Talk me into/out of buying RIV direct...

[DonMacGregor]

Since we are looking at getting into RIV for direct benefits and an Epcot resort after 2042 I'm interested in what happens to the price of resale RIV once it sells out direct.

Will it go up in price despite the restrictions because it will be the only Epcot area resort with a long shelf-life left? Or will resale prices stay low/go down further and set up a ROFR dream for Disney? They would be able to buy contracts back, remove resale restrictions, then sell them for full price again...

It will go up in price when it sells out for the singular reason that DVC wants to dissuade people from buying sold-out resorts direct, even if they have the points. Once a resort "sells out", DVC focuses on whatever other resort(s) are on direct sale.

 

[Anthony Vito]

For the original poster, while it's not enough to make up the difference in prices, I'm pretty sure with DVC direct benefits you still get a discount on the top tier annual pass. From a quick google search, it looks like it's $150 off. So if you're going 2-3 times a year and looking at the AP anyway (but without the blackouts because you're going Christmas), and if you go direct, it's at least some savings.

 

[DonMacGregor]

For the original poster, while it's not enough to make up the difference in prices, I'm pretty sure with DVC direct benefits you still get a discount on the top tier annual pass. From a quick google search, it looks like it's $150 off. So if you're going 2-3 times a year and looking at the AP anyway (but without the blackouts because you're going Christmas), and if you go direct, it's at least some savings.

We don’t get a discount on the top tier Incredi-Pass, but we are allowed to purchase the Sorcerer Pass which is otherwise only available to Florida residents.

The Sorcerer Pass does has a handful of blockout dates at Thanksgiving, Christmas and Easter, but it is $450 cheaper ($999 versus $1,449).

 

[Jwaire]

We used to get a discount on the Platinum pass. At one point, we got a 25% discount on the Platinum Plus pass too and we could purchase a 7 day park hopper for the price of a 5 day park hopper.

 

[Sandisw]

We don’t get a discount on the top tier Incredi-Pass, but we are allowed to purchase the Sorcerer Pass which is otherwise only available to Florida residents.

The Sorcerer Pass does has a handful of blockout dates at Thanksgiving, Christmas and Easter, but it is $450 cheaper ($999 versus $1,449).

Easter is not blocked out. It is only Thanksgiving and Xmas.

 

[intamin]

Since we are looking at getting into RIV for direct benefits and an Epcot resort after 2042 I'm interested in what happens to the price of resale RIV once it sells out direct.

Will it go up in price despite the restrictions because it will be the only Epcot area resort with a long shelf-life left? Or will resale prices stay low/go down further and set up a ROFR dream for Disney? They would be able to buy contracts back, remove resale restrictions, then sell them for full price again...

I think Disney is going to ROFR the hell out of them tbh. They just aren’t right now because it’s still actively selling but in a few years I don’t see Disney letting them pass in the low 100s. I think maybe 130-140s is where Disney will start letting them go. What I think might be interesting is what the price point Disney ends up selling them back at. Will the resale restrictions mean they put Riviera on sale with random incentives more frequently after selling out? Because IDK, I don’t see many people buying RIV at like 275 direct without incentives compared to a VGF or something but because they are ROFRing these contracts for less they’ll likely be able to put incentives on it and still have enough wiggle room and attract more buyers.

 

[BuzzLightyr]

How does the resale restrictions work with Rivera ROFR? if DVD buys back Rivera contracts, can they paper away the resale restriction and just sell them direct? If so - i can see DVD taking contracts at $125 and reselling $225 or so. The key part is probably the difference DVD can make - and what else they are focusing on selling. Keeping Poly2 under wraps likely helps RIV sales if you want to buy something direct, that isn't a campsite at WDW.

The other question is would OKW direct work as a RIV substitute? Cost per point is much lower, but you need to wait until 7 months prior to book. No resale restrictions, long contract. The question is how in demand are the dates you are looking to book and could you make 7 months work. RIV points are expensive - and that's not going to change (# of units dedicated to DVC vs. points sold/available for sale). The high price points should help with availability as those who bought into RIV may want to book elsewhere to get more space for the same number of points. At non-peak times, you can probably do a BWV pool/garden view too at much fewer points. With planning OKW direct could be used as "directSAP" and should hold value better than RIV direct if you need to sell.

 

[Tatebeck]

I'm pretty sure they can wash away the restriction. If they resell those points they would be purchasing direct from disney after all

Also I wouldn't count on 7 month availability at RIV long term. As time goes on there will be more and more resale owners who can ONLY use their point there

 

[Sandisw]

I think Disney is going to ROFR the hell out of them tbh. They just aren’t right now because it’s still actively selling but in a few years I don’t see Disney letting them pass in the low 100s. I think maybe 130-140s is where Disney will start letting them go. What I think might be interesting is what the price point Disney ends up selling them back at. Will the resale restrictions mean they put Riviera on sale with random incentives more frequently after selling out? Because IDK, I don’t see many people buying RIV at like 275 direct without incentives compared to a VGF or something but because they are ROFRing these contracts for less they’ll likely be able to put incentives on it and still have enough wiggle room and attract more buyers.

Honestly, I don’t see it. The more than RoFR, the more the price rises because people want to get past RoFR.

And, selling sold out resorts is not their priority. While they do sell them, and occasionally have specials…like the current OKW…the goal is and always will be the new resorts.

 

[Sandisw]

How does the resale restrictions work with Rivera ROFR? if DVD buys back Rivera contracts, can they paper away the resale restriction and just sell them direct? If so - i can see DVD taking contracts at $125 and reselling $225 or so. The key part is probably the difference DVD can make - and what else they are focusing on selling. Keeping Poly2 under wraps likely helps RIV sales if you want to buy something direct, that isn't a campsite at WDW.

The other question is would OKW direct work as a RIV substitute? Cost per point is much lower, but you need to wait until 7 months prior to book. No resale restrictions, long contract. The question is how in demand are the dates you are looking to book and could you make 7 months work. RIV points are expensive - and that's not going to change (# of units dedicated to DVC vs. points sold/available for sale). The high price points should help with availability as those who bought into RIV may want to book elsewhere to get more space for the same number of points. At non-peak times, you can probably do a BWV pool/garden view too at much fewer points. With planning OKW direct could be used as "directSAP" and should hold value better than RIV direct if you need to sell.

The POS states that resale restrictions do not apply to DVD. Once points are taken back, they are now considered developer points again.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Honestly, I don’t see it. The more than RoFR, the more the price rises because people want to get past RoFR.

And, selling sold out resorts is not their priority. While they do sell them, and occasionally have specials…like the current OKW…the goal is and always will be the new resorts.

Unless they build a 5th gate… where are all these people at new resorts supposed to go?

I’m still wondering how the monorail is going to be with the new Poly tower….

 

[Sandisw]

Unless they build a 5th gate… where are all these people at new resorts supposed to go?

I’m still wondering how the monorail is going to be with the new Poly tower….

They were talking about RoFR. Not sure how buying contracts at a sold out resort vs at new ones has to do with transportation?

 

[Tatebeck]

I think they'll rofr any time they see super cheap contracts or when they have standing requests via the add on tool. If it's an instant sale or a quick doubling of their money, why not. Instant 100% return? Yes please

 

[Sandisw]

I think they'll rofr any time they see super cheap contracts or when they have standing requests via the add on tool. If it's an instant sale or a quick doubling of their money, why not. Instant 100% return? Yes please

Not saying they will never take a contract but I do not see it becoming something that they do in mass after it’s sold out.

I think it will be similar to what has always happened.

 

[AstroBlasters]

They were talking about RoFR. Not sure how buying contracts at a sold out resort vs at new ones has to do with transportation?

You said that DVC is focused on selling new resorts (which I agree with)… new resorts means more total room capacity…. more room capacity puts a strain on the current parks and transportation capacity…..

 

[Tatebeck]

Not saying they will never take a contract but I do not see it becoming something that they do in mass after it’s sold out.

I think it will be similar to what has always happened.

Maybe. I figure they will RoFR a bit more on the restricted resorts because they can wash the points clean for direct buyers. They have more incentive for things like the restricted resorts where they can wash points restrictions or for ones like OKW where they can extend the contract length without costing them anything extra up front. Is that probably why they have enough OKW to run a special?

The ones with restrictions to the original 14 resorts I would bet will have less rofr going forward than the resorts with easy contract extensions/point restriction washing that instantly raises the "value" of those points more

 

[Sandisw]

You said that DVC is focused on selling new resorts (which I agree with)… new resorts means more total room capacity…. more room capacity puts a strain on the current parks and transportation capacity…..

Well, some of the new resorts will end up replacements of current resorts.

Plus, if they are building a 5th gate, then I think they’d want expanded resorts.

Unless they stop selling DVC, I do t see a model in which they want to repurpose current resorts and sell contracts with fewer and fewer years on them.

We are 18 years away from BCV and BWV to be gone. They are going to want to redo those which means they will have no need for taking lots of RIV, or CFW contracts back when they will have lots of other things to sell.

 

[Tatebeck]

As we get closer to 2042 could they rofr BWV/BCV contracts and extend them to resell direct? Like they are doing with OKW? Or would they have to offer the extension to everyone like they did with OKW first?

 

[Sandisw]

Maybe. I figure they will RoFR a bit more on the restricted resorts because they can wash the points clean for direct buyers. They have more incentive for things like the restricted resorts where they can wash points restrictions or for ones like OKW where they can extend the contract length without costing them anything extra up front. Is that probably why they have enough OKW to run a special?

The ones with restrictions to the original 14 resorts I would bet will have less rofr going forward than the resorts with easy contract extensions/point restriction washing that instantly raises the "value" of those points more

It will really depend but as I said, as soon as they being doing a lot of RoFR, the price rises so those deals are no longer deals.

We dont know yes how many points they have for OKW…it may also be because the current CFW numbers are not that strong?

If you look at how things play out, the demand for sold out resorts is not strong and I don’t see RIV, or any future restricted resort, being different.

I guess we will have to see what transpires in the next 10 years. Plus, if they move to this trust model, whib IMO, is likely, that may put a whole different spin on their strategy.

 

[Sandisw]

As we get closer to 2042 could they rofr BWV/BCV contracts and extend them to resell direct? Like they are doing with OKW? Or would they have to offer the extension to everyone like they did with OKW first?

No. The ground lease for OKW was extended to 2057, which means all contracts were extended.

The other 2042 resorts have not had that happen…and I don’t think it will…so DVD can’t sell anything at those places without legally changing the ground lease for those resorts.