Speculation on resale prices in an early post-pandemic world

Chol

Earning My Ears
Joined
Feb 19, 2020
I'm looking at resale as an international visitor. Do I buy now while there are deals to be had but no idea about when I can travel, or wait for early post-pandemic world e.g. successful vaccine developed, and buy then. Do u think there would there still be some good deals around?
 

Royal Consort

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jan 14, 2012
I'm looking at resale as an international visitor. Do I buy now while there are deals to be had but no idea about when I can travel, or wait for early post-pandemic world e.g. successful vaccine developed, and buy then. Do u think there would there still be some good deals around?
I am in Australia and already a DVC member but using the money from cancelled trips this year to add on smaller contracts at other home resorts. My perspective is that pandemics don't last forever. Worst case: I transfer expiring points into RCI for a year or two. When this is all over I have vacations taken care of and resume normal Disney trips. I would be paying the same price or more anyway.

Will there be good deals after a vaccine? Hard to say. Depends on how long this recession continues until successful treatments are available and how quickly the recovery occurs. So far DVC prices have held up well with some good deals at specific resorts but no bargain basement stuff. Speculation is there may be deals at the end of the year when annual dues are sent out but I think whether this happens or not is also dependent on an effective treatment/vaccine.

TL;DR: We just don't know. If you find a contract you are happy with, go for it. If uncertain, DVC will be there post-pandemic too.
 
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  • Chol

    Earning My Ears
    Joined
    Feb 19, 2020
    Thanks I'm an Aussie too, from Brisvegas. I have the same perspective as you. When are annual dues sent out? I'm in no hurry right now but happy to look out for any good deals floating around. Im also interested in other Aussies that have DVC, what time of year do you usually travel and do you take kids?
     

    Royal Consort

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jan 14, 2012
    Annual dues are out at the end of the year and due in January. Unless you have a US account, these need to be paid in full at the time rather than monthly.

    We do an Asian Disney trip each year in approx April/May (dont use DVC points) and then fly to Disneyland in Anaheim for 4-5 nights and Walt Disney World for two weeks each Oct-Nov. We will usually throw in a Disney cruise there too. We are a childless couple.

    PS: the contracts I've been buying have been stripped meaning that there are no current points I have to deal with. I do have points coming in September and October which I can bank meaning I would have until August and Sept 2022 to use them. I am confident the world will look different by then. So if you're looking, a stripped contract (which is usually cheaper) could be a good way to go.
     
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    Cyberc1978

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jul 19, 2016
    I'm looking at resale as an international visitor. Do I buy now while there are deals to be had but no idea about when I can travel, or wait for early post-pandemic world e.g. successful vaccine developed, and buy then. Do u think there would there still be some good deals around?
    Im international too, from Europe.

    I added on at VGF because of the good deal I got $145 almost full loaded. If your plan is to visit post pandemic on a regular basis then I would buy.

    Right now there is a potential for some good deals to be made however we have just started to see Disney resuming their ROFR.

    There is a risk that you are too late for the party but on the other hand if the pandemic continues and the economy continue to worsen I don’t see Disney taking that many contracts and maybe the ROFR will stop for a while again.
     

    Kylie_1504

    Earning My Ears
    Joined
    Apr 30, 2020
    I’m from Australia too and currently putting in offers for my first contract. Was trying to get in on Disney not taking any on ROFR but it seems they have started up again.
    I’m not looking for fully loaded ones as I don’t think we will be able to utilize the points for a while. But can’t wait to head back.
     

    lovethesun12

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jul 5, 2017
    I'm looking at resale as an international visitor. Do I buy now while there are deals to be had but no idea about when I can travel, or wait for early post-pandemic world e.g. successful vaccine developed, and buy then. Do u think there would there still be some good deals around?
    I’m international and recently bought maybe 1/4 of the points I plan to purchase, but I’m regretting even that amount, and not really just because of the pandemic. I wish I waited until December or January to purchase.

    All I can say is the doubts you have now will probably still be there through the whole purchasing process if your experience is like mine. BUT I do tend to overthink things I admit :)

    I’m definitely waiting on purchasing the rest of my points, and I don’t really care if prices increase because I’m okay paying a few extra thousand to be happy with the decision.
     

    MICKIMINI

    Love the Mouse!
    Joined
    Sep 6, 2003
    IMO I would not let the threat of DVC taking a contract in ROFR influence you if you decide to make an offer even in a non-pandemic world. If you can negotiate an acceptable offer that a seller is willing to take then go for it. The threat is overrated IMO to convince buyers to pay more. I've been watching for 25 years and on contract #10, 8 resale.

    Secondly, buy when it is good timing for you. Deals can be found, you just have to know what a good deal is and that comes with self education, reading the ROFR thread and generally getting comfortable with DVC.

    Good luck!
     

    Cyberc1978

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jul 19, 2016
    Not so fast.

    They took a couple random contracts from prices all over. There was a wait list supposedly at SSR as an example.
    random or not. They went from 0 to god knows how many in a split of a sec.

    we only knows of a handful and hopefully that’s all that it is.

    let’s see what the future brings.
     

    3 DD love princesses

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Aug 15, 2015
    I’d say If it’s money you have saved to buy and it’s not affecting anything else in life then buy when you find the right contract. No one knows what the prices will do just like the stock market. No one expected it to drop and then climb back up so quickly.
     

    iflyjetzzz

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Nov 27, 2019
    random or not. They went from 0 to god knows how many in a split of a sec.

    we only knows of a handful and hopefully that’s all that it is.

    let’s see what the future brings.
    We know they took half a dozen of DVC Store's ROFRs and a bit more than half a dozen of Fidelity's. At the end of last week.
    Occam's Razor would suggest that they've taken more ROFRs from other sales.

    It appears that all ROFRs were for SSR and OKW.

    Are they back in the market strong? Probably not; looks like they're doing that to fill orders on their waitlist.
     

    sethschroeder

    Registered
    Joined
    Feb 24, 2013
    random or not. They went from 0 to god knows how many in a split of a sec.

    we only knows of a handful and hopefully that’s all that it is.

    let’s see what the future brings.
    Ya I am fine waiting which is why I am not reading in to a few ROFRs taken back.
     

    poofyo101

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Aug 13, 2019
    We know they took half a dozen of DVC Store's ROFRs and a bit more than half a dozen of Fidelity's. At the end of last week.
    Occam's Razor would suggest that they've taken more ROFRs from other sales.

    It appears that all ROFRs were for SSR and OKW.

    Are they back in the market strong? Probably not; looks like they're doing that to fill orders on their waitlist.
    VGF was bought back and so was AKV
     

    Aussie RJ

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    May 19, 2017
    Thanks I'm an Aussie too, from Brisvegas. I have the same perspective as you. When are annual dues sent out? I'm in no hurry right now but happy to look out for any good deals floating around. Im also interested in other Aussies that have DVC, what time of year do you usually travel and do you take kids?
    We’re from Sydney. Family of 4, travel every September school holidays and Christmas into January. Just like @Royal Consort, I’ve used the trip refunds from this years plans to make offers on resale contracts which will top up what we already own. Does sound a bit silly that we are investing in a timeshare during a time when you can’t travel. But what the hell.. it’s almost become a habit.
     

    Royal Consort

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jan 14, 2012
    OK, thanks. My guess is that DVC is able to sell everything fairly quickly that they're buying on ROFR.

    I would not expect a VGC to get past ROFR right now.
    Had a full price offer accepted on a small VGC contract and am anticipating this will pass as if Disney ROFR'd it, they wouldn't make much from it.
     

    iflyjetzzz

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Nov 27, 2019
    Had a full price offer accepted on a small VGC contract and am anticipating this will pass as if Disney ROFR'd it, they wouldn't make much from it.
    That will be interesting to watch, as I've read that DVC won't even allow prospective buyers to waitlist for VGC anymore due to the large number of people on the waitlist.
     

    limace

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jan 31, 2007
    That will be interesting to watch, as I've read that DVC won't even allow prospective buyers to waitlist for VGC anymore due to the large number of people on the waitlist.
    That’s not new-been that way for years and contracts have passed.
     

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