It's fun to speculate and everyone's opinions will always differ, particularly because everyone comes from a different background with different financial situations, a different degree of love for Disney, different tipping points, etc. Disney will never make or keep everyone happy.
My thoughts:
Disney does have to do something, and now is the time to do it. Businesses nationwide are making changes, and they are using Covid as their excuse to do it. Disney isn't the only aspect of our lives that's seeing changes. They are using this time wisely, no doubt. I do think some form of paid fast pass is coming.
Crowd control is an issue in my opinion. I think it's turning away guests and leaving a bad taste in their mouth after having spent "all that money". I know it was becoming a problem for my family. On our last trip, even fast pass lines were seeing wait times upwards of 30 minutes. I would be willing to pay more to wait less. I fall into that category. But like others have said, it has to be worth it.
Maybe people don't miss FP+ right now, but I'm in the camp that when crowd/capacity levels increase, wait times will tick up and be unbearable. 20 minutes in line is one thing. 60+ minutes in line after line is not my idea of a vacation. We dish out quite a bit for our yearly Disney trips at deluxe resorts, but we'll start to choose elsewhere if crowds aren't controlled. It's not even about the money, it's just getting too busy for us. I'm willing to pay even more for a better experience the parks, and I've got to believe Disney knows this.
Will Disney eventually price out some families? Yup. Many families already are. Does Disney care? likely not. In my opinion, it makes more sense for them to cater to the guests willing to pay more. If they price out some guests, that solves some of the crowd issue and they in turn make more off the guests they keep- making more money off of fewer people while allowing them to lower operating expenses at the same time. Would it hurt them if they closed a few of the Value Resorts? My guess is no and I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see them all reopen.
My guess is going foward Fast Pass will be some form of hybrid system where there is still an included "free" option but then tiers of packages available for a premium- likely tied to on-site, value-moderate-deluxe resort level, etc. Like others have said, if you're paying for a deluxe resort, you get access to a more deluxe experience in the parks, etc. I do think it will come at a premium price though (and logically so, you can't have it be too affordable or everyone will do it and then it's pointless).
I couldn’t agree with this post more! I felt like this even before Covid. If they don’t use this time to address as many shortcomings as possible, they will have missed a golden opportunity.
Time will tell.