TEA and AECOM post theme park attendance numbers for 2013

[rteetz]

I am glad we agree on Asia and I will leave the issue of who will expand in Orlando first until later. However, Disney will continue to grow and in fact I think will grow faster is for 2 reasons. First Flamingo Grossing will have 5,000 hotel and timeshare rooms. It also opens up all that land for Orange Lake has to build on and give them direct access to WDW. Disney will also continue to spend another billion or more into AK, besides what is currently being worked on, they will expand in that park new Asia, very funny that they left area for their next AK expansion. Disney will draw over 70 million customers, at least as counted for attendance, in 2021. the total number of hotel rooms on property either owned or leased or timeshares will be over 50,000 by 2025. Universal may or may not by then have the 10,000 rooms they have been talking about but they will also be owned by the partnership with Lowes Hotels and not completely owned and operated like most of Disney's. They will be more like the leased hotels. In any case Orlando and the surrounding area will be the big winner with the new jobs and tax money.

I completely agree AK is a big target for expansion. I would also hope and assume DHS has to get some big work because AK and DHS are pretty neck and neck right now when it comes to attendance. Disney will always continue to grow its just when where and how. I'm also sure besides leased hotels disney will continue to invest in DVC as that continues to sell.

 

[seascapemvy]

I completely agree AK is a big target for expansion. I would also hope and assume DHS has to get some big work because AK and DHS are pretty neck and neck right now when it comes to attendance. Disney will always continue to grow its just when where and how. I'm also sure besides leased hotels disney will continue to invest in DVC as that continues to sell.

I know the DVCs are doing very well. I love my 350 points. I also own a few points at Wyndham, because I live in the northeast and want a long weekend vacation in February.

Anyway back to the expansion issues. AK is a given and we seem to agree on it. DHS also needs an expansion and redo. However it can't expand too much and that is why Epcot and DHS have to be looked at together. MK is the north, Epcot and DHS are the center and AK is the south. Epcot has to be expanded so it can have a capacity of over 25 million. DHS should be expanded to have a capacity of over 15 million but due to its size I don't see how it could be more than that. AK has tons of land and should have the largest capacity somewhere up to 35 million. It is so much larges than the other parks and if you look at the size of Pandora and with the rumors of moving the service road and making it even larger and the land near Asia it is doable. These changes would bring the capacity for WDW to 25 million in the north, 40 million in the center and 35 million in the south. That would allow for the 5th gate to be an Orlando Adventure Land to be built next to the MK.

 

[rteetz]

I know the DVCs are doing very well. I love my 350 points. I also own a few points at Wyndham, because I live in the northeast and want a long weekend vacation in February. Anyway back to the expansion issues. AK is a given and we seem to agree on it. DHS also needs an expansion and redo. However it can't expand too much and that is why Epcot and DHS have to be looked at together. MK is the north, Epcot and DHS are the center and AK is the south. Epcot has to be expanded so it can have a capacity of over 25 million. DHS should be expanded to have a capacity of over 15 million but due to its size I don't see how it could be more than that. AK has tons of land and should have the largest capacity somewhere up to 35 million. It is so much larges than the other parks and if you look at the size of Pandora and with the rumors of moving the service road and making it even larger and the land near Asia it is doable. These changes would bring the capacity for WDW to 25 million in the north, 40 million in the center and 35 million in the south. That would allow for the 5th gate to be an Orlando Adventure Land to be built next to the MK.

I agree the only thing I hope for is a better name than Orlando adventure land no offense but that sounds like something out of a cartoon episode. As for DHS they have plenty of land if they push the parking lots back and move the road entrance over. This would be a prime location for something to take over streets of America area, backlot tour, stunt show. I can't see it being difficult to move that entrance road over just build the new one first than move traffic into that close the other one and expand. AK is already the largest park and it has the most room to grow even more.

 

[seascapemvy]

I'm also sure besides leased hotels disney will continue to invest in DVC as that continues to sell.

Now for the DVCs which people either love or hate. I expect over the next 28 years that beside the 1000 to 1500 timeshares in Flamingo Crossing that Disney will continue to build deluxe DVC resorts on the main property. I expect one near the Ft. Wilderness Camp grounds. A second between the TTC and a third to the west of MK. On the southern side since so may people love AKL I think they will build a major addition, doubling what they have and have a new termination date on AKL2. I could also see the Flamingo Crossing timeshares being a moderate type unit with less exchange rights and then another moderate timeshare resort on the main property. They will keep building DVCs until 2042. Then starting in 2042 they can rebuild and start selling them all over again.

 

[rteetz]

Now for the DVCs which people either love or hate. I expect over the next 28 years that beside the 1000 to 1500 timeshares in Flamingo Crossing that Disney will continue to build deluxe DVC resorts on the main property. I expect one near the Ft. Wilderness Camp grounds. A second between the TTC and a third to the west of MK. On the southern side since so may people love AKL I think they will build a major addition, doubling what they have and have a new termination date on AKL2. I could also see the Flamingo Crossing timeshares being a moderate type unit with less exchange rights and then another moderate timeshare resort on the main property. They will keep building DVCs until 2042. Then starting in 2042 they can rebuild and start selling them all over again.

The ft wilderness or river country DVC has been rumored for a very long time now and once Poly is done I think thats where they will go next. Those other two MK DVC properties you mention I'm not so sure about. As the common disney fan knows disney loves theming and if you put a DVC on the other side of TTC your looking to be very close to WL, that one may work but unlikely. Know that one west of MK I don't see happening because in order to be on the monorail line it would be right next to GF and that is disneys high class hotel don't see that happening. And we also all know disney isn't expanding the monorail anytime soon. One thing I think may very well happen after ft wilderness DVC is another Epcot or DHS DVC maybe even a resort on the Epcot monorail line. There is plenty of space for a Epcot DVC on world drive.