Spreadsheet fun!

[tinkerbellcruiser]

Thanks so much for the spreadsheet!

 

[bumbershoot]

Well I was just trying to humoursly make the point that for the most part these calculations are academic, not reality. Almost none of us would otherwise have spent X amount on Disney hotels every year for the next few decades. So, if we really wouldn't have spent it, then we haven't really "saved" that money by going with DVC. Go out and buy the biggest TV you can find that is on sale and try to convince the spouse that you have "saved" money. I've tried, it doesn't work.

But has she ever used it on you, when she went shopping for clothes, or things for the house, etc? I suspect that TVs aren't her passion, so it's never going to work for her (hubby is the same with computers), but the thought process would work for her with something else.

Ultimately, this is the way I like to look at it:

Regular Dining Plan: You are committing to Disney one sit-down meal per day. You prepay for this, and in return, Disney will give you one "free" Quick-Service meal, and one free snack per day.
Quick Service Dining Plan: You are committing to two quick-service meals per day. You prepay for this, and in return, Disney will give you two "free" snacks per day, plus a resort refill mug for free.
Deluxe Dining Plan: You are committing to Disney two sit-down meals per day. You prepay for this, and in return, Disney will give you one "free" sit-down meal, appetizers for all your meals and two free snacks per day.

I'm madly in love with this way of putting it. Simplifies it tremendously.

And still doesn't work for us! Because the cost of that one sit-down meal is still more than what we would pay out of pocket, since we share and are vegetarian...dagnabit!

 

[SecretPoohLove]

What if you went every other year instead of every year. what is the cash versus DVC break even then?

 

[mathgeek]

As a fellow math geek I applaud this thread. :

Me too!

Loved it all, and I also made a spreadsheet to ease my mind that DVC was the way to go, (and have maintained a running log comparing the investment to the "Rack Rates" I would have paid for the time in "the World") but all us math guys missed the point . . . . . . the reason to buy DVC is the Magic it brings into your life . . . the look on your DW or DH's face when planning the next adventure! Priceless!

I've done this too, and of course what's even more fun is looking at the rack rates we would have paid over spring break! I would never have paid that to stay at BCV, it would have been a trip to the All-Stars at those prices.

But yes, the Disney magic is why we go every year, and why we love our DVC.

 

[disney4metoo]

Youreverydayadam, you are the best! Thanks for doing the spreadsheet and the DP comments (very helpful and easy.)

 

[BeccaG]

This is so awesome. . I wish I had the time to run such numbers. . .

 

[lundve]

I am so showing this to my nerdie DH!!

 

[ILIKEWDW]

Good thread!!!

 

[Dishy24]

Debating on buying into DVC-- plan on calling tomorrow. What is the 40% coupon several of you have mentioned? Any advise prior to my inital call will be greatly appreciated! I have been renting member's points for years & am very aware of how DVC works, etc-- just decided it is now the right time to "take the plung" myself! Thanks!!

 

[gtrist4life]

Great spreadsheet fun indeed! Mucho thanks to youreverydayadam and others who have added comments/info

I think we all can agree the numbers work out favorably*, but I think we also can agree there are many, many variables that change the end results
Where you stay, how long each trip, how many trips per year (or years), etc.

Take our last DVC trip for example, 5 nights Vero Beach, 1 night AKL, Park tickets (2 1 day tix for the kids) - completely throws off the estimated vacation costs.

I think the best line is from Roy Disney in the DVC DVD from a year or two ago. Paraphrasing a bit.... "DVC is a great product. Great products are successful, and DVC has been very succesful".

Peace,
G4L

*Assuming that you would have vacationed yearly or every other year with or without DVC, and that you're not lucky/genius with the stock market

 

[Dman67]

Thanks OP for posting this! It was awesome to see these numbers.

We just got back from a week at SSR (Sun - Fri) and that feeling you get when your checkout bill is only $124 for a week's stay is unbeatable. If we'd have skipped several drinks at "On The Rocks" it would've been a lot less.

 

[Kickapoo Joie Juice]

I also emailed this thread to mathmatically inclined, spreadsheet loving DH

 

[monkeyknuckler]

Thanks for the spreadsheet. At least there's one thing good about dying...I won't be around to see that $7,000/year annual maintenance cost.

 

[Buckeye Fan]

From one math geek to another...what a thread!!!

All kidding aside, thanks for putting this together. I had thrown something together that was much less effort, but even my rough numbers convinced me that if I wanted to continue visiting WDW, this was a no-brainer! Thanks for the time you spent making us all feel good!

 

[tinkerbellcruiser]

Thank you so much for all the time and effort! I just called and got the rates for Christmas week savanna view studio at AKV and was in shock! 570.00 a night, wow. At that rate it would take hardly anytime to break even.

 

[Modeltrf]

Where was this thread when I was thinking of buying!

I had to do all the heavy lifting on my own. It would of been nice to just read and decide. Either way, I know I made the right decision.

 

[ohtarabell]

Did you put taxes into the calculation for the paid stays? This is something we don't pay but cash guests do. I think it is well over 10%.

 

[carolinadj]

Hubby's a math geek but hasn't put a pencil to buying more points. Can't wait to tell him about this thread. THANKS SO MUCH for doing all the work for us!

 

[YourEveryDayAdam]

Did you put taxes into the calculation for the paid stays? This is something we don't pay but cash guests do. I think it is well over 10%.

Nope. Those figures don't include taxes on the cash stays. So that just tilts the numbers even more in favor of DVC.

 

[ValpoCory]

So, i'm a math geek.

Just looking at the basic numbers, I knew DVC was far worth the cost of ownership. However, reading these boards, there are lots of people out there that use arguments like "well, if you finance it's not worth it." or "There are always coupons to use to get a discount."

So I made a spreadsheet to see just how true (or untrue) these claims were. The numbers prove that, by far, buying DVC (even when you pay full price, finance it, and no incentives) is a MUCH better value.

Just to explain the numbers: I assumed that you paid $112 per point (current retail price). No incentives on that cost. I did it based on 182 points (one week, magic kingdom view studio at Bay Lake Towers in September). I also checked the rack rate for the same room at the same time of year: $2,953 for a week.

So the numbers I ran were: Total cost (including annual dues) if you paid cash and didn't finance it for the full life of the contract. Total cost if you financed it for 10 years at Disney's standard financing rate (14.25%). I also ran the cash cost for the same time. I assumed a 5% annual increase in both annual dues and the cash rate for the room.

Here is the spreadsheet:

Break-even point on cash rate vs. non-financed purchase: 7 years
Break-even point on cash rate vs. financed purchase: 12 years
Break-even point on 40% discounted cash rate vs. non-financed: 14 years
Break-even point on 40% discounted cash rate vs financed: 21 years

Best case (non-financed, full rack rate cash) DVC savings over the life of the contract: $457,988.73
Worst case (financed, 40% discount cash rate) DVC savings over the life of the contract: $192,674.57

So, even if you financed DVC at the worst disney rate and were somehow able to score a 40% discount code for every annual visit, you will still save almost $200,000 with DVC over the 50 year life of the contract.

It's worth it assuming you would be going to the expensive Luxury hotels if you were not a DVC member, and assuming you would vacation that much to Disney or other DVC destinations if you were not a DVC member.

That's a couple of big assumptions.