I think the way to go is book something you are happy with via a TA and try to get their special incentivized discount and then see what happens. We did the same, booked 2 weeks via a TA at just over 30% discount and then modified it once AP discounts came out to a split stay between the TA Poly rate for the 2nd week and the AP discount at WL for the 1st week.
I think with all the construction and changing around plus the opening of Pandora, Disney went all out to get as many people in as possible and the discount codes were enough to prompt people to book. Just remember though, i am sure there are lots of people have over booked their hotels just so they can get what they want and as such will relinquish those bookings. So keep checking!