Is there anything at all to back this up? People keep stating this like its a fact, yet every quarter they are reporting record revenues due to higher attendance and higher per guest spending (according to the conference calls at the earnings release).
I don't think anyone here is suggesting that less people are visiting the parks overall as a result of higher prices. The argument that is being made (and IMHO, one that was pretty well articulated by oddman) is that less and less
middle class folks can afford the prices being charged. Disney is thriving, however, as the more affluent demographics are lapping up what is currently being dished out (Poly bungalows, GF DVC, WL Cabins, $200 special ticketed events, etc.), thus filling the void with a clientele having significantly deeper pockets. Obviously, Disney's decision to raise prices and shift focus from the middle class to the upper-middle class and above is paying off, as attendance, profits, etc. have never been higher as you have pointed out. I don't believe that attendance and profits are up because more middleclass families with an average household income of $52K and ~$9K in credit card debt are visiting Lake Buena Vista.
Asking for "hard proof" of this is a bit of a stretch, as you know such information is not available. However, it's not rocket science. Rather, this is very basic microeconomics at play:
- Prices have been raised significantly over the past decade.
- Median household incomes have remained essentially flat over that same period of time.
- Conclusion: Many middleclass households that could once afford a Disney vacation in 2005 no longer can (or are spending less days, staying offsite, etc.), because they are making marginally more money today as compared to 10 years ago, yet the costs have in many instances doubled, resulting in a barrier to entry.
I'm not suggesting that Disney has totally abandoned the middle-class, as it still represents a significant piece of the puzzle. However, it's plain as day (to me at least) that a shift is in full effect. Look at "
Free Dining" - a program definitely targeted to the average, middle-class family. In recent years, dates have become more and more limited, more restrictions have been put in place, etc. There is some speculation that "Free Dining" may go by the wayside completely in the next few years. If that happens, IMO, that's all the proof I need to show that the middleclass has officially been put on the back burner. Having said that, all that it will take to reverse the trend is another economic downturn, at which point, the average Joe will be welcomed back by Mr. Iger with open arms (provided that they're willing to pay rack-rate at Pop Century for their Free Dining).