Originally posted by Dean
In some ways this is a very simple process. If there's a resort you want to stay at most vists, buy there, PERIOD. If you just want to try them all and mostly stay at WDW, price (upfront and dues) become the big issues. If you need financing, you may be better off buying from DVC directly. DO NOT buy off site with the idea of simply using the points at WDW. While it may work out most of the time, there are no guarantees, so why complicate your life for very few dollars in savings when you don't have to. Truth is with VB, it will be more expensive in the long run due to the dues costs. If your goal is to try them all and you don't care which one, price is the issue. That means OKW will likely be the cheapest in terms of both price and dues but you might get something just as cheap at your first choice. SSR will be a consideration due to the longer time. IMO, the lenth of the contract will not come into play for at least 10 more years and should not drive your decision.
Dean,
I think this is all good advice... clearly buy where you want as first priortiy... get the best price... and if on-site is all that you care about... then OKW is probably the best deal... especially when it comes to initial cash outlay.
I do question the relative low value you put on the contract terms (38 vs 50 yr). I tend to think of most major purchases as a sum of 3 separate parts:
1) capital expense ($/point of the contract)
2) fixed recurring costs (MFs)
3) incremental costs (points/night, airfare, tickets, etc).
Item #3 above should be pretty constant regardless of which resort is owned IF you spread out your vacations across the various properties. If you concentrate your stays at your home resort... then there will be some advantage for certain resorts (OKW, BWV Std, SSR).
Item #2 is easy to figure right now... but has variability because each resort can change its MFs yearly.
Item #1 is where I have the biggest questions. In my reasoning... the market price for a resort will tend to initially drop once a resale market develops... then slowly rise as DVC sells new points at higher rates... dragging the resale values upward... and finally declining as number of years remaining starts becoming a limiting factor. I think that the initial WDW resorts (OKW, VWL, BWV, and BCV) have exhibited this... except that the market price has not started declining yet. I think it is safe to assume that at some point... the price has to decline unless DVC was to extend the term of the contracts.
Having said that... It seems to me that you have two choices on item #1.
a) buy a resort in which the value of your capital will likely decrease... -or-
b) buy SSR (and presumably EP and others) where the value is likely to increase in value for some amount of time (as did the original 4 resorts).
*IF* (and I acknowledge that it is a big IF)... the resale value of SSR follows similar price curves to the other resorts... then it makes sense to me that the best approach might be to buy SSR since the capital is likely to increase in value... and then... when it reaches its peak... sell SSR and replace it with a new property which is on a new price curve. For SSR... my expectations this will occur in about 10-15 years, when DVC opens a new resort with a new 50 year term. (again... assuming that history repeats itself)
I could be all wet in my analysis... but that is the rationale that I used in choosing SSR... AFTER taking into consideration the more important points that you mentioned... most importantly: choosing a resort that I wanted to visit regularly!
/Jim
