Should I Buy Riviera?

[prs_14]

Yeah people are really going to be upset in 20 years.... The premium is generally more than 10-15% and there are no minimum number of point purchases through resale; even if it was 10% more, what are you getting for the money? I will be interested to see how many "new" dvc resorts go up in the next 20 years; I have direct points at Saratoga so can stay wherever but I would buy resale before I buy direct simply because you get basically nothing for the extra money. Right now you can't even get a Gold pass as a new owner as far as I'm aware.
Even if you love Riv I'd buy a small contract resale. the very fact that the resale market is booming may say something about inflation more than anything, but it also may say that basically no one cares about not being able to stay at riviera with their points. It's a good resort, but there are a lot of resorts that are amazing and the x number they build in the next 20 years, if they are that great, you can rent your points out and pay cash or rent points from that resort. Spending money 18 years from now is generally better than spending it today on something I may never use at a resort that doesn't even exist currently.

All very fair points. They may very well build none in 20 years. What ultimately swayed me, was that I think they will replace BCV, BWV, and BRV in 20 years and I wanted to retain access to those properties. DLT and RR are extra icing on the cake. If they build any others, great. But I wanted to make sure I could access those Epcot resorts with points bought today for the back half of my contract (25+ years).

 

[prs_14]

I think this is a very valid point. The notion of resale SAP is going to erode until it eventually goes extinct. Only direct SAP will remain. I think a lot of it has to do with what stage you are in life. Your DVC long term view is going to be a lot different if you're 30 (direct points have more value long term), than someone in their early 60's where the O14 network will hold up just fine.

Agree. As you said resale SAP will cease to exist.

And also agree it depends a lot on where you are in life. As I mentioned earlier, I want to pass this on to my kids to use with their families. In 30 years, I want them to be able to stay at the new Boardwalk. Direct is the only way to give them that.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Agree. As you said resale SAP will cease to exist.

And also agree it depends a lot on where you are in life. As I mentioned earlier, I want to pass this on to my kids to use with their families. In 30 years, I want them to be able to stay at the new Boardwalk. Direct is the only way to give them that.

What is SAP? I really need a DVC acronym dictionary. Your points about NPV and seeing it from a per point basis really got me thinking. We all are so attracted by the length of these contracts but in reality, I wonder how many people end up actually keeping it until its expiration. I guess we don't really know since DVC isn't that old. And I think that's where the true savings lie in resale. The chances are, someone who bought a contract on the resale market will likely get back what they paid for, except for the 2042 contracts. Those contracts will probably start to fall in about 10 years. Someone who buys direct at these current prices probably won't get as much back. But I still agree with your NPV view. You've swayed me. I'm never gonna buy resale again!

 

[npatellye]

What is SAP?

Sleep Around Points. Points purchased at a resort with the primary intent of being used for stays at other resorts.

 

[KTownRaider]

What is SAP?

Yes- sleep around points. Saratoga is probably the most popular example. Sorry- should have spelled it out!

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Yes- sleep around points. Saratoga is probably the most popular example. Sorry- should have spelled it out!

Ahhh right! I think you explained SAP to me before. Well, someone did. Yes! I hate Sleep Around Points! I'm more of an exclusive monogamous kind of guy. I love the resorts that I own. hehe. Except this August, I'm staying at BCV and BWV. Though, I'm using my direct CCV points that I paid an arm and a leg for, so I feel justified. I don't necessarily blame SAP owners for their strategy. It's quite smart. But I think DVC as a whole has a huge problem when you have a glut of points from SSR and AUL that take up availability at resorts that costs significantly more and are significantly small in terms of overall points.

 

[prs_14]

What is SAP? I really need a DVC acronym dictionary. Your points about NPV and seeing it from a per point basis really got me thinking. We all are so attracted by the length of these contracts but in reality, I wonder how many people end up actually keeping it until its expiration. I guess we don't really know since DVC isn't that old. And I think that's where the true savings lie in resale. The chances are, someone who bought a contract on the resale market will likely get back what they paid for, except for the 2042 contracts. Those contracts will probably start to fall in about 10 years. Someone who buys direct at these current prices probably won't get as much back. But I still agree with your NPV view. You've swayed me. I'm never gonna buy resale again!

Ha!

You are right that it’s hard to adjust for profit that could come from the timely buying and selling of contracts. Mine is a more limited “buy and hold” analysis and assumes, for example, that you pass it on to the next generation. Agree that someone using all 50 years of points is probably rare!

 

[Paul Stupin]

To the OP: if you can afford it, I would recommend that you buy direct at whichever resort you like best. On a price per point per year basis, there are several resorts that are priced (on a direct basis) in a pretty tight band. Those would include CCV, SSR, RR, PVB, OKW, VGF, BLT, AKV, and AUL. It comes down to things like specific sales incentives as well as the points charts.

It used to be that everyone would call direct buyers uneducated - making decisions with their heart on impulse instead of their head. My latest thinking is that the pendulum has swing too far the other way. Now it is the resale buyers who appear less willing to think about this critically. Resale prices have gone up considerably, and resale buyers are only looking at the upfront cost savings and assuming that is the way to go. The best perk/benefit of DVC is the ability to use points at all current and future resorts. And Disney knows this (thus the restrictions). The difference between direct and resale is typically only $1-2 per point per year. For that extra cost, you get access to ~50 years of current and brand new DVC resorts, including likely the "new" BCV, BWV, and BRV opening in ~2043 and beyond.

In the long term, the resale restrictions will affect everybody. Sure, today it does not seem that bad, but as we get closer to 2042, and therefore closer to BWV/BCV/BRV going away, fewer and fewer people are going to be interested in buying resale points, depressing the value of everyone's DVC points. In 10 years, will resale buyers be excited about 10 more years of the full slate of resorts (ex-Riviera), but then being relegated to only 7 (!) WDW resorts (CCV, SSR, PVB, OKW, VGF, BLT, and AKV) for the following 10-25 years? And, at that point, those properties will range from ~15-30 years old. The points charts will probably look great at that point due to inflation, but those resorts will be more tired/dated. New buyers will want to go direct, depressing resale prices.

With young kids, and the potential to pass this on to them in the future, I would recommend buying direct. For only $1-2 per point per year extra, they are going to be able to take their families to the newest and best resorts at Disney in 2061, rather than picking between at most three resorts (if you buy CCV resale).

I don’t think going from 10 resorts to 7 is anywhere near a deal breaker for resale. Also, since I own at CCV, it’s really going from 10 to 8. And yes, those properties will be older, but that’s why they have pretty consistent refurbs and maintenance. Also, many people, myself included, ”bought where we want to stay.” Sure, it’s great every once in a while to mix it up, but I definitely have a home resort preference that won’t be affected at all in 2042.

Also, I think the average length of ownership is about 7 years. If you sell your direct points at that time, you could very well lose a chunk of what you initially put in, whereas with resale the price might very well have gone up. And heaven forbid you sell your direct points sooner. In terms of equity, the second you buy them you’ve already lost 30-40%.

That said, I do have many direct points, and plan on buying more, specifically VGF2, in the future. And you’re right, over time they’ll be great to use at the newer resorts.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Ha!

You are right that it’s hard to adjust for profit that could come from the timely buying and selling of contracts. Mine is a more limited “buy and hold” analysis and assumes, for example, that you pass it on to the next generation. Agree that someone using all 50 years of points is probably rare!

I always considered myself as a buy and hold kind of guy, so that I could pass it onto my children. But who's to say my children would even like Disney when they grow older. And if they do, they may see my current contracts as old and unappealing, kind of the way I view VGF, which I think are for old grandmas who like Downton abbey, no offense to those who like that kind of stuff. j/k. I think MOST people go into DVC knowing there's an exit strategy. I don't think anyone wants to be standing there holding a dying contract.

 

[prs_14]

I don’t think going from 10 resorts to 7 is anywhere near a deal breaker for resale. Also, since I own at CCV, it’s really going from 10 to 8. And yes, those properties will be older, but that’s why they have pretty consistent refurbs and maintenance. Also, many people, myself included, ”bought where we want to stay.” Sure, it’s great every once in a while to mix it up, but I definitely have a home resort preference that won’t be affected at all in 2042.

Also, I think the average length of ownership is about 7 years. If you sell your direct points at that time, you could very well lose a chunk of what you initially put in, whereas with resale the price might very well have gone up. And heaven forbid you sell your direct points sooner. In terms of equity, the second you buy them you’ve already lost 30-40%.

That said, I do have many direct points, and plan on buying more, specifically VGF2, in the future. And you’re right, over time they’ll be great to use at the newer resorts.

All very good points. I guess for me it’s the difference between 11 resorts and growing versus 7 resorts and shrinking but agree that many will not see that as a deal breaker.

And you are right: if you buy resale, it’s easier to make money when you sell it again (lower cost basis). I struggle with this a little because it requires timing the market to a certain extent both on the way in and out. But if the last 12-18 months have proven anything, it’s that the value of these contracts can appreciate meaningfully if conditions are right.

 

[PinkPixel]

This is a loaded question and depends completely on your situation. How often would you go to Disney? What kind of accommodations do you prefer? How many nights a year?

If you go every year, the math clearly works in DVC's favor. For example, if you were to stay at Disney's Animation Resort (value resort) every year for a week, it would probably cost you about $200 per night (depending on the season), which would come out to $1750 per trip. In 20 years, it would cost $28,000, (assuming prices don't go up, but we all know it will so the overall cost would be much more).

If you go DVC, say you purchase a 150 point contract at Bay Lake Tower, which is a very deluxe resort. dvcresalemarket's last average price report from May lists BLT at $178pp (which is kinda high). That contract would cost you $26,700. Additionally, 20 years worth of maintenance fee would cost $20,700 (MFs will go up every year by about 2-3%). This would equate to about $2370 per trip at around $339 per night. But this would be staying at a deluxe resort instead of a value resort. Deluxe resorts tend to cost anywhere from $500-1200 per night, for a studio!!

So bottom line is, if you're ok with staying value and off property resorts, then DVC is not for you. If you like disney deluxe accommodations, then it's no brainer in my opinion.

Ive been staying at deluxe resorts for about 4 years in a row now and have young kids. However, I'm not the best at planning and sticking to vacations 11 months in advance and worry about the availability of 2 bedroom villas at the monorail resorts. What happens if you don't plan ahead and want to use your points to book a regular resort room? Thanks

 

[Paul Stupin]

Ive been staying at deluxe resorts for about 4 years in a row now and have young kids. However, I'm not the best at planning and sticking to vacations 11 months in advance and worry about the availability of 2 bedroom villas at the monorail resorts. What happens if you don't plan ahead and want to use your points to book a regular resort room? Thanks

If you don’t plan ahead, then I‘m not sure DVC would be a good purchase for you. Sounds like the 11 month advantage of booking at your home resort would be worthless. And I don’t think it’s even possible to book a regular resort room with dvc points.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Ive been staying at deluxe resorts for about 4 years in a row now and have young kids. However, I'm not the best at planning and sticking to vacations 11 months in advance and worry about the availability of 2 bedroom villas at the monorail resorts. What happens if you don't plan ahead and want to use your points to book a regular resort room? Thanks

Like Paul said, if you're not a long term planner, DVC probably isn't right for you. You could still continue to stay at DVC rooms by renting. If you still would like to plan at least at the 7 month window, SSR might be a good option. Any seasoned veteran will tell you that using DVC points to book Disney hotel rooms is not a good value. You should almost always rent your points out and pay with cash. But keep in mind, if you purchase a resale contract, you will not be able to use your points to book on the hotel side. You could only book RCI.

It seems that you have some experience staying at deluxe resorts. And I totally understand your reservation. I was in a similar boat but decided to take the plunge and haven't looked back. I love planning our disney vacations for the next 2 years. It's so much fun. Good luck to you on your decision!

 

[princetonsmom]

We just bought Riviera. We had no intention of buying anything...we were just gonna perhaps sell in a couple of years but we absolutely fell in love. It just seemed so much more relaxing than the other resorts. we loved dinner at Topolino's and Primo Piatta had some nice choices. Next time we go we'll stay in a 1BR and order Amazon Prime. I can honestly see us staying there and not going to the parks.

 

[PinkPixel]

Like Paul said, if you're not a long term planner, DVC probably isn't right for you. You could still continue to stay at DVC rooms by renting. If you still would like to plan at least at the 7 month window, SSR might be a good option. Any seasoned veteran will tell you that using DVC points to book Disney hotel rooms is not a good value. You should almost always rent your points out and pay with cash. But keep in mind, if you purchase a resale contract, you will not be able to use your points to book on the hotel side. You could only book RCI.

It seems that you have some experience staying at deluxe resorts. And I totally understand your reservation. I was in a similar boat but decided to take the plunge and haven't looked back. I love planning our disney vacations for the next 2 years. It's so much fun. Good luck to you on your decision!

Appreciate those points! Thank you

 

[Wendysofftoneverland]

Not the OP, but this has been a very interesting discussion. I have always talked myself out of DVC on all points except the emotional draw of staying in a studio at an Epcot resort during festivals. So I've sort of made it a goal to buy DVC in 5 to 6 years when the kids can't share a bed at Pop or CBR standard room. I always thought if I ever bought DVC, BWV would be my home resort, but by that time, it would have 15 years left. I love the look of OKW and WL, but Epcot is our favorite park.

I went from RIV-never to RIV-buyer last year when I did all the math myself and realized RIV wasn't that much more than BWV for our family. Your math stopped where you wanted to stop it and was not exhaustive.

Things that also need to be thought of:

• Direct perks: AP or Ticket Discounts Value

I was a RIV-never...now I am a RIV-maybe? Though nothing beats walking distance to parks, we love the Skyliner. We have other ticket discounts that we use, so the Gold AP option isn't part of the equation. But part of the DVC appeal is the ability to try out all the different resorts, which you can't do with a RIV resale contract.

RIV is a beautiful resort but it has awful resale restrictions. Wish we purchased last year with the covid price drop as i think resale will not be as much of a loss for those buyers.

Those resale restrictions! That is my number 1 reason to not buy RIV. Then I think about a smaller resale contract so I could do 50-75 RIV add on direct points.

Best of luck with your decision, OP. Lots to consider. Could you just add direct AKL points if that's what you love? Or add some direct RIV points and some AKL direct points? Do you think you might ever do split stays if different family members have different preferences?

 

[havoc315]

I think you’re right. Personally, I don’t mind the restrictions. This is probably an unpopular sentiment but I personally don’t like that cheap and plentiful Saratoga and Aulani points can take up so many reservations at the other more limited premium resorts.

This is actually a major issue and problem for trading. If all resorts were equally desirable, then there would be lots of access at 7 months all around. You'd have a Beach Club person basically trading with a Poly person, etc.
But it's a major problem that certain resorts are "less desirable" and people buy the points specifically just to trade out and sleep around. SSR, for example, has far more people trading out than trading in. Not many Grand Floridan point owners are trading their points for SSR. And this is what destroys availability once you pass the 7 month window.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

This is actually a major issue and problem for trading. If all resorts were equally desirable, then there would be lots of access at 7 months all around. You'd have a Beach Club person basically trading with a Poly person, etc.
But it's a major problem that certain resorts are "less desirable" and people buy the points specifically just to trade out and sleep around. SSR, for example, has far more people trading out than trading in. Not many Grand Floridan point owners are trading their points for SSR. And this is what destroys availability once you pass the 7 month window.

Totally agree. DVC info has a posting from 2019 that shows the breakdown of all the points in the system by resorts. Most of the desirable boutique resorts have 1-4 million points whereas Aulani has over 11 million and Saratoga has over 13 million, followed by OKW at 7 million and AKV at 5 million. I know this would be very unpopular but I’m totally ok if DVC separates these “cheaper” resorts into a separate category in their own eco system to prevent sleep around points taking over bookings in the more
Premium resorts. I mean, the DVC rental sites already do this by charging less for SSR and OKW.

 

[Tiberella626]

Not the OP, but this has been a very interesting discussion. I have always talked myself out of DVC on all points except the emotional draw of staying in a studio at an Epcot resort during festivals. So I've sort of made it a goal to buy DVC in 5 to 6 years when the kids can't share a bed at Pop or CBR standard room. I always thought if I ever bought DVC, BWV would be my home resort, but by that time, it would have 15 years left. I love the look of OKW and WL, but Epcot is our favorite park.



I was a RIV-never...now I am a RIV-maybe? Though nothing beats walking distance to parks, we love the Skyliner. We have other ticket discounts that we use, so the Gold AP option isn't part of the equation. But part of the DVC appeal is the ability to try out all the different resorts, which you can't do with a RIV resale contract.


Those resale restrictions! That is my number 1 reason to not buy RIV. Then I think about a smaller resale contract so I could do 50-75 RIV add on direct points.

Best of luck with your decision, OP. Lots to consider. Could you just add direct AKL points if that's what you love? Or add some direct RIV points and some AKL direct points? Do you think you might ever do split stays if different family members have different preferences?

DH and I both love AKL but he HATES waiting so the distance and bus service is an issue. We will also be a mid day break family due to some medical considerations our oldest son has. If I plan to do a less park heavy trip I would use my AKL points. If we will be in the parks more RIV or BLT would be my go to. BLT direct is $245 and resale (June average from DVC Resale Market) is $179.

I did look at purchasing direct for AKL but the delta between resale and direct was pretty big (we got our AKL for $125 pp and direct is $186). Average resale RIV as of June is $151 (DVC resale market June report) and we can get direct with incentives for $181. Even at $181 it's still $5 less per point than AKL and you get 13 more years. If you look at my spreadsheets from the OP I take the purchase price by total number of points in the life of the contract and get a per point cost (sorry for all the math). It's not perfect because of inflation and NPV but for comparison it worked for me.

I work in finance so I typically don't make financial decisions without a full analysis, which was the reason for my OP. I wanted a good honest discussion to see if I was missing anything. I am generally not a fan of the timeshare model but DVC is different beast. DVC rooms are always in demand and a robust resale market exists.

If I find my kids hate Disney in 10 years we can still sell our AKL contract and become food and wine pre retirees.

This discussion has largely put me at ease and no one has said I am way off base so that is comforting. Do I love the restrictions NO. Do I think it will devalue DVC as a whole long term as more DVC 2 resorts are build? YES. Is DVD looking out for the Membership? NO. Does any of that have anything to do with the value my family will receive for our use (use being operative here) of the points we will purchase? No.

Regardless if I am DVC, cash, rental, blue or white cardI have my reservations. Am I concerned about the loss of perks and other things that have made Disney stand out and be a true leader in guest and member experience? YES.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Totally agree. DVC info has a posting from 2019 that shows the breakdown of all the points in the system by resorts. Most of the desirable boutique resorts have 1-4 million points whereas Aulani has over 11 million and Saratoga has over 13 million, followed by OKW at 7 million and AKV at 5 million. I know this would be very unpopular but I’m totally ok if DVC separates these “cheaper” resorts into a separate category in their own eco system to prevent sleep around points taking over bookings in the more
Premium resorts. I mean, the DVC rental sites already do this by charging less for SSR and OKW.

You’re absolutely right. Your suggestion would indeed be very unpopular, and is a particularly ill conceived one as well. Disney has succeeded in creating a class system between direct and resale, which none of us appreciate, and I don’t think creating another one between resale contracts of various resorts, just to benefit yourself, is anywhere near a good idea. Nor is denigrating a DVC resort you don’t own.

Aulani is one of my home resorts, and frankly I think it’s Disney’s best. I don’t use it for sleep around points, because with maintenance fees and current resale pricing, it really doesn’t make much economic sense, but I’m certainly glad I have the option to. Not sure you’re aware of Aulani’s resale point cost, which has skyrocketed in the last several months.