Speculation on resale prices in an early post-pandemic world

[prouddaddycdn]

i think we are talking to cross purposes here. I wasn't talking about buying anything direct at all. I am strictly dealing with resale.

As for summer booking - if I want a studio at BWV in late August, despite being a slow season, I have found that I may get my waitlist through or maybe not. It has been 50-50 to date so that finally prompted me to buy there so I could get the 11 month window.

If the OP doesn't care where they stay, then yes, something is always available in summer but I would assume that the OP may want to stay somewhere specific or at their home resort. In these cases, timeframe matters.

 

[Chol]

What did you decide to make an offer on, and what convinced you?

We had already made up our mind to buy DVC as it will work for us so it was just a matter of when. I took the advice of some members here that timing the market (any market) is not easy and if you see a contract you like and you want to buy then go for it.

Our next planned travel date, Covid-willing, is December 2021. We want a week on property and have credit from a DVC rental store for a few nights but not all 7. I was eying this contract that would give us 4 nights at AKV, points coming in 2021. I figured instead of renting more points we would put in an offer and leave plenty of time to have the sale clear and points come in for a booking window for our travel dates. Like @prouddaddycdn mentioned, if we left it late we may only clear the sale past an ideal booking window. It was also a perfect amount of points to fill that 4 night gap and had been sitting there a while so we got a few points off the asking price. If we can't travel by Dec next year, we'll bank them and hope we can at least get to Orlando or Hawaii the follow year to use them. If can travel then we'll be experiencing BLT as well and have that as our 2nd home resort or buy additional AKV points to give us 7 nights total we want

 

[sethschroeder]

I took the advice of some members here that timing the market (any market) is not easy and if you see a contract you like and you want to buy then go for it.

Look at historical pricing trends. Prices go up very slowly where as prices could drop fairly quickly if things are bad.

So if you can steal a deal right now go for it but IMO there is not any real downside of waiting. Possibly you pay an extra $2-3 for the points? At the same time you could find a loaded contract next year and have not paid for the MFs this year which would easily offset that pricing. (Since you normally don't pay MFs on previously banked points)

 

[Prince John Robin Hood]

One thing I should have added previously is that I'm expecting cash prices to be quite good for at least 18-24 months. If I buy a stripped contract without points until 2022 I can always rent points or book a cash room in 2021.

 

[sethschroeder]

Eh stripped contracts are not normally discounted enough to worry about. You would need to save like $10-$13/point to make it worth it.

Flip side getting a loaded contract is almost always worth it since the points are so undervalued compared to that stripped contract. You can then rent out the points to make back the money.

Just have to do the math.

 

[Prince John Robin Hood]

True, renting out the points should be easy enough and there is no pressure to get a certain $ per point if I get the contract at a good price. Giving the points to family in the U.S. is always a possibility too.

 

[sethschroeder]

True, renting out the points should be easy enough and there is no pressure to get a certain $ per point if I get the contract at a good price. Giving the points to family in the U.S. is always a possibility too.

Think about it this way if you get a loaded contract you can likely rent it out for $10/point so in theory you are reducing the price by $20/point (then account for MFs but I would just negotiate those out as "we can't use them since we live in Canada")

 

[lovethesun12]

Think about it this way if you get a loaded contract you can likely rent it out for $10/point so in theory you are reducing the price by $20/point (then account for MFs but I would just negotiate those out as "we can't use them since we live in Canada")

I guess this is why I would prefer stripped. While I could rent points, the market seems uncertain and by the time you get the contract, find a renter, and figure out how to pay/declare taxes in two countries, it seems like a lot of work for not a ton of savings.

 

[sethschroeder]

I guess this is why I would prefer stripped. While I could rent points, the market seems uncertain and by the time you get the contract, find a renter, and figure out how to pay/declare taxes in two countries, it seems like a lot of work for not a ton of savings.

I mean it's dead easy to get someone at $12/point right now.

As far as taxes you could but I suspect 99% of people don't declare anything on a one off rental. Already have to do my taxes so adding something like that is minimal.

It's fine to do whatever you would prefer just pointing it out.

Just adding that you will see normally give more information that really required. I personally just think in today's world you should have all the information then discount or ignore aspects if its not useful to you.

 

[lovethesun12]

I mean it's dead easy to get someone at $12/point right now.

As far as taxes you could but I suspect 99% of people don't declare anything on a one off rental. Already have to do my taxes so adding something like that is minimal.

It's fine to do whatever you would prefer just pointing it out.

Just adding that you will see normally give more information that really required. I personally just think in today's world you should have all the information then discount or ignore aspects if its not useful to you.

Awesome it’s that easy. I was considering looking into renting my points instead of banking this year (if necessary) and wasn’t sure how difficult it would be.

I’d have to be in the 1% that pay taxes or I wouldn’t sleep at night, lol. I’ve tried figuring it out but it’s been a lot of work trying to determine what to file where. If I knew for certain I could just add it to my income for my taxes here I’d do it. If I had to file in the US, that’s a whole different ballgame because I would have to figure out how to actually file taxes in the US as a non-resident.

After trying to figure out everything I have to I usually just get so overwhelmed I’m like meh I’ll just bank the points. Maybe one day I’ll wrap my head around it all.

 

[sethschroeder]

I’d have to be in the 1% that pay taxes or I wouldn’t sleep at night, lol. I’ve tried figuring it out but it’s been a lot of work trying to determine what to file where. If I knew for certain I could just add it to my income for my taxes here I’d do it. If I had to file in the US, that’s a whole different ballgame because I would have to figure out how to actually file taxes in the US as a non-resident.

Not a legal expert but have found this.

https://www.snowbirdadvisor.ca/tax-legal-tips-canadian-snowbirds-who-rent-out-their-us-property
Also might not exactly apply or might apply not sure haha.

 

[cometdad2010]

It's not a provable thing. But the fact is that out of nowhere guides started telling people there was a waitlist for certain resorts that never have waitlists, and then within a couple days those resorts got ROFR'd. As I pointed out in another thread, Disney's typical stream of contract acquisition via foreclosure and auction has currently dried up for reasons that aren't clear. There are no Disney DVC contracts up for foreclosure auction in the next month, that is unusual. So in the interim this is the only way to acquire points.

Just curious -- I'm just thinking out loud -- but I know some states have a moratorium on evictions/foreclosures. I wonder if since in some ways DVC is treated more as a real estate deed than a prepaid vacation plan with an expiration date... it falls under those guidelines preventing foreclosures?

 

[CastAStone]

Just curious -- I'm just thinking out loud -- but I know some states have a moratorium on evictions/foreclosures. I wonder if since in some ways DVC is treated more as a real estate deed than a prepaid vacation plan with an expiration date... it falls under those guidelines preventing foreclosures?

It is not protected, I looked into that out of my own curiosity. But I think the banks might be treating it like it is protected in that they just suspended foreclosures period.