SSR, AKV, or something else?

[Yinn]

After my 3rd tour, I started seriously contemplating purchasing DVC. But that has just raised more questions!

About us: We're a family of 5 Disney fans, not fanatics. Over the past 5 years, we've gone 3 times for about a week each time. Over the past 10, we've gone 4 times. Over the past 15, we've gone 6 times. So the frequency is going up, but it would be safe to say we'd at least visit every other year and would look to rent out (or bank) the years we don't. Our typical time frames for going would be the week before Easter, or the week before Labor Day. How's the demand during these two times? I know the parks tend to get slower around this time, but not if the DVC demand drops as well.

Financially, I'm doing my research and my main competitor would be AoA where we primarily stay. To get something comparable (ie, 2 baths, 2 real beds) we'd be relegated to either BLT 1 BR, or 2 BR every where else. That means we'd need 250-300 points. Any higher and I don't think there is a breakeven with how we currently travel. Unfortunately even using CAGR, the maintenance fees and time horizon are the biggest wild cards.

Going with something like BWV, OKW, or BRV would reduce the risk due to shorter contracts; but they come in slightly under the breakeven when the contract expires. Surprisingly VGF, PBV, CCV would be able to breakeven and even comes in as a deal; but that's a heavy assumption that the maintenance dues carry their current CAGRs (2.8%, 3.0%, 3.5%, 2.3% respectively). Part of me suspects those numbers are lower because they're so new.

We think AK 2 BR lockout and BLT 1 BR would probably be the most comparable to what we'd get with AoA in terms of what's important to us. We acknowledge there'd be gains and losses in various areas; but we feel that's where the bulk of our stay would be - regardless of where we bought. With 10 Value 2BR LO, 30 Standard BLT 1 BR, and 121 AK 2 BR overall, we think we should be ok. Is that a relatively safe assumption?

So here's the dilemma. I fully acknowledge that SSR is the undisputed value king and seems to never have an availability issue, but we don't really have a huge desire to stay at SSR. But in comparing them to AK, they're expiring in similar time frames with similar purchase ranges. SSR being $1.00/pt for maintenance and a history of lower increases offers a lot of value - but will it jump up with the refurbishment? Alternatively, I imagine vet bills for giraffe's add up as they age right? If history holds we'd technically be able to buy more points at SSR - 300 vs 250 at AK for the same total cost. So would that be a better option, despite our primary stays to open up some other resorts to be able to book?

**We would love to buy BWV or BCV as our optimal resort, but that math will never work out for us. The poly would be great if they had more than studios or slept 5.





and it seems to breakeven with the way we travel (We're AoA people) we'd be looking at some of the more value based DVCs (SSR) or roll the dice on a long contract and hope the CAGR holds for others (ie, VGF, PBV, CCV)

 

[bwvBound]

Alternatively, I imagine vet bills for giraffe's add up as they age right?

Sorry, I’ve got nothing intelligent to add to your detailed analysis and thoughts. Just gotta show some LOVE for the thought quoted above. This has to be the most uniquely adorable line item in the evaluations.

FWIW, the search for 2 bathrooms and two real beds w/out being forced into 2BR DVC units is key. If there is only one location and unit type in the entire DVC system that meets your needs then you might often face disappointment. (I’ve never booked BLT and am not aware of their 2 bath / 2 real bed layout. Taking your word for it.)

Your search, overall, leaves me thinking that DVC might not be best for you given the close race with AoA unless you desired the in-room kitchen and laundry facilities. But this is only one impression from reading one post.

Our own purchase journey spanned 6 years of deliberation, two tours and lots of time researching. Our first tour informed us that “timeshare sounds cool ... but DVC isn’t the best answer for us at this time.” From that position, we researched and purchased a different timeshare that we dearly love and use many times every year. We didn’t circle back to DVC until it became a necessity for work (supporting a tech conference).

Gotta run ... to feed and care for my horses which are, indeed, racking up some vet bills as they age. WELCOME to the Disboards! You’ll make the right decisions! Enjoy your research and discovery!

 

[kniquy]

Just some thoughts on your comments

Our typical time frames for going would be the week before Easter, or the week before Labor Day. How's the demand during these two times? I know the parks tend to get slower around this time, but not if the DVC demand drops as well.

The week before easter is pretty busy at the parks and more point intense compared to other times of the year, but it is part of the slower DVC time. Labor Day is also a slower time as most kids are in school, but as you can see with this week it is in the midst of hurricane season.

we'd be relegated to either BLT 1 BR, or 2 BR every where else. That means we'd need 250-300 points.

If you plan on every other year trips then you actually need 1/2 that amount of points. So with banking or borrowing you would really only need to purchase about 150 point contract. But you are also looking at BLT which is very point expensive, but has its perks of being walkable to MK. I would look at the Davids DVC rental website. They have a great at a glance way of looking at all the resorts, room types and point cost. You can get into an AK for much cheaper.

Going with something like BWV, OKW, or BRV would reduce the risk due to shorter contracts;

The shorter contract could work against you if you are a younger family and plan to travel to WDW for the foreseeable future. Or if you needed to sell they will likely reach a tipping point where they start losing value, whereas the longer contracts if you needed to sell in 20 years would still have some life and hopefully some considerable value left.

The poly would be great if they had more than studios or slept 5.

The poly does sleep 5, but you have to have kids who want to share a bed. That can become an issue as kids get older.

For an economic purchase to accommodate your family of 5 i would look at AK and OKW-extended. SSR is a great option for extra savings but when you really look at the difference in MF it isn't a huge difference in the grand scheme of things. AK - kidani has great 2BR which have 3 full bathrooms - the lock offs at Jambo only have 2. The AK and OKW 1BR do sleep 5 (with 5 actual sleeping surfaces) so that might be a viable option where as SSR 1 BR only sleep 4.

There is a lot to consider with a purchase. The way I when about my purchase decision process was to start with my budget, then i narrowed down to the resorts where I could afford the most points - that led me to SSR, OKW and AK. I really didn't want SSR having stayed there and the 1BR only fitting 4. We decided on the unique theming of AK. We wanted to stay every other year getting a 1 BR so we bought a 120 pt AK contract.

 

[dez1978]

I thought Poly does sleep 5. 2 real beds and a pull down twin.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I thought Poly does sleep 5. 2 real beds and a pull down twin.

Not two real beds, no.

With 10 Value 2BR LO, 30 Standard BLT 1 BR, and 121 AK 2 BR overall, we think we should be ok. Is that a relatively safe assumption?

Not necessarily?

You cannot rely on getting AKV Value reliably, in any season. They are competitive at 11 months. You need to be sure you can cover for a Standard or Savannah, even at 11 months.

The BLT 1BR Standard is an easier "get" at 11 months, but at 7 months, again, it is best not to rely on Standard. In general, having points for BLT LV is a good idea.

Across the board, 1BRs are easier to get at 7 months, but not the absolute cheapest ones (AKV Value, BLT Standard, BWV Standard).

 

[Yinn]

Your search, overall, leaves me thinking that DVC might not be best for you given the close race with AoA unless you desired the in-room kitchen and laundry facilities. But this is only one impression from reading one post.

That's the debate. If we're happy with it so far, why bother? The answer lies in what the SO stated when we booked our last trip. "One of these days, I'd like to stay at a resort on the monorail" followed by "Animal Kingdom might be nice too". That's when I decided, I may only break even but if we do stay here and there elsewhere then that'd be the perk/gain if you will.

I thought Poly does sleep 5. 2 real beds and a pull down twin.

I was basing it off of DVC Info, which shows it has a sofa bed in the picture and stated in the description:
"The Deluxe Studio features one queen-size bed, one queen-size sleeper sofa, and one pull-down bunk-size bed." For a lot of the other ones it would state one queen-size sleeper sofa, or 2 queen bed.

If it does have 5 real, that would be a good option. It has a longer contract still, and lacks 2 baths and a kitchen, but it is a resort we like. We'd probably still stay at AK, but it'd be a - wouldn't be the worst thing if we couldn't get another location. Plus it'd save us 100 points for the following year.

The week before easter is pretty busy at the parks and more point intense compared to other times of the year, but it is part of the slower DVC time. Labor Day is also a slower time as most kids are in school, but as you can see with this week it is in the midst of hurricane season.

Tell me about it! We just got back. But it seems to be a hurricane every year, and I've never really been impacted. It's also a bit nostalgic as that was always the year my parents took me when I was a kid. (I wish they bought a DVC!)

If you plan on every other year trips then you actually need 1/2 that amount of points. So with banking or borrowing you would really only need to purchase about 150 point contract. But you are also looking at BLT which is very point expensive, but has its perks of being walkable to MK. I would look at the Davids DVC rental website. They have a great at a glance way of looking at all the resorts, room types and point cost. You can get into an AK for much cheaper.

We would probably look to rent out the years we don't go or bank them. One reason is that smaller points = more expensive per point. The other is we'd like to be able to go experience some other resorts every now and then. If we can get 1 or 2 trips where we managed to rent out say 150 points last year to cover dues, and then still bank 100 for next year to splurge.

For an economic purchase to accommodate your family of 5 i would look at AK and OKW-extended. SSR is a great option for extra savings but when you really look at the difference in MF it isn't a huge difference in the grand scheme of things. AK - kidani has great 2BR which have 3 full bathrooms - the lock offs at Jambo only have 2. The AK and OKW 1BR do sleep 5 (with 5 actual sleeping surfaces) so that might be a viable option where as SSR 1 BR only sleep 4.

There is a lot to consider with a purchase. The way I when about my purchase decision process was to start with my budget, then i narrowed down to the resorts where I could afford the most points - that led me to SSR, OKW and AK. I really didn't want SSR having stayed there and the 1BR only fitting 4. We decided on the unique theming of AK. We wanted to stay every other year getting a 1 BR so we bought a 120 pt AK contract.

Thanks!!

 

[skippytx]

What happens to your numbers if you consider renting DVC points? Our first trip was to an AoA Family suite which we liked. Pricing went up the next year and we realized we could rent points for not much more than the AoA family suite and get a 1bed at BLT.

We go more often than you, so we ended up buying into DVC. You might not go as often as you think you might in the future, so even if renting points is a little bit more expensive, you're not tying up all the capital into DVC and maintaining vacation flexibility.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

We would probably look to rent out the years we don't go or bank them. One reason is that smaller points = more expensive per point. The other is we'd like to be able to go experience some other resorts every now and then. If we can get 1 or 2 trips where we managed to rent out say 150 points last year to cover dues, and then still bank 100 for next year to splurge.
Thanks!!

The price per point difference in 150 point vs 250 point contracts isn't necessarily going to be that much if anything with negotiations or just the right contract. ie, don't get hung up on an extra couple of dollar And IMO getting the extra points with a plan to rent isn't without risk. Purchasing 1/2 the points you need and using banking or borrowing for every other year stays is a very viable plan.

A couple other thoughts from the posts. Both BLT and AKV-Kidani 1BR's have the same configuration - a king bed, a queen sleeper sofa and a single sleeper chair and 2 full bathrooms. Poly sleeps 5 in the studios with a queen bed, a queen sleeper sofa and a bunk size murphy bed plus it has the split bathroom with 2 showers, 2 sinks but 1 toilet.
The expectation is that as each resort has it's full refurb that they will get the pull down murphy bed/sofa to replace the fold up sleeper sofa.

The times you visit are on the relatively easy time to book outside of your home resort. And if you are planning on 1BR's or 2BR's you could probably purchase on the economical end and be happy with getting most places. I do still suggest buying someplace you wouldn't mind staying if you didn't have to be if just before easter and the week before labor day are the norms then odds are you'd probably rarely or never have to stay at your home resort if you did not want to with booking 1 and 2BR's. Even a number of studios would likely be options.

But don't purchase to book the cheapest accommodations. Lots of DVC members are similar minded and the AKV values and BLT standards book up quickly. Buying with the plan to book those will lead to some disappointments.

 

[Yinn]

What happens to your numbers if you consider renting DVC points? Our first trip was to an AoA Family suite which we liked. Pricing went up the next year and we realized we could rent points for not much more than the AoA family suite and get a 1bed at BLT.

We go more often than you, so we ended up buying into DVC. You might not go as often as you think you might in the future, so even if renting points is a little bit more expensive, you're not tying up all the capital into DVC and maintaining vacation flexibility.

I considered it both ways. Renting from DVC owners, as well as renting out to DVC owners. In general, it's better to be on the owning end.

As an example, I looked into renting DVC a couple years back, I think then it was around $13/pt. This last time it was $18/pt; which changes the financials quite drastically. The DVC Rental market has increased 9-10% YoY. It has to level off but in my calculations I used a 5% increase per year to renting from. 0% increase per year renting to. Essentially being a pessimist and favoring a rental situation. Even in this situation, it's cheaper to own in the long run for the following resorts: AK, SSR, VGF, PBV, CCV. The situation of renting DVC mixed with AoA would make sense if 1) We didn't rent out the years we didn't go. Or 2) We reduced our frequency to once every 5 years.

A couple other thoughts from the posts. Both BLT and AKV-Kidani 1BR's have the same configuration - a king bed, a queen sleeper sofa and a single sleeper chair and 2 full bathrooms. Poly sleeps 5 in the studios with a queen bed, a queen sleeper sofa and a bunk size murphy bed plus it has the split bathroom with 2 showers, 2 sinks but 1 toilet.
The expectation is that as each resort has it's full refurb that they will get the pull down murphy bed/sofa to replace the fold up sleeper sofa.

This is helpful to know, thank you! I think this sways us even more into the AKV category since we'd be able to fall back on a 1 BR if needed - exactly what you go on to say as a just in case. It seems when I looked it up, I only saw Jambo's config.

But don't purchase to book the cheapest accommodations. Lots of DVC members are similar minded and the AKV values and BLT standards book up quickly. Buying with the plan to book those will lead to some disappointments.

That's kind of what we're factoring too. I did a lookup of availability 7 months out, but obviously that doesn't match 1:1 to when I'd be going. But 5 months out, there was still availability on AK 2 BR Standard so I had figured a Standard 2BR at AK would have been ok since there's 130+ rooms available (@255pts) but it's seeming as if that's too much of an assumption. The 1BR tip does help though, as even at 250 (regardless of whether I drop it down to 125 or not); it opens up an additional 175 rooms to book.

 

[skippytx]

What's "the long run"? Many DVC owners will not own their contract until it expires. Many folks end up selling for various reasons. I like to think I'll own my contract at BLT until it expires in 2060, but in reality I'll probably end up selling when my kids get to be college aged.

 

[Yinn]

What's "the long run"? Many DVC owners will not own their contract until it expires. Many folks end up selling for various reasons. I like to think I'll own my contract at BLT until it expires in 2060, but in reality I'll probably end up selling when my kids get to be college aged.

Mine are still coming out, so the long run is a bit long. I expect the next 10-15 years of going. So estimated about 8-10 visits in that timeframe. Then I factored in a 10 year full break, before resuming at a slower pace for the next 10 years at about 2-3 visits in that timeframe. For longer contracts, I'm factoring in a resumption after those 10 years at my existing frequency. I think that should account for some life changes. While my SO and I would and have visited Disney sans kids; I don't have an expectation of holding this until the end. I do expect to flip it somewhere in the break period to resumption; BUT. It's a big BUT, I can't predict the future of Disney's resale policies. So the calculations have to assume the worst and follow the path of Riviera. That means bringing the contract to my grave..well at least to the reading of my will.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

This is helpful to know, thank you! I think this sways us even more into the AKV category since we'd be able to fall back on a 1 BR if needed - exactly what you go on to say as a just in case. It seems when I looked it up, I only saw Jambo's config.

That's kind of what we're factoring too. I did a lookup of availability 7 months out, but obviously that doesn't match 1:1 to when I'd be going. But 5 months out, there was still availability on AK 2 BR Standard so I had figured a Standard 2BR at AK would have been ok since there's 130+ rooms available (@255pts) but it's seeming as if that's too much of an assumption. The 1BR tip does help though, as even at 250 (regardless of whether I drop it down to 125 or not); it opens up an additional 175 rooms to book.

Since Jambo was converted from existing hotel rooms it did end up with a very different configuration than Kidani.

Buying to book AKV standard is an ok idea. Especially if you'll be booking in the home priority window. Values and Concierge are the ones that go very quickly pretty much year round. I'd bet you'd end up getting a value reservation now and then if you book right when the 11 month window opens but some people have bought points to only cover that and come up short because they are so popular.

 

[Sandisw]

I considered it both ways. Renting from DVC owners, as well as renting out to DVC owners. In general, it's better to be on the owning end.

As an example, I looked into renting DVC a couple years back, I think then it was around $13/pt. This last time it was $18/pt; which changes the financials quite drastically. The DVC Rental market has increased 9-10% YoY. It has to level off but in my calculations I used a 5% increase per year to renting from. 0% increase per year renting to. Essentially being a pessimist and favoring a rental situation. Even in this situation, it's cheaper to own in the long run for the following resorts: AK, SSR, VGF, PBV, CCV. The situation of renting DVC mixed with AoA would make sense if 1) We didn't rent out the years we didn't go. Or 2) We reduced our frequency to once every 5 years.



This is helpful to know, thank you! I think this sways us even more into the AKV category since we'd be able to fall back on a 1 BR if needed - exactly what you go on to say as a just in case. It seems when I looked it up, I only saw Jambo's config.




That's kind of what we're factoring too. I did a lookup of availability 7 months out, but obviously that doesn't match 1:1 to when I'd be going. But 5 months out, there was still availability on AK 2 BR Standard so I had figured a Standard 2BR at AK would have been ok since there's 130+ rooms available (@255pts) but it's seeming as if that's too much of an assumption. The 1BR tip does help though, as even at 250 (regardless of whether I drop it down to 125 or not); it opens up an additional 175 rooms to book.

Where are you looking for availability? Only DVC members have access to the DVC rooms that can be booked on points. The rooms you see on the Disney site for cash reservations is a different set of inventory.

 

[kniquy]

We would probably look to rent out the years we don't go or bank them. One reason is that smaller points = more expensive per point.

Watch out with doing this. Buying more points usually means you are going to take more or longer trips. We bought an AK resale, stayed at Poly loved it and bought a resale contract at Poly. So my justification was that we were keeping the AK contract because it gives us the pre-2016 perks AND we would rent out points to cover MFs. So where are we at right now? We are planning our 2020 trip with the in-laws (getting 2 poly rooms for 8 nights) and already planning a 2021 trip because we will get AP's. So much for renting them out to make money.

So more points in your hand could just really mean more trips. Having extra points is always a good thing though. If you polled many of the members here you would likely find people saying they should have bought more points in the beginning before prices jumped up.

 

[skippytx]

Sounds like you're considering everything. I tend to play a little devils advocate in these threads. Good Luck.

 

[kannons610]

I really didn't want SSR having stayed there and the 1BR only fitting 4.

I have looked at many different sites regarding room occupancy limits. I thought all 1BR, with the exception of one house at AKL, could have a 5th guest over the age of three but no bedding or linens would be provided. Can someone please confirm. Thank you.

 

[mustinjourney]

A couple of thoughts.

You could theoretically get 2 studios at Poly for your family...pretty good chance you get connected rooms -- but at a minimum, you'll at least get rooms that are pretty close together.

Also -- poly studios have two showers and two sinks, so that is very helpful if you're trying to squeeze everyone into just one room. VGF is the same (2 showers and sink areas).

I personally wouldn't get too hung up on what is the best overall value. If you love a particular resort a lot more than another -- then the happiness you'll get from being able to routinely stay there is probably worth the extra money you'll pay to get the home resort priority. Not to mention -- if your plan is to rent the points out -- you'll be able to charge more for renting BCV/VGF/BWV points compared to SSR/OKW.

AKV is a fantastic resort -- but the walk to your room from the lobby (at Kidani) could end up being VERY far. Not to mention -- bus access to everywhere.

If you have children in strollers -- I would highly recommend staying at a monorail resort or a resort you can walk to the parks (e.g., BWV/BCV). Dealing with the strollers on the buses with sleeping kids at the end of the night is not something I ever want to repeat.

 

[kniquy]

I thought all 1BR, with the exception of one house at AKL, could have a 5th guest over the age of three but no bedding or linens would be provided. Can someone please confirm. Thank you.

That is correct but it seems like a real pain to have to worry about bringing bedding for that 5th person.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I have looked at many different sites regarding room occupancy limits. I thought all 1BR, with the exception of one house at AKL, could have a 5th guest over the age of three but no bedding or linens would be provided. Can someone please confirm. Thank you.

CCV also is a hard limit of 4 along with the AKV - Value rooms.

SSR does seem to be getting the under TV murphy bed in the refurb that will provide a 5th sleeping surface in a 1BR.

 

[kannons610]

That is correct but it seems like a real pain to have to worry about bringing bedding for that 5th person.

CCV also is a hard limit of 4 along with the AKV - Value rooms.

SSR does seem to be getting the under TV murphy bed in the refurb that will provide a 5th sleeping surface in a 1BR.

Thank you.