Summer Numbers

[Peter Pirate 2]

Just released. WDW guests were flat (-) this summer, While Universal was up 36%. Wow!

 

[WDW_lover_in_SC]

We all know why Universal spiked. Lets see how that looks next summer.

 

[Peter Pirate 2]

We all know why Universal spiked. Lets see how that looks next summer.

One HP movie just released, another next summer ... How does it look for the winter, spring and next summer for Universal?

 

[Golf4food]

Smaller number plus 36% is not better than giant number. Any park with a new hyped attraction will get a brief spike.

 

[Peter Pirate 2]

Smaller number plus 36% is not better than giant number. Any park with a new hyped attraction will get a brief spike.

36% for the summer is a brief spike? What would be significant?

 

[WDW_lover_in_SC]

One HP movie just released, another next summer ... How does it look for the winter, spring and next summer for Universal?

I don't think the movies have as much impact as you're thinking. Once everyone who cares sees it once or twice those number will fall again. I bet Magic Kingdom will be up around 50% when the FLE is done.

 

[Peter Pirate 2]

I don't think the movies have as much impact as you're thinking. Once everyone who cares sees it once or twice those number will fall again. I bet Magic Kingdom will be up around 50% when the FLE is done.

"Those who care to see it"? The movies don't have influence? Based on the numbers it seems that most everyone wants to see it. If the movies don't count then what does? Obviously according to you anything Disney does = good. Anything Universal does = lucky.

 

[Oglet]

Its a lot easier to move big percentages when your dealing with small numbers.

I think the fact that Disney remained flat despite Universal throwing everything they have out there for Potter says that people will still go to Disney no matter what Universal does.

It will be interesting to see how Universal comes out the the year following the completion of Fantasyland when Disney has a bit of a spike.

I am also fairly confident that the expansion of Fantasyland once its completed will be the end of free dining and the heavy discounting.

I don't think the movies have as much impact as you're thinking. Once everyone who cares sees it once or twice those number will fall again. I bet Magic Kingdom will be up around 50% when the FLE is done.

50% isn't going to happen... that would be close to 8 million extra people over a year

 

[Peter Pirate 2]

Its a lot easier to move big percentages when your dealing with small numbers.

I think the fact that Disney remained flat despite Universal throwing everything they have out there for Potter says that people will still go to Disney no matter what Universal does.

It will be interesting to see how Universal comes out the the year following the completion of Fantasyland when Disney has a bit of a spike.

I am also fairly confident that the expansion of Fantasyland once its completed will be the end of free dining and the heavy discounting.

I agree and disagree.

No one and I repeat no one ever has said that Universal competes on a level playing field with Disney. They don't. But a 36% increase is way more than they've ever shown before, even in the good years. A 36% increase is just HUGE!

Everyone wants to say that WDW ultimately won't be affected by Universal but actually the truth is the same in reverse too. Fantasyland may give MK a bump (50% is laughable, IMO) but HP will continue to lift Universal as well. Plus, as Oglet said, Disney will have to battle the repeal of the discounts. Good luck.

Universal is finally in the enviable position of being in charge of their own destiny, IMO (Disney has always been). All they have to do is offer a moderate upgrade to HP land for the next couple of years and "they will come". Disney, on the other hand, is upgrading Fantasyland (long over due) but it's predominately a children's area so it's impact vs. Universal will be nil.

 

[DC7800]

We all know why Universal spiked. Lets see how that looks next summer.

We know why Disney was flat too - and it wasn't solely the fault of the economy. WDW won't have had a major new addition in three years by the single addition next summer of a revamped simulator attraction. Not that I don't expect Star Tours to be good, but it could be the greatest thing ever and it still wouldn't be as easy to market as something new - like Potter. It also affects only one park that many or most WDW guests were going to visit anyway. Again, it remains a very worthwhile project, as you need new experiences to keep your (existing) visitors coming back. I'm just not sure how much of an attendance bump Disney will get out of this.

I am also fairly confident that the expansion of Fantasyland once its completed will be the end of free dining

We can only hope. That might be my favorite part of the Fantasyland expansion...

I bet Magic Kingdom will be up around 50% when the FLE is done.

Ignoring all other (implausible) considerations, would the Magic Kingdom even have the capacity to handle a fifty percent increase in attendance? One of the stated reasons for the Fantasyland expansion is, after all, park capacity.

Once everyone who cares sees it once or twice those number will fall again.

Does this also apply to the Fantasyland additions, or just to Universal? By that reasoning, do you also expect only a brief surge in Magic Kingdom attendance until those interested have seen it once or twice?

 

[Oglet]

I agree and disagree.

No one and I repeat no one ever has said that Universal competes on a level playing field with Disney. They don't. But a 36% increase is way more than they've ever shown before, even in the good years. A 36% increase is just HUGE!

The numbers last released prior to these showed quite a loss for Universal at both their parks do you think its possible that a lot of people were simply waiting for HP to open before they made their trip there?.

If that is the case a large portion of the 36% increase can be contributed to people not going in the previous months creating the mad summer time rush that we all witnessed so in reality their actual increase is a far different figure. Hopefully they can continue to ride the wave of HP and continue to show large increases for a number of years, Its going to be hard to sustain the kind of growth they are looking for but lets see how it goes.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

New attraction = brief spike in attendance. ---> Continually repeat process.

If they continually update and add E-ticket attractions, all the "brief spikes in attendance" string together, and that is how you build sustained growth.

MG

 

[skiingfast]

Let me point out something logical.

When something is at a level, we will call it 10 and drops to 6. It is far more likely to go up then down. Because 6 is a much smaller amount than infinity.

Universal has had a drop in attendance so it was more likely to have a gain.


Disney in the meantime has a great success if it's number were flat. Many people blindly think that disney has maintained discounts. They have trimmed back the offerings. This apparently has not affected attendance. So WDW has generated greater revenue per guest.

 

[Timmy Boy]

If Disney wants to battle Universal with their Fantasyland Expansion, then go for it. However, they will have to market it as "for the entire family" because quite honestly, a "Fantasyland expansion" to the general public sounds like " more princesses and fairy tales". If they want to attract more than the little girl crowd, they may want to do some remarketing.

Also, Universal knows how powerful their new land is. If I were them, I'd plan and announce Potter phase 2 very soon. I'm sure they already have plans and ideas for the rest of Lost Continent.

It'll be really interesting to see how the 2 companies play this out.

 

[TheRustyScupper]

If Disney wants to battle Universal with their Fantasyland Expansion, then go for it. However, they will have to market it as "for the entire family" because quite honestly, a "Fantasyland expansion" to the general public sounds like " more princesses and fairy tales". If they want to attract more than the little girl crowd . . .

From your lips to Ogre's (I mean Iger's) ears.

 

[Oglet]

Universal has had a drop in attendance so it was more likely to have a gain.

Yep, by the time you factor in a couple steady declines around 13% or so it quickly reduces the 36% that people are so excited about down to a small gain.

 

[Peter Pirate 2]

Yep, by the time you factor in a couple steady declines around 13% or so it quickly reduces the 36% that people are so excited about down to a small gain.

You're grasping at straws.

 

[Oglet]

You're grasping at straws.

How so?

If you mean the 13% that was a rough guess that was out there based on what I have seen published, 11.9% was the actual number published.

For the year 2009, Universals Islands of Adventure reported a decline of 11.9% in park attendance. While the 36% increase is good for '10 I think its only fair to factor in the loss that was reported in the first part of the year before getting too excited about things.

 

[Peter Pirate 2]

How so?

They haven't had the decreases you're speaking of. A 12% decline, with a small increase and a small decrease in the past three years. A 36% increase is well above equal but if we're talking suppositions then how about this? After another Universal increase of 36% again next year, WDW is looking a real problem.

 

[Oglet]

They haven't had the decreases you're speaking of. A 12% decline, with a small increase and a small decrease in the past three years. A 36% increase is well above equal but if we're talking suppositions then how about this? After another Universal increase of 36% again next year, WDW is looking a real problem.

If they keep the 36% increase coming over a longer period of time then it will be a big thing, as of right now it doesn't change a whole lot for the big picture.

I don't believe that WDW would be looking at a real problem if Universal continues to show positive growth, I don't believe that anything Universal could do would create a real problem for WDW.

The truth is Disney feed of Universal and Universal certainly feed of Disney and the people coming to the Orlando area to visit.

Imagine if Disney decided to close WDW and move it elsewhere... I think that Universal would be hit far harder than Disney would be if Universal packed up and moved elsewhere.

I really don't want to hijack this thread and turn it into another Disney v's Universal or Universal v's Disney (Just to appear fair I wrote it both ways) thread.

Both are great, I like them both very much and would love for Universal to get back to how it was in the golden days.