State of Fast Pass Return (or replacement)

[rainyvegandisney]

I haven’t been able to see the new show since they brought it back, but if I’m not mistaken isn’t it modified for social distancing? You can’t really do that for Indy or Beauty and the Beast. Do we know for sure they aren’t doing casting notices for those yet?

Beauty and the Beast started casting weeks ago. The only news I saw on Indiana Jones was a construction permit in February. I think the thing to note is that Disney wants new shows for the 50th anyway, so they may not see calling cast members back for 3 months a putting up and tearing down the stages as worth it.

 

[Dural]

So here is an interesting exercise for those of you claiming that Disney has been pricing out the middle class for the past few years.

I was curious, so I looked at median income and ticket pricing over the years.

In the 70s,
A Ticket $0.10 ($0.67 today)
B Ticket $0.25 ($1.68 today)
C Ticket $0.50 ($3.35 today)
D Ticket $0.75 ($5.00 today)
E Ticket $0.80-0.90 ($5.25 - 6.00)
7 ride ticket book $4.50/4.00/3.50 ($30/27/24) so approx $3-4 per ride in today’s money when there was only a single park and a small pool of rides (much like Shanghai Disney now)

Here is the median household income and the average cost for a family of 4 (2 adults, one teen, one child) to spend 1 day in a Disney theme park in 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001, 2011 and 2021. The income information is from the US Census Bureau and the ticket prices are from AllEars historical ticket pricing page. All tickets are base (for 1971 and 1981 this is general admission + lowest price ticket book, for 1991 and beyond it is a 1 day ticket with no add ons like park hopping etc)

1971
Median income = $9000
1 day for family of 4 = $27
That is approx 0.3% of the median household income

1981
Median income = $22,000
1 day for family of 4 = $61
That is approx 0.27% of the median household income

1991
Median income = $30,000
1 day for family of 4 = $119
That is approx 0.4% of the median household income. First major jump, but WDW now has 3 parks at this point.

2001
Median income = $42,000
1 day for family of 4 = $182
That is approx 0.43% of the median household income. Even though there are now 4 parks, we don’t see a large jump

2011
Median income = $50,000
1 day for a family of 4 = $320
That is approx 0.64% of the median household income. Between 2001 and this point, Magic Your Way tickets were introduced.

2021
Median income = $79,000
1 day for a family of 4 = $458
That is approx 0.57% of the median household income. This is the first decrease we’ve seen in percentage of income since 1982.

So in the 70s and 80s a single day at Disney (a one or two park property) was about 0.3% of annual income for the average family.

In the 90s and early 00s, that increased to about 0.4%. The 10s were the most expensive time to visit as far as % of household income and the 20s see our first decrease.

Just some food for thought when we say that Disney is getting totally out of line. The property has grown over the course of 50 years. The ticket prices have increased and it certainly costs more proportionately to go now than it did in 1971, but WDW then and WDW now aren’t an apples to apples comparison.

Late to the game, but just wanted to post this is a worthless comparison. Comparing it to 'median income' tells you nothing about how affordable it is for the average family because it in no way is able to assess true disposable income. And sadly you can't run a comparison against the government's definition of disposable income because they define disposable income as anything left over after taxes.

If you want a proper comparison, you must run it against 'real disposable income' - which is a difficult number to get at these days - but if you pay attention to business and economic news, you know this number has seen very little growth over the past 50 years. The costs that most Americans MUST pay for (beyond their optional Disney vacation), have far, far, outstripped inflation or wage growth. Just to name the big three (but other costs factor in as well):

1) Housing
2) Healthcare
3) College

I'll leave the numbers as an exercise for the reader, but you'll quickly find that the median household 'real disposable income' in America has just been decimated over the past 50 years. In 1970, on average only one member per household was working; in 2020, two members are working - and most families still are no better off.

I'll be kind and leave it at that - but I will say if you believe this comparison implies that Disney is just as affordable today as it was in 1970 - I've got a bridge to sell ya (it's cheap, hardly used)!

I didn't see that post until you quoted it and I completely agree. The 2021 income numbers aren't correct though, if we go by the closest available it would be $68,400 which would be ~0.66% of household income making it the most expensive it's ever been.

 

[POOH&PIGLET]

It's like people think Chapek is Snydley Whiplash or something.

 

[cakebaker]

I haven’t been able to see the new show since they brought it back, but if I’m not mistaken isn’t it modified for social distancing? You can’t really do that for Indy or Beauty and the Beast. Do we know for sure they aren’t doing casting notices for those yet?

According to recent posts, they're packing guests in with no regard to social distancing, yet still keeping key elements out of the show. FOTLK is my favorite show but we'll be skipping the lite version. I'd rather wait until the real thing is back, this one would just make me sad.

 

[whiporee]

I don't know if you can say they are packing guests in when some parks don't have availability -- just checked and MK is out for the next three days. I'm certain they aren't at max capacity, so they are limiting park access to some extent. And before they raised capacity, there were plenty of people frustrated about not being able to get a reservation.

They have raised the limits to be sure, but I don't think they are nearing capacity in any parks yet. Lines are still too long for most people, I know, but the idea that they've just opened the doors wide isn't exactly accurate from as far as I can see.

 

[TinkerBelle_325]

I don't know if you can say they are packing guests in when some parks don't have availability -- just checked and MK is out for the next three days. I'm certain they aren't at max capacity, so they are limiting park access to some extent. And before they raised capacity, there were plenty of people frustrated about not being able to get a reservation.

They have raised the limits to be sure, but I don't think they are nearing capacity in any parks yet. Lines are still too long for most people, I know, but the idea that they've just opened the doors wide isn't exactly accurate from as far as I can see.

Totally agree with you but wanted to point out that MK is available today and for the next two days and beyond for AP (just not available for Theme Park Ticket or Select Resort Guest)

 

[ziravan]

Taking in two common assumptions:

1. The Genie APP/Paid FP isn’t ready for prime time.

2. WDW doesn’t want to go back to FP+ because the current down time is a better transition to Genie.

The result if these two metrics prevail is no workable system until at least Oct 1, if not longer.

Those aren’t the only options to deal with capacity and crowd management, however.

At a minimum, WDW needs to extend the hours of every park by 2 hrs. That’s the stopgap they need right now.

They should make a statement that they’re working hard on their wonderful Genie APP but - in the meantime - they realize that they need a contingency plan and extra hours for all guests is that plan.

This would do wonders. MK and Epcot open until midnight would entice more afternoon guests and spread capacityin that way. AK and HS with 9 pm closing suddenly become hopper parks. Maybe add a 4 pm virtual queue for HS that anybody in the park at that time can seek.

If they can’t spread their crowds out over space, they need to do so over time. Shoot, even if they charged for say 4 extra hours each night, that’s more than they’re doing now and that would spread out the crowds.

I would pay $99/night for 22-02 at MK for my upcoming trip given current capacity. Or. Same amount for 19-23 at HS if RotR were included guaranteed. What’s the capacity, 1700 x 4? So limited to 5k tickets. Shoot that would sell out at $150.

In any case, somebody at WDW should be brainstorming alternatives to implement immediately before this gets further PR out of hand.

 

[Acup313]

Taking in two common assumptions:

1. The Genie APP/Paid FP isn’t ready for prime time.

2. WDW doesn’t want to go back to FP+ because the current down time is a better transition to Genie.

The result if these two metrics prevail is no workable system until at least Oct 1, if not longer.

Those aren’t the only options to deal with capacity and crowd management, however.

At a minimum, WDW needs to extend the hours of every park by 2 hrs. That’s the stopgap they need right now.

They should make a statement that they’re working hard on their wonderful Genie APP but - in the meantime - they realize that they need a contingency plan and extra hours for all guests is that plan.

This would do wonders. MK and Epcot open until midnight would entice more afternoon guests and spread capacityin that way. AK and HS with 9 pm closing suddenly become hopper parks. Maybe add a 4 pm virtual queue for HS that anybody in the park at that time can seek.

If they can’t spread their crowds out over space, they need to do so over time. Shoot, even if they charged for say 4 extra hours each night, that’s more than they’re doing now and that would spread out the crowds.

I would pay $99/night for 22-02 at MK for my upcoming trip given current capacity. Or. Same amount for 19-23 at HS if RotR were included guaranteed. What’s the capacity, 1700 x 4? So limited to 5k tickets. Shoot that would sell out at $150.

In any case, somebody at WDW should be brainstorming alternatives to implement immediately before this gets further PR out of hand.

This would work for me. We don’t rope drop but our kids could stay late to get those short waits.

 

[onelove8187]

Taking in two common assumptions:

1. The Genie APP/Paid FP isn’t ready for prime time.

2. WDW doesn’t want to go back to FP+ because the current down time is a better transition to Genie.

The result if these two metrics prevail is no workable system until at least Oct 1, if not longer.

Those aren’t the only options to deal with capacity and crowd management, however.

At a minimum, WDW needs to extend the hours of every park by 2 hrs. That’s the stopgap they need right now.

They should make a statement that they’re working hard on their wonderful Genie APP but - in the meantime - they realize that they need a contingency plan and extra hours for all guests is that plan.

This would do wonders. MK and Epcot open until midnight would entice more afternoon guests and spread capacityin that way. AK and HS with 9 pm closing suddenly become hopper parks. Maybe add a 4 pm virtual queue for HS that anybody in the park at that time can seek.

If they can’t spread their crowds out over space, they need to do so over time. Shoot, even if they charged for say 4 extra hours each night, that’s more than they’re doing now and that would spread out the crowds.

I would pay $99/night for 22-02 at MK for my upcoming trip given current capacity. Or. Same amount for 19-23 at HS if RotR were included guaranteed. What’s the capacity, 1700 x 4? So limited to 5k tickets. Shoot that would sell out at $150.

In any case, somebody at WDW should be brainstorming alternatives to implement immediately before this gets further PR out of hand.

I’ve been thinking this the past few days, I am very surprised hours haven’t been extended, particularly opening Epcot early.

 

[Future_WorldPhonencian]

I doubt it's the union that is the issue. They were able to call back some actors for the mini-version of FOTLK. It really is most likely they just don't want to shuck out the bucks for it. It certainly isn't safety concerns.

There's more to labor costs than salaries... I have a feeling it might have to do with insurance for actors. lots of language in contracts post Covid especially if you are in entertainment.

 

[Future_WorldPhonencian]

A quick look at Broadway show reopenings show that many shows are returning September- October. Newer shows as late as December. My guess, we will start seeing more entertainment come back in in the Septemeber/ October Time frame. While not as elaborate as Broadway shows, There is still a lot that goes into getting many of these productions up and running. Its not as easy as flipping a switch (ala Fastpass) or even hiring a few more entry level or CP cast members to run tapstiles, but its even much more difficult to find new acting talent than Food and Bev Workers (which is tough right now)

 

[zuzustargal]

Taking in two common assumptions:

1. The Genie APP/Paid FP isn’t ready for prime time.

2. WDW doesn’t want to go back to FP+ because the current down time is a better transition to Genie.

The result if these two metrics prevail is no workable system until at least Oct 1, if not longer.

Those aren’t the only options to deal with capacity and crowd management, however.

At a minimum, WDW needs to extend the hours of every park by 2 hrs. That’s the stopgap they need right now.

They should make a statement that they’re working hard on their wonderful Genie APP but - in the meantime - they realize that they need a contingency plan and extra hours for all guests is that plan.

This would do wonders. MK and Epcot open until midnight would entice more afternoon guests and spread capacityin that way. AK and HS with 9 pm closing suddenly become hopper parks. Maybe add a 4 pm virtual queue for HS that anybody in the park at that time can seek.

If they can’t spread their crowds out over space, they need to do so over time. Shoot, even if they charged for say 4 extra hours each night, that’s more than they’re doing now and that would spread out the crowds.

I would pay $99/night for 22-02 at MK for my upcoming trip given current capacity. Or. Same amount for 19-23 at HS if RotR were included guaranteed. What’s the capacity, 1700 x 4? So limited to 5k tickets. Shoot that would sell out at $150.

In any case, somebody at WDW should be brainstorming alternatives to implement immediately before this gets further PR out of hand.

100% agree! Giving a statement and then some kind of extra while we wait for the "genie" would do wonders!

 

[JeffjonesHfx]

Taking in two common assumptions:

1. The Genie APP/Paid FP isn’t ready for prime time.

2. WDW doesn’t want to go back to FP+ because the current down time is a better transition to Genie.

The result if these two metrics prevail is no workable system until at least Oct 1, if not longer.

Those aren’t the only options to deal with capacity and crowd management, however.

At a minimum, WDW needs to extend the hours of every park by 2 hrs. That’s the stopgap they need right now.

They should make a statement that they’re working hard on their wonderful Genie APP but - in the meantime - they realize that they need a contingency plan and extra hours for all guests is that plan.

This would do wonders. MK and Epcot open until midnight would entice more afternoon guests and spread capacityin that way. AK and HS with 9 pm closing suddenly become hopper parks. Maybe add a 4 pm virtual queue for HS that anybody in the park at that time can seek.

If they can’t spread their crowds out over space, they need to do so over time. Shoot, even if they charged for say 4 extra hours each night, that’s more than they’re doing now and that would spread out the crowds.

I would pay $99/night for 22-02 at MK for my upcoming trip given current capacity. Or. Same amount for 19-23 at HS if RotR were included guaranteed. What’s the capacity, 1700 x 4? So limited to 5k tickets. Shoot that would sell out at $150.

In any case, somebody at WDW should be brainstorming alternatives to implement immediately before this gets further PR out of hand.

I agree with the extension of park hours. Mainly because it would fit my vacation style. I like the parks at night and would prefer the extended closing hours vs. what is happening now with no FP+. Bringing back the shows and Fantasmic would help to alleviate some of the crowd as well, but I appreciate that it takes people and time to put a show together.

 

[cakebaker]

They should make a statement that they’re working hard on their wonderful Genie APP but - in the meantime - they realize that they need a contingency plan and extra hours for all guests is that plan.

I agree with most everything you suggested but the above is never, ever going to happen. I don't recall a time WDW has ever admitted there was an issue that they needed to address or given a heads up on anything they have in the works other than new rides or refurbishments. They should, but they won't.

 

[CSLucas]

Taking in two common assumptions:

1. The Genie APP/Paid FP isn’t ready for prime time.

2. WDW doesn’t want to go back to FP+ because the current down time is a better transition to Genie.

The result if these two metrics prevail is no workable system until at least Oct 1, if not longer.

Those aren’t the only options to deal with capacity and crowd management, however.

At a minimum, WDW needs to extend the hours of every park by 2 hrs. That’s the stopgap they need right now.

They should make a statement that they’re working hard on their wonderful Genie APP but - in the meantime - they realize that they need a contingency plan and extra hours for all guests is that plan.

This would do wonders. MK and Epcot open until midnight would entice more afternoon guests and spread capacityin that way. AK and HS with 9 pm closing suddenly become hopper parks. Maybe add a 4 pm virtual queue for HS that anybody in the park at that time can seek.

If they can’t spread their crowds out over space, they need to do so over time. Shoot, even if they charged for say 4 extra hours each night, that’s more than they’re doing now and that would spread out the crowds.

I would pay $99/night for 22-02 at MK for my upcoming trip given current capacity. Or. Same amount for 19-23 at HS if RotR were included guaranteed. What’s the capacity, 1700 x 4? So limited to 5k tickets. Shoot that would sell out at $150.

In any case, somebody at WDW should be brainstorming alternatives to implement immediately before this gets further PR out of hand.

The problem I see here is we are less than a month away from Boo Bash starting up - which means all those dates are out for MK hours extensions. Last I was at Epcot, most of it was still barricaded off - granted that was 3 months ago so maybe that has sorted itself out now? The way it was I certainly wasn't wishing for any more time there. I agree that HS being extended would help spread some people out - or maybe if you added a third chance at a boarding group then you could convince people to hop over and reduce crowds at MK and AK (but I think this only works if Fantasmic is back to eat up all the people who just got disappointed because they hopped for Rise and didn't get a boarding group).
I do think it is interesting that August was extended by an hour for HS with the exception of a few dates - if they extended for Fantasmic opening then I would think everything would be extended, so I wonder why certain dates (for instance the very end of August) kept the 8 PM close.
At this point I've accepted that our end of August trip is going to be crowded. I've never been a lover of FP so I'm not devastated over it. Our April trip was crowded but manageable, and we do 3 TS a day so at least we have built-in breaks from waiting in lines.

 

[Mac30188]

Taking in two common assumptions:

1. The Genie APP/Paid FP isn’t ready for prime time.

2. WDW doesn’t want to go back to FP+ because the current down time is a better transition to Genie.

The result if these two metrics prevail is no workable system until at least Oct 1, if not longer.

Those aren’t the only options to deal with capacity and crowd management, however.

At a minimum, WDW needs to extend the hours of every park by 2 hrs. That’s the stopgap they need right now.

They should make a statement that they’re working hard on their wonderful Genie APP but - in the meantime - they realize that they need a contingency plan and extra hours for all guests is that plan.

This would do wonders. MK and Epcot open until midnight would entice more afternoon guests and spread capacityin that way. AK and HS with 9 pm closing suddenly become hopper parks. Maybe add a 4 pm virtual queue for HS that anybody in the park at that time can seek.

If they can’t spread their crowds out over space, they need to do so over time. Shoot, even if they charged for say 4 extra hours each night, that’s more than they’re doing now and that would spread out the crowds.

I would pay $99/night for 22-02 at MK for my upcoming trip given current capacity. Or. Same amount for 19-23 at HS if RotR were included guaranteed. What’s the capacity, 1700 x 4? So limited to 5k tickets. Shoot that would sell out at $150.

In any case, somebody at WDW should be brainstorming alternatives to implement immediately before this gets further PR out of hand.

Well thought out and great post. I still think they have not closed the door on FP+ returning, but it maybe a break glass in case of emergency plan. I am flexible as to how they solve the problem. I just would like them to do something. I still strongly suspect they want something on October 1st. It is both the anniversary kick off and usually a fairly popular month. I

 

[ziravan]

The problem I see here is we are less than a month away from Boo Bash starting up - which means all those dates are out for MK hours extensions. Last I was at Epcot, most of it was still barricaded off - granted that was 3 months ago so maybe that has sorted itself out now? The way it was I certainly wasn't wishing for any more time there. I agree that HS being extended would help spread some people out - or maybe if you added a third chance at a boarding group then you could convince people to hop over and reduce crowds at MK and AK (but I think this only works if Fantasmic is back to eat up all the people who just got disappointed because they hopped for Rise and didn't get a boarding group).
I do think it is interesting that August was extended by an hour for HS with the exception of a few dates - if they extended for Fantasmic opening then I would think everything would be extended, so I wonder why certain dates (for instance the very end of August) kept the 8 PM close.
At this point I've accepted that our end of August trip is going to be crowded. I've never been a lover of FP so I'm not devastated over it. Our April trip was crowded but manageable, and we do 3 TS a day so at least we have built-in breaks from waiting in lines.

Work it around Boo Bash - open late every night - some of those nights are Boo Bash, some are not.
Shoot, price it the same or make every night Boo Bash.

EPCOT? Extend F&W as well. Drinking and Food late into the night? I can look at barricades while I’m drinking.

Would you pay $150 for 4 hrs at HS, 19-23, limited to say 6k guests with a guaranteed RotR return time? I bet they could sell out at $200 and that would essentially be a $50 paid FP for one ride.

 

[123SA]

Work it around Boo Bash - open late every night - some of those nights are Boo Bash, some are not.
Shoot, price it the same or make every night Boo Bash.

EPCOT? Extend F&W as well. Drinking and Food late into the night? I can look at barricades while I’m drinking.

Would you pay $150 for 4 hrs at HS, 19-23, limited to say 6k guests with a guaranteed RotR return time? I bet they could sell out at $200 and that would essentially be a $50 paid FP for one ride.

yes

 

[tigger2002]

Would you pay $150 for 4 hrs at HS,

I think I am already doing that.

 

[ChipnDale79]

Would you pay $150 for 4 hrs at HS, 19-23, limited to say 6k guests with a guaranteed RotR return time? I bet they could sell out at $200 and that would essentially be a $50 paid FP for one ride.

@$150 each, family of 4, that’s $600 for 4 hours.
I know some will pay it, but that’s a hard pass for us, that’s a lot of money…