I think rope drop crowds will be a wash. I see it as 3 groups of people:
1) Those who won't get up early no matter what
2) Those who get up early just to get FP
3) Those who get up early no matter what
If the group 2 folks have mid morning/early afternoon FP+ booked, will ALL of them still come to rope drop? I am willing to bet a percentage of those folks won't do rope drop any more.
If you want to ride with minimal waits, couldn't get a FP+ in advance, and are willing to get up early to do it, then you have a new group of folks coming in at RD. I think this new group will probably be about the same size as the folks in the group mentioned above who won't see the value in coming for RD anymore, now that they have their FP+ booked.
Again, only time will tell, once it rolls out and people learn how to use it.
I would do Rope Drop at a different park, because I have a 2 year old who will get me up regardless.
Don't forget the other perk that is supposed to be part of the MyMagic+ FP+ suite of benefits - Availability to switch on the fly throughout the day. If you are really enjoying your meal at Be Our Guest - and your FP+ reservation for Splash Mountain is coming up, you can simple go to the app, and rebook a ride for later in the day. This is a nice plan.
BUT, if all the ride times are gobbled up early in the day by everyone on their phones getting extra FP (beyond their scheduled) that flexibility is gone! That flexibility is a key component of this new system (and I don't see it as efficient).
Now what happens to the Splash Mountain FP that someone cancels a half hour in advance of ride time? That could go to WillAustin as a bonus FP because he is such a good customer, and he just happens to be wandering over to Space Mountain, and that line is too long. I hope he can hear those text message rings in the park, otherwise he will miss that golden opportunity.
Meanwhile, I will be hanging out at Starbucks enjoying the theming.
I'm sure there will still be limits. You get 4 prebooked FPs, then once you get in the parks you can get more at a rate of every 2 hours or when your window for the next one opens up (the same as it is now). Although, maybe they'll change it so it's every 2 hours OR whenever you USE your current FP, which would encourage people to actually use them. The "when the window opens" thing seems fairly obsolete (for people with smartphones) if you can book your next FP while waiting in line for your current one.
I can also see them making "bonus" FPs more fluid. You get "dinged" for a bonus FP, but the actual parameters aren't defined. ie. you can choose from a pool of available FPs whenever you next check your phone, instead of "use this Space Mountain FP in 30 minutes or you'll lose it".
It would also make more sense to have wandering CMs allot the "bonus" FPs at their leisure with handheld devices than actually "push notify" random people.
If Disney's concern was the "uberuser" they actually could have controlled that very easily under the old (current) system.
I don't think that's their intent at all. Although it may be a byproduct.
There is still the same amount of people in the park and the same amount of rides I don't think the wait times will change that much. Disneys aim is to get people out of the line and into the stores so their system being designed to make lines longer doesnt make any sense
The TOTAL wait time may not change, but the standby wait time very well could. My enjoyment would definitely decrease, if I could only get 4- 20 minute waits, and the other 10 attractions I experienced that day boasted 40+ minute waits.
To some degree, it depends on how many attractions they "add" FP too. If they left it with most of the attractions still being without, then the standby lines at those attractions wouldn't change. If they "add" FP to everything, then it may become common to wait for 20 minutes during less crowded times of day at It's a Small World, just because Disney encouraged a bunch of people to take FPs for it.
I definitely think that's a bit far fetched though, because there will be some attractions that people just don't like. Maybe they'll be able to con some first time goers to go see Hall of Presidents once, but it's very unlikely that they'll book a repeat FP.
I think how they manage the alerts will be very interesting. I doubt they would penalize you for past performance though, but they might offer you more early morning opportunities if they see you have a RD history.
I have read somewhere (maybe the OP of this thread) that indicated that if you don't use a FP without canceling, you may be restricted from booking more that day.
I doubt they'll make it so someone is banned from any more FPs in a day because they've already reached a numerical limit. FP has always been controlled by time, and I doubt they'll change that. It's not the "uber user's" fault that a newcomer didn't hop on their phone right at 5:55 when their window opened up. If uber-user's window opens up at 6pm, why should Disney penalize them and not give them access to a Space Mountain FP that just got canceled?
I know, but if the system is going to dole out some extra opportunities day of, and they see for the past bazillion park visits you are usually inside the park at opening, you might get an alert for earlier bonuses (not the planned ones), like preferred seating at an early show or an extra fp or something.
I could even see it happening prior to day of. Suppose your in one park on a Tuesday night, the system anticipates big crowds over at MK the next day and sends an alert offering some special bonus passes for soarin to be used before 10:00 am Wednesday or something to divert some people into Epcot the next day.
Hopefully they'll find more flexible people to offer this to than me. Because of the way Disney is setting this system up, they want to be able to move crowds around to suit THEIR needs. But making people make ADRs 180 days out and ride reservations (probably) 60 days out means that I'm pretty much sticking with the park I have chosen.
I'm very curiuos to see how this unfolds. I still feel like they have taken away what I used to get freely, with little effort, and now want to dole it out in front of me in little bits like a carrot to see if I'll come get it.
Yeah, but if at 60 days you find out that you can't get a FP for one of the headliners for the time you want it (or at all) but you can on a different day that week, you may consider altering your ADRs to accommodate it.
I also don't think they're banking on changing the behaviors of current frequent goers too much, but something like that may be very appealing to someone who has never been before or someone who is planning their trip less than 60 days out.
It may also be possible for guests to input certain information (ie which attractions and dining you want) and Disney spits out a customized itinerary for your dates.
Something else that just occurred to me is a possible on-site resort guest "perk." Just like they have for ADRs, 60+10 bookings for FPs.
Maybe even something like Southwest's Early Bird Check-In option. If you're a resort guest, and have dining reservations linked to your online account, you are "guaranteed" at least one headliner FP for the day you have an ADR.
I am so excited, I just can't wait for fastpass+ & I will be happier when regular FP goes away for good! I do feel kind of bad for those who feel FP+ is ruining their Disney vacation -- it's so sad for them but awesome for me! That's too bad, I really do hope they find another vacation spot to love the way I love Disney World! This post is beautifully written, logical, sound, thoughtful & insightful! I don't need to read any further so I'm going to stop here! Thank you so much!!! 
