Super discouraged, what does it take to pass ROFR?

[LionKingCPA]

I think you just hit a run of bad luck. Keep submitting - you might even end up paying a little less. Disney has been buying back more in 2017 compared to previous years.

 

[Dean]

We've seen no indications DVD makes this personal or targets those they think will buy retail otherwise. They've always purposefully used ROFR to keep you guessing.

 

[Matty B13]

When we first started looking into DVC, we wanted VGF and contacted DVC for a direct purchase but got waitlisted. So after a little more research we found Disboards and researched resale purchases and made an offer on a resale contract, sent it to ROFR and the day before we passed ROFR our guide contacted us with the amount of points we needed. Told him I would a need a day to think about it and called him right after I got the call from the broker that we had just passed ROFR. So I don't think they really look at the names on the contacts in ROFR.

P.S. - Wish we had bought 25 direct when we had the chance........

 

[Tlmb615]

Just keep trying.

I am sure it will all work out. Good luck!

 

[JHank44]

I bought a DEC SSR that closed in Jan with 33% 2015 points, and all of 2016 points for $75. I found www.Fidelityresales.com to be the most reasonable in terms realistic prices (i.e. priced at close to fair market value so little negotiation needed but need to be on mailing list). Prices have gone up for sure but I do not think $85 is unreasonable.

I also own and BLT and have been following prices closely as want to add on. There was a noticeable shift in ROFR in the new fiscal year (Oct 1, 2016) where the ROFR rate went from ~5-15% to ~25-40%. I do not do the stats for SSR but it appears that there was a shift their as well. The net result is that Disney is taking more contracts which is raising resale prices and potentially forcing more people to buy direct.

One thing that is apparent in the data, UY matters a lot more than people realize. Disney's demand model has a preference for "on-the-run" (bond nomenclature if familiar) so they exercise ROFR at a lot higher rate on months that are upcoming - e.g. they will take Sep/Oct UY right now. Your best bet is to buy something that has just left "on-the-run" status like June UY. Also, it is better to buy a UY that has more point allocation (http://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-pr...ar-distribution-charts-updated-september-2015). All this said, if they have a waitlist for that UY, it will be taken.

 

[Wakey]

I don't know which 3 realtors you used....but $85/pt seems low to me....notwithstanding the other posters here that got really great deals a month or so ago. Keep in mind that these boards represent a small percentage of resale buyers. If you really, really want in at SSR, I suggest a different realtor that has their sellers asking higher prices. I had been thinking about selling a small contract to a friend and wanted to circumvent a realtor....contacted DVC....they sent me the required documents I would need to provide, along with 2 realtors that they recommend to handle the sale if I decide otherwise. These two realtors prices are much lower than three others that I monitor daily. Wonder why that is? Some sellers have no clue that they are sitting on gold.....they have life situations and just need to let their DVC go.....and DVC is happy if they list it low to scoop it up.

Seems high to me at 85. I got a loaded SSR with 2016 points banked (Feb use year) in Feb for $75 a point and it passed. OP has been very unlucky as overall ROFR rates are under 10% I believe.

 

[GoofyDisneyDaddy]

So sorry. But don't get discouraged. It's still worth it in the long run.

 

[1momof3boys3]

We've seen no indications DVD makes this personal or targets those they think will buy retail otherwise. They've always purposefully used ROFR to keep you guessing.

I think you're right. I have shown lots of interest in DVC, completed many phone interviews, requested many print materials and mine still passed ROFR. If it were personal I think they would have taken mine.

 

[dogsmom]

Excellent deal. Out of curiosity, were you already an owner? I'm wondering about Kathy's statement, whether or not they look at who the buyers are and if they've taken tours and all that. I picture the ROFR group having a database to work off of from the sales group, with interested parties on waiting lists for certain resorts. For a long time they were not ROFRing SSR.

To the OP.....I can't imagine how upsetting it is to have wasted so much time in limbo, waiting. I hope something works out for you soon. We recently purchased a larger BWV resale and my broker warned me that he would be surprised if Disney didn't take it. They didn't and I'm glad we bought when we did a few months ago.

Best of luck.

This was our first DVC purchase. And we had never done a tour. I was frankly shocked how quickly and smoothly everything went. I was even able able to get our points in time to book four nights in December.

 

[JHank44]

Just checked the OCC, YTD at Saratoga Springs, DVC has exercised ROFR on 297 contracts and passed on 798 contracts so they are exercising at a rate of ~27%. Last year, there were 436 exercised with 1124 waived for ~28% exercise rate. There isn't much difference at SSR on that front. Just doing straight up probabilities it is only 2% chance of being ROFR 3x in a row but you must be buying an in demand UY which change the odds.

 

[the_grinch]

Just checked the OCC, YTD at Saratoga Springs, DVC has exercised ROFR on 297 contracts and passed on 798 contracts so they are exercising at a rate of ~27%. Last year, there were 436 exercised with 1124 waived for ~28% exercise rate. There isn't much difference at SSR on that front. Just doing straight up probabilities it is only 2% chance of being ROFR 3x in a row but you must be buying an in demand UY which change the odds.

as i am new to all this i would be very interested in what OCC is and how you got to all that data about ROFR thanks for any information you can share

 

[Toreby]

as i am new to all this i would be very interested in what OCC is and how you got to all that data about ROFR thanks for any information you can share

Orange County Comptroller. All DVC purchases (FL based, not VGC, AUL or HH) is listed on their website via a search function.

 

[Wakey]

Just checked the OCC, YTD at Saratoga Springs, DVC has exercised ROFR on 297 contracts and passed on 798 contracts so they are exercising at a rate of ~27%. Last year, there were 436 exercised with 1124 waived for ~28% exercise rate. There isn't much difference at SSR on that front. Just doing straight up probabilities it is only 2% chance of being ROFR 3x in a row but you must be buying an in demand UY which change the odds.

How do you calculate ROFR from OOC? DVC Resale Market say ROFR on their contracts is 7.5% this year. Last month they sold 52 SSR contracts and one was taken. 28% would seem to be much higher than anything I've seen elsewhere?

 

[Family2Disney]

We just passed ROFR after 18 days for SSR 150 pts at $86pp. The contract has 145 pts banked from 2016, 94 for 2017 and full 150 for 2018. UY is August. I can't offer any ideas of what causes Disney to buy back some and not others but keep trying. We bought through The Timeshare Store. Good luck!

 

[qv09vvp]

will post details later...but just got back on the horse, bid again & offer was accepted!! (sorry , we are from texas....horse fits better than bicycle)

so 2% chance of getting ROFR 3 times in a row... that means the chances of getting ROFR 4 times in a row is astronomical.....if it happens...i'm buying a lottery ticket AND may head to Vegas instead of Disney next time. Wish us luck!!!!

 

[minorthr]

will post details later...but just got back on the horse, bid again & offer was accepted!! (sorry , we are from texas....horse fits better than bicycle)

so 2% chance of getting ROFR 3 times in a row... that means the chances of getting ROFR 4 times in a row is astronomical.....if it happens...i'm buying a lottery ticket AND may head to Vegas instead of Disney next time. Wish us luck!!!!

I would buy the lotto anyway. Good luck

 

[TexasChick123]

will post details later...but just got back on the horse, bid again & offer was accepted!! (sorry , we are from texas....horse fits better than bicycle)

so 2% chance of getting ROFR 3 times in a row... that means the chances of getting ROFR 4 times in a row is astronomical.....if it happens...i'm buying a lottery ticket AND may head to Vegas instead of Disney next time. Wish us luck!!!!

I've had ROFR exercised on me 2 times and had to cancel a deal 2 times because of point usage after submitting to ROFR. I did get one through at a good price and am waiting on sellers to send in closing docs. I really do think you need to target June or August right now to have a better shot. September-December will be ripe for the picking for ROFR. Keep submitting, and one will get through. I truly know how frustrating it is, and I'm sorry you have to deal with this, fellow Texan!

 

[JHank44]

How do you calculate ROFR from OOC? DVC Resale Market say ROFR on their contracts is 7.5% this year. Last month they sold 52 SSR contracts and one was taken. 28% would seem to be much higher than anything I've seen elsewhere?

I was doing back of envelope where Grantee is Disney on OCC. However, that also includes foreclosures so my ROFR rate is overstated (more so for SSR where there seems to be a higher rate of foreclosure).

I go through contract by contract for BLT and the rate has gone from 12% from Oct 1, 2016 - Sep 30, 2016 to 27% from Oct 1, 2017 - present.

As for the dvc resale blog, they are only talking about their contracts... their contracts are generally on the high end (IMO) so I would think their ROFR rates to be lower than what you'll see looking at the market as a whole.

 

[mustinjourney]

One thing that is apparent in the data, UY matters a lot more than people realize. Disney's demand model has a preference for "on-the-run" (bond nomenclature if familiar) so they exercise ROFR at a lot higher rate on months that are upcoming - e.g. they will take Sep/Oct UY right now. Your best bet is to buy something that has just left "on-the-run" status like June UY. Also, it is better to buy a UY that has more point allocation (http://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-pr...ar-distribution-charts-updated-september-2015). All this said, if they have a waitlist for that UY, it will be taken.

Well put -- I was just about to say this, and you said it better than I would have.

For those wondering why this is the case, my guess is that Disney can buy those UYs that are upcoming and then immediately flip them with their current points in tact.

DVD has to sell their direct contracts with current points, so if they buy an upcoming contract missing its current UY points, they only have to wait a few weeks to a month for the new UY to hit, and then they can sell it direct with full points. So right now in August, they could ROFR a Sept UY that has 0 2016 points and full 2017 points, wait a week or so, and then sell it direct with full 2017 points going forward. This is one factor of course. We all assume that this is one reason why DVD doesn't seem to buy fully stripped contracts, since they would then have to sit on it for a year or two before flipping it.

 

[mustinjourney]

Just checked the OCC, YTD at Saratoga Springs, DVC has exercised ROFR on 297 contracts and passed on 798 contracts so they are exercising at a rate of ~27%. Last year, there were 436 exercised with 1124 waived for ~28% exercise rate. There isn't much difference at SSR on that front. Just doing straight up probabilities it is only 2% chance of being ROFR 3x in a row but you must be buying an in demand UY which change the odds.

WOW! I had no idea they were taking that many SSR contracts via ROFR. I'm a little shocked so many people would be buying in direct there, when they could buy in at Poly or CCV for basically the same price with the incentives -- and end up with a longer term.

I know the MFs are lower at SSR, but buying direct there makes little sense to me unless you're just buying 25 points as an add-on to get the benefits.

*ETA -- I see you updated that you didn't do a deep dive into the SSR data, so the 27% includes foreclosures. Makes me think though since the numbers are the same as last year -- I wonder if Disney has a target % of points to get via foreclosure/ROFR -- so if their foreclosures go down, they have to increase their ROFR. With the stock market humming, it's possible that foreclosures are down, which has resulted in more ROFR.