S/O Timeshares Thread - The Next Big Recession

[MillauFr]

There will definitely be a major recession, and soon (within the next couple years).

One major indicator has been home sales in typically hot markets like Southern CA. Home sales have fallen the last couple quarters and the experts say that this may be a huge warning sign for the rest of the country as a whole. When the hot real estate markets start stagnating, it's a bad sign. Of course, it is just one indicator, but it has held up as an accurate predictor for the past several recessions.

No one has any idea when the next major recession will happen. Anyone who claims they can predict is probably trying to sell you a book or financial services.

 

[MillauFr]

The recession officially ended late in 2009. The recovery has been weak and uneven, so it felt like longer in a lot of places, but it has been more than a decade since the start of the last recession which is one of the reasons some feel like we're "due" for the next one.

We haven't had a major recession in the Puget Sound region is almost 50 years. All the nattering nabobs of negativity keep predicting one but all we get are minor slow downs for a few years and the economy starts taking off again. The state government keeps trying to spread out economic growth around the state but it hasn't been too successful.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

1 to 2% growth is not great.

5 of the 8 years it was over 2%, In only 3 of the years was it 1 to 2% That's twice now you've been factually incorrect. Again you're entitled to your own opinion. But you aren't entitled to your own facts.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

No one has any idea when the next major recession will happen. Anyone who claims they can predict is probably trying to sell you a book or financial services.

You'll get a kick out of this quote.

Stock prices have reached a permanently high plateau. Irving Fisher. Early October, 1929.

Nobody can predict exactly when these things will happen.

 

[cruiser21]

5 of the 8 years it was over 2%, In only 3 of the years was it 1 to 2% That's twice now you've been factually incorrect. Again you're entitled to your own opinion. But you aren't entitled to your own facts.

2% is not good. In the 60's and 70's it was over 4% and 80's and 90's over 3%. Sorry but 2% average growth over a 10 year period is not good. Is it going to be better the next 10 years? I don't know...but I'm hoping. I would think everyone would hope for a that.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

2% is not good. In the 60's and 70's it was over 4% and 80's and 90's over 3%. Sorry but 2% average growth over a 10 year period is not good. Is it going to be better the next 10 years? I don't know...but I'm hoping. I would think everyone would hope for a that.

Whether two percent is good or bad is an opinion. You're entitled to that whatever it may be. But you've been wrong twice on your facts.

 

[cruiser21]

Nobody is challenging your opinion. You've been wrong twice on your facts.

I think you are wrong on your facts. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017...resident-history-never-have-year-3-gdp-growth

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

I think you are wrong on your facts. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017...resident-history-never-have-year-3-gdp-growth

You said it was one to two. Over 2.0 which it was in 5 of he last 8 years is not one to two. It is in fact over 2. You were wrong on the facts your attempt to move the goal post to 3.0 from 2.0 in your statement notwithstanding.

That's twice now you've been completely wrong and tried to move the goal post when you were called on it. As such, I'll engage in conversation with someone else. Good Night.

 

[cruiser21]

You said it was one to two. Over 2.0 which it was in 5 of he last 8 years is not one to two. It is in fact over 2. You were wrong on the facts your attempt to move the goal post to 3.0 from 2.0 in your statement notwithstanding.

That's twice now you've been completely wrong and tried to move the goal post when you were called on it. As such, I'll engage in conversation with someone else. Good Night.

Yes 3 or 4 percent for one quarter is great, but we need sustained growth over a period of time. I'm guessing you didn't read the article. In 2016 the GDP was 1.6% tps://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/28/second-estimate-of-us-q4-2016-gdp.htm GDP has been up and down the last 10 years. If you think this is the best the US can do that's fine. I'm hoping for better.

 

[FlightlessDuck]

No one has any idea when the next major recession will happen. Anyone who claims they can predict is probably trying to sell you a book or financial services.

To be fair, an inverted yield curve has been a really good indicator.