Should we buy at BRV now or wait (resale contract)

[Selizabe]

Hello,

We are planning to buy at Boulder Ridge. I've been reading a lot of the threads on here and people recommend waiting with the expectation that prices will likely drop due to the current situation. Just wondered how long people think it's worth waiting for - are we talking 4 weeks or 4 months?

Also what would you say is a good price to pay for an aprox 200pt contract at BRV. I've seen prices averaging $95-100pp. Do you expect they will fall lower than that in the coming weeks? If so by how much?

Thanks so much!

 

[Matty B13]

I would follow the ROFR thread for about a month and watch the pricing on the BRV contracts, and then make an offer that you think is fair. There is a good chance that prices will go down more in the fall, just depends on how long you want to wait.

 

[rkstocke5609]

I bought a 210 point contract in 2014 for $84/point. I suspect prices will drop, but probably closer to fall as people try to unload their contract before annual dues hit in January. Right now, dues are paid (for most owners I suspect) and so their might not be as much of a “need to sell” feeling. But, prices will drop. The other thing is, with borrowing restrictions and rumors of not opening until 2021 I really don’t know if those issues will impact your plans of using points and how these changes will effect the resale market.

 

[iheartglaciers]

I read that it took DVC resale prices about a year to hit their low during the last recession. So I definitely don’t think it’s 4 weeks. I would also guess Fall the earliest. However if you don’t want to wait that long, I think some sellers are accepting slightly lower offers now since they are eager to sell before a larger price drop.

 

[jarestel]

If I were buying a contract, I'd have a price in mind that I would be willing to pay, a use year that I wanted, and a specific number of points and once I found that contract, I'd be good to go. But if one is looking for contracts at the lowest possible prices, waiting will probably be a better option.

 

[Lorana]

I bought resale at $93/point for a 168-point contract in September 2019. While I expect prices will lower, it may not be at least till end of year (when 2021 dues start becoming due), and based on recession price drops, for another 1-2 years. If you see a contract you like, make an offer. There's no harm in making a lower offer. The contract I purchased was listed for $98/point at the time I made my offer. I expected them to counter, and was surprised when it was accepted.

 

[nagshead]

We are watching and prob going to wait a little longer. I think given the announcement and the fact that it will be a little more difficult to book the next 12-24 months, prices are prob going to take a hit on resale market. But if I see a great contract (use year I want abd number of points, I may jump on it)

 

[CastAStone]

What’s the impetus for someone to sell right now due to the virus? It’s a need for cash now. Most people who own something like DVC are likely to have some kind of extra reserve they can tap first. The exception will be people who recently bought on a whim. Those people probably mostly own the more recent properties.

Otherwise, with all the uncertainty, someone who owns DVC who is unemployed or otherwise in a tighter spot is going to want to wait and see if that’s still true until just before 2021 dues payments are due.

Therefore I think maybe 7-8 months to see meaningful price movement, if it happens. I think we may see a slow drift down on mostly the most recently sold properties in the mean time.

 

[DVC Doctor]

I would wait until November

 

[Patricksp]

I too am looking to buy as well but I am going to wait until November or December, when God forgive me when people will start to default on their DVC payments either loan or maintenance fees. I am looking at maybe buying Grand Floridian or Bay Lake. I really wonder if they will drop the price on Riviera.

 

[SL6827]

Yes, do wait. A drop in the prices was bound to happen eventually, that is just basic economics. But this could be so much more. You could possibly get a better deal than anyone ever imagined.

 

[Selizabe]

Yes, do wait. A drop in the prices was bound to happen eventually, that is just basic economics. But this could be so much more. You could possibly get a better deal than anyone ever imagined.

Thanks everyone, this is really helpful. Any predictions on how much you'd expect them to drop to/what would be a good price?

 

[PrincessDuck]

Thanks everyone, this is really helpful. Any predictions on how much you'd expect them to drop to/what would be a good price?

I have went back and have a spreadsheet with ones that passed starting in 2018. It will depend on loaded vs not and some other factors, but I would like to see it in the low 80's at least. It was as low at $85 a point a few times during that time.

 

[TandemShoehorns]

Thanks everyone, this is really helpful. Any predictions on how much you'd expect them to drop to/what would be a good price?

I have absolutely no idea what the future prices will be, or what will make a price good for you. If I could get a glimpse of the future, I would rather have a clearer understanding of how long it will take to get back to a more "normal" park experience. If the resale prices fall so low because the parks are partially closed, or people are afraid to travel, does that make it a good deal? What if next year this whole pandemic thing is gone? Magic 8 Ball says "Cannot predict now".

 

[BeachNut]

The listing price is largely irrelevant, especially in a buyer’s market. The ROFR thread is a better indication of where the market really is, as others have mentioned. I just checked and a recent BRV contract just passed ROFR for $88 pp. If I were buying right now, I certainly wouldn’t offer anything higher than that, in fact, it never hurts to offer lower than where the market is.

 

[ELMC]

Thanks everyone, this is really helpful. Any predictions on how much you'd expect them to drop to/what would be a good price?

Frankly, I think you should hold off for two reasons. First, whether we want to admit it or not, there is a very good chance that Disney won't be open until 2021 and even then, it will be very, very different. I don't know why you'd want to buy into that. Second, I'm predicting that you should be able to get BRV for about $70 a point later this year or early next. Good luck in your search.

 

[PrincessDuck]

Frankly, I think you should hold off for two reasons. First, whether we want to admit it or not, there is a very good chance that Disney won't be open until 2021 and even then, it will be very, very different. I don't know why you'd want to buy into that. Second, I'm predicting that you should be able to get BRV for about $70 a point later this year or early next. Good luck in your search.

I hope that you are wrong on the 2021 date, but understand that it is possible. $70 a point would be great and where my husband might actually let me buy more points.

 

[mlayton14]

agree on the $70 price target

 

[AaronEuth]

Anything below 90 is fair, but I wouldn't be surprised to see contracts sell in the mid 70s in the next 6 months.

Don't be afraid to read the ROFR thread and make a low offer based upon that. If you offer asking price the seller will never come back and demand you pay less. If you offer too low, sellers may counter offer with a price that makes you happy.

I will say, it is not worth worrying about the best deal. Especially on some of the older resorts. $5 a point is only a thousand dollars; less than a coffee per month over the life of your contract. I spent about 6 months trying to find the BRV point and use year combo I want. I saw it once and lowballed by $500 bucks total, meanwhile another full ask offer went through.

 

[rich dream vacations]

Just to consider the opposite view. Disney will announce it's reopening plan I am hearing by this Saturday. If there version of large theme park phase 1 and 2 is short (say one month each), then a phase 3 full parks and resorts open could be as early as August or September. If that type of plan is laid out and Disney fans feel comfortable with procedures, Disney magic normalcy and a all ready pent up demand for the brand will stall the fall of DVC resort values and by 2021 and 2022 return them to their upward price trajectory similar to 2015 to 2020 (pre corona virus).