TEA and AECOM post theme park attendance numbers for 2013

[sheetz]

Well since WDW has more hotels and far more people that stay on site to visit, and sell far more merchandise on site, and based on the Theme Park divisions profits, I think you can. Disney does better per visitor with their hotels and their merchandise.

Financial reports look at the theme park as a whole but I'm looking specifically at the incremental profits of operating DAK. Exactly much value does DAK add to WDW? Just because DAK has higher attendance than IOA does it mean that it generates more profit? If DAK is so wildly profitable for Disney then why hasn't WDW started on the 5th gate? After all it should be an easy matter to pump up the attendance just by charging a few extra dollars a day on multi-day tickets.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Disagree

I give them their due for building the complex through the late 90's...

But reject any argument that they have not sat on their laurels since.

Most definitely have except for vacation club

 

[Disneychick75]

You know, I was actually considering taking a trip to uni this year, staying on site to get the benefit of the front of the line pass included. Upon checking into it for about 2 minutes, I find that the all famed HP area is not included in the pass. Forget it. My kids have been there and being huge HP fans, they were disappointed. No need for me to go.

On site guests can enter the park 1 hour earlier which makes a HUGE difference. When Wizarding World opened, we took advantage of this and got in pretty quickly.

I give them their due for building the complex through the late 90's...

But reject any argument that they have not sat on their laurels since.

Most definitely have except for vacation club

Agree

 

[seascapemvy]

You can't just look at attendance numbers as the be all to end all. Disneyland Paris has the highest attendance in Europe and they've been bleeding money since day 1.

In the case of WDW, remember the way multi-day tickets priced. The 4th day of a ticket is priced a lot lower than the first 3 days. For example, on base tickets a 4-day ticket costs only $20 more than a 3-day. That means the 4th day park (which is usually DAK or DHS) is only bringing in an extra $20 in admission revenue. For a 5-day ticket the 5th day is bringing in only an extra $10 in revenue.

Contrast that with USF and IOA. Not only are they bringing in higher admission revenue than either DAK or DHS, they are now going to force guests to upgrade to the park hopper option in order to experience Hogwarts Express.

Are you saying it's a good thing that Universal is now forcing people into buying a park to park ticket and paying more of their hard earned money just for one ride? I think Disney has it right in giving people a break for staying more days. Besides you have to look at the average price per day, if you do that and look at the season pass, there is no way you can say the average revenue per day per person is higher at a universal than Disney. Also you have to take into account the hotel revenue and Disney has just about 34000 hotel rooms and fill 87% on average every night at a higher price that Universal has.

 

[ChipnDale79]

I give them their due for building the complex through the late 90's...

But reject any argument that they have not sat on their laurels since.

Most definitely have except for vacation club

I think they've been resting on their laurels for the past 10 years, there's really no argument there.

But if they hold the same notion that you do, that we don't have to worry about any other competitors so we don't have to wow our guest any more, then you and Disney are both thinking in short term views.

I think Iger has been great for the studios and has a clear vision of the long term future. However he's got a very stunted short term view of WDW.

In the long term, thinking like yours and Iger's will hurt the Disney brand. But what does Iger care? He'll be gone in 20-30 years and his family will have reaped the benefits many times over.

I do believe that things are coming for WDW though, I know you'll continue to be a sour puss and Mr. Negativity like you always are on here. But Disney will build something big at some point at WDW.

 

[seascapemvy]

Financial reports look at the theme park as a whole but I'm looking specifically at the incremental profits of operating DAK. Exactly much value does DAK add to WDW? Just because DAK has higher attendance than IOA does it mean that it generates more profit? If DAK is so wildly profitable for Disney then why hasn't WDW started on the 5th gate? After all it should be an easy matter to pump up the attendance just by charging a few extra dollars a day on multi-day tickets.

Look at the financial reports. The longer people stay on property the more Disney profits. Also do you think if Disney built a 5th gate that it would not cut into the attendance figures at Universal? Disney has approximately 34000 hotel rooms to fill. There will be thousands more by 2021. Counting the hotels that rent from Disney, hotel plaza and Dolphin and Swan and the new ones at Flamingo Crossing it's very possible the number of hotel rooms by 2025 will be over 50,000. Where do these people go and for how many days. The idea that anyone could say and believe that just adding 1 day a magical cost of 10.00 is not a better use of someone's money and it is the customers money not Disney or universals is crazy and doesn't understand business. In fact your reasons for saying universal is doing better is the reason customers should stay at WDW and not go to Universal. A company that gives it's customers the best value for their money is the business I want to support and you say Universal slants to force me and others to spend more per day and we should spend it is.....

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I think they've been resting on their laurels for the past 10 years, there's really no argument there.

But if they hold the same notion that you do, that we don't have to worry about any other competitors so we don't have to wow our guest any more, then you and Disney are both thinking in short term views.

I think Iger has been great for the studios and has a clear vision of the long term future. However he's got a very stunted short term view of WDW.

In the long term, thinking like yours and Iger's will hurt the Disney brand. But what does Iger care? He'll be gone in 20-30 years and his family will have reaped the benefits many times over.

I do believe that things are coming for WDW though, I know you'll continue to be a sour puss and Mr. Negativity like you always are on here. But Disney will build something big at some point at WDW.

Just to be clear...

I don't share Iger's philosophy...I just don't think they see any reason to alter it based on Economics...

Orlando is Incredibly profitable, and we have been terrible consumers by paying whatever prices they set without really asking for a think in return...myself included.

It's not negativity, it's recognition that there has been a shift in operational philosophy over the last 15 years. That comes from my perception of the data.

If I'm negative (which I am)...then saying "I know they'll build something" is sunny side up...which you might be...

I think they've eroded the faith in that stance. And as always...I hope they prove me wrong.

But I trust the shovels...as always

 

[ChipnDale79]

Just to be clear...

I don't share Iger's philosophy...I just don't think they see any reason to alter it based on Economics...

Orlando is Incredibly profitable, and we have been terrible consumers by paying whatever prices they set without really asking for a think in return...myself included.

It's not negativity, it's recognition that there has been a shift in operational philosophy over the last 15 years. That comes from my perception of the data.

If I'm negative (which I am)...then saying "I know they'll build something" is sunny side up...which you might be...

I think they've eroded the faith in that stance. And as always...I hope they prove me wrong.

But I trust the shovels...as always

Disney's attendance numbers are up for one reason only, the Economy has gotten better and people have more money to spend.

I gripe and complain about the cost of a Disney vacation just as much as the next guy, but to be honest, when you start to compare a Disney vacation against just about any other one. Disney is pretty competitive or is actually a good deal. That's why people are still going.

I do think that letting things get stale will hurt them long term though. I think they even know that and will do something to prevent that from happening at some point.

You don't spend the type of money you do on Lucas Films and not bring more Star Wars to the parks. That'll happen, I'm not sure when, but it will.

I think people are starting to complain about Epcot, so something will happen there as well.

We can sit here and talk about record growth and record profits all we want to, but I hold firm on my previous comments that by standing still, Disney is also missing out on even more record profits and record attendance numbers.

For the first time in a long long time, more and more people are going to Orlando, but not just for Disney, they are also going to Universal for a couple of days.

 

[sheetz]

Look at the financial reports. The longer people stay on property the more Disney profits. Also do you think if Disney built a 5th gate that it would not cut into the attendance figures at Universal?

A 5th gate might hurt Universal to some extent, but it would almost certainly cannibalize attendance from their other 4 parks as well. If it were so easy to keep making money by building parks and charging $10 for admission then WDW would build another half dozen parks.

The fact is that there's a limit to the number of parks that WDW can build and still make an acceptable amount of profit. People are limited by both their time and money, so at a certain point it makes no sense to build any more parks.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

A 5th gate might hurt Universal to some extent, but it would almost certainly cannibalize attendance from their other 4 parks as well. If it were so easy to keep making money by building parks and charging $10 for admission then WDW would build another half dozen parks.

The fact is that there's a limit to the number of parks that WDW can build and still make an acceptable amount of profit. People are limited by both their time and money, so at a certain point it makes no sense to build any more parks.

I agree...and I believe they passed "the point"

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Disney's attendance numbers are up for one reason only, the Economy has gotten better and people have more money to spend.

I gripe and complain about the cost of a Disney vacation just as much as the next guy, but to be honest, when you start to compare a Disney vacation against just about any other one. Disney is pretty competitive or is actually a good deal. That's why people are still going.

I do think that letting things get stale will hurt them long term though. I think they even know that and will do something to prevent that from happening at some point.

You don't spend the type of money you do on Lucas Films and not bring more Star Wars to the parks. That'll happen, I'm not sure when, but it will.

I think people are starting to complain about Epcot, so something will happen there as well.

We can sit here and talk about record growth and record profits all we want to, but I hold firm on my previous comments that by standing still, Disney is also missing out on even more record profits and record attendance numbers.

For the first time in a long long time, more and more people are going to Orlando, but not just for Disney, they are also going to Universal for a couple of days.

We agree probably 98%...

But as you pointed out...the Iger mentality is a roadblock. Disney's "why not?" Approach to construction is more a "why should?" These days...

I just don't see the same urgency that you do...not saying you're wrong.

I'm sure we'll see lots of Star Wars stuff...I'm just not convinced its gonna be innovative entertainment included in admissions...as it should be.

Remember... Star Wars is the global licensed product champion... With only Disney's own brands rivaling it.

With all due respect...that's why they bought Star Wars. We just hope they throw us a bone or two.

 

[seascapemvy]

A 5th gate might hurt Universal to some extent, but it would almost certainly cannibalize attendance from their other 4 parks as well. If it were so easy to keep making money by building parks and charging $10 for admission then WDW would build another half dozen parks.

The fact is that there's a limit to the number of parks that WDW can build and still make an acceptable amount of profit. People are limited by both their time and money, so at a certain point it makes no sense to build any more parks.

The reason you are wrong on this is that there is an actual limit to possible attendance in the existing gates. The MK limit is somewhere around 25 million. DHS is about 12 million. Epcot may be able to handle 20 million if it is expanded a little. AK has the largest possible capacity once Pandora is built and if they expand near Asia, it possible the capacity could be 30 million. that adds up to a total of 87 million. What will they do then? the only solution is a 5th gate. It would not cannibalize attendance at the other 4 gates. 200,000 people a day total 73,000,000. I believe they will average that in the 2020's. Therefore, taking into account all the possible expansions they can do with all their parks they would be just about at capacity. what would you do next? nothing or expand? You have explained why people should spend more time at WDW than anywhere else and that it is actually a great bargin.

 

[sheetz]

The reason you are wrong on this is that there is an actual limit to possible attendance in the existing gates. The MK limit is somewhere around 25 million. DHS is about 12 million. Epcot may be able to handle 20 million if it is expanded a little. AK has the largest possible capacity once Pandora is built and if they expand near Asia, it possible the capacity could be 30 million. that adds up to a total of 87 million. What will they do then? the only solution is a 5th gate. It would not cannibalize attendance at the other 4 gates. 200,000 people a day total 73,000,000. I believe they will average that in the 2020's. Therefore, taking into account all the possible expansions they can do with all their parks they would be just about at capacity. what would you do next? nothing or expand? You have explained why people should spend more time at WDW than anywhere else and that it is actually a great bargin.

The problem is not capacity. The problem is guests who have limited time and money.

 

[seascapemvy]

The problem is not capacity. The problem is guests who have limited time and money.

When I first went to WDW there were 2 parks and I went for 4 days and 3 nights. I now go for 8 nights and 9 days once a year and 2 weekend trips of 4 days 3 nights. That totals 17 days at WDW with a season pass 14 nights at a DVC. With food and everything else I spend a small fortune at WDW and love it. I read more and more on the Boards that people from Europe, Asia and South America are spending 2 weeks or more on their Orlando vacations. Only having 4 gates means they have to leave WDW to see more. Why doesn't Disney offer more to keep them on site the entire time. On a 14 day vacation that would be 2 days at MK, 2 days at AK, 2 days at Epcot and 1 day at DHS and 1 day for things that were missed. That totals 8 days, add 2 days for water parks and a day for Disney Springs and there is still time for another gate. Remember WDW has guests from all over the world who take longer vacations and even those who only go one week but go every year do not want to do the same things every time. In the near future when I retire I will take three 9 day and 8 night vacations a year at WDW and would like more to do.

 

[mcd2745]

We agree probably 98%...

But as you pointed out...the Iger mentality is a roadblock. Disney's "why not?" Approach to construction is more a "why should?" These days...

I just don't see the same urgency that you do...not saying you're wrong.

I'm sure we'll see lots of Star Wars stuff...I'm just not convinced its gonna be innovative entertainment included in admissions...as it should be.


Remember... Star Wars is the global licensed product champion... With only Disney's own brands rivaling it.

With all due respect...that's why they bought Star Wars. We just hope they throw us a bone or two.

Perhaps another night-time hard ticket party/event with a SW theme? They seem to be the flavor of the month. And why not? Guests are eating them up, even with the high prices. They've got to be a cash cow for Disney.

 

[sheetz]

Remember WDW has guests from all over the world who take longer vacations and even those who only go one week but go every year do not want to do the same things every time. In the near future when I retire I will take three 9 day and 8 night vacations a year at WDW and would like more to do.

The vast majority of visitors to WDW will always be Americans. In the last several decades the average vacation length for Americans has steadily declined.
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/arti...cape-the-long-vacation-is-a-thing-of-the-past

In 1975, the association reports, vacations lasted on average more than a week. By 1985, the average vacation had shrunk to 5.4 days, and by 2010, according to the group's latest data, the average stood at 3.8 days.

WDW in particular has shown they are more interested in catering to infrequent visitors than those who visit 1 or more times a year. So if the average American vacation is only 4 days it doesn't make any sense to have much more than 4 days worth of activities.

 

[Yellowstonetim]

When I first went to WDW there were 2 parks and I went for 4 days and 3 nights. I now go for 8 nights and 9 days once a year and 2 weekend trips of 4 days 3 nights. That totals 17 days at WDW with a season pass 14 nights at a DVC. With food and everything else I spend a small fortune at WDW and love it. I read more and more on the Boards that people from Europe, Asia and South America are spending 2 weeks or more on their Orlando vacations. Only having 4 gates means they have to leave WDW to see more. Why doesn't Disney offer more to keep them on site the entire time. On a 14 day vacation that would be 2 days at MK, 2 days at AK, 2 days at Epcot and 1 day at DHS and 1 day for things that were missed. That totals 8 days, add 2 days for water parks and a day for Disney Springs and there is still time for another gate. Remember WDW has guests from all over the world who take longer vacations and even those who only go one week but go every year do not want to do the same things every time. In the near future when I retire I will take three 9 day and 8 night vacations a year at WDW and would like more to do.

There are two ways to look at the above. Some people are already coming for 2 weeks and spending it mostly at Disney. I just did a 10 day trip. The longer the trip, the less I want to spend every minute in a theme park. !0 day, one at Universal and our time was full! Disney is offering more without the 5th gate, and are losing very little time. We were curious about HP and would have gone 5th gate or not.

Second, people that come for two weeks are the minority. The majority of people spend one week.

The very things you list are reasons Disney doesn't NEED a 5th gate. 2 Waterparks, lots of activities, Disney Springs, 4 parks with plenty to do for 2 days or more. Etc. Etc. Don't get me wrong, I would love a 5th gate, but don't think it would be worth the tens of Billions it would cost.

Disney only needs three things: Pandora to open, Star Wars land at DHS, An updated pavilion and nation at Epcot. Then the numbers will be huge and Disney's problem will not be attracting people but managing them - hence the need for MM+.

 

[seascapemvy]

There are two ways to look at the above. Some people are already coming for 2 weeks and spending it mostly at Disney. I just did a 10 day trip. The longer the trip, the less I want to spend every minute in a theme park. !0 day, one at Universal and our time was full! Disney is offering more without the 5th gate, and are losing very little time. We were curious about HP and would have gone 5th gate or not.

Second, people that come for two weeks are the minority. The majority of people spend one week.

The very things you list are reasons Disney doesn't NEED a 5th gate. 2 Waterparks, lots of activities, Disney Springs, 4 parks with plenty to do for 2 days or more. Etc. Etc. Don't get me wrong, I would love a 5th gate, but don't think it would be worth the tens of Billions it would cost.

Disney only needs three things: Pandora to open, Star Wars land at DHS, An updated pavilion and nation at Epcot. Then the numbers will be huge and Disney's problem will not be attracting people but managing them - hence the need for MM+.

We will just have to disagree. The international travelers and DVC members stay longer and the number of DVC members are increasing every year. Add that to the fact that Orlando is the timeshare capital of the world and you can count on attendance doubling over the next 15 to 20 years but WDW could not possibly handle those numbers. Attendance of 100 million without a 5th gate would cause a compete collapse at WDW. Disney needs major expansion of the 3 other parks and an Orlando Adventure Land just like California. But that is only my belief and that it could all be paid for by a large DVC between MK and the 5th gate and a DVC by the Ft Wilderness Camp grounds. The cost of the 5th gate should be about 3 billion along with 1 billion expansion for each DHS and Epcot and a couple more for AK. All totaled the cost would be approximately 10 billion including the DVC costs and the ticket sales of 50 million people at an average of $50.00 per ticket, average price per day, 2.5 billion a year not counting food sales and DVC profits. Granted 50 percent of that will happen with nothing being built but that is still 1.25 billion in profits a year with an investment almost entirely paid for by DVC sales. I still think with nothing else being done attendance will be over 70 million in 2021 and be at capacity.

 

[Yellowstonetim]

We will just have to disagree. The international travelers and DVC members stay longer and the number of DVC members are increasing every year. Add that to the fact that Orlando is the timeshare capital of the world and you can count on attendance doubling over the next 15 to 20 years but WDW could not possibly handle those numbers. Attendance of 100 million without a 5th gate would cause a compete collapse at WDW. Disney needs major expansion of the 3 other parks and an Orlando Adventure Land just like California. But that is only my belief and that it could all be paid for by a large DVC between MK and the 5th gate and a DVC by the Ft Wilderness Camp grounds. The cost of the 5th gate should be about 3 billion along with 1 billion expansion for each DHS and Epcot and a couple more for AK. All totaled the cost would be approximately 10 billion including the DVC costs and the ticket sales of 50 million people at an average of $50.00 per ticket, average price per day, 2.5 billion a year not counting food sales and DVC profits. Granted 50 percent of that will happen with nothing being built but that is still 1.25 billion in profits a year with an investment almost entirely paid for by DVC sales. I still think with nothing else being done attendance will be over 70 million in 2021 and be at capacity.

I will give you that, looking 20 years down the road. I am thinking more short term. But, if attendance keeps climbing you are correct that there are limits. Then a 5th gate might be necessary. It creates an interesting problem. They need more gates to handle more people, but the people that come want to visit them all. So if they all stay longer and visit them all Disney makes more money but the problem is not solved. What they need is people to visit some and not others, but I would be unhappy if they had enough parks that I could not visit them all each time.

I wonder what the length of stay was for the millions that visited MK ? I am sure Disney looks at these stats and makes their decisions accordingly.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

The reason you are wrong on this is that there is an actual limit to possible attendance in the existing gates. The MK limit is somewhere around 25 million. DHS is about 12 million. Epcot may be able to handle 20 million if it is expanded a little. AK has the largest possible capacity once Pandora is built and if they expand near Asia, it possible the capacity could be 30 million. that adds up to a total of 87 million. What will they do then? the only solution is a 5th gate. It would not cannibalize attendance at the other 4 gates. 200,000 people a day total 73,000,000. I believe they will average that in the 2020's. Therefore, taking into account all the possible expansions they can do with all their parks they would be just about at capacity. what would you do next? nothing or expand? You have explained why people should spend more time at WDW than anywhere else and that it is actually a great bargin.

You're numbers are off...
The comfort capacity of magic kingdom is 100,000 and it can conceivable be pushed higher...that was an Internal number but that's what I recall.

The reality is that few people have seen the Disney parks at "really full " levels and most days are nowhere close.
Which means the premise that they'll "run out of capacity" and have to build another gate is DOA