Until Disney releases the information, there is no way of knowing.
We can speculate and speculate and speculate, but with indications that Disney's stock is doing better and the economy is starting to bounce back a bit, they are going to be dipping their toes in the water this year and you will not see the discounts you have seen the last few years.
Also, if you look at the boards, people have posted getting pins more frequently, as well as the BB offers seem to be fairly good, as long as you were diligent enough to make sure if you didn't seen the notice in your room, you made sure you got one. I don't know why, but many people don't read the fine print, grab them thinking they will book when they get home and then find out you have to book it will you are on-site.
You have to look at the cold hard facts and when the discounts come out, they come out. Until then, it is just guessing on anyone's part and not providing any real information.