I normally don't weigh in heavily on this type of topic except for Norwalk type viruses and prevantative measures come in...this one is a bit different...
Whether this flu will be the next pandemic is yet to be seen...if you are nervous go to the CDC's web site or better still the WHO's website and of course the health website of your specific country as well...for us Canadian folks google health canada and the first hit should be what you are looking for..
All the speculation in the world - means nothing...this virus could die tomorrow or could mutate into the last great pandenmic..
There are a couple of very simple reasons why the folks in the "know" are both panicking and also being cautious at the same time...
First is simply the world is a small place these days..the infections are now in New Zealand..in the countries of the world that have poorer health care as soon as it hits their shores - and it will -depending on that countries readiness it could be devastating or a whimper...NO ONE KNOWS. It is therefore prudent to raise the level to 4 and perhaps higher in the next few days or weeks...lets face it how longs does it actually take to circle the globe by plane?..in reality that is the minimum time for a pandemic to erupt.
...and, for right now, this has nothing to do with the number of cases, but on the ability of the virus to do its work, before a virus inhibitor can be brought to the masses to stop the little guy..which brings me to the second point..
A virus is the simplest machine in the world..it barely rates as alive..basically all it does in the simpler forms is reproduce itself...unfortunately for us complex beings that is where the problem starts .. and in the more deadly viruses, ends..as it reproduces - it destroys, in making perfect little copies of itself..
we stop or kill viruses by interfering with that process and in turn the virus responds by trying to mutate to stop that prevention or interference..and thus the cycle goes on and on..this is a DRASTIC oversimplification of the process, but serves to show why the flu shot sorta works the next year..The only problem is we are always reacting to what already happened and the virus is already trying to figure out how to overcome the problem...so as the WHO and others work frantically to make an antibody for this little pest, they are already behind..now the only thing that makes the WHO and all counties quiver is when the little virus spontaneoulsy mutuates into something unknown and becomes more contagious and infectious ( different creatures) then before - or worse when it jumps species - or hides in a species the resurfaces...
My point is..the viruses main goal in its "life" if you can call it that is to survive - any way it can..and these little pests are really good at that..a benefit from only having one thing to "think" of...
Now all of this, as I said is a very very drastic oversimplification of how these guys work..google viruses and read for yourself..they really are a true miracle..just not a nice one...