SSR Contract Sales Data - Projected Sell-Out Date: Nov 2007

[dvc_john]

The total points for SSR needs to be checked to see if that is for 12 or 18 Buildings.

It would appear the SSR total is for 10 buildings. That post was from March '06. Both Troy and I (using different methods) came up with about 729,000 points per building. Multiply that by 10 buildings and subtract 2 to 3 percent held back by DVD, and you get 7,100,000 points.

 

[icydog]

JimC posted the following message that summarizes the total points for each DVC Resort.
http://www.disboards.com/showpost.php?p=11801367&postcount=3

Manning posted the following message that summarizes the 2006 Dues for each DVC Resort.
http://www.disboards.com/showpost.php?p=10645299&postcount=1

Using the information from those two posts I did some simple math assuming the information provided is valid.


2006 Information
Resort__________Points______Dues_______TotalDues
OKW__________7,700,000_____$4.24_____$32,648,000
VBsub________3,100,000_____$4.12_____$12,772,000
VBunsub______1,600,000_____$5.27______$8,432,000
HH___________1,400,000_____$4.34______$6,076,000
BWV__________4,900,000_____$4.69_____$22,981,000
VWL__________2,000,000_____$4.61______$9,220,000
BCV__________3,000,000_____$4.48_____$13,440,000
SSR__________7,100,000_____$3.98_____$28,258,000

Total_______30,800,000______....____$133,827,000


The total points for SSR needs to be checked to see if that is for 12 or 18 Buildings.

VBsub = subsidized contracts
VBunsub = unsubsidized contracts

I didn't check these numbers against the Operating Budgets to see if they are close.

What is a subsidized and unsubidized point. I have two Vero Contracts both for 150 points. I bought one from Disney and one from a broker. Is that the difference between subsidized and unsubsidized?? Who determines what subsidises should be given out.

 

[Lewisc]

Sales at SSR might slow down after a DVC at either AKL or the Contemporary is officially announced.

 

[BirdsOfPreyDave]

What is a subsidized and unsubidized point. I have two Vero Contracts both for 150 points. I bought one from Disney and one from a broker. Is that the difference between subsidized and unsubsidized?? Who determines what subsidises should be given out.

The subsidies are for very early buyers at VB and are not transferable if the contract is sold. Changes were made to the VB project after some sales had already been made. The size of the resort is smaller than had originally been planned. Since there were fewer points over which to spread the expenses of running the resort, it meant maintenance fees would be higher per point than originally understood by these early buyers. As a result, DVC subsidizes part of their annual dues.

 

[TheRustyScupper]

1) I think the statistics are pretty close.
2) But, as those of in business know, stats sometimes do tell the story.
3) In this case, I think stats can't predict the sales.
4) The stats don't take into account
. . . per-point costs are increasing, impacting median families
. . . fuel costs are reducing disposable income for the purchase
. . . fuel costs are restricting vacation travel by car or plane
. . . not at saturation, but the "population" of available buyers is decreasing
. . . animal kingdom or contemporary DVC's will reduce demand for SSR
5) I personally believe it will be 2 to 2-1/2 yrs for a sell-out. *


* All other DVC resorts sales greatly slowed as they approached sell-out.

 

[mydogdrew]

The subsidies are for very early buyers at VB and are not transferable if the contract is sold. Changes were made to the VB project after some sales had already been made. The size of the resort is smaller than had originally been planned. Since there were fewer points over which to spread the expenses of running the resort, it meant maintenance fees would be higher per point than originally understood by these early buyers. As a result, DVC subsidizes part of their annual dues.

Don't the "newer" owners subsidize the lower rate? I don't believe DVC does this directly. If the subsidy went away, the blended rate of about $4.50 per point would apply to all? I just have a hard time believing that DVC writes a check for $3.5m a year....

 

[Lexxiefern]

Great info - will be interesting to see when SSR actually does sell out.

 

[dvc_john]

1) * All other DVC resorts sales greatly slowed as they approached sell-out.

I disagree!

For example, when BWV neared sell-out, there was a feeding frenzy of people buying while points were still available. Guides couldn't keep up. One day there would be 'x' thousand points available for a given use year, and a few days later that use year would be sold out.

OKW started slowly (it was a new concept), but built up steam (even after they stopped giving the limited admission program). When they added buildings 62-64, they sold very quickly.

From the day they announced SSR, we've heard nothing but how long it would take to sell out (some people forecasted 6-8 years for 12 buildings), and how badly sales were going. Now that 12 buildings have sold out in 3 years (on a sales pace comparable to BCV I might add), people still insist that sales are going badly.

 

[dvc at last !]

I think TROYWDW has a lot of time !

TROYWDW you done good !

 

[dcfromva]

I brought this old thread back to life. I was wondering how close was the prediction? Is SSR considered sold out now?