Should I Buy Riviera?

[Tiberella626]

I am calling all you seasoned DVC owners, math nerds and hyper analyzers to help a gal out.

Here is the situation:
- We are a family of 4, 2 boys are still elementary age.
- We are in the process of buying our AKL resale but we are also looking to get that Blue Card. I was looking at Copper Creek.
- I have never been to the resort to see it, however from all the walk through blogs and whatnots I don't love it I am an ALK girl all the way.
- When we were looking at home resorts I sat my 4th grader down and asked him to do every one bedroom tour and rank them with what you like most to least. SHOCKER his absolutely loved Riviera, it was his number one for very practical reasons, sleeps 5, no pull out, larger room, clean crisp look (he is a bit of an old soul).

My Thoughts:

The Good: The location is great, 2 boys are likely going to want to be by HS and EPCOT in the next 10 years. The resort is beautiful and looks very nice, my son is right it checks a lot of boxes for our family's needs, murphy bed. The price point for a direct purchase is the biggest driver for me.

The Bad: MF seems crazy high! I am concerned about the skyliner, its not proven yet but you are pretty much paying a premium for it. Obviously, resale restrictions, even though I am not looking to resell it my concerns are, availability for owners down the line with a group of resale owner booking at 11 months and done. Could it become the resort of renters, what will that do to MF and overall vibe of resort? If Disney has trouble selling it out what will that do to MF if owners only get a slim credit for breakage? Currently I am not seeing a huge discount on the resale market given the restrictions but will that come into play more as the new car smell wears off?

I have attached my spreadsheet and I would love for someone to pick it apart. Just for background on my parameters, I was told buy our guide current owners get an additional $5 a point off with a 200 point purchase bringing it to a $181 per point purchase. I ran the current dues +5% annually over the lifetime. Use years were what my guide said "is being sold right now". This calculation has RIV beating CCV buy a hair.

I want to hear your opinions. Give it to me straight doc!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kS0OLBdAIFH7Wly-bmfCIfvznERcRgIf45y4FDfPDf0/edit?usp=sharing

 

[redboat45]

Are you wanting studios or one bedrooms that sleep 5?

That would change my advice.

 

[Sandisw]

I just want to say as a RIV owner...direct points and soon to be resale points...that booking in the 11 month home resort period will be no more difficult than any other popular resort. Where RIV owners may have a more difficult time than other owners due to resale points only being valid there is changes at 7 months. Owners with resale points will not be going anywhere so what may be open for those non home resort bookers could be less than elsewhere.

As an owner, where it could become an issue is if one does not book during home resort times. Many RIV owners are already booking SV rooms right around 11 months and the number of resale points in the system is negligible. To be honest, I don't see a large number of those for many a year. Most resorts, end up with maybe 20% of the owners resale. And remember, it only becomes resale once. If a resale owner sells it, it does not change the number of resale points in the system...just who owns them.

I can't speak for the rest of it because RIV is my number one resort. I love it and love the Skyliner and how easy it is to go to Epcot and HS. We have not yet done park opening as we tend to avoid those by 30 to 40 minutes now, but had no issues waiting long for either of those resorts at those times. Mid day was even easier!

IMO, buy where you won't mind staying as a choice. If CCV isn't calling to you, then I am not sure I would invest in that. The rooms are certainly much smaller there and as a family of 4, I'd want ones larger than smaller, especially if I was going to do a studio.

To me, the resale restrictions are overrated. While we don't know what will happen in 10 years, right now, people are buying for a decent price...much more than many of us thought with such a restricted product. I am even paying $152/point for mine when I said 2 years ago I wouldn't buy it for $50/point. How wrong I was once I realized how much I enjoy and love the resort.

Good luck!

 

[npatellye]

We also have two elementary aged children. We bought RIV at pre-opening prices, which made it cheaper than anything direct right now. But we added on direct last week at OKW because we plan on traveling at Thanksgiving every year beginning in 2022 and we cannot ever imagine doing 6-8 nights in a studio anywhere with our girls (ages 8 and 6).

I don’t think RIV dues are outrageous; OKW has similar dues, I believe.

 

[Tiberella626]

Are you wanting studios or one bedrooms that sleep 5?

That would change my advice.

One Bedroom for sure. The only time we will do a studio is if we can get a grown ups only trip.

 

[sethschroeder]

asked him to do every one bedroom tour

Did you do the matterport tours? They are out there and I have a list I can send to you if you want.

no pull out

This will change everywhere although might be in 2 years or 10 years but every resort will get this eventually.

larger room

This will not change and here is a breakdown of all the resorts by room category.

2 boys are likely going to want to be by HS and EPCOT in the next 10 years.

Really the next 40 IMO. I say this because Epcot is great for having all the festivals (unlikely to change) and for all the dining options inside Epcot which are a quick Skyliner ride away.

The price point for a direct purchase is the biggest driver for me.

I said "RIV never" but then turned around and bought because I got in at $155/point. The lower price point is great, the MFs are aligning to other resorts, and honestly even if I wanted to use my points to SAP its not that big of a deal since I got points roughly for the price of resale of the other big resorts.

MF seems crazy high

They are slowly coming in line with other resorts and will continue to do so the next 2-3 years likely. It will likely take 20-30 years for the MFs to make up the difference of the upfront purchase price.

I am concerned about the skyliner, its not proven yet but you are pretty much paying a premium for it.

The skyliner has been around for a long long time globally and the manufacturer has been around for over 100 years. It has some kinks to still work out and will be down for a week next January which should solve more issues.

Right now it does shutdown for weather but its designed (if it shares any traits with other systems) to run in lightening and winds. Disney simply is choosing to shut it down which may never change. In which case they have busses from BWV to RIV (from Epcot) or HS to RIV.

availability for owners down the line with a group of resale owner booking at 11 months and done.

Resorts typically turn over to resale 1% per year so in 30 years expect about 30% of the resort to be resale. It really is no different than other resorts where people always stay at their home resort. There might be some more limited availability. A huge positive though is the every room at Riviera is honestly bookable its not like have 30% of your points dumped in to Cabins at CCV which will go empty a large number of days.

Currently I am not seeing a huge discount on the resale market given the restrictions but will that come into play more as the new car smell wears off?

So RIV resale may drop but I put its "floor" at SSR/OKW/AKV levels. The reason being that RIV is still attached to parks via Skyliner, it has some of the largest rooms, and people will still want points for festivals which are now year round.

Use years were what my guide said "is being sold right now". This calculation has RIV beating CCV buy a hair.

RIV on pure $$$ is going to come out fairly even or just ahead of anything except SSR/OKW/AKV.

If Disney has trouble selling it out

It will sell out and is still around 60% of the points sold monthly which is a little lower than the normal 70% range but still selling. Did you know that RIV actually outsold CCV over the first 64 weeks even with 12 weeks of shutdown on the RIV side of 0 sales? RIV when from likely selling out in 2022 to maybe being 2025/26.


What you didn't call out:

• RIV has higher point requirements
• Will you use these points to consolidate? You can use the AKV points at CCV you would need to bank the AKV points to instead use RIV banked/borrowed points for when you stay there for a whole trip.
• Are YOU a Epcot fan or MK fan? Remember your kids might not be with you in the future as they stay back for sports, go off to college, ect.
• When is your next WDW visit? Could you wait it out maybe pay a tad more upfront but then really get a good idea by visiting in person? You really can't go wrong with CCV or RIV though from a resort esthetic IMO

 

[redboat45]

One Bedroom for sure. The only time we will do a studio is if we can get a grown ups only trip.

ok. So some places to consider for 1 bedrooms (and keep in mind I don't know how much all of these resorts cost direct). If you're looking for the murphy style beds vs. the pull outs SSR is undergoing a beautiful reno right now. I feel the rooms look similar to Riviera but the maintenance fees are less and the rooms cost less points. It's not on the skyliner but is very close to both Epcot and DHS anyway. It's a bigger resort and has several nice pools and is walking distance to Springs.

The other one I'd put up on the list would be BLT. It doesn't have the murphy beds (yet, that could always change in a few years) but it does have 2 bathrooms and the monorail. Maintenance is also cheaper then Riv.

But like I said I have no idea what these resorts cost direct. If RIV comes close to them in price I'd go with Riv since you'll get more years out of it (although resale price is still iffy due to the restrictions.


We own AKV and LOVE it. My daughter actually loves the pull out chair and my son doesn't complain about the pull out couch. My daughter also loved the pull out chair at BLT. My kids are 14 and 11. We also own SSR although haven't stayed there yet, but have visited and I love the resort. The kids club is awesome!

 

[sethschroeder]

It's not on the skyliner but is very close to both Epcot and DHS anyway. It's a bigger resort and has several nice pools and is walking distance to Springs.

SSR has a huge distinction of like you said being a large spread out resort with multiple bus stops and areas to the resort which is exactly opposite of the smaller, condensed, singular transportation area at RIV. It also will be the easiest to book really with any points so there is little 11 month benefit.

Also with a price point of $180 after incentives its going to be about $5-$10/point cheaper than RIV. When SSR expires in 32 years time you will still have the equivalent of a BWV contract worth of time left at RIV meaning you could likely sell the RIV contract to easily make up for any difference in MFs.

The other one I'd put up on the list would be BLT. It doesn't have the murphy beds (yet, that could always change in a few years) but it does have 2 bathrooms and the monorail. Maintenance is also cheaper then Riv.

Its going to be $44/point or more per point which is going to take around 30-40 years to make up. The point charts likely will save you some points at BLT vs RIV. With BLT though its a love it or hate it for many people with the theme at the resort.

 

[DVCsloth]

I ended up adding on at CCV instead of Riviera. I like the rooms better at Riviera but I truly love the Wilderness lodge. There are only 3 of us and we book both 1 BR and Studios. I did have some concerns with the restrictions at Riviera, but after staying there I would not hesitate to purchase. We have a trip in September for Riviera, 3 nights Standard Studio 4 nights Standard 1 BR. Haven't stayed in the 1 BR yet but really looking forward to it. Riviera is truly IMO a first class resort all the way!

 

[Tiberella626]

Did you do the matterport tours? They are out there and I have a list I can send to you if you want.



This will change everywhere although might be in 2 years or 10 years but every resort will get this eventually.



This will not change and here is a breakdown of all the resorts by room category.



Really the next 40 IMO. I say this because Epcot is great for having all the festivals (unlikely to change) and for all the dining options inside Epcot which are a quick Skyliner ride away.



I said "RIV never" but then turned around and bought because I got in at $155/point. The lower price point is great, the MFs are aligning to other resorts, and honestly even if I wanted to use my points to SAP its not that big of a deal since I got points roughly for the price of resale of the other big resorts.



They are slowly coming in line with other resorts and will continue to do so the next 2-3 years likely. It will likely take 20-30 years for the MFs to make up the difference of the upfront purchase price.



The skyliner has been around for a long long time globally and the manufacturer has been around for over 100 years. It has some kinks to still work out and will be down for a week next January which should solve more issues.

Right now it does shutdown for weather but its designed (if it shares any traits with other systems) to run in lightening and winds. Disney simply is choosing to shut it down which may never change. In which case they have busses from BWV to RIV (from Epcot) or HS to RIV.



Resorts typically turn over to resale 1% per year so in 30 years expect about 30% of the resort to be resale. It really is no different than other resorts where people always stay at their home resort. There might be some more limited availability. A huge positive though is the every room at Riviera is honestly bookable its not like have 30% of your points dumped in to Cabins at CCV which will go empty a large number of days.



So RIV resale may drop but I put its "floor" at SSR/OKW/AKV levels. The reason being that RIV is still attached to parks via Skyliner, it has some of the largest rooms, and people will still want points for festivals which are now year round.



RIV on pure $$$ is going to come out fairly even or just ahead of anything except SSR/OKW/AKV.



It will sell out and is still around 60% of the points sold monthly which is a little lower than the normal 70% range but still selling. Did you know that RIV actually outsold CCV over the first 64 weeks even with 12 weeks of shutdown on the RIV side of 0 sales? RIV when from likely selling out in 2022 to maybe being 2025/26.


What you didn't call out:

• RIV has higher point requirements
• Will you use these points to consolidate? You can use the AKV points at CCV you would need to bank the AKV points to instead use RIV banked/borrowed points for when you stay there for a whole trip.
• Are YOU a Epcot fan or MK fan? Remember your kids might not be with you in the future as they stay back for sports, go off to college, ect.
• When is your next WDW visit? Could you wait it out maybe pay a tad more upfront but then really get a good idea by visiting in person? You really can't go wrong with CCV or RIV though from a resort esthetic IMO

Point Requirement - Not a big deal I was really looking to just buy the minimum for the blue card but with the incentives at 200 points it seems like it makes "cents" to do that.
Consolidate- Likely not, 2 separate trips. 200 points will not get us a one bedroom for a week in the places we would likely stay so we will borrow and/or bank to make a trip happen every year at various resorts. Not always RIV or AKL, I would love to stay all over.
EPCOT Vs. MK - I would live in the MK (as long as I could eat somewhere else) but I do LOVE Star Wars, we have not been for GE yet but I am dying to see it. My husband would chain soarin all day if he could only taking a break for all meals at Le Cellier.
Next Trip- Not until late April of 2022

 

[Sandisw]

It's not on the skyliner but is very close to both Epcot and DHS anyway. It's a bigger resort and has several nice pools and is walking distance to Springs.

Having stayed at both RIV and SSR, there is no comparison to the transportation between the two for Epcot and HS. I have done both and we will never do buses from SSR because of how long it took. Definitely wins for MFs and ease to DS. But, the price now direct is $180 compared to RIV at $201 (without incentives)...for a contract that is 26 years longer.

Granted, if the Skyliner goes down, then you are forced to bus from both.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Why not purchase AKV direct and keep the points all where you love? $186/pt and maybe some incentives? You can then trade into Riviera with those points and of course AKV has sleeping space for 5 in all their 1BR's too except for the Value category. Sometimes it's really nice just to keep it simple. And really nice if you decide 2BR's are appealing once your kids get older.

Or you might find that CCV appeals more than you think once you're there. Designed by the same Architect as AKV and really is a lovely resort too.

 

[Gary Carter]

I'm going to be the grouchy gus that brings up that I will not buy Riviera (and this is a hill I will die on) unless they decide to change the resale restriction.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I'm going to be the grouchy gus that brings up that I will not buy Riviera (and this is a hill I will die on) unless they decide to change the resale restriction.

That is me too. Just wouldn't do it.

 

[emmymac17]

Riviera owners here - we loved the aesthetic and the connection to the Epcot/HS/Epcot area resorts as a huge plus for Riviera. If you really love AKL though - you could probably buy those points directly from Disney for the blue card for not a HUGE price difference than Riviera with discounts - sometimes having all your points at one resort may be easier (and can trade out direct points for stays at Riviera and other spots). On MFs - some pretty good analysis out there but newer resorts tend to start higher on MFs and increase at a lower pace, so may see some normalization over the years. As for the skyliner, I think Disney has invested a lot in making it work, so I don't see them abandoning it - and last time we were there it was much easier to get around on than I was expecting. You may enjoy the contrast with AKL and not having to bus everywhere

 

[Nabas]

Since you are focused on one-bedroom villas, consider that AKV-Kidani and BLT are the only 1BR that offer 2 bedrooms. That second bathroom becomes increasingly important as they age up.

Also consider 1BR are the easiest room category to book. In normal times, there's usually a few DVC resorts with 1BR available at 7 months.

Since you are already buying resale at AKV, I'm not sure what buying RIV really gets you. You mentioned wanting a Blue Card, but that's an awful expensive purchase for a Blue Card.

AKV direct currently is $186 per point. Why not buy more AKV points direct (with the same Use Year) so you can book big vacations when you want to, and still get that Blue Card you want?

Again, 1BR are the easiest to book and, over time, RIV is going to get increasingly easy to book. (Existing DVC members like to try out the new resorts but, over time, interest dies down a bit.) It almost certainly will be easier to book a RIV 1BR in 3-4 years than it is today.

 

[Tiberella626]

Since you are focused on one-bedroom villas, consider that AKV-Kidani and BLT are the only 1BR that offer 2 bedrooms. That second bathroom becomes increasingly important as they age up.

Also consider 1BR are the easiest room category to book. In normal times, there's usually a few DVC resorts with 1BR available at 7 months.

Since you are already buying resale at AKV, I'm not sure what buying RIV really gets you. You mentioned wanting a Blue Card, but that's an awful expensive purchase for a Blue Card.

AKV direct currently is $186 per point. Why not buy more AKV points direct (with the same Use Year) so you can book big vacations when you want to, and still get that Blue Card you want?

Again, 1BR are the easiest to book and, over time, RIV is going to get increasingly easy to book. (Existing DVC members like to try out the new resorts but, over time, interest dies down a bit.) It almost certainly will be easier to book a RIV 1BR in 3-4 years than it is today.

I love your one bedroom rational! I was thinking it would get harder to book as the resort fills up but from what I am learning, Resale is not a huge population and if none of the resale points can be used at RIV that should help with availability!

Thanks for your input!

 

[npatellye]

I love your one bedroom rational! I was thinking it would get harder to book as the resort fills up but from what I am learning, Resale is not a huge population and if none of the resale points can be used at RIV that should help with availability!

Thanks for your input!

So that’s kind of accurate and kind of inaccurate. Anyone who purchased resale prior to some point in January 2019 can actually use their points at RIV. It’s only anyone who purchases resale after that who cannot use their new resale points there.

I don’t have the numbers (I am sure someone here does) but I am sure the population of pre-restriction resale owners plus direct owners is large and all of those people can use those points at RIV.

You should also think about when you want to go. High demand DVC times may make it difficult to get a one bedroom for a full trip somewhere. Are you open to split stays? Are you only traveling in low demand DVC times? All things to consider.

 

[Nabas]

You should also think about when you want to go. High demand DVC times may make it difficult to get a one bedroom for a full trip somewhere. Are you open to split stays? Are you only traveling in low demand DVC times? All things to consider.

Right, always important to keep in mind that certain times of year are harder to book than others. Late September to early January are traditionally the hardest, yet over the years I still have managed to book 1BR at BRV, BCV, VGF, AKV, BWV, and BLT for Thanksgiving or Christmas. It just takes patience, flexibility, and a little luck.

And usually for August, you can have your pick of 1BR at 7 months.

 

[Tiberella626]

So that’s kind of accurate and kind of inaccurate. Anyone who purchased resale prior to some point in January 2019 can actually use their points at RIV. It’s only anyone who purchases resale after that who cannot use their new resale points there.

I don’t have the numbers (I am sure someone here does) but I am sure the population of pre-restriction resale owners plus direct owners is large and all of those people can use those points at RIV.

You should also think about when you want to go. High demand DVC times may make it difficult to get a one bedroom for a full trip somewhere. Are you open to split stays? Are you only traveling in low demand DVC times? All things to consider.

Thank you so much for saying this. In my head I was thinking resale as in people that bought RIV but anyone who owned DVC prior to January of 19 resale or direct can book it. I am glad they can, but I am now clear in my head. I am glad you could tell where my head was and you could right that ship. Thanks again!