#### doconeill

##### Fastpass Jedi Master
One thing we cannot forget, only so many (say, 18,000) people of any description (standby, regular fastpass, FP+) can ride Toy Story Mania on any given day from park open to ride shutdown at the end of the day. If some people ride it more than once then the number of different people who can ride it on a given day becomes less.
Which is what I was getting at in my earlier post.

It can be argued that those riding TSM more than once are likely doing so via Fastpass, at least once. Not all, but probably the majority. Some are very likely to be doing it using multiple Fastpasses.

Now, if you can only get one FP+, what happens? Warning...assumptions ahead, but based on observation and logic!!! (No, Doc, don't bring logic into this!!!)

Assumption 1: Regardless if you can get more FP+ in the park, you can still only get one per attraction.

Assumption 2: Those riding TSM with FP/FP+ will not be required to have to choose a FP+ for TSM or something else due to number of FP+ limitations or potential tiering of attractions.

Let's give names to different classes of TSM riders. And see if I can pull together a coherent argument despite interruptions.

The "duplicates". They get multiple FPs through the day for TSM, and ride 2+ times via FP, and potentially via standby as well, although if they do I expect it isn't more than once.

The "fast-and-slows". They ride twice - once standby, once FP.

The "one-and-dones". They only ride once, either standby or FP, but are at least FP-savvy.

The "don't-get-its", those who don't understand FP, and probably still won't understand FP+.

Now, the "fast-and-slows" aren't likely to change at all, since the changes don't affect them as far as this argument goes (they may need to make a choice and give up their TSM FP+ for something else, but lets assume they don't need to make that choice). So we can ignore them.

The "don't-get-its" also aren't likely to change. They are still a constant in the standby lines with their glares.

The duplicates are definitely affected, as they now can't get more than one FP. So what do they do? They can still ride multiple times, but they have to do it via standby. Some will, but I have a feeling most likely only do so because of FP, and won't. So while a few might go standby and increase the line there, others won't. So less FP usage, with a lesser increase in standby usage. This alone would be a standby win as standby users will take the missing FP slots. Advantage: Standby.

Now the "one-and-dones" are also affected. Those that end up in the standby line simply because there are no FPs available after noon, now have the potential to get a FP+ given up by the former duplicates. They likely will fill all those slots again - but then they are taking themselves out of the standby line on a 1-for-1 basis. So although the FP+ line goes back to before, the standby line decreases by the same degree, so it is shorter. Advantage: Standby.

Now of course there could be outliers - former one-and-dones that become opportunistic fast-and-slows now that a FP+ is dangled in front of them, but in the same token some duplicates and fast-and-slows may opt all the way down to one-and-dones. And for each former duplicate that used to ride 3+ times and now drops to 1, there are that many more slots opened for others.

That's why I'm actually seeing this as a potential win for the standby line.

Where this might not work as well where Assumption 2 breaks down more easily, like at MK, where there is a higher percentage of top-tier attractions. If you only have 3 FP+, and have to choose between the 3 (soon to be 4) mountains, Peter Pan, etc. Then you'll have guests that may be forced into a fifth category, "I'd FP+ it but I'm out and forced to ride standby", and this could see an increase in the standby line. This was worse when it seemed you'd only be able to get one top-tier FP+ - but this could also be a reason why they changed it.

#### SharonS

##### Mouseketeer
The whole concept of FP vs. FP+ is befuddling at best.

I thought the main idea of FP was to keep the guests out of the lines, and into the shops and restaurants. The longer you're in the lines, the less money you spend.

Someone mentioned the interactive queues as a precursor to FP+ and longer lines. From a purely money standpoint, that does not make sense. You spend millions of dollars updating the queues with no monetary return of investment (although you will have better customer satisfaction).

To me, this sounds like a money-losing prospect for Disney. However, Disney never does anything purposely to lose money. They have this all figured out.

I'm a little surprised they have never incorporated money making opportunities within the queue. At some parks, I've seen pop machines within the queue, especially at the hottest portions of outdoor lines. However that may be impossible within WDW's queues.
Perhaps, Disney realized that by keeping people out of lines was also resulting in people spending less time in their parks. If someone used FP effectively, they could see everything at Disney and have extr time to perhaps visit Universal, Seaworld, or just go back to their resort. Not everyone stays on property, so people leaving sooner could also result in lost revenue from food

#### Rileygirl

##### DIS Veteran
Which is what I was getting at in my earlier post.

It can be argued that those riding TSM more than once are likely doing so via Fastpass, at least once. Not all, but probably the majority. Some are very likely to be doing it using multiple Fastpasses.

Now, if you can only get one FP+, what happens? Warning...assumptions ahead, but based on observation and logic!!! (No, Doc, don't bring logic into this!!!)

Assumption 1: Regardless if you can get more FP+ in the park, you can still only get one per attraction.

Assumption 2: Those riding TSM with FP/FP+ will not be required to have to choose a FP+ for TSM or something else due to number of FP+ limitations or potential tiering of attractions.

Let's give names to different classes of TSM riders. And see if I can pull together a coherent argument despite interruptions.

The "duplicates". They get multiple FPs through the day for TSM, and ride 2+ times via FP, and potentially via standby as well, although if they do I expect it isn't more than once.

The "fast-and-slows". They ride twice - once standby, once FP.

The "one-and-dones". They only ride once, either standby or FP, but are at least FP-savvy.

The "don't-get-its", those who don't understand FP, and probably still won't understand FP+.

Now, the "fast-and-slows" aren't likely to change at all, since the changes don't affect them as far as this argument goes (they may need to make a choice and give up their TSM FP+ for something else, but lets assume they don't need to make that choice). So we can ignore them.

The "don't-get-its" also aren't likely to change. They are still a constant in the standby lines with their glares.

The duplicates are definitely affected, as they now can't get more than one FP. So what do they do? They can still ride multiple times, but they have to do it via standby. Some will, but I have a feeling most likely only do so because of FP, and won't. So while a few might go standby and increase the line there, others won't. So less FP usage, with a lesser increase in standby usage. This alone would be a standby win as standby users will take the missing FP slots. Advantage: Standby.

Now the "one-and-dones" are also affected. Those that end up in the standby line simply because there are no FPs available after noon, now have the potential to get a FP+ given up by the former duplicates. They likely will fill all those slots again - but then they are taking themselves out of the standby line on a 1-for-1 basis. So although the FP+ line goes back to before, the standby line decreases by the same degree, so it is shorter. Advantage: Standby.

Now of course there could be outliers - former one-and-dones that become opportunistic fast-and-slows now that a FP+ is dangled in front of them, but in the same token some duplicates and fast-and-slows may opt all the way down to one-and-dones. And for each former duplicate that used to ride 3+ times and now drops to 1, there are that many more slots opened for others.

That's why I'm actually seeing this as a potential win for the standby line.

Where this might not work as well where Assumption 2 breaks down more easily, like at MK, where there is a higher percentage of top-tier attractions. If you only have 3 FP+, and have to choose between the 3 (soon to be 4) mountains, Peter Pan, etc. Then you'll have guests that may be forced into a fifth category, "I'd FP+ it but I'm out and forced to ride standby", and this could see an increase in the standby line. This was worse when it seemed you'd only be able to get one top-tier FP+ - but this could also be a reason why they changed it.
Wow

Nice. And a totally different perspective on the effect of standby lines with this new system. Excellent. Thanks!

• #### rastuso

##### DIS Veteran
It still boils down to basic math. the 3 mountains all serve around 1500 riders an hour, I believe, and 80% goes to FP. For a 12 hour day, they can serve 43200 folks, which is about the average attendance. So, each person will get ONE FP+ for the mountains. We never go to MK and not ride all the mountains at least once, plus everything else.

And the clueless folks kidnapped by Disney at the airport will have their FP+s prescheduled for them, as long as they tell Disney what parks they are going to each day. And Disney may even give them a park itenerary, with FP+s already picked if they don't preschedule. So, the clueless who used to not use FP at all, WILL use it. The clueless are ABSOLUTELY Disney's favorite guests. They aren't even thinking about going to Universal, isn't that in Tampa?

There is no doubt that anyone who was a regular visitor to WDW, and knew how to maximize FP usage, are going to have a much lesser experience. And FP enforcement already did that. Like was said above, yes people are still going to Disney, but how many of those are doing their first post FP enforcement trip, and going home saying "that trip lost a lot of magic due to the FP changes". And those folks will wait longer to return. WDW is off limits to my family until all the FP+ stuff is worked out. Without a known start date, I'm not risking it.

And don't even think about the other three WDW parks. THey simply don't have the big rides for the FP+ system. I could see rollout in them not happening for quite a while. MGM will become a nightmare. But, you'll have plenty of opportunity to see Motors again!!!

Jason

#### doconeill

##### Fastpass Jedi Master
And the clueless folks kidnapped by Disney at the airport will have their FP+s prescheduled for them, as long as they tell Disney what parks they are going to each day. And Disney may even give them a park itenerary, with FP+s already picked if they don't preschedule. So, the clueless who used to not use FP at all, WILL use it. The clueless are ABSOLUTELY Disney's favorite guests. They aren't even thinking about going to Universal, isn't that in Tampa?
Just an FYI, I haven't seen any indication that they plan to "kidnap" people at the airport and brainwash them. During early testing, they talked to people waiting for Magical Express, and asked them to test, and scheduled for them. As far as I know, it hasn't been done again and there aren't plans for it. It's possible - it could provide a good opportunity to "train" guests on FP+ - but that might be better done at the resorts.

Besides, these people are already captive. They don't have independent transportation to get off property without hiring a cab or renting one from the car care center/S&D. And if they were planning that, they probably do have a clue and aren't likely to change that plan for a few advanced FP+s.

#### awilliams4

##### DIS Veteran
DVC Gold
Losing the benefits that the current FP system provides is worth "throwing a fit about" (although I maintain that people here are mostly just expressing concerns for the future, not throwing a fit). Not just because something is changing, but because it's not changing for the better.
It is not changing for the better for only certain types of visitors. Not everyone. This is great for us. We don't like to be forced to get up 'early early early' as a previous poster suggested so that we can get on say RRC. We have missed it a couple of years straight now since we get to HS around 3:00 to 4:00 p.m.

I wouldn't be suprised if Disney is also doing FP+ to even the playing field. How much does it cost Disney for someone that knows the system and rides 50 rides a day from rope drop to park closing versus those once in a lifetime visitors that figure out FP by 3:00 in the afternoon only to find out they don't get to ride much at all and just complain to Guest Services.

FP+ has many benefits, including not requiring me to run back and forth across the parks all the time.

Wow, you mean I can get up whenever I want while on vacation and not have to rush rush rush around and run back and forth to the parks and I still get to ride Soarin and TSM with little to no wait, yeah, that is making it worse for everyone.

#### awilliams4

##### DIS Veteran
DVC Gold
Not being able to use paper fast passes with FP+ doesn't necessarily foreclose being able to get additional electronic fast passes. We just don't know. I think there might be a way or park hoppers are at a big disadvantage. But who knows.
It has pretty much been confirmed that after FP+ is fully implemented regular FP will go away by several in the know and also Disney Blogs have had descriptions of FP+ that suggest this as well.

• #### Samdari

##### Mouseketeer
We need to remember that even if only the resort guests can prebook 60 days out, Disney needs to be able to guarentee 3 fp for every single guest that goes through the turnstile if needed.
You mean like how they guarantee people they sell the dining plan to the ability to book ADRs? Wait, what, they don't do that?

That is my biggest fear with FP+ - that booking FP+ attractions will become like ADR's - have to book at exactly 60 days out to get the best attractions, and like ADR's once they are gone they are gone. Thus, your only change to ride TSMM will be to book 60 days out at 6am.

#### mom2rtk

##### Invented the term "Characterpalooza"
You mean like how they guarantee people they sell the dining plan to the ability to book ADRs? Wait, what, they don't do that?

#### MikeandReneePlus5

##### DIS Veteran
Which is what I was getting at in my earlier post.

It can be argued that those riding TSM more than once are likely doing so via Fastpass, at least once. Not all, but probably the majority. Some are very likely to be doing it using multiple Fastpasses.

Now, if you can only get one FP+, what happens? Warning...assumptions ahead, but based on observation and logic!!! (No, Doc, don't bring logic into this!!!)

Assumption 1: Regardless if you can get more FP+ in the park, you can still only get one per attraction.

Assumption 2: Those riding TSM with FP/FP+ will not be required to have to choose a FP+ for TSM or something else due to number of FP+ limitations or potential tiering of attractions.

Let's give names to different classes of TSM riders. And see if I can pull together a coherent argument despite interruptions.

The "duplicates". They get multiple FPs through the day for TSM, and ride 2+ times via FP, and potentially via standby as well, although if they do I expect it isn't more than once.

The "fast-and-slows". They ride twice - once standby, once FP.

The "one-and-dones". They only ride once, either standby or FP, but are at least FP-savvy.

The "don't-get-its", those who don't understand FP, and probably still won't understand FP+.

Now, the "fast-and-slows" aren't likely to change at all, since the changes don't affect them as far as this argument goes (they may need to make a choice and give up their TSM FP+ for something else, but lets assume they don't need to make that choice). So we can ignore them.

The "don't-get-its" also aren't likely to change. They are still a constant in the standby lines with their glares.

The duplicates are definitely affected, as they now can't get more than one FP. So what do they do? They can still ride multiple times, but they have to do it via standby. Some will, but I have a feeling most likely only do so because of FP, and won't. So while a few might go standby and increase the line there, others won't. So less FP usage, with a lesser increase in standby usage. This alone would be a standby win as standby users will take the missing FP slots. Advantage: Standby.

Now the "one-and-dones" are also affected. Those that end up in the standby line simply because there are no FPs available after noon, now have the potential to get a FP+ given up by the former duplicates. They likely will fill all those slots again - but then they are taking themselves out of the standby line on a 1-for-1 basis. So although the FP+ line goes back to before, the standby line decreases by the same degree, so it is shorter. Advantage: Standby.

Now of course there could be outliers - former one-and-dones that become opportunistic fast-and-slows now that a FP+ is dangled in front of them, but in the same token some duplicates and fast-and-slows may opt all the way down to one-and-dones. And for each former duplicate that used to ride 3+ times and now drops to 1, there are that many more slots opened for others.

That's why I'm actually seeing this as a potential win for the standby line.

Where this might not work as well where Assumption 2 breaks down more easily, like at MK, where there is a higher percentage of top-tier attractions. If you only have 3 FP+, and have to choose between the 3 (soon to be 4) mountains, Peter Pan, etc. Then you'll have guests that may be forced into a fifth category, "I'd FP+ it but I'm out and forced to ride standby", and this could see an increase in the standby line. This was worse when it seemed you'd only be able to get one top-tier FP+ - but this could also be a reason why they changed it.
So, yeah, hard core types will be effected and every one else will probably benefit.

Hence all the angst in any Disney forum.

#### doconeill

##### Fastpass Jedi Master
Not being able to use paper fast passes with FP+ doesn't necessarily foreclose being able to get additional electronic fast passes. We just don't know. I think there might be a way or park hoppers are at a big disadvantage. But who knows.
It has pretty much been confirmed that after FP+ is fully implemented regular FP will go away by several in the know and also Disney Blogs have had descriptions of FP+ that suggest this as well.
I think what DavidNYC is getting at is if there will be additional FP+s available same-day, similar to the current system, which is still an unknown, but the data seems to be against it right now. If they are made available, how they will be obtained is also unknown.

We'll find out in about a week.

• #### mom2rtk

##### Invented the term "Characterpalooza"
We'll find out in about a week.
Well..... we'll find out in about a week how they're handling it in this test.

#### doconeill

##### Fastpass Jedi Master
Well..... we'll find out in about a week how they're handling it in this test.
Well, yes...but hopefully this is the first "real world" test, which it sounds like.

#### mom2rtk

##### Invented the term "Characterpalooza"
Well, yes...but hopefully this is the first "real world" test, which it sounds like.
It will definitely be interesting to see how they handle it. But until they have a full rollout we just won't know this piece of it. Even if they allow additional same day FPs for test participants, there would likely be a lot more available just because so few overall guests will be involved in that system. To know how this will function in the real world, it would need the full impact of everyone participating before one could make valid assumptions.

I can't imagine an important test of the system right now NOT allowing additional same day FPs. I doubt most folks participating in the test would give them the positive feedback they want to see at this point if they got closed out of additional FPs while the rest of the park crowd continued to collect all they could.

#### doconeill

##### Fastpass Jedi Master
It will definitely be interesting to see how they handle it. But until they have a full rollout we just won't know this piece of it. Even if they allow additional same day FPs for test participants, there would likely be a lot more available just because so few overall guests will be involved in that system. To know how this will function in the real world, it would need the full impact of everyone participating before one could make valid assumptions.

I can't imagine an important test of the system right now NOT allowing additional same day FPs. I doubt most folks participating in the test would give them the positive feedback they want to see at this point if they got closed out of additional FPs while the rest of the park crowd continued to collect all they could.
But, as I've argued before, positive (or negative) feedback in a test where they aren't restricting it as they would in the real world becomes invalid.

Given that this test is going to be with MagicBands, which currently don't work with regular FP kiosks, the options I can think of are:

(presumption - if same-day FP+ is available, same restrictions still apply - no duplicates, not within X minutes of each other)

- They only get a MagicBand. They can only use the new system. If they get additional FP+, this is a good (not great) indicator that such would be available to all, subject to availability. If they don't, this is almost certainly an indication that that is it.

- They get a MagicBand AND a regular ticket or Recovery Fastpass card. They can get FPs as normal, independent of FP+, without restrictions on duplicates, etc. This may indicate that they intend for same day FP+ but don't have the mechanism in place for it yet. But it could also indicate that are not yet ready for the negative feedback.

- They get a MagicBand AND a regular ticket or Recovery Fastpass card, but they are tied together in such a way that restrictions around the FP+ selections apply. This is a GREAT indication that they intend for same-day FP+, but they don't have the mechanism in place for it yet. However, I think the odds of this are pretty low given how much trouble Disney seems to be having making any of this link together

In any case, I think the upcoming test will give us a better idea - perhaps only slightly - of what is to come.

#### rastuso

##### DIS Veteran
EXACTLY!

These tests are for Disney to get feedback, AND to get people to go home and say how awesome FP+ was. Gotta polish that turd A LOT!

This will most definitely be like ADRs. My numbers above showed how few Mountain FPs there are to go around.

BUT, it's much worse, because you never show up to go to Cinderella's Royal Table with your 60 day old reservation to find it's closed all day because it's raining.

Jason

#### MagicallyDelicious

##### Mouseketeer
I know this probably wouldn't be very popular, but is it possible that you will be able to pre-book your three FP on the new system, and be given a certain number of free passes per day, depending on your resort level, to be used at any time, for any ride?

I know there are not a lot of proponents for any sort of a tiered system, but if they're preloaded for you, based off of your resort, then it's an advantage, no matter how few you're given, since everyone will start off with three.

Just a thought...don't shoot the messenger. I'm just thinking out loud, because like others, I don't think three will be enough.

#### mom2rtk

##### Invented the term "Characterpalooza"
But, as I've argued before, positive (or negative) feedback in a test where they aren't restricting it as they would in the real world becomes invalid.
Well.....

I know that.

And YOU know that.

But there might be some marketing types in the ivory towers of Disney wanting to cover their collective hides a little bit longer.

Or it could just be that they don't intend this to be a full on test. It could just be an operational test to see if the bands function properly with their pre-loaded FP times.

#### doconeill

##### Fastpass Jedi Master
I know this probably wouldn't be very popular, but is it possible that you will be able to pre-book your three FP on the new system, and be given a certain number of free passes per day, depending on your resort level, to be used at any time, for any ride?

I know there are not a lot of proponents for any sort of a tiered system, but if they're preloaded for you, based off of your resort, then it's an advantage, no matter how few you're given, since everyone will start off with three.

Just a thought...don't shoot the messenger. I'm just thinking out loud, because like others, I don't think three will be enough.
Disney hasn't made any statement, indication, mumble, whatever that they are planning a tiered offering for resort guests. There is also the problem of capacity - as some people have run the numbers, and it appears that even limiting at 3 FP+ could make them extremely scarce for most of the top attractions...

#### MagicallyDelicious

##### Mouseketeer
Disney hasn't made any statement, indication, mumble, whatever that they are planning a tiered offering for resort guests. There is also the problem of capacity - as some people have run the numbers, and it appears that even limiting at 3 FP+ could make them extremely scarce for most of the top attractions...
I guess we just have to trust that they have something nifty up their sleeves. I can't imagine them going to all of this trouble, to infuriate gobs of people.