SAP+ ?

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

So if I buy a 50pt AKV ($5000) that money could be making more in interest than the increase in dues?
So if my money is in the bank instead of spent on DVC how do I get to vacation with a savanna view??
Is this purely a financial thing where my money earning interest is better than spending on DVC? (which that is no fun)
I mean the dues will still have to be paid, so it means if I save a couple bucks up front & invest that, it’ll cover the dues later?

I guess one way of thinking about it is that the difference between AKV and BLT (so the money you saved by buying a cheaper contract), if invested well, would earn enough money to offset the much higher dues you’ll pay at AKV in 25 years. For the record, I am deeply skeptical of this, particularly because money I’m not blowing on DVC goes to DCL and ILL and TDR (need I go on?) and savings come out of a different part of our budget…though I guess we earn about 3% after tax on cash laying around while I figure what to blow it on.

The poster arguing for an aggressive time value of money still wants you to enjoy the savanna, but think you should value money today much more than money tomorrow whereas some of us think that a comparison of upfront v future savings should give relatively more weighting to money in the future, in a variety of boring technical ways… but also conceptual ways like thinking about the fact that older point charts tend to look better and better as Disney raises hotel rates, so being able to hold onto your contract has real value in the end, even discounted contemporary dollars.

 

[Chili327]

older point charts tend to look better and better as Disney raises hotel rates, so being able to hold onto your contract has real value in the end

I am starting to feel that way about the older charts, BWV climbed to the top of my list for many reasons but also made me realize how the points can be used so much better… regardless if dues are insane down the road. If they get too high I can just sell, even if at a great loss, or maybe just rent points to help cover, I just don’t feel like that is very reliable.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I am starting to feel that way about the older charts, BWV climbed to the top of my list for many reasons but also made me realize how the points can be used so much better… regardless if dues are insane down the road. If they get too high I can just sell, even if at a great loss, or maybe just rent points to help cover, I just don’t feel like that is very reliable.

Given that Disney cannot increase BWV’s point chart, I find it hard to imagine that anything could happen where you can’t rent points for well above the cost of dues. Absent some rare freak catastrophe (that is somehow not covered by insurance), I think BWV would be the least likely property in all of WDW to have that problem (again, advantage point to old, generous point chart). Even if we get a shiny new Yacht club flip or a truly new tower somewhere on the lake, you can get standard BWV rooms less than 15 points a night about half the year, they start at 9 points—that is not going to happen in new associations! VGF starts at 16 (only weeknights) and RIV has 2 months a year that are under 16 and (only on weeknights).

 

[intamin]

I guess one way of thinking about it is that the difference between AKV and BLT (so the money you saved by buying a cheaper contract), if invested well, would earn enough money to offset the much higher dues you’ll pay at AKV in 25 years. For the record, I am deeply skeptical of this, particularly because money I’m not blowing on DVC goes to DCL and ILL and TDR (need I go on?) and savings come out of a different part of our budget…though I guess we earn about 3% after tax on cash laying around while I figure what to blow it on.

The poster arguing for an aggressive time value of money still wants you to enjoy the savanna, but think you should value money today much more than money tomorrow whereas some of us think that a comparison of upfront v future savings should give relatively more weighting to money in the future, in a variety of boring technical ways… but also conceptual ways like thinking about the fact that older point charts tend to look better and better as Disney raises hotel rates, so being able to hold onto your contract has real value in the end, even discounted contemporary dollars.

I was originally writing a long comment talking about all the different factors that goes into what makes a good home resort, dues, point charts, availability, years remaining but honestly everything in one way or another cancels out with something else and I quit writing it after a paragraph and my mind was going to explode.

At the end of the day just buy the resort where you want to stay for the next 20-50 years and be done with it.

 

[aammtt20]

I was originally writing a long comment talking about all the different factors that goes into what makes a good home resort, dues, point charts, availability, years remaining but honestly everything in one way or another cancels out with something else and I quit writing it after a paragraph and my mind was going to explode.

At the end of the day just buy the resort where you want to stay for the next 20-50 years and be done with it.

Honestly, my calculus of trying to choose two resale resorts led me to same answers (maybe we should call this the path of enlightenment). Ended up with AKV and CCV to use both at SAP+, but also just because both resorts felt like the perfect for how we want to do WDW and because I find them both amazing.

 

[AstroBlasters]

At the end of the day just buy the resort where you want to stay for the next 20-50 years and be done with it.

Every Grand Cal owner eventually reaches this conclusion.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Every Grand Cal owner eventually reaches this conclusion.

Haha, the one thing we should all be able to agree on is that there is no time value of money discount rate at which VGC points are good for SAP!

 

[intamin]

Every Grand Cal owner eventually reaches this conclusion.

Grand Cal only needs 3 words to justify that price: dedicated park entrance

 

[BuzzLightyr]

I am starting to feel that way about the older charts, BWV climbed to the top of my list for many reasons but also made me realize how the points can be used so much better… regardless if dues are insane down the road. If they get too high I can just sell, even if at a great loss, or maybe just rent points to help cover, I just don’t feel like that is very reliable.

I love the value of Boardwalk and the point chart there. You need to own at Boardwalk to get the standard villas or the boardwalk view villas.

Just like beach club, GFV, GCV etc where you pay more per point to get home resort priority, these make them really expensive to use elsewhere and "sleep around".

Boardwalk points come at a premium to other 2042 resorts including Boulder Ridge and Animal Kingdom. The cheaper points make it a better value to use at 7 months somewhere else, like BLT.

 

[BrianLo]

I was originally writing a long comment talking about all the different factors that goes into what makes a good home resort, dues, point charts, availability, years remaining but honestly everything in one way or another cancels out with something else and I quit writing it after a paragraph and my mind was going to explode.

At the end of the day just buy the resort where you want to stay for the next 20-50 years and be done with it.

So not one that expires in 17 years. Lmao.

I see what you did there, I do agree.

 

[BrianLo]

I guess one way of thinking about it is that the difference between AKV and BLT (so the money you saved by buying a cheaper contract), if invested well, would earn enough money to offset the much higher dues you’ll pay at AKV in 25 years. For the record, I am deeply skeptical of this, particularly because money I’m not blowing on DVC goes to DCL and ILL and TDR (need I go on?) and savings come out of a different part of our budget…though I guess we earn about 3% after tax on cash laying around while I figure what to blow it on.

The poster arguing for an aggressive time value of money still wants you to enjoy the savanna, but think you should value money today much more than money tomorrow whereas some of us think that a comparison of upfront v future savings should give relatively more weighting to money in the future, in a variety of boring technical ways… but also conceptual ways like thinking about the fact that older point charts tend to look better and better as Disney raises hotel rates, so being able to hold onto your contract has real value in the end, even discounted contemporary dollars.

Agreed, I think the point becomes a lot more valid if we are talking about posters who do not have vacation discretionary spend, or unused room in tax deferred or tax-free investable accounts. Or technically worst of all - take out a loan. Then the crazy discount rates start to apply.

I hate to call DVC an investment. But they are really a vacation hedge against inflation if you anticipate reliably spending the money anyways. Plus, if you have the means and are willing to 'walk away' after 20 years and treat it also partially like an investment, the 40 year contracts have a heck of a lot more potential...

 

[intamin]

So not one that expires in 17 years. Lmao.

I see what you did there, I do agree.

I was so frustrated with how much I had typed and how much my mind was going back and forth and making arguments for each resort and it really was not a coherent statement that I didn't even care to specify 17. You guys remember that feeling when you would write an essay and you're writing a lot and then you realize you have no idea what you're talking about anymore half way through and the best thing to do is to scrap the whole thing? That was me. lol

 

[Chili327]

You guys remember that feeling when you would write an essay and you're writing a lot and then you realize you have no idea what you're talking about anymore half way through and the best thing to do is to scrap the whole thing? That was me. lol

Remember.??
How could I forget, It happens every week. lol

 

[Mikey15]

So not one that expires in 17 years. Lmao.

I see what you did there, I do agree.

I was honestly surprised at how well HHI and newly under-$100 BRV (VWL) do in these charts, especially when you add any discount factor at all. Not that either are #1 by any stretch, but a below-average price or loaded contract on one of those can actually give an “okay” SAP+ deal, assuming you like either of those resorts.

That’s despite only having 18 years of points!

 

[intamin]

I was honestly surprised at how well HHI and newly under-$100 BRV (VWL) do in these charts, especially when you add any discount factor at all. Not that either are #1 by any stretch, but a below-average price or loaded contract on one of those can actually give an “okay” SAP+ deal, assuming you like either of those resorts.

That’s despite only having 18 years of points!

I didn't analyze the chart people posted in depth but I'd be wary of purchasing HHI for SAP just because of the risk of natural disasters and the dues are already extremely high. I don't know if it takes into account CAGR of the dues and I'd probably base it on the past 5-10 years or so. Maybe you could do a small one if you really love staying there but I don't know

 

[Tatebeck]

Yeah the 7% chart looks pretty much what I would have expected and IMO better than the 10%. I would also avoid the 2042 beach resorts, unless I actually wanted to stay there regularly.

I wanted resorts close to parks, that I wanted to stay at and SAP+ but didn't want a resort that I would feel "stuck" at come 2042 and after when the original 14 resort options slim down, so I avoided SSR. So I got decent deals at BLT and AKV, both in the top 5 on that chart for my SAP+. Then I got a good deal on BWV for my Epcot resort with low point charts. And recently I bought VGC for Disneyland access. Soon I may add some direct "SAP+"-ish points at RIV for long term SAP+, points I can rent out to pay for some of my dues, a second Epcot resort that I can use once BWV expires no matter what they do with BWV and BCV, and long term direct benefits through 2070. Then I may be done with points for a while...

unless a really great BCV deal pops up... Or a firesale on VDH/a new amazing DL resort down the line...

edit: or maybe a great deal on a medium Aulani contract... lolol

 

[BuzzLightyr]

Yeah the 7% chart looks pretty much what I would have expected and IMO better than the 10%. I would also avoid the 2042 beach resorts, unless I actually wanted to stay there regularly.

I wanted resorts close to parks, that I wanted to stay at and SAP+ but didn't want a resort that I would feel "stuck" at come 2042 and after when the original 14 resort options slim down, so I avoided SSR. So I got decent deals at BLT and AKV, both in the top 5 on that chart for my SAP+. Then I got a good deal on BWV for my Epcot resort with low point charts. And recently I bought VGC for Disneyland access. Soon I may add some direct "SAP+"-ish points at RIV for long term SAP+, points I can rent out to pay for some of my dues, a second Epcot resort that I can use once BWV expires no matter what they do with BWV and BCV, and long term direct benefits through 2070. Then I may be done with points for a while...

unless really great BCV deal pops up... Or a firesale on VDH/a new amazing DL resort down the line...

edit: or maybe a great deal on a medium Aulani contract... lolol

This line of thinking is how we get to the 1,000 point club. Are you sure you don't want a beach resort on the east coast? I love your portfolio of points and am thankful I am too far away from DL to consider VGC

 

[Mikey15]

I didn't analyze the chart people posted in depth but I'd be wary of purchasing HHI for SAP just because of the risk of natural disasters and the dues are already extremely high. I don't know if it takes into account CAGR of the dues and I'd probably base it on the past 5-10 years or so. Maybe you could do a small one if you really love staying there but I don't know

As an east coast driver, I always find myself trying to rationalize a stop at HHI on the way down or back from CFL/WDW. It’s a leisurely 6 hours between the two on a check-in or check-out day. That and the low cost of entry (and the occasional owner seemingly willing to dump it to get out of the dues) make it tempting.

But I also know it’s a lot of points to stay just a night or two there, compared to utilizing the points at WDW and just getting cash hotel rooms on the drive. Or doing a proper beachfront stay somewhere in HHI, Myrtle, even Virginia Beach. And now we’ve also taken a liking to the Emerald Coast so our route may be permanently changed to jog west to the Gulf instead.

That’s my problem with Aulani for SAP+ too after all… I know I’m only rarely going to be willing to do the flights and pay the airfare even though I’d love to make it there!

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

As an east coast driver, I always find myself trying to rationalize a stop at HHI on the way down or back from CFL/WDW. It’s a leisurely 6 hours between the two on a check-in or check-out day. That and the low cost of entry (and the occasional owner seemingly willing to dump it to get out of the dues) make it tempting.

But I also know it’s a lot of points to stay just a night or two there, compared to utilizing the points at WDW and just getting cash hotel rooms on the drive. Or doing a proper beachfront stay somewhere in HHI, Myrtle, even Virginia Beach. And now we’ve also taken a liking to the Emerald Coast so our route may be permanently changed to jog west to the Gulf instead.

That’s my problem with Aulani for SAP+ too after all… I know I’m only rarely going to be willing to do the flights and pay the airfare even though I’d love to make it there!

Doing this for the first time this fall.

40 points for 4 nights in a studio isn't too bad.

 

[Mikey15]

Doing this for the first time this fall.

40 points for 4 nights in a studio isn't too bad.

Ooh. I was looking in May-Aug so studios were as high as 23 a night! 40 for 4 nights is a completely different story!