Summary of TSS resales-Updated May 12-2010 - pg 3

[gtrist4life]

OK tried to find the thread I started before, no luck.

Anyway, this is a summary of recent resale info off the TSS listings
It also has the previous summaries from March last year, and Oct last year.
Thought that since AKV have been on sale for a couple of weeks, that there'd be an increase in activity. Sure looks that way, lots of BCV, of course it has the highest avg offer price too.

Enjoy, and if anyone wants the spreadsheet PM me.

Peace,
G4L

 

[Granny]

Interesting data...thanks for posting.

BCV is the thing that jumps out at me. Big increase in resale activity and a hefty price jump as well. Considering their size, BCV and VWL seem to have a lot of resale activity.

Of course, this doesn't take into account the resales that never make it to the postings. But if anything, I would have thought that would keep the BCV number lower.

Interesting grist for the mill...thanks!

 

[rlduvall]

Great information. Thanks for taking the time to compile it. I have a small HH contract and am so torn between an add-on for BWV (because I love that area) or SSR/AKV for the extra 12-14 years.

 

[gtrist4life]

I think next time I pull the listings and post the summary, I'll take out the avg points listed. The number of contracts and the avg. offering price is what I'm most interested. We've discussed this before, this data is mainly geared for what sellers are doing. However, TSS has been selling for so long that they have a good handle on what the market prices should be.

rlduvall, I too am thinking of a 60-80 pt. add-on, but probably not until next year. There'll be some AKV re-sales by then, and who knows maybe another DVC resort selling, unlikely, but maybe.

If we do an add-on it will be at either SSR-AKL or HHI. But if we fall in love with Vero, it may be added to the mix too.
Choices, choices, choices...

Peace, G4L

 

[gtrist4life]

Updated TSS Listing chart, when I pulled the data, it first looked like there were a lot more resales than in Feb, but I was wrong. BC price remains very high.

Peace,
G4L

 

[bobbiwoz]

I find this interesting, thank you. Our last resale purchase was more than 2 years ago, and we paid $77 for VWL, and were so happy it squeaked by ROFR.
Bobbi

 

[DBBN]

Thanks for taking the time to update and post this.

 

[momba#9]

What I find interesting is SSR had 57 resales at that time. That seems like a lot for a new resort. It could be just pure size of the resort but I wonder if a lot of those "I'll buy whatever DVC is currently selling" people had a change of heart.

Thanks for the info.


Mike

 

[jdg345]

What I find interesting is SSR had 57 resales at that time. That seems like a lot for a new resort. It could be just pure size of the resort but I wonder if a lot of those "I'll buy whatever DVC is currently selling" people had a change of heart.

Thanks for the info.


Mike

I was thinking that it could be SSR owners with multiple contracts looking to unload a few points to buy into AKV?

 

[Granny]

What I find interesting is SSR had 57 resales at that time. That seems like a lot for a new resort. It could be just pure size of the resort but I wonder if a lot of those "I'll buy whatever DVC is currently selling" people had a change of heart.

Mike...it is actually true of all new resorts that there is a fairly active resale market quickly. And yes, the size of the resort comes into play with the number of contracts.

Buyers remorse, first trip disappointments, lack of understanding of DVC rules and planning needs, change in financial situations....all come into play. I don't think the SSR numbers are particularly alarming. I'd be surprised if it had much to do with selling to get AKV points since there is not much of a contract life difference and AKV probably won't be overly hard to get rooms at the 7 month mark for much of the year.

gtrist4life...thanks for taking the time to compile the numbers and share them in such a nice format.

 

[gtrist4life]

The thanks are appreciated, but it really doesn't take that long to calculate. Pivot Tables in Excel do most of the work. I'll update this every 4 to 6 months,
May add a number of resales/rooms per resort percentage next time.

I think the jump in resales is a combo of more owners, AKV being on sale, and even the probablility of CRV/other resort announcements.

Still can't understand the price diff between BC and BW/VWL. 9-13 percent higher is too steep for me.
I guess it's a combo of the attraction of Stormalong Bay/fewer number of villas/and you have a shorter walk to Epcot than BW.

Peace,
G4L

 

[Granny]

Still can't understand the price diff between BC and BW/VWL. 9-13 percent higher is too steep for me.
I guess it's a combo of the attraction of Stormalong Bay/fewer number of villas/and you have a shorter walk to Epcot than BW.

I think it's the pool and small size. Most prospective DVC buyers aren't savvy enough to factor in things like Standard View lower point schedule and guaranteed BW Views.

VWL doesn't surprise me. Though it's so small, it really has a smaller group (though quite fanatical ) of devotees and probably has a hard time competing with the location of the BWV and BCV. That's why Y & BC rooms go for a higher rate than WL rooms.

 

[TTFN!]

Subscribing.

 

[gtrist4life]

It's been about 4 months since the last update. Big jump in SSR resales and we have an AK resale in the mix. Enjoy the numbers. I'm sure the OKW changes/offering will impact the numbers next time. Peace

 

[Disney MAINEiac]

interesting the jump in SSR resales. Does anyone know off the top of their heads the total units/contracts at SSR compared to the rest of the resorts?

Just curious if the number might be associated to the resort nearing sell out so there are just naturally more contracts available to go on the resale market? and if the ratio of resales to contracts is fairly constant with all resorts?

Good info to ponder though, thank you.

 

[Tinkerdreams]

There are around 800 rooms at SSR. Breakdown in case anyone is interested is 258 Studios, 258 1 BR, 258 2 BR and 36 GV. Seeing the number of resales at 69 is not alarming.

It would be interesting to know how many rooms per DVC and then comparing them to the resales. A small resort like BWV and BCV which have a smaller # of rooms (how many - maybe 250 per resort?) BWV has 28 resales and BCV has 24 resales. IF the # of rooms is 250 then the # of resales is not a concern either.

Don't know the breakdown of # of points per resort that were sold. Overall the # of resales is VERY low.

 

[salmoneous]

What I find interesting is SSR had 57 resales at that time. That seems like a lot for a new resort.

Always keep in mind there are tens of thousands of SSR owners. When looking for trends and meaning, also look at those who aren't selling.

If sales jump from 30 - 60, it sure looks significant. But if the number of people who aren't selling drops from 49,970 to 49,940, is that significant?

G4L - Thanks as always for the data. If I may be greedy for a second: One thing that should be easy for you to do would be to split the average price/point into <=100 point and >100 point contracts. Small contracts go for a hefty premium. A shift in price in your data might not be a shift in average price, just a shift in the % of small contracts involved.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Always keep in mind there are tens of thousands of SSR owners. When looking for trends and meaning, also look at those who aren't selling.

If sales jump from 30 - 60, it sure looks significant. But if the number of people who aren't selling drops from 49,970 to 49,940, is that significant?

G4L - Thanks as always for the data. If I may be greedy for a second: One thing that should be easy for you to do would be to split the average price/point into <=100 point and >100 point contracts. Small contracts go for a hefty premium. A shift in price in your data might not be a shift in average price, just a shift in the % of small contracts involved.

I don't see how you can trend a figure thats not known. Is there a stated total contract number per resort? I haven't seen that. Unless that is public knowledge, there would be no way to track contracts for sale compared to total of number of contracts sold. I think G4L is doing a good job based on the facts available to them.

 

[LisaS]

It's been about 4 months since the last update. Big jump in SSR resales and we have an AK resale in the mix. Enjoy the numbers. I'm sure the OKW changes/offering will impact the numbers next time. Peace

Great data! Thanks for keeping this going. I think maybe the total in the Oct '07 column has not included the AKV data. I think the total should be 192 rather than 191.

 

[salmoneous]

I don't see how you can trend a figure thats not known. Is there a stated total contract number per resort? I haven't seen that. Unless that is public knowledge, there would be no way to track contracts for sale compared to total of number of contracts sold. I think G4L is doing a good job based on the facts available to them.

I certainly hope my post wasn't taken as criticism of G4L - just something for people to keep in mind.

No, we don't know how many contracts there are at SSR. But it's in the tens of thousands. My basic point is the same no matter how mans tens of thousands: 57 contracts for sale may seem like a lot, until you realize how many aren't for sale. Whether that number is 20,000, 50,000 or 70,000, the number for sale is still a pretty small fraction. (And, yes, we also have to consider the number up for sale other than at TSS. But no matter how you look at it, the number up for sale is still tiny.)