers go to the 5th gate. The most important think is that the new park have attractions have to be aimed for the same family audience.

Ok...I'll play...

Where are you getting your staff, how do you stop pulling people from your other parks, and how do you make enough profit to justify the park investment and operational cost?

That's where you need to start...the logistics and economics.

Your quoted numbers are low too in regards of costs...animal kingdoms was "several billions" to build - not near their official number - and the surrounding resort areas a fortune as well...
And that didnt really move the bar much.
You need to be thinking 5+ billion first...
And a "large" DVC certainly does generate money...but it still has to be paid for. The contracts are much closer to cost neutral than profitable...the profits come from the giftshop as always...
But you could build ten new dvcs and it's not gonna generate the capital to build anything close to a new park.

The cost of new parks is so out of hand that you don't really see them being built. Legoland could have bought and built a new park right near sea world...but they poorly retrofitted a relic 40 miles away...
New parks just aren't being built... With the exception of only the heaviest hitters in foreign/developing markets.

 

[seascapemvy]

Ok...I'll play...

Where are you getting your staff, how do you stop pulling people from your other parks, and how do you make enough profit to justify the park investment and operational cost?

That's where you need to start...the logistics and economics.

Your quoted numbers are low too in regards of costs...animal kingdoms was "several billions" to build - not near their official number - and the surrounding resort areas a fortune as well...
And that didnt really move the bar much.
You need to be thinking 5+ billion first...
And a "large" DVC certainly does generate money...but it still has to be paid for. The contracts are much closer to cost neutral than profitable...the profits come from the giftshop as always...
But you could build ten new dvcs and it's not gonna generate the capital to build anything close to a new park.

The cost of new parks is so out of hand that you don't really see them being built. Legoland could have bought and built a new park right near sea world...but they poorly retrofitted a relic 40 miles away...
New parks just aren't being built... With the exception of only the heaviest hitters in foreign/developing markets.

A DVC built between the MK and my proposed 5th gate with 1000 rooms would have approximately 20 million points depending on the mix of rooms. At a cost of 180 per point since it would have a special entrance to both MK and 5th gate would produce 3.6 billion in revenue. The profit would be about half that or 1.8 billion. The second DVC by Ft wilderness can produce the same profit by being a little larger. That 3.6 billion could build the 5th gate. One other thing. You are slightly wrong about DVC profits. DVC pays a Disney Transportation for their services and Disney Transportation makes a profit. They pay Disney Laundry service for cleaning sheets and towels and a Disney Laundry makes a profit. Every service provided to the DVC is done at a profit. As a DVC owner I don't care but I know DVC makes lots of money for Disney and not just from the sale of points.

I know we are talking about a major capital expenditure of 10 billion or so. 3 billion for 5th gate. 1 billion for DHS expansion. 1 billion for Epcot. 2 billion for a second expansion of AK near Asia. 2 billion for the 2 DVC and 1 billion for cost over runs. This could all be done over the next 7 years at a cost of just under 1.43 billion per year. The DVC profit of 3.6 billion, plus about 1 billion in profits from the planned 1000 to 1500 timeshares at Flamingo Crossing would pay 4.6 billion of the 10 billion investment. That leaves 5.4 billion. Over 7 years that less than 800 million a year. This can be paid off over time with the added profits from increased attendance and yearly profits from the 3 to 4 thousand a timeshare units and food sales.

 

[bcrook]

The full list has been released these are estimates as most parks don't release official numbers.

1. 18,588,000 Magic Kingdom up 6%
2. 17,214,000 Tokyo Disneyland up 15.9%
3. 16,202,000 Disneyland Anaheim up 1.5%
4. 14,084,000 Tokyo Disney sea up 11.3%
5. 11,229,000 Epcot up 1.5%
6. 10,430,000 Disneyland Paris down 6.9%
7. 10,198,000 Animal Kingdom up 2%
8. 10,110,000 Hollywood Studios up 2%
9. 10,100,000 universal studios japan up 4.1%
10. 8,514,000 California adventure up 9.5%
11. 8,141,000 islands of adventure up 2%
13. 7,400,000 Hong Kong Disneyland up 10.4%
16. 7,062,000 Universal studios Florida up 14%
17. 6,148,000 universal studios Hollywood up 4%
19. 5,090,000 seaworld Orlando down 5%
21. 4,470,000 walt Disney studios Paris down 6.9%

As for water parks Disney is two and three
Aquatica is seven
Wet n wild is ninth

You can't just look at attendance numbers as the be all to end all. Disneyland Paris has the highest attendance in Europe and they've been bleeding money since day 1.

In the case of WDW, remember the way multi-day tickets priced. The 4th day of a ticket is priced a lot lower than the first 3 days. For example, on base tickets a 4-day ticket costs only $20 more than a 3-day. That means the 4th day park (which is usually DAK or DHS) is only bringing in an extra $20 in admission revenue. For a 5-day ticket the 5th day is bringing in only an extra $10 in revenue.

Contrast that with USF and IOA. Not only are they bringing in higher admission revenue than either DAK or DHS, they are now going to force guests to upgrade to the park hopper option in order to experience Hogwarts Express.

That second MK day is 5th day.

I am still curious about the unique patrons visiting Disney versus Uni.

If most people visit all four parks and MK kingdom twice or some variation on that...or just assume that most people spend two days in MK. Then the number of unique visitors to WDW is probably about 9,000,000.

Those 9 million probably wander in and out of the parks cranking up the attendance numbers. I won't even try to worry about season pass guests who visit 20 times a year, they might offset those that just visit a park or two. The number is probably closer to 8.5 million unique guests.

If you use the same logic at universal. Most people spend a day at each park... The number of unique guests is probably somewhere between 7-8 million.

The actual number of unique guests is closer and closer together. Nearly the same number of people are visiting Uni Florida as those visiting WDW.

So now the question is, does Universal want the Disney model? Keep people on site longer and make money on food and lodging and souvenirs or do they continue to make more money on the two day pass and concentrate profits on the short visits.

Diagon Alley will cause the unique patron count to level out even more. It will draw a high number of new customers to Orlando, and they will all visit Universal.

 

[bcrook]

The full list has been released these are estimates as most parks don't release official numbers.

1. 18,588,000 Magic Kingdom up 6%
2. 17,214,000 Tokyo Disneyland up 15.9%
3. 16,202,000 Disneyland Anaheim up 1.5%
4. 14,084,000 Tokyo Disney sea up 11.3%
5. 11,229,000 Epcot up 1.5%
6. 10,430,000 Disneyland Paris down 6.9%
7. 10,198,000 Animal Kingdom up 2%
8. 10,110,000 Hollywood Studios up 2%
9. 10,100,000 universal studios japan up 4.1%
10. 8,514,000 California adventure up 9.5%
11. 8,141,000 islands of adventure up 2%
13. 7,400,000 Hong Kong Disneyland up 10.4%
16. 7,062,000 Universal studios Florida up 14%
17. 6,148,000 universal studios Hollywood up 4%
19. 5,090,000 seaworld Orlando down 5%
21. 4,470,000 walt Disney studios Paris down 6.9%

As for water parks Disney is two and three
Aquatica is seven
Wet n wild is ninth

Also with an average of 32,000 guests at Epcot and closer to 40,000 guests in the summer... One can see why there is ride rationing. With only 10,000 test track and 12,000 soarin seats to hand out a day, Epcot has a huge ride deficit.

 

[seascapemvy]

That second MK day is 5th day.

I am still curious about the unique patrons visiting Disney versus Uni.

If most people visit all four parks and MK kingdom twice or some variation on that...or just assume that most people spend two days in MK. Then the number of unique visitors to WDW is probably about 9,000,000.

Those 9 million probably wander in and out of the parks cranking up the attendance numbers. I won't even try to worry about season pass guests who visit 20 times a year, they might offset those that just visit a park or two. The number is probably closer to 8.5 million unique guests.

If you use the same logic at universal. Most people spend a day at each park... The number of unique guests is probably somewhere between 7-8 million.

The actual number of unique guests is closer and closer together. Nearly the same number of people are visiting Uni Florida as those visiting WDW.

So now the question is, does Universal want the Disney model? Keep people on site longer and make money on food and lodging and souvenirs or do they continue to make more money on the two day pass and concentrate profits on the short visits.

Diagon Alley will cause the unique patron count to level out even more. It will draw a high number of new customers to Orlando, and they will all visit Universal.

The number of unique customers is an issue that no one here knows. From everything I have seen posted on the various boards Universal has a much larger share of local season pass holder's. If that is true then the number of unique visitors at Universal is much lower than your estimate. For example I have a six flags season pass and my 2 wife and I go 30 times a year. That counts as 60 visits. In universal there are 8 and 7 million in each hand park. If 25 percent of them go to the right parks in the same day it would cut the numbers by 25%. Then take into account that a large percentage go 2 days and it gets cut in half. There are also the local season ticket holders and it cut again. So how many unique visitors are there at universal it co I lo easily be below 2 million. Keep this in mind to ride hogwartz express a 2 park ticket is required. That means double counting the vast majority of guests. If the average guest buy a 2 day 2 pass ticket they will count as 4 visits.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

A DVC built between the MK and my proposed 5th gate with 1000 rooms would have approximately 20 million points depending on the mix of rooms. At a cost of 180 per point since it would have a special entrance to both MK and 5th gate would produce 3.6 billion in revenue. The profit would be about half that or 1.8 billion. The second DVC by Ft wilderness can produce the same profit by being a little larger. That 3.6 billion could build the 5th gate. One other thing. You are slightly wrong about DVC profits. DVC pays a Disney Transportation for their services and Disney Transportation makes a profit. They pay Disney Laundry service for cleaning sheets and towels and a Disney Laundry makes a profit. Every service provided to the DVC is done at a profit. As a DVC owner I don't care but I know DVC makes lots of money for Disney and not just from the sale of points.

I know we are talking about a major capital expenditure of 10 billion or so. 3 billion for 5th gate. 1 billion for DHS expansion. 1 billion for Epcot. 2 billion for a second expansion of AK near Asia. 2 billion for the 2 DVC and 1 billion for cost over runs. This could all be done over the next 7 years at a cost of just under 1.43 billion per year. The DVC profit of 3.6 billion, plus about 1 billion in profits from the planned 1000 to 1500 timeshares at Flamingo Crossing would pay 4.6 billion of the 10 billion investment. That leaves 5.4 billion. Over 7 years that less than 800 million a year. This can be paid off over time with the added profits from increased attendance and yearly profits from the 3 to 4 thousand a timeshare units and food sales.

You didnt address the operational side of it. Believe it or not...that is a far bigger deal than the financed initial construction cost. Employees are a huge problem/liability and why you'll see disney make an effort to REDUCE (ie outsource) their pool as time goes...
You can't say it's possible to build all that expansion without looking at why they potentially wouldn't want to...
It's like making marinara without tomatoes.

And DVC is not being built for upfront contract profit...you're only looking at the sale of the units in a vacuum...and I think you know that math doesn't work.
The "profit"...if any on a $150 point sale is a small fraction of the price...as with any consumer product...and doesn't yield billions in quick investment capital.

You'd also be in hell if they plopped 1000-2000+ new DVC rooms and a full park all near the magic kingdom...it would be a logistical nightmare and you might very well drive people away.
That...and their strategy would be to put a new park somewhere on the lower west side near animal kingdom to prop up the lower side of the property anyway...

I like your thoughts...but you're stretching the earthly bonds of reality a little here

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Bcrook...


You're forgetting the land...doesn't matter what Comcast wants...they just don't have the land.

Unless they turn dr Phillips high and the golf course into lord of the rings/hobbit land...

1964 swampland/fertilizer farm is hard to come by these days

 

[bcrook]

The number of unique customers is an issue that no one here knows. From everything I have seen posted on the various boards Universal has a much larger share of local season pass holder's. If that is true then the number of unique visitors at Universal is much lower than your estimate. For example I have a six flags season pass and my 2 wife and I go 30 times a year. That counts as 60 visits. In universal there are 8 and 7 million in each hand park. If 25 percent of them go to the right parks in the same day it would cut the numbers by 25%. Then take into account that a large percentage go 2 days and it gets cut in half. There are also the local season ticket holders and it cut again. So how many unique visitors are there at universal it co I lo easily be below 2 million. Keep this in mind to ride hogwartz express a 2 park ticket is required. That means double counting the vast majority of guests. If the average guest buy a 2 day 2 pass ticket they will count as 4 visits.

You could use the same model on wdw and drop that number too.

Also I am pretty sure park attendance is based on the first park you enter a day. So if 20,000 people a day enter DAK and then leave at 3:00 and move to Epcot for illuminations... Those 20,000 don't count twice.

There is no doubt that universal is closing the gap on the number of unique customers.

 

[bcrook]

Bcrook...


You're forgetting the land...doesn't matter what Comcast wants...they just don't have the land.

Unless they turn dr Phillips high and the golf course into lord of the rings/hobbit land...

1964 swampland/fertilizer farm is hard to come by these days

Yea I understand that. But universal is expanding and improving. They haven't reached their sweet spot yet.

I wonder where that is for them. With their footprint limited what is their ideal attendance number.

 

[seascapemvy]

You could use the same model on wdw and drop that number too.

Also I am pretty sure park attendance is based on the first park you enter a day. So if 20,000 people a day enter DAK and then leave at 3:00 and move to Epcot for illuminations... Those 20,000 don't count twice.

There is no doubt that universal is closing the gap on the number of unique customers.

Of course you are right and the Disney number of unique visitors is not the total of the 4 parks. Also I agree that there are probably less that 1/3 of that 50 million number. I wish I know the exact number. what I do know is that there are about 34,000 hotel rooms on property with 87% occupancy. I think the number of hotel rooms and occupancy rate is better in determining the number of unique visitors than any other method. Therefore you can count as a starting point that each room is used at least once a week and for 52 weeks that would total 1,768,000 and if there were an average of just 2 people per room that would mean 3,536,000 unique visitors from on property guests. It would be expected to have at least that many staying off property and then adding local customers would indicate well over 7.25 million unique visitors. This estimate is based on an extremely low estimate so it has to be significantly higher. If the average customer went to 6 parks it would mean 8,333,333 unique visitors. I would think the actual number is actually higher but it is a good way to estimate it. I only wish I had more information on how long the average guest stays on property. Also I would expect the actual number of unique visitors to Universals 2 parks to be between 3,000,000 and 4,250,000.

 

[seascapemvy]

You didnt address the operational side of it. Believe it or not...that is a far bigger deal than the financed initial construction cost. Employees are a huge problem/liability and why you'll see disney make an effort to REDUCE (ie outsource) their pool as time goes...
You can't say it's possible to build all that expansion without looking at why they potentially wouldn't want to...
It's like making marinara without tomatoes.

And DVC is not being built for upfront contract profit...you're only looking at the sale of the units in a vacuum...and I think you know that math doesn't work.
The "profit"...if any on a $150 point sale is a small fraction of the price...as with any consumer product...and doesn't yield billions in quick investment capital.

You'd also be in hell if they plopped 1000-2000+ new DVC rooms and a full park all near the magic kingdom...it would be a logistical nightmare and you might very well drive people away.
That...and their strategy would be to put a new park somewhere on the lower west side near animal kingdom to prop up the lower side of the property anyway...

I like your thoughts...but you're stretching the earthly bonds of reality a little here

Employees are always an issue. But Orlando keeps growing and is now the fourth largest city in Florida. The employee costs for the resort would come from the DVC fees and food and other sales just like the employees of the park would come from ticket and other sales. I think you could count on 10 million in attendance within a shot time and with an average ticket price of 50.00 would provide 400,000,000 for operations and 100,000,000 in profits per year not counting food and other sales. The attendance as this gate would increase signifacntly and infact help keep the others in check. DHS just can't grow that much more. AK needs to grow and become a second major draw lowering the constant damnd for growth at MK.

As for the logistics of a 1000 unit resort on the west side of the MK and a new 5th gate. I think that can be handled by building a new road dedicated to the new resort on the north of the park and then down the west side of the property. Not a huge issue. As for the Developement of AK. I think with Pandora and a huge expansion near Asia there is no need to a new park there right now. As for the other major deluxe DVC near Ft. Wilderness that is easily workout with the existing roads and minor adjustments. And then the Flamingo Crossing which will evenutally have about 5,000 hotel and timeshare rooms.

the goal of this would be to have combined attendance of MK and 5th gate to 35 to 40 million, Epcot 20 million and DHS 15 million. Finally AK at about 25 million also. Maximum capacity would be 50 million in the north, 45 million in the center and 35 million at a much larger AK. This plan depends on the expansion of all the parks except MK.

 

[DanBoris]

Bcrook...


You're forgetting the land...doesn't matter what Comcast wants...they just don't have the land.

Unless they turn dr Phillips high and the golf course into lord of the rings/hobbit land...

1964 swampland/fertilizer farm is hard to come by these days

There is limited land directly adjacent to the current parks, but that doesn't mean they can't look elsewhere. WDW's parks are in some cases miles apart.

 

[ChipnDale79]

Bcrook...


You're forgetting the land...doesn't matter what Comcast wants...they just don't have the land.

Unless they turn dr Phillips high and the golf course into lord of the rings/hobbit land...

1964 swampland/fertilizer farm is hard to come by these days

Has anyone else wondered how much it must suck to be a student at that school?

You're stuck in class, and literally right across the street is Universal Studios.

You're in hell, meanwhile a couple of hundred feet from you are thousands of people having the time of their lives haha.

Poor kids.


It's not a ton of land, but that's an obstacle Comcast can overcome if they really wanted to. They have the money to build a new school somewhere else to replace this one.

 

[ChipnDale79]

There is limited land directly adjacent to the current parks, but that doesn't mean they can't look elsewhere. WDW's parks are in some cases miles apart.

It's the perception of "I've left the real world and at WDW" that Universal will never be able to copy.

In order to do that, they would have to have the amount of land WDW does, and that's not going to happen.

If they build parks in different parts of the city, you've got to get on a bus and deal with Orlando traffic, and you get to see everything Orlando offers. Hardly leaving "the real world".

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Has anyone else wondered how much it must suck to be a student at that school?

You're stuck in class, and literally right across the street is Universal Studios.

You're in hell, meanwhile a couple of hundred feet from you are thousands of people having the time of their lives haha.

Poor kids.

It's not a ton of land, but that's an obstacle Comcast can overcome if they really wanted to. They have the money to build a new school somewhere else to replace this one.

Dueling dragons literally does an Immelmann or cobra roll right up next to the wall...it's literally yards away

 

[seascapemvy]

Has anyone else wondered how much it must suck to be a student at that school?

You're stuck in class, and literally right across the street is Universal Studios.

You're in hell, meanwhile a couple of hundred feet from you are thousands of people having the time of their lives haha.

Poor kids.


It's not a ton of land, but that's an obstacle Comcast can overcome if they really wanted to. They have the money to build a new school somewhere else to replace this one.

I seriously doubt that Orlando would ever argee to sell a school. I know of two mayors in NJ that lost elections due to locations of Schools and any charge could be a disaster for the elected officials.

In any case, I do not think you have any idea what it costs to build a new school. Newton HS in Massachsetts cost 197.5 million to build. North Atlanta HS cost $147,893,989 for about 1,650 students. The cost of the land, the new school construction and sports fields are just the start. Then you have to tear down the existing school and get the neighbors to agree. Well if they are anything like those up here in the north, pleople who paid tens of thousands of dollars extra for a house on a golf course, count on them fighting any idea of Universal building right next to them. It would probably cost hundreds of millions more for that. Over all it would cost well over 500 million if not a billion just for the land to build on. I can't see that ever happening since it would cost 3 billion or so for the new gate.

When Universal finally does build a third gate I think it will be on the other side of I4. It will take years because from a financial standpoint, investments in Asia will provide a much better return. Disney has shown that and Universal is not stupid. In the next few years the top attended parks will be in Asia. Shanghi Disney and Hong Kong will both pass the MK. No one will pass the total WDW has in their combined parks but on an individual basis there is no doubt that Asia is where the growth and money is. Disney will build a 5th gate at WDW long before Universal builds a 3rd. Universal is further behind on building in Asia and using their money now to build a much more expensive gate that will not provide the profit they can make in Asia would be a big mistake and I can say it looks like the new management at Universal is anything but stupid.

 

[rteetz]

I seriously doubt that Orlando would ever argee to sell a school. I know of two mayors in NJ that lost elections due to locations of Schools and any charge could be a disaster for the elected officials. In any case, I do not think you have any idea what it costs to build a new school. Newton HS in Massachsetts cost 197.5 million to build. North Atlanta HS cost $147,893,989 for about 1,650 students. The cost of the land, the new school construction and sports fields are just the start. Then you have to tear down the existing school and get the neighbors to agree. Well if they are anything like those up here in the north, pleople who paid tens of thousands of dollars extra for a house on a golf course, count on them fighting any idea of Universal building right next to them. It would probably cost hundreds of millions more for that. Over all it would cost well over 500 million if not a billion just for the land to build on. I can't see that ever happening since it would cost 3 billion or so for the new gate. When Universal finally does build a third gate I think it will be on the other side of I4. It will take years because from a financial standpoint, investments in Asia will provide a much better return. Disney has shown that and Universal is not stupid. In the next few years the top attended parks will be in Asia. Shanghi Disney and Hong Kong will both pass the MK. No one will pass the total WDW has in their combined parks but on an individual basis there is no doubt that Asia is where the growth and money is. Disney will build a 5th gate at WDW long before Universal builds a 3rd. Universal is further behind on building in Asia and using their money now to build a much more expensive gate that will not provide the profit they can make in Asia would be a big mistake and I can say it looks like the new management at Universal is anything but stupid.

I actually disagree that disney will build another park before universal. I do agree we are a long way from either but I think universal will be the first to another gate. I also agree that Asia is the target right now because they have the largest theme park market. I think once shanghai opens it will be a massive hit for disney and will surpass many of disneys parks on the attendance list. Right now Asia is where everyone wants to be thats why disney isn't completely focused on the US parks. I'm sure once disney has a large foot print in Asia they will come back and we will see some big things in the US but it won't be for at least 15-20 years.

 

[seascapemvy]

I actually disagree that disney will build another park before universal. I do agree we are a long way from either but I think universal will be the first to another gate. I also agree that Asia is the target right now because they have the largest theme park market. I think once shanghai opens it will be a massive hit for disney and will surpass many of disneys parks on the attendance list. Right now Asia is where everyone wants to be thats why disney isn't completely focused on the US parks. I'm sure once disney has a large foot print in Asia they will come back and we will see some big things in the US but it won't be for at least 15-20 years.

I am glad we agree on Asia and I will leave the issue of who will expand in Orlando first until later. However, Disney will continue to grow and in fact I think will grow faster is for 2 reasons. First Flamingo Grossing will have 5,000 hotel and timeshare rooms. It also opens up all that land for Orange Lake has to build on and give them direct access to WDW. Disney will also continue to spend another billion or more into AK, besides what is currently being worked on, they will expand in that park new Asia, very funny that they left area for their next AK expansion. Disney will draw over 70 million customers, at least as counted for attendance, in 2021. the total number of hotel rooms on property either owned or leased or timeshares will be over 50,000 by 2025. Universal may or may not by then have the 10,000 rooms they have been talking about but they will also be owned by the partnership with Lowes Hotels and not completely owned and operated like most of Disney's. They will be more like the leased hotels. In any case Orlando and the surrounding area will be the big winner with the new jobs and tax money.